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American Morning

Why Africa?

Aired July 07, 2003 - 08:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush's trip to Africa comes at a time when developments on the continent have a depressingly familiar tone. Along with the upheaval in Liberia, Congo and Sudan also have civil wars raging while Morocco and Tunisia are dealing with al Qaeda. The continent has rarely been front and center in the minds of U.S. policymakers. So just how did Africa make it to the top of the president's diplomatic to-do list?
Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield joins us this morning.

Good morning, nice to see.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Good morning and welcome.

O'BRIEN: Thank you very much.

When George W. Bush was running for president, he said that Africa was not at the top of his agenda. What's changed since then?

GREENFIELD: Yes, in fact what he said, Soledad, was it doesn't fit into the national strategic interests as far as I can see them. What's changed I think is what's changed in so many other areas and we start with September 11. We remember that before al Qaeda struck New York and Washington, they struck two U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998, they struck in Tunisia and more recently in Morocco. Ten years ago, they attacked American troops in Somalia. So there's a specific interest in not letting any base in Africa become the new Afghanistan.

And second, there are places all across the continent where religious conflict is a present and future danger. In Sudan, you mentioned the civil war between Muslims. On the one hand, Christians and Animus, those local tribal religions, have just claimed about 3 million lives.

And while we're focused on Islam, Christianity of a traditionalist and a kind of militant sort is growing all over Africa. So I think there's an interest in encouraging stability in pluralism. All of the places the president is visiting are success stories in one way or another.

And finally, it's the sheer immensity of the human suffering. Quite apart from civil wars and famine, you're talking about an AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa that has left not just millions dead but probably in the future tens of millions of AIDS orphans. These are children who have lost one or both parents and the future not only of those kids but the entire societies they are part of is almost beyond comprehension. So strategic or not, I think Africa is a place where attention has to be paid.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk politics for just a moment and the implications domestically for George W. Bush with this trip.

GREENFIELD: Yes, I think there are two. First, the president's AIDS initiative, the $15 billion in assistance he's proposed, may be the most visible example of the compassionate conservatism that he claims to embody. The U.S. may not pay much attention to Africa in general, but in the past, the sight of massive human suffering has triggered an impulse to help. You remember the Live-Aid efforts back in the '80s.

Now second, and this is trickier, Americans of all backgrounds feel an identity with their roots. Eastern European immigrants were big supporters of the tough line on the Soviet Union, American Jews and Israel. Now I have to be straight with you, I have my doubts about whether a visit like this is going to have a huge impact on African-Americans and their traditional allegiance to the Democrats. But the fact is the Republicans get so small a share of that vote that anything, anything that helps Republicans get even a small measure of support from the black community, it's a bonus.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the BBC and sort of the feud that's going on between the BBC and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. A defense correspondent claims, and this is kind of in a nutshell, that intelligence reports were tampered with, or to use his words, "sexed up" in order to basically mislead the public to some degree about the scope of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein. A new report comes out saying that it really basically taking the side of Downing Street. What are the implications for the prime minister at this point?

GREENFIELD: Well I just think it's fascinating, the political implications of a parliamentary inquiry -- remember his Labor Party dominates Parliament -- looking into whether or not the books were cooked. Traditionally American presidents have envied British prime ministers because of party discipline. I mean you get elected prime minister only when your party controls Parliament, you run it. And American presidents have often had problems with their own party.

Now look at this, in America, the United States, President Bush has almost total support on his Iraq policy from Republicans, whereas in Britain, Tony Blair lost roughly a third of the Labor Party in the vote to endorse. He lost a couple of cabinet members. He lost the House of Commons leader. That would be the equivalent of the Republican Speaker of the House quitting in protest. And it just shows you the difference between the risks that Tony Blair took in leading Britain into Iraq versus Bush -- Bush's risk. The risk for Blair are, and to some extent remain if the belief grows that he's done something not right about intelligence, much more serious for him right now than they are for the American president.

O'BRIEN: We're out of time, but a quick question for you, will there be an apology, do you think, forthcoming?

GREENFIELD: From Blair or from the BBC?

O'BRIEN: From the BBC to Blair.

GREENFIELD: No and no. That's quick enough?

O'BRIEN: No and no. Yes, that is quick enough.

GREENFIELD: No and no.

