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American Morning
Interview With James Lilley, Former Ambassador to South Korea
Aired July 21, 2003 - 07:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Also from overseas, that growing nuclear threat from North Korea. Suspicions that Pyongyang could be operating a second secret nuclear facility raising new questions about how the administration should respond.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: We cannot rule out a military option, but the next step should be aggressive diplomacy. The steps should be the same one that Richard Lugar, a Republican, chairman of the committee, and I called for eight months ago: talk, talk, sit down, find out specifically what it is they need, what it is we're willing to do. And if we cannot work it out diplomatically, then the option left is a military option.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: James Lilley of the American Enterprise Institute, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, is with us now from Washington to talk more about this.
Mr. Ambassador, good morning.
JAMES LILLEY, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO SOUTH KOREA: Good morning.
HEMMER: Welcome back to AMERICAN MORNING. If true, how serious do you see this?
LILLEY: I don't think we know yet. I think we know, first of all, they've reactivated their plutonium plant at Yongbyon. That's gone; that's doing. Then we know they have a highly-enriched uranium program, which we confronted them with last year. We know that's moving. And finally, we have these fumes of smoke, krypton 85, which tell us very, very little about this so-called new plant. So, I'd go a little slow on saying they've got a new plutonium plant.
HEMMER: But, Mr. Ambassador, the thinking is that these detection devices out there south of the border right along the 36th parallel was what has led them to believe that this indeed is the case. How often is this technique used to essentially sniff fumes out of the air?
LILLEY: Oh, I think we've used it for some time. Mizet (ph), it's a process that we use. But it's not definitive. Be very careful about jumping to conclusions on the basis of this, where it comes from, how much plutonium is being produced. Watch it carefully. What is important right now is I think the Korean president -- the South Korean president said very clearly, we have greater cohesion convergence now than at any time. The situation is more stable. And Tony Blair came in and said, look, you've got to handle North Korea differently than Iraq. They're very different situations. Handle with sensitivity, and we are.
We've been working very hard for the last eight months to pull this cohesion together of the friends and allies in the area. And if you don't have that, I wouldn't go into negotiations.
HEMMER: Go back to 1994. There was a thought then at the time, the Clinton White House had this plan on the table to take out the nuclear plant in North Korea. Is it possible that if true that they're building this structure below ground that they want to avoid the possibility of a military strike that would in essence cripple and take out any nuclear capability it might have?
LILLEY: Look, and, first of all, that 1994 thing was largely talk. People have told me right next to the Clinton administration this was largely psychological warfare, because they knew if they struck North Korea that you'd probably lose five million people in Seoul. Our allies and friends would never, never buy it. So, you have to set that aside.
I do not think the military pre-emptive option is on the table now. I think we can handle it other ways. The real vulnerability in North Korea is their economics. They're desperate. They're on a lifeline to China and South Korea. And even to us, we can use this and we can use it effectively, but it takes time and effort and cohesion.
HEMMER: If youre going to handle it in other ways, what is that? Is that monetary? Is this the way that many people think the North Koreans are just trying to suck out more money to get them out of the dire situation they're in?
LILLEY: Of course, they are. That's exactly what they're trying to do. Not change their system. Get this free food aid and free oil that they got in the '90s, which spoiled them very badly, and now they're demanding it again. This time, we're saying if you proceed and begin to get rid of your weapons of mass destruction, there is a package there that you can use. If you proceed on this, you will lose that package. I think that's the way to deal with them.
HEMMER: Tony Blair is out there today talking about a two-step process here in terms of diplomacy -- first, engage the Chinese and North Korea, and then come on a second level and draw on the South Koreans and the Japanese. At the outset, does that sound like something that is doable to you?
LILLEY: I think that's exactly what we have in mind when we had these long talks with the Chinese vice foreign minister, Dai Bingguo, just a few days go. Colin Powell spent two-and-a-half hours with him. He saw Condi Rice. He saw Vice President Cheney. I think we're working out this business of starting off with three and then going into five, because you've got to get the other nations in there.
South Korea is under direct threat, as is Japan. China is the major supplier. If you bring this cohesion together, which the North Koreans absolutely detest and are frightened of it seems to me, then we have a chance of really pulling this one off.
HEMMER: Thank you, Mr. Ambassador. James Lilley in D.C., we'll talk again.
