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American Morning
Iran Violence
Aired June 16, 2003 - 09:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Tehran's government claims the U.S. is behind those protests. Geneive Abdo has written a book, along with her husband, about the struggle for power in Iran. It's called "Answering Only to God." She is our guests right now, live in D.C.
Good morning to you, and, Geneive, good to have you here on AMERICAN MORNING.
I want to know with are the forces at work right now in a lot of university towns throughout that country, is that enough to bring out change?
GENEIVE ABDO, JOURNALIST: Well, certainly every time there are protests in Iran and there is some sort of expression to the opposition to the regime, this moves the whole process forward.
But I think that it's a huge misunderstanding of Iranian politics to assume that there's some sort of revolution that will happen in the near future.
HEMMER: Why do you say that? The force is not that strong yet?
ABDO: Well, if you look at the students who are demonstrating, for example, they're not very numerous. They're few in numbers, and also despite the fact that these protests have really been going on since 1999, the students really haven't managed to create a broad- based coalition across Iranian society, which would be necessary to bring about a revolution.
HEMMER: In this country, we get the impression that just about every young person in the country wants to change. Seventy percent of the population is under the age of 30. What are the facts under the age of 30 about how much they truly want a major transformation in their country?
ABDO: They want a major transformation. That's for certain. They want more freedom, as you mentioned in your report. They want a free press, they want a pluralistic political system, but they don't want this kind of change to happen during some sort of revolution. And during the three years I was a correspondent in Iran, Iranians made this very clear, even the most radical students and the most radical dissidents; they really believe that the country can create change on its own in a gradual way, not the kind of internal rebellion that the Bush administration is talking about.
So I think it's important not to confuse two issues. Yes, the Iranians want change, and yes, there's likely to be a pluralistic system in Iran in the future, but we should not then jump to the conclusion that this is going to happen soon, or that it's going to come about through some sort of revolution.
HEMMER: Two questions related directly with the United States. Number one, what about the charges that the U.S. right now is behind this? Truth to it or not?
ABDO: Well, certainly the regime has been saying this for 23 years, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, that the United States wants to oust the mullahs from power. And certainly the rhetoric from The bush administration gives them a lot of credibility now, because even reformists this weekend made statements to the Iranian people, you see, this is all being orchestrated by Washington.
So the Bush administration through their rhetoric and the statements by President Bush this weekend certainly gives the hardliners a lot of credibility. I think that in terms of the big question, does this inspire students to go out into the streets? I think the answer is no. They have their own reasons for protesting.
HEMMER: The second American connection now -- I'm just running out of time here. You have forces in Afghanistan to the west, you have American forces to the east in Iraq. What's been the impact in that thus far?
ABDO: The Iranians really feel that they're being basically trapped by U.S. presence on their borders from all directions. And this, again, strengthens the hardliners in the regime, because they use this perceived threat to tell people we must unify, we must not allow the Americans to destabilize our country.
HEMMER: Interesting prospective.
Geneive Abdo, Thanks for talking with us there in D.C.
ABDO: Thank you.
HEMMER: We'll watch it certainly.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired June 16, 2003 - 09:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Tehran's government claims the U.S. is behind those protests. Geneive Abdo has written a book, along with her husband, about the struggle for power in Iran. It's called "Answering Only to God." She is our guests right now, live in D.C.
Good morning to you, and, Geneive, good to have you here on AMERICAN MORNING.
I want to know with are the forces at work right now in a lot of university towns throughout that country, is that enough to bring out change?
GENEIVE ABDO, JOURNALIST: Well, certainly every time there are protests in Iran and there is some sort of expression to the opposition to the regime, this moves the whole process forward.
But I think that it's a huge misunderstanding of Iranian politics to assume that there's some sort of revolution that will happen in the near future.
HEMMER: Why do you say that? The force is not that strong yet?
ABDO: Well, if you look at the students who are demonstrating, for example, they're not very numerous. They're few in numbers, and also despite the fact that these protests have really been going on since 1999, the students really haven't managed to create a broad- based coalition across Iranian society, which would be necessary to bring about a revolution.
HEMMER: In this country, we get the impression that just about every young person in the country wants to change. Seventy percent of the population is under the age of 30. What are the facts under the age of 30 about how much they truly want a major transformation in their country?
ABDO: They want a major transformation. That's for certain. They want more freedom, as you mentioned in your report. They want a free press, they want a pluralistic political system, but they don't want this kind of change to happen during some sort of revolution. And during the three years I was a correspondent in Iran, Iranians made this very clear, even the most radical students and the most radical dissidents; they really believe that the country can create change on its own in a gradual way, not the kind of internal rebellion that the Bush administration is talking about.
So I think it's important not to confuse two issues. Yes, the Iranians want change, and yes, there's likely to be a pluralistic system in Iran in the future, but we should not then jump to the conclusion that this is going to happen soon, or that it's going to come about through some sort of revolution.
HEMMER: Two questions related directly with the United States. Number one, what about the charges that the U.S. right now is behind this? Truth to it or not?
ABDO: Well, certainly the regime has been saying this for 23 years, since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, that the United States wants to oust the mullahs from power. And certainly the rhetoric from The bush administration gives them a lot of credibility now, because even reformists this weekend made statements to the Iranian people, you see, this is all being orchestrated by Washington.
So the Bush administration through their rhetoric and the statements by President Bush this weekend certainly gives the hardliners a lot of credibility. I think that in terms of the big question, does this inspire students to go out into the streets? I think the answer is no. They have their own reasons for protesting.
HEMMER: The second American connection now -- I'm just running out of time here. You have forces in Afghanistan to the west, you have American forces to the east in Iraq. What's been the impact in that thus far?
ABDO: The Iranians really feel that they're being basically trapped by U.S. presence on their borders from all directions. And this, again, strengthens the hardliners in the regime, because they use this perceived threat to tell people we must unify, we must not allow the Americans to destabilize our country.
HEMMER: Interesting prospective.
Geneive Abdo, Thanks for talking with us there in D.C.
ABDO: Thank you.
HEMMER: We'll watch it certainly.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
