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American Morning

Security Outlook for U.S. Soldiers in Iraq

Aired July 23, 2003 - 07:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As Iraqis learn about the deaths of the brothers Hussein, what will it mean now for security for U.S. soldiers in Iraq, still the targets despite the end of major fighting there?
CNN analyst Ken Pollack of the Saban Center Brookings is back with us in D.C.

Ken -- good morning again, and welcome back here.

KEN POLLAC, CNN ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: A variance of opinion on this. William Cohen last night here on CNN said, in the short term more violence is to be expected. A few minutes later, Ahmed Chalabi here on CNN said, in the short term forget about it, that's fantasy, it won't happen. What's the truth, given two more dead soldiers overnight?

POLLACK: My expectation is that we will continue to see violence. I don't know that we'll necessarily see a greater spike, but by the same token, I'm also not convinced that we'll necessarily see any diminution in the immediate term. The deaths of these two brothers might cause some disruption of the Iraqi resistance forces, the former regime figures who are attacking those forces. But we need to remember that they seem to be rather decentralized, and there seem to be a number of different groups who are attacking U.S. forces, not all of whom seem to have been reporting to Uday and Qusay.

HEMMER: Three months ago on this program, we talked about the co-dependence of these two brothers. And at the time, you said it was Uday who was most likely to be more dependent on his brother, Qusay. Why is that, Ken?

POLLACK: Well, Uday was never given quite the same responsibilities that Qusay was. Qusay was the favorite of Saddam in the last 10 years. He was the one who was put in charge of the Republican Guard or the Special Republican Guard, of the weapons of mass destruction programs, of all of Saddam's real crown jewels.

Uday, even though he was the older and started off as the apple of his father's eye, continuously disappointed Saddam, and as a result was not given the same kind of responsibilities, the same kind of control. He didn't seem to have the wherewithal to be able to exercise control over large security apparatus and other elements of the regime. And, therefore, it was Qusay who was really the trusted one, the one who made decisions, the one Saddam trusted. HEMMER: Last evening here on CNN, Jamie McIntyre was reporting that photos might actually be released and shown to the Iraqi people. In your history of studying the country and studying the people in Iraq, why is it that they remain so unconvinced in certain circles of that country?

POLLACK: Yes, well, you've got to remember, Bill, of course, that these people have been traumatized by 34 years of this regime's misrule. And while there are any number of Iraqis that I think who are ultimately relieved -- and we've heard the reports of celebratory gunfire in Baghdad and the fact that most of the Iraqis do seem to be very relieved -- I think that what we're seeing is inevitable in Iraq. An initial wave of relief followed by a sudden feeling of, well, maybe the Americans are wrong. Are we certain that these guys are really dead? They have been so traumatized by this regime that unless they are absolutely certain that these two are dead, they're still going to be haunted by the suspicion that we got the wrong guys, and that they might still be alive.

HEMMER: Ken Pollack, thanks, down in D.C. We'll talk again.

POLLACK: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.






Aired July 23, 2003 - 07:11   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As Iraqis learn about the deaths of the brothers Hussein, what will it mean now for security for U.S. soldiers in Iraq, still the targets despite the end of major fighting there?
CNN analyst Ken Pollack of the Saban Center Brookings is back with us in D.C.

Ken -- good morning again, and welcome back here.

KEN POLLAC, CNN ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: A variance of opinion on this. William Cohen last night here on CNN said, in the short term more violence is to be expected. A few minutes later, Ahmed Chalabi here on CNN said, in the short term forget about it, that's fantasy, it won't happen. What's the truth, given two more dead soldiers overnight?

POLLACK: My expectation is that we will continue to see violence. I don't know that we'll necessarily see a greater spike, but by the same token, I'm also not convinced that we'll necessarily see any diminution in the immediate term. The deaths of these two brothers might cause some disruption of the Iraqi resistance forces, the former regime figures who are attacking those forces. But we need to remember that they seem to be rather decentralized, and there seem to be a number of different groups who are attacking U.S. forces, not all of whom seem to have been reporting to Uday and Qusay.

HEMMER: Three months ago on this program, we talked about the co-dependence of these two brothers. And at the time, you said it was Uday who was most likely to be more dependent on his brother, Qusay. Why is that, Ken?

POLLACK: Well, Uday was never given quite the same responsibilities that Qusay was. Qusay was the favorite of Saddam in the last 10 years. He was the one who was put in charge of the Republican Guard or the Special Republican Guard, of the weapons of mass destruction programs, of all of Saddam's real crown jewels.

Uday, even though he was the older and started off as the apple of his father's eye, continuously disappointed Saddam, and as a result was not given the same kind of responsibilities, the same kind of control. He didn't seem to have the wherewithal to be able to exercise control over large security apparatus and other elements of the regime. And, therefore, it was Qusay who was really the trusted one, the one who made decisions, the one Saddam trusted. HEMMER: Last evening here on CNN, Jamie McIntyre was reporting that photos might actually be released and shown to the Iraqi people. In your history of studying the country and studying the people in Iraq, why is it that they remain so unconvinced in certain circles of that country?

POLLACK: Yes, well, you've got to remember, Bill, of course, that these people have been traumatized by 34 years of this regime's misrule. And while there are any number of Iraqis that I think who are ultimately relieved -- and we've heard the reports of celebratory gunfire in Baghdad and the fact that most of the Iraqis do seem to be very relieved -- I think that what we're seeing is inevitable in Iraq. An initial wave of relief followed by a sudden feeling of, well, maybe the Americans are wrong. Are we certain that these guys are really dead? They have been so traumatized by this regime that unless they are absolutely certain that these two are dead, they're still going to be haunted by the suspicion that we got the wrong guys, and that they might still be alive.

HEMMER: Ken Pollack, thanks, down in D.C. We'll talk again.

POLLACK: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.