Return to Transcripts main page
American Morning
Interview With Peter Brooks of the Heritage Foundation
Aired April 23, 2003 - 09:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: What's next, though, for U.S. troops in Iraq as military action continues to wind down there? Live to the White House front lawn, and Dana Bash watching things there. I'm wondering right now, Dana, about the signal from the White House concerning its plans for the future in that country. What are you hearing?
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the plans are, right now, to focus on Iraq, rebuilding, getting a new government in place. But Bill, what is interesting is that there has been a lot of speculation as war has basically ended in Iraq, or is getting very close to it, speculation as to what country would be next on America's military target list, whether or not North Korea or Iran, other members of the president's "axis of evil" would be next, perhaps Syria. There's been very tough rhetoric coming from the White House on Syria. But the White House -- the president in particular, is trying to tone down the rhetoric and make clear that at this point, he has no one on his military target list next.
In a conversation with some magazine reporters yesterday, he said -- quote -- "I have no specific operation in mind at this point in time. I can't think of a specific moment or a specific incident that would require military action as we speak. So clearly, they trying to tone down fears, particularly in the Middle East at this time.
HEMMER: Dana, what are you hearing about these reports that indicate perhaps the White House did not properly read the Shiite population reaction in Iraq? We know they dominate the majority of the population there. Shiites suggesting perhaps the new government could be founded as an Islamic state. Reaction there in D.C. is what to this?
BASH: Now, Bill, I talked to a couple of administration officials about that this morning who were really trying to play down that report saying of course they anticipated that once you had a dictator gone, that the pictures like we're seeing now would certainly happen. You would have people who are, as one official said, breathing the first breath of freedom, you would see this. But in terms of a government, they are and the calls for an Islamic state, the administration clearly wants to focus on a democracy.
Some officials pointing out the fact that last week in a meeting in Nasiriya, the first meeting of a potential new government, they said that they certainly want a democracy. So they are saying that democracy is their plan, and they also noted that just because the government might have some religion involved in it doesn't mean it can't be democratic -- Bill. HEMMER: Dana, thanks. Dana Bash, front lawn of the White House -- Heidi.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: After months of waving fists at each other, the United States and North Korea are talking. Officials from the two countries, along with officials from China met in Beijing today. It is the first of three days of meetings intended to diffuse the standoff. What might the talks accomplish?
Peter Brooks is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs. Quite a title there, Peter. And he is now with the Heritage Foundation. He is in New Orleans this morning.
Peter, I want to ask you, do you expect much saber rattling at least in the initial talks here? Do you think North Korea will actually agree to discontinue their nuclear weapons program?
PETER BROOKS, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Well, I think we should keep our expectations quite modest for these rounds of talks. Remember, this is the first direct talks we've had with them in six months, since Jim Kelly was there last October, and the first real talks we've had about this issue in this administration. So I think we need to keep our expectations very modest for this first round of talks.
COLLINS: Well, don't want to jump too far ahead, then, in the next question, but I'm wondering if you think the U.S. should handle this situation, if they don't agree to diffuse this program, then should they go in with military action, talking about the U.S. here?
BROOKS: No, I don't think so. I think that is down the road. The president has said, rightfully so, that we should look for a diplomatic solution here. We still have that. That is how this differs very much from Iraq. I mean, Saddam Hussein was not reaching out for diplomatic solutions to his weapons of mass destruction program, but North Korea has been calling. The United States has been able to get North Korea into a multilateral framework here, initially with China, then hopefully later on, they'll bring in South Korea and Japan and possibly -- possibly Russia. But I think we have a long way to go yet, diplomatically, before we look at taking military action, although we should always keep the military option on the table.
COLLINS: You know personally both the U.S. negotiator in this, and his North Korean counterpart. Tell us a little bit about James Kelly and the personalities and what might come into play here as they do try to negotiate.
