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American Morning
Interview With Terrorism Analyst Steven Simon
Aired June 30, 2003 - 09:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade is claiming responsibility for the shooting of has foreign worker in West Bank today. It comes just one day after three other Palestinian militant groups announced has temporary ceasefire. It was unclear, though, yesterday whether Al Aqsa would participate in the truce. Now that they've made intentions known, how will it affect the fragile situation in the Middle East?
Steve Simon, a terrorist expert at Rand is the co-author of "The Age of Sacred Terror." He's joining us now this morning from Washington to help us shed light on this situation.
You know we have those three militant groups that signed on to this ceasefire agreement, but smaller factions did not. And obviously, some action this morning from Al Asqa Martyrs Brigade. I mean, what do you think about this?
STEVEN SIMON, RAND TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, the last report I heard was that the Al Asqa Martyrs Brigade actually signed on to the truce. But the situation's very brittle and it's uncertain at this point, especially with regard to the smaller groups.
I should point out that the hiving (ph) off of smaller groups from larger ones under these sort of political conditions is not uncommon. If you look at Northern Ireland, the IRA, when it began to engage in a political process, split off into has number of smaller groups. They've continued to carry out terrorist attacks.
COLLINS: Our information this morning, Mr. Simon, says that Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade has did not sign on to this group, on to this agreement, I should say. We know, though, that they align themselves with Fatah. Is that where the distinction is?
SIMON: Well, the intifadah over the past, what, 33 months has given rise to has number of smaller groups that have defied the political control of Fatah, the main organization within the PLO in the heart of the Palestinian Authority.
And not only has the intifadah given new groups life, but it has also forged bonds between existing groups that didn't really obtain before. So Hamas and Islamic Jihad and this new group, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade all have been working together during the intifadah and have created kind of a new situation on the ground, and people are not quite confident how all this is going to play out.
COLLINS: In fact, you believe that Hamas may actually use this three-month period to actually regroup? Why do you think that? SIMON: Well, that certainly a fear. There have been a number of trues, really, since the Oslo process began in 1993. And one could say, really, that all sides have used these truces more to reinforce their existing positions than to advance the peace process. And one doesn't know right now whether this situation is different.
COLLINS: You know, yesterday Israeli Finance Minister Benyamin Netanyahu told CNN that Israeli intelligence actually had reports that the Palestinians were planning further attacks on Israelis. But yet, the Israeli troops began moving out from their positions in northern Gaza. What's going on here? Are all sides just posturing?
SIMON: Well, you know, my view is that both sides are exhausted at think point and really want to see a truce work.
What they're ultimate objectives are remains open to question. The Israelis seem to have a lot of confidence that Mohammed Dahlan, the Palestinian state minister for security, will be able to make a truce stick. And it certainly looks has though the larger groups are committed to a truce.
COLLINS: All right. We of course will continue to watch this situation for the latest developments. Steve Simon, terrorism expert at Rand and the co-author of "The Age of Sacred Terror." Thank you so much for your insight this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired June 30, 2003 - 09:19 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade is claiming responsibility for the shooting of has foreign worker in West Bank today. It comes just one day after three other Palestinian militant groups announced has temporary ceasefire. It was unclear, though, yesterday whether Al Aqsa would participate in the truce. Now that they've made intentions known, how will it affect the fragile situation in the Middle East?
Steve Simon, a terrorist expert at Rand is the co-author of "The Age of Sacred Terror." He's joining us now this morning from Washington to help us shed light on this situation.
You know we have those three militant groups that signed on to this ceasefire agreement, but smaller factions did not. And obviously, some action this morning from Al Asqa Martyrs Brigade. I mean, what do you think about this?
STEVEN SIMON, RAND TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, the last report I heard was that the Al Asqa Martyrs Brigade actually signed on to the truce. But the situation's very brittle and it's uncertain at this point, especially with regard to the smaller groups.
I should point out that the hiving (ph) off of smaller groups from larger ones under these sort of political conditions is not uncommon. If you look at Northern Ireland, the IRA, when it began to engage in a political process, split off into has number of smaller groups. They've continued to carry out terrorist attacks.
COLLINS: Our information this morning, Mr. Simon, says that Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade has did not sign on to this group, on to this agreement, I should say. We know, though, that they align themselves with Fatah. Is that where the distinction is?
SIMON: Well, the intifadah over the past, what, 33 months has given rise to has number of smaller groups that have defied the political control of Fatah, the main organization within the PLO in the heart of the Palestinian Authority.
And not only has the intifadah given new groups life, but it has also forged bonds between existing groups that didn't really obtain before. So Hamas and Islamic Jihad and this new group, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade all have been working together during the intifadah and have created kind of a new situation on the ground, and people are not quite confident how all this is going to play out.
COLLINS: In fact, you believe that Hamas may actually use this three-month period to actually regroup? Why do you think that? SIMON: Well, that certainly a fear. There have been a number of trues, really, since the Oslo process began in 1993. And one could say, really, that all sides have used these truces more to reinforce their existing positions than to advance the peace process. And one doesn't know right now whether this situation is different.
COLLINS: You know, yesterday Israeli Finance Minister Benyamin Netanyahu told CNN that Israeli intelligence actually had reports that the Palestinians were planning further attacks on Israelis. But yet, the Israeli troops began moving out from their positions in northern Gaza. What's going on here? Are all sides just posturing?
SIMON: Well, you know, my view is that both sides are exhausted at think point and really want to see a truce work.
What they're ultimate objectives are remains open to question. The Israelis seem to have a lot of confidence that Mohammed Dahlan, the Palestinian state minister for security, will be able to make a truce stick. And it certainly looks has though the larger groups are committed to a truce.
COLLINS: All right. We of course will continue to watch this situation for the latest developments. Steve Simon, terrorism expert at Rand and the co-author of "The Age of Sacred Terror." Thank you so much for your insight this morning.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
