Return to Transcripts main page

American Morning

North Korea Crisis

Aired July 16, 2003 - 09:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Tension between the U.S. and North Korea is building following Pyongyang's claim it has enough plutonium to build six nuclear weapons. Former Defense Secretary William Perry warned, if the North Koreans move towards processing, then we are on a path towards war.
Joining us this morning from Washington D.C. Daniel Poneman is a former nuclear weapons adviser to President Clinton.

Good morning. Thanks for joining us.

Do you agree with the assertion from Perry?

DANIEL PONEMAN, FMR. NUCLEAR ARMS ADVISER TO PRESIDENT CLINTON: I certainly agree that if it turns out to be true, that North Korea has moved to complete the reprocessing of the 8,000 spent fuel rods, giving them five to six more bombs' worth of plutonium, that would be of the gravest consequence for national security.

O'BRIEN: That claim right now is trying to be verified by analysts. Do you think there's a good chance that it is, in fact, true?

PONEMAN: I really don't know. One thing we've learned about dealing with the North Koreans, if they say they have something, it doesn't mean that they have not, and if they say they have not, it doesn't mean that they have.

As I read in this morning's reports, as you're read, we are now trying very hard to find out what the truth of the matter is.

O'BRIEN: In a sense, does it not matter? Some have said that even if they do have it and in fact they have it, within months they could, so it's sort of a moot point, that specific discussion?

PONEMAN: I don't think it's moot, Soledad. The point is the strategic balance in Korea will profoundly change if, in fact, North Korea gains possession of five to six additional bombs' worth of plutonium. Before they do that, the plutonium is embedded in a very large mass of spent fuel, 8,000 spent fuel rods, that's large, that's visible. Once that's been reduced to five or six critical masses worth of plutonium, each of which could be less than the size of a grapefruit, we will lose it from sight forever. That could turn up anywhere in the world, to our gravest regret.

O'BRIEN: So let's say then that the claim is true, or will be true. Give us a sense then of how the political and military landscape changes.

PONEMAN: Well, once North Korea actually has possession of five to six additional bombs worth of plutonium, they could potentially test one or two weapons. That could set off a chain reaction, a nuclear arms race in east Asia. I think the effects immediately in South Korea and Japan would be profound. The effects would certainly extend to Taiwan and throughout Asia, and I think South Asia as well, Pakistan and India. You could see a whole comcat (ph) nation of events that will leave us all much less secure.

The other great consequence, obviously, is North Korea is very well known for its extensive exports of weapons of mass destruction to countries that are hostile to the United States. If any one of those nuclear weapons ends up in the hands of a Taliban, an Al Qaeda, an Iran, it could, again, have the gravest consequences.

O'BRIEN: The U.S. has thus far refused to talk directly to North Korean officials, instead wanting to talk to China, and South Korea and also Japan. Is that a bad strategy there?

PONEMAN: Look, I think we've seen in the last 24 to 48 hours some very encouraging developments. I certainly do believe that there's no solution set to this crisis that does not go through, in the first instance, discussions with Pyongyang. That much is clear.

However, you've had a very concerted effort by the administration, which looks to have been successful, to involve the Chinese in a very active role, an extraordinary session of the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister just had with Kim Jong Il in North Korea, leading to, at least according to this morning's reports, the possibility of a new framework for discussions.

If, in fact, we get to those discussions involving North Korea and involving China, which has more leverage over North Korea than anyone else, then I think we may still have chance to get this under control.

O'BRIEN: Daniel Poneman, talking to us from Washington D.C. this morning. Thank you.

PONEMAN: Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired July 16, 2003 - 09:17   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Tension between the U.S. and North Korea is building following Pyongyang's claim it has enough plutonium to build six nuclear weapons. Former Defense Secretary William Perry warned, if the North Koreans move towards processing, then we are on a path towards war.
Joining us this morning from Washington D.C. Daniel Poneman is a former nuclear weapons adviser to President Clinton.

Good morning. Thanks for joining us.

Do you agree with the assertion from Perry?

DANIEL PONEMAN, FMR. NUCLEAR ARMS ADVISER TO PRESIDENT CLINTON: I certainly agree that if it turns out to be true, that North Korea has moved to complete the reprocessing of the 8,000 spent fuel rods, giving them five to six more bombs' worth of plutonium, that would be of the gravest consequence for national security.

O'BRIEN: That claim right now is trying to be verified by analysts. Do you think there's a good chance that it is, in fact, true?

PONEMAN: I really don't know. One thing we've learned about dealing with the North Koreans, if they say they have something, it doesn't mean that they have not, and if they say they have not, it doesn't mean that they have.

As I read in this morning's reports, as you're read, we are now trying very hard to find out what the truth of the matter is.

O'BRIEN: In a sense, does it not matter? Some have said that even if they do have it and in fact they have it, within months they could, so it's sort of a moot point, that specific discussion?

PONEMAN: I don't think it's moot, Soledad. The point is the strategic balance in Korea will profoundly change if, in fact, North Korea gains possession of five to six additional bombs' worth of plutonium. Before they do that, the plutonium is embedded in a very large mass of spent fuel, 8,000 spent fuel rods, that's large, that's visible. Once that's been reduced to five or six critical masses worth of plutonium, each of which could be less than the size of a grapefruit, we will lose it from sight forever. That could turn up anywhere in the world, to our gravest regret.

O'BRIEN: So let's say then that the claim is true, or will be true. Give us a sense then of how the political and military landscape changes.

PONEMAN: Well, once North Korea actually has possession of five to six additional bombs worth of plutonium, they could potentially test one or two weapons. That could set off a chain reaction, a nuclear arms race in east Asia. I think the effects immediately in South Korea and Japan would be profound. The effects would certainly extend to Taiwan and throughout Asia, and I think South Asia as well, Pakistan and India. You could see a whole comcat (ph) nation of events that will leave us all much less secure.

The other great consequence, obviously, is North Korea is very well known for its extensive exports of weapons of mass destruction to countries that are hostile to the United States. If any one of those nuclear weapons ends up in the hands of a Taliban, an Al Qaeda, an Iran, it could, again, have the gravest consequences.

O'BRIEN: The U.S. has thus far refused to talk directly to North Korean officials, instead wanting to talk to China, and South Korea and also Japan. Is that a bad strategy there?

PONEMAN: Look, I think we've seen in the last 24 to 48 hours some very encouraging developments. I certainly do believe that there's no solution set to this crisis that does not go through, in the first instance, discussions with Pyongyang. That much is clear.

However, you've had a very concerted effort by the administration, which looks to have been successful, to involve the Chinese in a very active role, an extraordinary session of the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister just had with Kim Jong Il in North Korea, leading to, at least according to this morning's reports, the possibility of a new framework for discussions.

If, in fact, we get to those discussions involving North Korea and involving China, which has more leverage over North Korea than anyone else, then I think we may still have chance to get this under control.

O'BRIEN: Daniel Poneman, talking to us from Washington D.C. this morning. Thank you.

PONEMAN: Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com