BROOKS: Well, Jim is a terrific Asia hand (ph). He was my counterpart when I was at the Pentagon, and he's the right man for the job. He's been involved with Asian affairs for 20, 25 years. He knows the North Korean situation very well, and he is the right guy on the American side. The difference on the other side is that they have put in Li Gun, as opposed to Kim Jae Gwan (ph). Kim Jae Gwan (ph) is what we would call the usual barbarian handler, the person who handles the foreigners, especially the United States, and he's not playing this time. This time they have Li Gun. He is interesting. He was the deputy rep in New York at the North Korean mission to the United Nations.
You know, we don't have diplomatic relations with North Korea, so they don't have an embassy in Washington, but they have a mission in New York to the United Nations, and he was there, and he recently returned to North Korea. It's interesting that some people think he's lower than Jim Kelly, that Kim -- that Jim should actually be dealing with Kim Jae Guan (ph), but I have heard rumors, and I know Li Gun. I have met him. In fact, I met him a number of times before I went to North Korea a few years ago. He supposedly has close ties into the Kim Jong Il family. I'm not quite sure exactly how that is. So he may actually have some more influence. And having spent a long time in the United States and New York, he understands the Americans. So I wouldn't be too concerned about the personalities. I would be concerned more about the important interests that both countries have on the table.
COLLINS: You said that the threat in North Korea could actually make the war in Iraq and the conflict there look like child's play. Why?
BROOKS: Well, North Korea is a much bigger military machine. I don't want to downplay it. I mean, child's play -- war is never child's play, but I suppose that's one way of looking at it. North Korea has a military of 1.1 million men. Saddam Hussein had an army of about 300,000. North Korea has 10,000 artillery tubes trained on Seoul. Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is 25 miles south of the demilitarized zone, the DMZ. And in the early hours of the war, it is believed that North Korea could rain down 500,000 rounds of artillery, including maybe chemical weapons into Seoul. Seoul is the home -- the metropolitan Seoul area is the home to 25 to 35 million people, and there are estimates out there that in the initial days of the conflict, 1 million people could perish.
COLLINS: A very different conflict indeed. All right. Peter Brooks, thanks so much for being with us this morning from Heritage Foundation.
BROOKS: Thank you, Heidi.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 23, 2003 - 09:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: What's next, though, for U.S. troops in Iraq as military action continues to wind down there? Live to the White House front lawn, and Dana Bash watching things there. I'm wondering right now, Dana, about the signal from the White House concerning its plans for the future in that country. What are you hearing?
DANA BASH, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, the plans are, right now, to focus on Iraq, rebuilding, getting a new government in place. But Bill, what is interesting is that there has been a lot of speculation as war has basically ended in Iraq, or is getting very close to it, speculation as to what country would be next on America's military target list, whether or not North Korea or Iran, other members of the president's "axis of evil" would be next, perhaps Syria. There's been very tough rhetoric coming from the White House on Syria. But the White House -- the president in particular, is trying to tone down the rhetoric and make clear that at this point, he has no one on his military target list next.
In a conversation with some magazine reporters yesterday, he said -- quote -- "I have no specific operation in mind at this point in time. I can't think of a specific moment or a specific incident that would require military action as we speak. So clearly, they trying to tone down fears, particularly in the Middle East at this time.
HEMMER: Dana, what are you hearing about these reports that indicate perhaps the White House did not properly read the Shiite population reaction in Iraq? We know they dominate the majority of the population there. Shiites suggesting perhaps the new government could be founded as an Islamic state. Reaction there in D.C. is what to this?
BASH: Now, Bill, I talked to a couple of administration officials about that this morning who were really trying to play down that report saying of course they anticipated that once you had a dictator gone, that the pictures like we're seeing now would certainly happen. You would have people who are, as one official said, breathing the first breath of freedom, you would see this. But in terms of a government, they are and the calls for an Islamic state, the administration clearly wants to focus on a democracy.
Some officials pointing out the fact that last week in a meeting in Nasiriya, the first meeting of a potential new government, they said that they certainly want a democracy. So they are saying that democracy is their plan, and they also noted that just because the government might have some religion involved in it doesn't mean it can't be democratic -- Bill. HEMMER: Dana, thanks. Dana Bash, front lawn of the White House -- Heidi.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: After months of waving fists at each other, the United States and North Korea are talking. Officials from the two countries, along with officials from China met in Beijing today. It is the first of three days of meetings intended to diffuse the standoff. What might the talks accomplish?
