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American Morning
Justice Department Gives Opinion on California's Election Recall
Aired August 19, 2003 - 08:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: The Justice Department gives its opinion on California's election recall. But there are still court challenges out there that seek to delay the vote. What they want to do is take it from October 7, move it to the first part of March.
And Bob Franken back with us live in L.A. -- Bob, what, the next hearing in court is the end of this month, the 29th of August.
What's being said about that hearing?
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Justice Department yesterday said that, in effect, it had given clearance to the changes that are going to have to be made to this October 7 election.
So it would seem -- of course, judges always have their own agendas -- but it would seem that the Justice Department has answered that judge in San Jose who said that he needed this pre-clearance from the Justice Department.
There's also the case, of course, that is going on, the ACLU case that is going on here in Los Angeles, where the ACLU says that six counties who still use the discredited punch card ballot are, in effect, disenfranchising the voters of those counties because of an inevitable error rate. But the judge expressed quite a bit of skepticism. He said that the people of California have a very strong right to have their wishes met, which is to say, to hold the election. He said there is apparently an awful lot of gross dissatisfaction, to use the words he said he was going to use.
He's going to rule on that by tomorrow. Some time by tomorrow he'll rule on whether the election should be delayed. He said there certainly will be an appeal. He said somebody is going to certainly be dissatisfied -- Bill.
HEMMER: There was a hearing yesterday in L.A.
What happened there?
FRANKEN: Well, that's the one where the judge, in fact, said that the presentation by the ACLU may, in fact, thwart the wishes of the voters, that he may not be inclined to do it. The questioning that he asked of the ACLU was very skeptical, leading to the conclusion that he was leaning toward saying no, he was not going to delay the election. It's important to point out, however, you can never predict what a judge is going to do. HEMMER: Yes, but I think one of the more interesting things later today is that the governor, Gray Davis, is actually going to address the recall issue for the first time in a speech.
What's expected? What's anticipated in that address?
FRANKEN: Well, he apparently, according to his aides, is not going to be apologetic. He's going to say that he realizes that there's a lot of dissatisfaction, that he has to do a better job, that he's been handed a bad deck of cards due to the economy and that he feels that the recall is an effort to thwart the will of the people and the votes.
He's, interestingly, having quite a fight within the Democratic Party with his lieutenant governor, Cruz Bustamante. Now, Cruz Bustamante, the lieutenant governor, is vying for support, saying that there should be a vote no on the recall, vote yes on Cruz Bustamante. Gray Davis is saying the emphasis should be just vote no on the recall. There's a real fight for endorsements and money from various unions and the like. In fact, Bustamante pulled off quite a coup yesterday when he got the endorsement of the state employees union, which is one of the key unions that backs Democrats.
HEMMER: Bob, thanks.
Bob Franken in L.A.
We know back here in the Northeast the electricity was -- kept millions in the dark for quite a while, but as Bob points out, the electricity is still running quite high in California.
Jeff Greenfield, our senior political analyst, here to stop by and look at this one, as well.
California near and dear to your bicoastal heart.
Where do we start today, huh?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Where we start is -- it's almost inevitable in politics -- with a poll. This one was released over the weekend. The numbers are intriguing, but I think even more intriguing is what it tells us about the terrain of the coming battle. First, to the numbers.
The major finding is that Governor Gray Davis has lost significant ground in his fight to keep his job. The field poll says that if the recall vote were held today, 58 percent would vote to remove Governor Davis, while only 37 percent would retain him. The last poll, a couple of weeks ago, had it 51 to 43 to recall Davis, so clearly he slipped.
By the way, Davis' approval numbers are at 22 percent. That is slightly worse than President Nixon's on the eve of his 1974 resignation. Not a good comparison.
Now, what about the choice to succeed Davis? Well, for those who believe that only Arnold Schwarzenegger and 134 other people are in the race, there may be a surprise here. According to that field poll, the leader right now, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the lone major Democrat, at 25 percent. Schwarzenegger is second with 22 percent. And then come conservative Republicans Tom McClintock with nine percent; Bill Simon, who lost to Davis last November, at eight percent; and former baseball commission Peter Uberoff at five percent.
Now, please, take these numbers with a barrel of salt because no one has any idea who's going to show up for a recall election that's never happened. The betting is that Republicans, the dissatisfied people, are slightly more likely to vote.
HEMMER: A barrel of salt, not just a grain of salt.
GREENFIELD: Not just a grain, right.
HEMMER: If Republicans are more likely to vote on October 7, what's the possibility they could split the vote and actually weaken the chance of a strong Republican candidate?
GREENFIELD: Well, in fact, there's -- that's exactly what some Republicans are worried about. There may be some pressure on Bill Simon and McClintock to withdraw. But you've got to remember, California conservative Republicans have shown no inclination to play that kind of politics. Last fall, they soundly rejected former Los Angeles Mayor Dick Reardon for governor, even though the White House was pushing him as the best candidate to beat Davis.
Schwarzenegger has stirred up a hornet's nest by appointing billionaire Warren Buffett as a senior adviser. Why? Because Buffett has publicly scorned the property tax limits that were imposed by Prop 13 back in 1978 and for California Republicans, if you are for higher taxes, this is heresy of a major order.
