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American Morning

Discussion About Whether More Troops are Needed in Iraq

Aired August 21, 2003 - 07:11   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Back to James Dobbins right now and the question about military might. Should it be increased right now to ensure a safer environment in Iraq? And should the troops come from the U.S., or should the entire world be called upon to help? And if so, would they contribute?
Veteran diplomat James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation is with us in D.C.

Good morning, sir. Good to have you here.

JAMES DOBBINS, RAND CORPORATION: Good morning.

HEMMER: Your quote today in "The New York Times" is quite startling, up to 500,000 U.S. troops. Is that the answer there?

DOBBINS: Well, I think a study of previous such operations, including in the Balkans, would suggest that to achieve a level of security, such as we were able to achieve early on in Bosnia or Kosovo, could require between 300,000 and 500,000 troops.

HEMMER: How, then, would be it 150,000, 300,000, 500,000 troops, how would that prevent the attack of two days ago on the U.N. headquarters, the sabotage on the oil pipeline, the water main in central Baghdad? How do you prevent that by throwing more people on the problem?

DOBBINS: Well, I think, first of all, you discourage opposition by creating a pervasive atmosphere of security. It's like the cop on the beat just waiting and deterring crime. Secondly, of course, to the extent that you had defense perimeters around some of these facilities, you would make attacks more difficult.

A study of dozens of previous operations suggest that there is an inverse relationship between the number of troops and the number of casualties suffered and the number of casualties inflicted. When we've done these operations heavy, when we've gone in with an obtrusive large-scale presence that dissuades opposition, such as we did in Germany in the 1940s and Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s, we suffered no casualties whatsoever.

Where we've gone in more lightly and tried to do it more economically, as in Somalia, as in Afghanistan, and now as in Iraq, we find that our forces suffer steady attrition, and also are compelled to inflict larger number of casualties. HEMMER: Well, there are some people who do agree with you. Senator John McCain, on a tour right now in Iraq, is of a similar opinion, not exactly in line with what you're saying, but similar. Listen to what he said yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: I think we're going to have to go to our allies, particularly our NATO allies who we have been with in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan, and ask them for their help and assistance. There is no doubt we need help. We have gotten some. We need more, there is no doubt about that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Senator McCain. Kofi Annan already saying -- I'm quoting the secretary-general -- "I do not see U.N. blue helmets going in at this stage."

How, then, do you recruit international help going to the U.N. today with Secretary Powell's meeting with Kofi Annan?

DOBBINS: Well, I think going to the U.N. is a start, but I think Senator McCain was right. We're going to have to go to our traditional allies. We're going to have to involve NATO, an organization that's much more capable than the United Nations of actually fielding, deploying and controlling a large peacekeeping force.

The U.N. will give sanction for that operation, but that's not going to be a problem if NATO agrees to do it. The difficulty is persuading our allies to join us in this enterprise, and they're not going to be persuaded unless we're going to allow them a voice in its management, as well as a share of its cost.

HEMMER: In a word or two, with India balking, some other countries apparently balking as well, including Japan, maybe some reservations coming from Tokyo, how do you sell it?

DOBBINS: I think that, as I've said, the United States is going to have to offer other countries a voice in the management of the enterprise, as well as a share of the costs. And that voice is going to have to be proportionate to their constitution.

HEMMER: We're...

DOBBINS: And in the Balkans, we contributed only 14 percent of the forces in Kosovo and only 22 percent in Bosnia. Our allies contributed the rest. In Iraq, we're contributing over 90 percent.

HEMMER: James Dobbins, thanks. Good to talk to you from the Rand Center there in D.C.

Kofi Annan will meet with Secretary Powell a bit later today at the U.N., and we will cover that as well, as Michael Okwu was reporting, too, a short time ago. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.







Aired August 21, 2003 - 07:11   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Back to James Dobbins right now and the question about military might. Should it be increased right now to ensure a safer environment in Iraq? And should the troops come from the U.S., or should the entire world be called upon to help? And if so, would they contribute?
Veteran diplomat James Dobbins, director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation is with us in D.C.

Good morning, sir. Good to have you here.

JAMES DOBBINS, RAND CORPORATION: Good morning.

HEMMER: Your quote today in "The New York Times" is quite startling, up to 500,000 U.S. troops. Is that the answer there?

DOBBINS: Well, I think a study of previous such operations, including in the Balkans, would suggest that to achieve a level of security, such as we were able to achieve early on in Bosnia or Kosovo, could require between 300,000 and 500,000 troops.

HEMMER: How, then, would be it 150,000, 300,000, 500,000 troops, how would that prevent the attack of two days ago on the U.N. headquarters, the sabotage on the oil pipeline, the water main in central Baghdad? How do you prevent that by throwing more people on the problem?

DOBBINS: Well, I think, first of all, you discourage opposition by creating a pervasive atmosphere of security. It's like the cop on the beat just waiting and deterring crime. Secondly, of course, to the extent that you had defense perimeters around some of these facilities, you would make attacks more difficult.

A study of dozens of previous operations suggest that there is an inverse relationship between the number of troops and the number of casualties suffered and the number of casualties inflicted. When we've done these operations heavy, when we've gone in with an obtrusive large-scale presence that dissuades opposition, such as we did in Germany in the 1940s and Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s, we suffered no casualties whatsoever.

Where we've gone in more lightly and tried to do it more economically, as in Somalia, as in Afghanistan, and now as in Iraq, we find that our forces suffer steady attrition, and also are compelled to inflict larger number of casualties. HEMMER: Well, there are some people who do agree with you. Senator John McCain, on a tour right now in Iraq, is of a similar opinion, not exactly in line with what you're saying, but similar. Listen to what he said yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: I think we're going to have to go to our allies, particularly our NATO allies who we have been with in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan, and ask them for their help and assistance. There is no doubt we need help. We have gotten some. We need more, there is no doubt about that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Senator McCain. Kofi Annan already saying -- I'm quoting the secretary-general -- "I do not see U.N. blue helmets going in at this stage."

How, then, do you recruit international help going to the U.N. today with Secretary Powell's meeting with Kofi Annan?

DOBBINS: Well, I think going to the U.N. is a start, but I think Senator McCain was right. We're going to have to go to our traditional allies. We're going to have to involve NATO, an organization that's much more capable than the United Nations of actually fielding, deploying and controlling a large peacekeeping force.

The U.N. will give sanction for that operation, but that's not going to be a problem if NATO agrees to do it. The difficulty is persuading our allies to join us in this enterprise, and they're not going to be persuaded unless we're going to allow them a voice in its management, as well as a share of its cost.

HEMMER: In a word or two, with India balking, some other countries apparently balking as well, including Japan, maybe some reservations coming from Tokyo, how do you sell it?

DOBBINS: I think that, as I've said, the United States is going to have to offer other countries a voice in the management of the enterprise, as well as a share of the costs. And that voice is going to have to be proportionate to their constitution.

HEMMER: We're...

DOBBINS: And in the Balkans, we contributed only 14 percent of the forces in Kosovo and only 22 percent in Bosnia. Our allies contributed the rest. In Iraq, we're contributing over 90 percent.

HEMMER: James Dobbins, thanks. Good to talk to you from the Rand Center there in D.C.

Kofi Annan will meet with Secretary Powell a bit later today at the U.N., and we will cover that as well, as Michael Okwu was reporting, too, a short time ago. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.