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American Morning
Money & Politics
Aired April 24, 2003 - 09:43 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: We are just moments away from President Bush's speech on the economy. We've been telling you about it all morning. There has been talk in political circles about a "New York Times" story that said the Bush campaign is planning a nominating convention late next year. That would put it right around the eve of September 11th anniversary. Democrats accuse the White House of playing politics. Republicans deny it.
But the real story about the timing of next year's campaign, may be about money.
Our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield to talk to us about that.
So what is this all about?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Well, a lot of people think it's really early to be talking about presidential campaigns and I'm in agreement with them.
But there is one exception. While it's the fault of the political media industry that can't wait for campaigns to begin so we'll something to talk about, there is a sense of an important dynamic about next year's campaign, and that is clear, and that is the enormous advantage that President Bush will have in terms how much money and when he can spend it.
Now remember, until the president is formally renominated, he's a candidate for the Republican nomination, even in no one is running against him, and we've seen what happens when an incumbent uses that time to go after his opponent. Back in 1996, President Clinton raised millions of dollars to target Senator Bob Dole, and all spring he ran ads that linked Dole to the increasingly unpopular Republican leadership in Congress -- ads like this one:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: President Clinton cuts taxes for millions working families, proposes tax credits for college. A Dole, Gingrich tried to raise taxes on eight million, but next year, if Newt Gingrich controls Congress, and his partner, Bob Dole, enters Oval Office, there will be nobody there to stop them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GREENFIELD: Now a lot of that money that Clinton raised was so- called soft money that couldn't be used to directly call for Clinton's renomination or re-election, but next year, President Bush will likely raise as much as $200 million in so-called hard money. That's in contributions of $2,000 or less.
Now because advance calendar, primaries are coming up earlier next year, we'll likely know the Democratic nominee by mid-March, and that means the Bush campaign can keep using this unlimited money up until his formal renomination. Once that happens, both parties are governed by a $75 million limit.
COLLINS: So then why can't the Democratic nominee do just the same thing?
GREENFIELD: Because all of them, with one possible exception, are expected to use public financing to run their primary campaigns, and that means very the have to abide by very sharp spending limits.
So the likelihood is the Democratic nominee will have spent just about all of his money by the time he's nominated in March, in effect nominated, and that leaves only the Democratic National Committee to pay for months of pre-convention ads. Now there is one possible exception, Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, whose wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, has about $550 million left to her by her late husband, Senator John Heinz, of Heinz Food wealth, and Kerry has not completely ruled out ice using that money. But you can see the dilemma for the Democrats, having a nominee in March, months go by, and President Bush uses money for his -- quote -- renomination, to go after the Democrat.
COLLINS: I have one more question for you here -- the Republican Party chairman is sending out this memo, saying that Bush's approval rating may take a big dip pretty soon. What is that all about? Are they taking it seriously?
GREENFIELD: Well, it just that this is also a reaction, to the media's absolute inability to not get hysterical about every change in polling numbers. This is just one of the diseases we suffer from. What He's saying is, as you get into primary campaign, whoever the Democratic candidate is that gets attention, starts moving up in the polls, and he's telling Republicans don't panic when you see Democratic nominee, even with Bush, close to Bush, it may not mean all that much.
COLLINS: Because we've seen it before.
GREENFIELD: We see it all of the time, and some day, perhaps, when the Messiah comes, as my people say, we journalists will start -- learn not to overreact to it, but I doubt it.
COLLINS: Good point. All right, Jeff Greenfield, thank you so much today.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired April 24, 2003 - 09:43 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: We are just moments away from President Bush's speech on the economy. We've been telling you about it all morning. There has been talk in political circles about a "New York Times" story that said the Bush campaign is planning a nominating convention late next year. That would put it right around the eve of September 11th anniversary. Democrats accuse the White House of playing politics. Republicans deny it.
But the real story about the timing of next year's campaign, may be about money.
Our senior analyst Jeff Greenfield to talk to us about that.
So what is this all about?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Well, a lot of people think it's really early to be talking about presidential campaigns and I'm in agreement with them.
But there is one exception. While it's the fault of the political media industry that can't wait for campaigns to begin so we'll something to talk about, there is a sense of an important dynamic about next year's campaign, and that is clear, and that is the enormous advantage that President Bush will have in terms how much money and when he can spend it.
Now remember, until the president is formally renominated, he's a candidate for the Republican nomination, even in no one is running against him, and we've seen what happens when an incumbent uses that time to go after his opponent. Back in 1996, President Clinton raised millions of dollars to target Senator Bob Dole, and all spring he ran ads that linked Dole to the increasingly unpopular Republican leadership in Congress -- ads like this one:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: President Clinton cuts taxes for millions working families, proposes tax credits for college. A Dole, Gingrich tried to raise taxes on eight million, but next year, if Newt Gingrich controls Congress, and his partner, Bob Dole, enters Oval Office, there will be nobody there to stop them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GREENFIELD: Now a lot of that money that Clinton raised was so- called soft money that couldn't be used to directly call for Clinton's renomination or re-election, but next year, President Bush will likely raise as much as $200 million in so-called hard money. That's in contributions of $2,000 or less.
Now because advance calendar, primaries are coming up earlier next year, we'll likely know the Democratic nominee by mid-March, and that means the Bush campaign can keep using this unlimited money up until his formal renomination. Once that happens, both parties are governed by a $75 million limit.
COLLINS: So then why can't the Democratic nominee do just the same thing?
GREENFIELD: Because all of them, with one possible exception, are expected to use public financing to run their primary campaigns, and that means very the have to abide by very sharp spending limits.
So the likelihood is the Democratic nominee will have spent just about all of his money by the time he's nominated in March, in effect nominated, and that leaves only the Democratic National Committee to pay for months of pre-convention ads. Now there is one possible exception, Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, whose wife, Teresa Heinz Kerry, has about $550 million left to her by her late husband, Senator John Heinz, of Heinz Food wealth, and Kerry has not completely ruled out ice using that money. But you can see the dilemma for the Democrats, having a nominee in March, months go by, and President Bush uses money for his -- quote -- renomination, to go after the Democrat.
COLLINS: I have one more question for you here -- the Republican Party chairman is sending out this memo, saying that Bush's approval rating may take a big dip pretty soon. What is that all about? Are they taking it seriously?
GREENFIELD: Well, it just that this is also a reaction, to the media's absolute inability to not get hysterical about every change in polling numbers. This is just one of the diseases we suffer from. What He's saying is, as you get into primary campaign, whoever the Democratic candidate is that gets attention, starts moving up in the polls, and he's telling Republicans don't panic when you see Democratic nominee, even with Bush, close to Bush, it may not mean all that much.
COLLINS: Because we've seen it before.
GREENFIELD: We see it all of the time, and some day, perhaps, when the Messiah comes, as my people say, we journalists will start -- learn not to overreact to it, but I doubt it.
COLLINS: Good point. All right, Jeff Greenfield, thank you so much today.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