HEMMER: Take that and walk right back out of town.
So, Democrats then, do you get a sense right now that quite possibly they could be more unified through this process or these are...
GREENFIELD: Oh, no, these are...
HEMMER: Well, strange things have happened.
GREENFIELD: Yes, but this is...
HEMMER: But is there a sense of unifying or no way?
GREENFIELD: No. This is the Democratic Party. As is often said, when they form a firing squad, they make a circle. There's longstanding bad blood between Gray Davis and Lieutenant Governor Bustamante ever since, believe it or not, Davis canceled some of the lieutenant governor's parking places a few years ago after a political spat. But more important, as Bob Franken just told us, the Davis people didn't want any Democrat on the ballot to force a no vote on recall. Now, Sunday on "Meet The Press," Cruz Bustamante publicly slapped the Davis camp upside the head for allegedly telling people now to contribute to Bustamante.
Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LT. GOV. CRUZ BUSTAMANTE (D), CALIFORNIA: If some of the governor's minions would stop trying to undercut my efforts, I think we could have a very coalesced opportunity for Democrats to be able to make sure that we clearly go after this position. And we have a possibility of having a win-win position on the ballot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GREENFIELD: So, big questions for both parties. As you mentioned, Bill, do Republicans solidify around Schwarzenegger or do conservatives scorn him as too liberal? Do Democrats decide that Davis can be saved or do they abandon him, look at those poll numbers and throw more of their energies and money into holding the governor's mansion for Democrats through Bustamante? And we still have to wait and see, by the way, whether or not this recall is going to take place on October 7. But as Bob Franken told us, the courts seem to be saying no, this is going to be OK. We have Davis' speech. We have Schwarzenegger saying he's willing to consider a debate. We have a Davis person saying we're not in that debate, we're on a different part of the ballot, let the 135 other candidates debate all together.
So it's only the beginning.
HEMMER: And the best case example we have is the election of 2000 in Florida. Two years it took for Florida to get their electronic system up and working for that midterm election of a year ago, and they still had problems.
GREENFIELD: And...
HEMMER: There's no guarantee, even if you delay this thing until March, that it's going to be a perfect election.
GREENFIELD: Right. But on October 7, you're talking about a situation where, I mean forget the punch cards, because, as the judge mentioned, California, after 2000, made, really made efforts to teach people how to use the punch cards. The problem is these new machines that some counties are using have never been used in an election.
HEMMER: That's right. Yes.
Thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
HEMMER: More to talk about, I'm certain, tomorrow.
Good to see you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Recall>
Aired August 19, 2003 - 08:18 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: The Justice Department gives its opinion on California's election recall. But there are still court challenges out there that seek to delay the vote. What they want to do is take it from October 7, move it to the first part of March.
And Bob Franken back with us live in L.A. -- Bob, what, the next hearing in court is the end of this month, the 29th of August.
What's being said about that hearing?
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, the Justice Department yesterday said that, in effect, it had given clearance to the changes that are going to have to be made to this October 7 election.
So it would seem -- of course, judges always have their own agendas -- but it would seem that the Justice Department has answered that judge in San Jose who said that he needed this pre-clearance from the Justice Department.
There's also the case, of course, that is going on, the ACLU case that is going on here in Los Angeles, where the ACLU says that six counties who still use the discredited punch card ballot are, in effect, disenfranchising the voters of those counties because of an inevitable error rate. But the judge expressed quite a bit of skepticism. He said that the people of California have a very strong right to have their wishes met, which is to say, to hold the election. He said there is apparently an awful lot of gross dissatisfaction, to use the words he said he was going to use.
He's going to rule on that by tomorrow. Some time by tomorrow he'll rule on whether the election should be delayed. He said there certainly will be an appeal. He said somebody is going to certainly be dissatisfied -- Bill.
HEMMER: There was a hearing yesterday in L.A.
What happened there?
FRANKEN: Well, that's the one where the judge, in fact, said that the presentation by the ACLU may, in fact, thwart the wishes of the voters, that he may not be inclined to do it. The questioning that he asked of the ACLU was very skeptical, leading to the conclusion that he was leaning toward saying no, he was not going to delay the election. It's important to point out, however, you can never predict what a judge is going to do. HEMMER: Yes, but I think one of the more interesting things later today is that the governor, Gray Davis, is actually going to address the recall issue for the first time in a speech.
What's expected? What's anticipated in that address?
FRANKEN: Well, he apparently, according to his aides, is not going to be apologetic. He's going to say that he realizes that there's a lot of dissatisfaction, that he has to do a better job, that he's been handed a bad deck of cards due to the economy and that he feels that the recall is an effort to thwart the will of the people and the votes.
He's, interestingly, having quite a fight within the Democratic Party with his lieutenant governor, Cruz Bustamante. Now, Cruz Bustamante, the lieutenant governor, is vying for support, saying that there should be a vote no on the recall, vote yes on Cruz Bustamante. Gray Davis is saying the emphasis should be just vote no on the recall. There's a real fight for endorsements and money from various unions and the like. In fact, Bustamante pulled off quite a coup yesterday when he got the endorsement of the state employees union, which is one of the key unions that backs Democrats.