O'BRIEN: Jeff Greenfield, thanks so much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired July 7, 2003 - 08:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush's trip to Africa comes at a time when developments on the continent have a depressingly familiar tone. Along with the upheaval in Liberia, Congo and Sudan also have civil wars raging while Morocco and Tunisia are dealing with al Qaeda. The continent has rarely been front and center in the minds of U.S. policymakers. So just how did Africa make it to the top of the president's diplomatic to-do list?
Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield joins us this morning.

Good morning, nice to see.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Good morning and welcome.

O'BRIEN: Thank you very much.

When George W. Bush was running for president, he said that Africa was not at the top of his agenda. What's changed since then?

GREENFIELD: Yes, in fact what he said, Soledad, was it doesn't fit into the national strategic interests as far as I can see them. What's changed I think is what's changed in so many other areas and we start with September 11. We remember that before al Qaeda struck New York and Washington, they struck two U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998, they struck in Tunisia and more recently in Morocco. Ten years ago, they attacked American troops in Somalia. So there's a specific interest in not letting any base in Africa become the new Afghanistan.

And second, there are places all across the continent where religious conflict is a present and future danger. In Sudan, you mentioned the civil war between Muslims. On the one hand, Christians and Animus, those local tribal religions, have just claimed about 3 million lives.

And while we're focused on Islam, Christianity of a traditionalist and a kind of militant sort is growing all over Africa. So I think there's an interest in encouraging stability in pluralism. All of the places the president is visiting are success stories in one way or another.

And finally, it's the sheer immensity of the human suffering. Quite apart from civil wars and famine, you're talking about an AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa that has left not just millions dead but probably in the future tens of millions of AIDS orphans. These are children who have lost one or both parents and the future not only of those kids but the entire societies they are part of is almost beyond comprehension. So strategic or not, I think Africa is a place where attention has to be paid.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk politics for just a moment and the implications domestically for George W. Bush with this trip.

GREENFIELD: Yes, I think there are two. First, the president's AIDS initiative, the $15 billion in assistance he's proposed, may be the most visible example of the compassionate conservatism that he claims to embody. The U.S. may not pay much attention to Africa in general, but in the past, the sight of massive human suffering has triggered an impulse to help. You remember the Live-Aid efforts back in the '80s.

Now second, and this is trickier, Americans of all backgrounds feel an identity with their roots. Eastern European immigrants were big supporters of the tough line on the Soviet Union, American Jews and Israel. Now I have to be straight with you, I have my doubts about whether a visit like this is going to have a huge impact on African-Americans and their traditional allegiance to the Democrats. But the fact is the Republicans get so small a share of that vote that anything, anything that helps Republicans get even a small measure of support from the black community, it's a bonus.

O'BRIEN: Let's talk about the BBC and sort of the feud that's going on between the BBC and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. A defense correspondent claims, and this is kind of in a nutshell, that intelligence reports were tampered with, or to use his words, "sexed up" in order to basically mislead the public to some degree about the scope of the threat posed by Saddam Hussein. A new report comes out saying that it really basically taking the side of Downing Street. What are the implications for the prime minister at this point?

GREENFIELD: Well I just think it's fascinating, the political implications of a parliamentary inquiry -- remember his Labor Party dominates Parliament -- looking into whether or not the books were cooked. Traditionally American presidents have envied British prime ministers because of party discipline. I mean you get elected prime minister only when your party controls Parliament, you run it. And American presidents have often had problems with their own party.

Now look at this, in America, the United States, President Bush has almost total support on his Iraq policy from Republicans, whereas in Britain, Tony Blair lost roughly a third of the Labor Party in the vote to endorse. He lost a couple of cabinet members. He lost the House of Commons leader. That would be the equivalent of the Republican Speaker of the House quitting in protest. And it just shows you the difference between the risks that Tony Blair took in leading Britain into Iraq versus Bush -- Bush's risk. The risk for Blair are, and to some extent remain if the belief grows that he's done something not right about intelligence, much more serious for him right now than they are for the American president.

O'BRIEN: We're out of time, but a quick question for you, will there be an apology, do you think, forthcoming?

GREENFIELD: From Blair or from the BBC?

O'BRIEN: From the BBC to Blair.

GREENFIELD: No and no. That's quick enough?

O'BRIEN: No and no. Yes, that is quick enough.

GREENFIELD: No and no.

O'BRIEN: Jeff Greenfield, thanks so much.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com