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American Morning
Terror Threat
Aired August 04, 2003 - 09:08 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, let's turn now to CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen, who's standing by at our Washington bureau.
Good morning, Peter.
Let's talk about this tape. First off, are you convinced this is Ayman Al Zawahiri on the tape, and how seriously do you take these threats?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, I'm pretty sure it is Ayman Al Zawahiri.
In fact, Leon, when the tapes have come out, whenever they've been credited to bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri, they've always been to either bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri. People within CNN who listen to Ayman Al Zawahiri's think it is him. I would be surprised if it isn't him.
This is the fourth tape this year we've had either from bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri.
So in a sense, Secretary Ridge is correct. Not particularly surprising that on the tape there are more threats against the United States. Something that seemed odd to me is on the tape bin Laden is not mentioned. Ayman Al Zawahiri really only concentrates on the prisoners at Guantanamo, and makes threats about the possibility that some of these prisoners will go to military trial, may even be executed, he refers to that...
HARRIS: How do you read that absence of reference or voice of Osama bin Laden on this tape?
BERGEN: It's hard to tell. I mean, one of the critical vulnerabilities of bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri have are the chain of custody of these audio tapes. And the more audio tapes that come out from them, in a way, the more open they are to be caught. Because obviously, if you can trace the chain of custody back, you will eventually get to them. So I imagine that they are somewhat careful about the number of tapes they're releasing, because it is -- they, after all are quite a security-conscious bunch.
We've only had two audio tapes from bin Laden this year. Both of them preceded the war in Iraq, and we've had two from Ayman Al Zawahiri, one in May, and one just now.
But in a way, they're in a sort of catch 22 interestingly. They have to seem to be in the game by releasing the audio tapes. On the other hand, if they continue releasing them, it may leave them open to being captured.
And as John King just said, a lot of the senior leadership have been caught in one way or another.
However, Ayman Al Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden are infinitely more important than anybody else caught so far. With them still on the lam, Al Qaeda remains, I think, quite a viable force.
HARRIS: What do you make of the timing of this release right now?
BERGEN: I don't know the answer to that. I think that that tape was made about three weeks ago. If you recall, about three weeks ago the Bush administration announced that six people from Guantanamo would be tried by a military tribunal and that there is a possibility of the death penalty in those trials, and I think this tape is responding to that. So I would imagine it was made sometime in the last three weeks.
HARRIS: Very interesting. Quickly, got ask, does that tell you anything at all about maybe where Osama bin Laden is right now?
BERGEN: Well I think they're both in the northwest frontier province of Pakistan, and that is not my opinion solely; it's the opinion of many people I've spoken to. They are almost certainly on that border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan in the northwest frontier, which is an area, Leon, by the way, the size of Virginia. So that is quite a big place, 40,000 square miles.
HARRIS: Yes, and a bit more mountainous than Virginia as well.
BERGEN: Right.
HARRIS: Peter Bergen, appreciate that. Take care. Talk to you later on.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired August 4, 2003 - 09:08 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
LEON HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, let's turn now to CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen, who's standing by at our Washington bureau.
Good morning, Peter.
Let's talk about this tape. First off, are you convinced this is Ayman Al Zawahiri on the tape, and how seriously do you take these threats?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, I'm pretty sure it is Ayman Al Zawahiri.
In fact, Leon, when the tapes have come out, whenever they've been credited to bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri, they've always been to either bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri. People within CNN who listen to Ayman Al Zawahiri's think it is him. I would be surprised if it isn't him.
This is the fourth tape this year we've had either from bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri.
So in a sense, Secretary Ridge is correct. Not particularly surprising that on the tape there are more threats against the United States. Something that seemed odd to me is on the tape bin Laden is not mentioned. Ayman Al Zawahiri really only concentrates on the prisoners at Guantanamo, and makes threats about the possibility that some of these prisoners will go to military trial, may even be executed, he refers to that...
HARRIS: How do you read that absence of reference or voice of Osama bin Laden on this tape?
BERGEN: It's hard to tell. I mean, one of the critical vulnerabilities of bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri have are the chain of custody of these audio tapes. And the more audio tapes that come out from them, in a way, the more open they are to be caught. Because obviously, if you can trace the chain of custody back, you will eventually get to them. So I imagine that they are somewhat careful about the number of tapes they're releasing, because it is -- they, after all are quite a security-conscious bunch.
We've only had two audio tapes from bin Laden this year. Both of them preceded the war in Iraq, and we've had two from Ayman Al Zawahiri, one in May, and one just now.
But in a way, they're in a sort of catch 22 interestingly. They have to seem to be in the game by releasing the audio tapes. On the other hand, if they continue releasing them, it may leave them open to being captured.
And as John King just said, a lot of the senior leadership have been caught in one way or another.
However, Ayman Al Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden are infinitely more important than anybody else caught so far. With them still on the lam, Al Qaeda remains, I think, quite a viable force.
HARRIS: What do you make of the timing of this release right now?
BERGEN: I don't know the answer to that. I think that that tape was made about three weeks ago. If you recall, about three weeks ago the Bush administration announced that six people from Guantanamo would be tried by a military tribunal and that there is a possibility of the death penalty in those trials, and I think this tape is responding to that. So I would imagine it was made sometime in the last three weeks.
HARRIS: Very interesting. Quickly, got ask, does that tell you anything at all about maybe where Osama bin Laden is right now?
BERGEN: Well I think they're both in the northwest frontier province of Pakistan, and that is not my opinion solely; it's the opinion of many people I've spoken to. They are almost certainly on that border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan in the northwest frontier, which is an area, Leon, by the way, the size of Virginia. So that is quite a big place, 40,000 square miles.
HARRIS: Yes, and a bit more mountainous than Virginia as well.
BERGEN: Right.
HARRIS: Peter Bergen, appreciate that. Take care. Talk to you later on.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