HEMMER: Bob, thanks.
Bob Franken in L.A.
We know back here in the Northeast the electricity was -- kept millions in the dark for quite a while, but as Bob points out, the electricity is still running quite high in California.
Jeff Greenfield, our senior political analyst, here to stop by and look at this one, as well.
California near and dear to your bicoastal heart.
Where do we start today, huh?
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Where we start is -- it's almost inevitable in politics -- with a poll. This one was released over the weekend. The numbers are intriguing, but I think even more intriguing is what it tells us about the terrain of the coming battle. First, to the numbers.
The major finding is that Governor Gray Davis has lost significant ground in his fight to keep his job. The field poll says that if the recall vote were held today, 58 percent would vote to remove Governor Davis, while only 37 percent would retain him. The last poll, a couple of weeks ago, had it 51 to 43 to recall Davis, so clearly he slipped.
By the way, Davis' approval numbers are at 22 percent. That is slightly worse than President Nixon's on the eve of his 1974 resignation. Not a good comparison.
Now, what about the choice to succeed Davis? Well, for those who believe that only Arnold Schwarzenegger and 134 other people are in the race, there may be a surprise here. According to that field poll, the leader right now, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the lone major Democrat, at 25 percent. Schwarzenegger is second with 22 percent. And then come conservative Republicans Tom McClintock with nine percent; Bill Simon, who lost to Davis last November, at eight percent; and former baseball commission Peter Uberoff at five percent.
Now, please, take these numbers with a barrel of salt because no one has any idea who's going to show up for a recall election that's never happened. The betting is that Republicans, the dissatisfied people, are slightly more likely to vote.
HEMMER: A barrel of salt, not just a grain of salt.
GREENFIELD: Not just a grain, right.
HEMMER: If Republicans are more likely to vote on October 7, what's the possibility they could split the vote and actually weaken the chance of a strong Republican candidate?
GREENFIELD: Well, in fact, there's -- that's exactly what some Republicans are worried about. There may be some pressure on Bill Simon and McClintock to withdraw. But you've got to remember, California conservative Republicans have shown no inclination to play that kind of politics. Last fall, they soundly rejected former Los Angeles Mayor Dick Reardon for governor, even though the White House was pushing him as the best candidate to beat Davis.
Schwarzenegger has stirred up a hornet's nest by appointing billionaire Warren Buffett as a senior adviser. Why? Because Buffett has publicly scorned the property tax limits that were imposed by Prop 13 back in 1978 and for California Republicans, if you are for higher taxes, this is heresy of a major order.
HEMMER: Take that and walk right back out of town.
So, Democrats then, do you get a sense right now that quite possibly they could be more unified through this process or these are...
GREENFIELD: Oh, no, these are...
HEMMER: Well, strange things have happened.
GREENFIELD: Yes, but this is...
HEMMER: But is there a sense of unifying or no way?
GREENFIELD: No. This is the Democratic Party. As is often said, when they form a firing squad, they make a circle. There's longstanding bad blood between Gray Davis and Lieutenant Governor Bustamante ever since, believe it or not, Davis canceled some of the lieutenant governor's parking places a few years ago after a political spat. But more important, as Bob Franken just told us, the Davis people didn't want any Democrat on the ballot to force a no vote on recall. Now, Sunday on "Meet The Press," Cruz Bustamante publicly slapped the Davis camp upside the head for allegedly telling people now to contribute to Bustamante.
Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LT. GOV. CRUZ BUSTAMANTE (D), CALIFORNIA: If some of the governor's minions would stop trying to undercut my efforts, I think we could have a very coalesced opportunity for Democrats to be able to make sure that we clearly go after this position. And we have a possibility of having a win-win position on the ballot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GREENFIELD: So, big questions for both parties. As you mentioned, Bill, do Republicans solidify around Schwarzenegger or do conservatives scorn him as too liberal? Do Democrats decide that Davis can be saved or do they abandon him, look at those poll numbers and throw more of their energies and money into holding the governor's mansion for Democrats through Bustamante? And we still have to wait and see, by the way, whether or not this recall is going to take place on October 7. But as Bob Franken told us, the courts seem to be saying no, this is going to be OK. We have Davis' speech. We have Schwarzenegger saying he's willing to consider a debate. We have a Davis person saying we're not in that debate, we're on a different part of the ballot, let the 135 other candidates debate all together.
So it's only the beginning.
HEMMER: And the best case example we have is the election of 2000 in Florida. Two years it took for Florida to get their electronic system up and working for that midterm election of a year ago, and they still had problems.
GREENFIELD: And...
HEMMER: There's no guarantee, even if you delay this thing until March, that it's going to be a perfect election.
GREENFIELD: Right. But on October 7, you're talking about a situation where, I mean forget the punch cards, because, as the judge mentioned, California, after 2000, made, really made efforts to teach people how to use the punch cards. The problem is these new machines that some counties are using have never been used in an election.
HEMMER: That's right. Yes.
Thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
HEMMER: More to talk about, I'm certain, tomorrow.
Good to see you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Recall>