Peter Brooks is the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs. Quite a title there, Peter. And he is now with the Heritage Foundation. He is in New Orleans this morning.
Peter, I want to ask you, do you expect much saber rattling at least in the initial talks here? Do you think North Korea will actually agree to discontinue their nuclear weapons program?
PETER BROOKS, HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Well, I think we should keep our expectations quite modest for these rounds of talks. Remember, this is the first direct talks we've had with them in six months, since Jim Kelly was there last October, and the first real talks we've had about this issue in this administration. So I think we need to keep our expectations very modest for this first round of talks.
COLLINS: Well, don't want to jump too far ahead, then, in the next question, but I'm wondering if you think the U.S. should handle this situation, if they don't agree to diffuse this program, then should they go in with military action, talking about the U.S. here?
BROOKS: No, I don't think so. I think that is down the road. The president has said, rightfully so, that we should look for a diplomatic solution here. We still have that. That is how this differs very much from Iraq. I mean, Saddam Hussein was not reaching out for diplomatic solutions to his weapons of mass destruction program, but North Korea has been calling. The United States has been able to get North Korea into a multilateral framework here, initially with China, then hopefully later on, they'll bring in South Korea and Japan and possibly -- possibly Russia. But I think we have a long way to go yet, diplomatically, before we look at taking military action, although we should always keep the military option on the table.
COLLINS: You know personally both the U.S. negotiator in this, and his North Korean counterpart. Tell us a little bit about James Kelly and the personalities and what might come into play here as they do try to negotiate.
BROOKS: Well, Jim is a terrific Asia hand (ph). He was my counterpart when I was at the Pentagon, and he's the right man for the job. He's been involved with Asian affairs for 20, 25 years. He knows the North Korean situation very well, and he is the right guy on the American side. The difference on the other side is that they have put in Li Gun, as opposed to Kim Jae Gwan (ph). Kim Jae Gwan (ph) is what we would call the usual barbarian handler, the person who handles the foreigners, especially the United States, and he's not playing this time. This time they have Li Gun. He is interesting. He was the deputy rep in New York at the North Korean mission to the United Nations.
You know, we don't have diplomatic relations with North Korea, so they don't have an embassy in Washington, but they have a mission in New York to the United Nations, and he was there, and he recently returned to North Korea. It's interesting that some people think he's lower than Jim Kelly, that Kim -- that Jim should actually be dealing with Kim Jae Guan (ph), but I have heard rumors, and I know Li Gun. I have met him. In fact, I met him a number of times before I went to North Korea a few years ago. He supposedly has close ties into the Kim Jong Il family. I'm not quite sure exactly how that is. So he may actually have some more influence. And having spent a long time in the United States and New York, he understands the Americans. So I wouldn't be too concerned about the personalities. I would be concerned more about the important interests that both countries have on the table.
COLLINS: You said that the threat in North Korea could actually make the war in Iraq and the conflict there look like child's play. Why?
BROOKS: Well, North Korea is a much bigger military machine. I don't want to downplay it. I mean, child's play -- war is never child's play, but I suppose that's one way of looking at it. North Korea has a military of 1.1 million men. Saddam Hussein had an army of about 300,000. North Korea has 10,000 artillery tubes trained on Seoul. Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is 25 miles south of the demilitarized zone, the DMZ. And in the early hours of the war, it is believed that North Korea could rain down 500,000 rounds of artillery, including maybe chemical weapons into Seoul. Seoul is the home -- the metropolitan Seoul area is the home to 25 to 35 million people, and there are estimates out there that in the initial days of the conflict, 1 million people could perish.
COLLINS: A very different conflict indeed. All right. Peter Brooks, thanks so much for being with us this morning from Heritage Foundation.
BROOKS: Thank you, Heidi.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
