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American Morning
Hunting Osama bin Laden
Aired June 25, 2003 - 07:5 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Pakistani troops are searching for Osama bin Laden, said to be along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan still at this time. After meeting with President Bush in Camp David yesterday, the president of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, talked about the campaign to still try and root out terrorists in his country.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PAKISTANI PRESIDENT: Now, if at all any al Qaeda operative is hiding in this region, we are after them. Now, whether Osama bin Laden is here or across the border, your guess, sir, will be as good as mine. So, I wouldn't like to venture into a guess. But the possibility of his maybe shifting sides on the border is very much there.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Musharraf's speculation is similar to other rumors about the whereabouts of the al Qaeda leader.
George Friedman with the Stratfor Intelligence Group is with us to talk about it live in Austin, Texas.
Good to have you here on AMERICAN MORNING.
What gives, in your estimation right now, based on the Pakistani president's words of yesterday, is Osama bin Laden still in that tribal area in western Pakistan?
GEORGE FRIEDMAN, STRATFOR.COM: Well, as he said, you know, your guess is as good as mine. The probability is that he is in that region. It's a very remote region. It's very difficult to access. And it's clear that U.S. intelligence seems to think that he's there, because they're mounting a fairly substantial military campaign on both sides of the border to try to seal the area and take someone that's really important, and it must be Osama.
HEMMER: What do you make of the significance, if at all here, of the Pakistani army going into that part?
FRIEDMAN: That's pretty significant. It's actually been going on a while, the different probes up into that area. Whats really significant is that right now we're publicly coordinating operations with the Pakistanis. That's the big ship that the U.S. and Pakistani operations are working together, and that's going to put a lot of pressure on Musharraf, who is going to be regarded more and more as, if you will, the stooge of the United States. The Islamic parties have already charged that overnight.
HEMMER: You say al Qaeda works on a two-year cycle. You believe at this point we're coming close to the apex of that cycle. How concerned should the U.S. authorities be?
FRIEDMAN: Well, I think the U.S. authorities are very concerned, and they should be. It's not just a question they work on a two-year cycle, that's true. But it's also a question that al Qaeda is under very heavy pressure to prove that they're still operational. After September 11, they didn't get a rising out of the Arab masses. They lost the Afghan regime. Now, the Iraqi regime is down.
They have a lot of losses to show for September 11. They need to come back and demonstrate that they still are capable to their own people, and that just increases the risk that over the next few months we're going to see some sort of operation, perhaps in the United States.
HEMMER: What if it were the case, Mr. Friedman, that Osama bin Laden is captured, what are the scenarios right now that would play out after that were to take place?
FRIEDMAN: Well, there are two things. Firstly, I think al Qaeda is designed to survive his capture. It's been built to be Osama- capture proof. The more interesting thing is want do you do with Osama if you capture him? Do you put him on trial? It's very difficult to just try him secretly. And if you put him on trial in a public forum in the United States, as we saw in the O.J. case, all sorts of wild things can happen. So, taking Osama opens as many cans of worms as not being able to find him.
HEMMER: George Friedman, thank you -- Austin, Texas, talking about the latest there.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired June 25, 2003 - 07:5 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Pakistani troops are searching for Osama bin Laden, said to be along the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan still at this time. After meeting with President Bush in Camp David yesterday, the president of Pakistan, Pervez Musharraf, talked about the campaign to still try and root out terrorists in his country.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PERVEZ MUSHARRAF, PAKISTANI PRESIDENT: Now, if at all any al Qaeda operative is hiding in this region, we are after them. Now, whether Osama bin Laden is here or across the border, your guess, sir, will be as good as mine. So, I wouldn't like to venture into a guess. But the possibility of his maybe shifting sides on the border is very much there.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: Musharraf's speculation is similar to other rumors about the whereabouts of the al Qaeda leader.
George Friedman with the Stratfor Intelligence Group is with us to talk about it live in Austin, Texas.
Good to have you here on AMERICAN MORNING.
What gives, in your estimation right now, based on the Pakistani president's words of yesterday, is Osama bin Laden still in that tribal area in western Pakistan?
GEORGE FRIEDMAN, STRATFOR.COM: Well, as he said, you know, your guess is as good as mine. The probability is that he is in that region. It's a very remote region. It's very difficult to access. And it's clear that U.S. intelligence seems to think that he's there, because they're mounting a fairly substantial military campaign on both sides of the border to try to seal the area and take someone that's really important, and it must be Osama.
HEMMER: What do you make of the significance, if at all here, of the Pakistani army going into that part?
FRIEDMAN: That's pretty significant. It's actually been going on a while, the different probes up into that area. Whats really significant is that right now we're publicly coordinating operations with the Pakistanis. That's the big ship that the U.S. and Pakistani operations are working together, and that's going to put a lot of pressure on Musharraf, who is going to be regarded more and more as, if you will, the stooge of the United States. The Islamic parties have already charged that overnight.
HEMMER: You say al Qaeda works on a two-year cycle. You believe at this point we're coming close to the apex of that cycle. How concerned should the U.S. authorities be?
FRIEDMAN: Well, I think the U.S. authorities are very concerned, and they should be. It's not just a question they work on a two-year cycle, that's true. But it's also a question that al Qaeda is under very heavy pressure to prove that they're still operational. After September 11, they didn't get a rising out of the Arab masses. They lost the Afghan regime. Now, the Iraqi regime is down.
They have a lot of losses to show for September 11. They need to come back and demonstrate that they still are capable to their own people, and that just increases the risk that over the next few months we're going to see some sort of operation, perhaps in the United States.
HEMMER: What if it were the case, Mr. Friedman, that Osama bin Laden is captured, what are the scenarios right now that would play out after that were to take place?
FRIEDMAN: Well, there are two things. Firstly, I think al Qaeda is designed to survive his capture. It's been built to be Osama- capture proof. The more interesting thing is want do you do with Osama if you capture him? Do you put him on trial? It's very difficult to just try him secretly. And if you put him on trial in a public forum in the United States, as we saw in the O.J. case, all sorts of wild things can happen. So, taking Osama opens as many cans of worms as not being able to find him.
HEMMER: George Friedman, thank you -- Austin, Texas, talking about the latest there.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