LILLEY: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Korea>
Aired July 21, 2003 - 07:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Also from overseas, that growing nuclear threat from North Korea. Suspicions that Pyongyang could be operating a second secret nuclear facility raising new questions about how the administration should respond.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: We cannot rule out a military option, but the next step should be aggressive diplomacy. The steps should be the same one that Richard Lugar, a Republican, chairman of the committee, and I called for eight months ago: talk, talk, sit down, find out specifically what it is they need, what it is we're willing to do. And if we cannot work it out diplomatically, then the option left is a military option.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: James Lilley of the American Enterprise Institute, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, is with us now from Washington to talk more about this.
Mr. Ambassador, good morning.
JAMES LILLEY, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO SOUTH KOREA: Good morning.
HEMMER: Welcome back to AMERICAN MORNING. If true, how serious do you see this?
LILLEY: I don't think we know yet. I think we know, first of all, they've reactivated their plutonium plant at Yongbyon. That's gone; that's doing. Then we know they have a highly-enriched uranium program, which we confronted them with last year. We know that's moving. And finally, we have these fumes of smoke, krypton 85, which tell us very, very little about this so-called new plant. So, I'd go a little slow on saying they've got a new plutonium plant.
HEMMER: But, Mr. Ambassador, the thinking is that these detection devices out there south of the border right along the 36th parallel was what has led them to believe that this indeed is the case. How often is this technique used to essentially sniff fumes out of the air?
LILLEY: Oh, I think we've used it for some time. Mizet (ph), it's a process that we use. But it's not definitive. Be very careful about jumping to conclusions on the basis of this, where it comes from, how much plutonium is being produced. Watch it carefully. What is important right now is I think the Korean president -- the South Korean president said very clearly, we have greater cohesion convergence now than at any time. The situation is more stable. And Tony Blair came in and said, look, you've got to handle North Korea differently than Iraq. They're very different situations. Handle with sensitivity, and we are.
We've been working very hard for the last eight months to pull this cohesion together of the friends and allies in the area. And if you don't have that, I wouldn't go into negotiations.
HEMMER: Go back to 1994. There was a thought then at the time, the Clinton White House had this plan on the table to take out the nuclear plant in North Korea. Is it possible that if true that they're building this structure below ground that they want to avoid the possibility of a military strike that would in essence cripple and take out any nuclear capability it might have?
LILLEY: Look, and, first of all, that 1994 thing was largely talk. People have told me right next to the Clinton administration this was largely psychological warfare, because they knew if they struck North Korea that you'd probably lose five million people in Seoul. Our allies and friends would never, never buy it. So, you have to set that aside.
I do not think the military pre-emptive option is on the table now. I think we can handle it other ways. The real vulnerability in North Korea is their economics. They're desperate. They're on a lifeline to China and South Korea. And even to us, we can use this and we can use it effectively, but it takes time and effort and cohesion.
HEMMER: If youre going to handle it in other ways, what is that? Is that monetary? Is this the way that many people think the North Koreans are just trying to suck out more money to get them out of the dire situation they're in?
LILLEY: Of course, they are. That's exactly what they're trying to do. Not change their system. Get this free food aid and free oil that they got in the '90s, which spoiled them very badly, and now they're demanding it again. This time, we're saying if you proceed and begin to get rid of your weapons of mass destruction, there is a package there that you can use. If you proceed on this, you will lose that package. I think that's the way to deal with them.
HEMMER: Tony Blair is out there today talking about a two-step process here in terms of diplomacy -- first, engage the Chinese and North Korea, and then come on a second level and draw on the South Koreans and the Japanese. At the outset, does that sound like something that is doable to you?
LILLEY: I think that's exactly what we have in mind when we had these long talks with the Chinese vice foreign minister, Dai Bingguo, just a few days go. Colin Powell spent two-and-a-half hours with him. He saw Condi Rice. He saw Vice President Cheney. I think we're working out this business of starting off with three and then going into five, because you've got to get the other nations in there.
South Korea is under direct threat, as is Japan. China is the major supplier. If you bring this cohesion together, which the North Koreans absolutely detest and are frightened of it seems to me, then we have a chance of really pulling this one off.
HEMMER: Thank you, Mr. Ambassador. James Lilley in D.C., we'll talk again.
LILLEY: Thank you.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Korea>
