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American Morning

Polls Show Gain in Support for California Democrats; Interview With Daniel Weintraub

Aired August 25, 2003 - 09:14   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Several weekend developments indicate that the race for governor of California is tightening. The latest poll indicates that the state's No. 2 Democrat is ahead of its best-known Republican. And the field has lost a well-known name as well.
Let's get details now from CNN's Bob Franken who joins us from Los Angeles this morning. Bob, I guess Democrats must be embracing at least these new poll numbers. Right?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think so, given the fact that in this yo-yo campaign, their man is now in the up position, they're man being Cruz Bustamante, the lieutenant governor who is one of the 135 running to be the governor if Gray Davis, the current governor, is recalled.

Now, Democrats are also quite excited about the fact that the animosity toward Gray Davis seems to be subsiding just a little bit. The governor has now only 50 percent of those who responded to the poll, the likely voters questioned by "The L.A. Times." Fifty percent said they want him recalled, 45 percent said they are against the idea of a recall. That's a huge jump in the against column, which it shows just how tough things have been for Gray Davis, that they're considering that a positive development.

As for Bustamante, he is pulling way ahead of Arnold Schwarzenegger in this poll, but that compares with another credible poll done just a few days ago which showed Arnold Schwarzenegger ahead of Bustamante by about eight points.

So it's one of those things right now where it's extremely volatile in California. Part of the problem, Soledad, it's extremely difficult to do a poll in this. There's really no model for this.

O'BRIEN: Well, so what are the Republicans saying about these poll numbers? And as you say, that seem to just fluctuate every single time another poll is done?

FRANKEN: Well the Republicans have a problem. They have a number of candidates who are siphoning off strengthening from Arnold Schwarzenegger. One of them, of course, pulled out, Bill Simon. He's the man who ran unsuccessfully against Gray Davis just eight months ago. He was only polling 6 percent in that "The L.A. Times" poll, and that's consistent with others.

However, there's a man by the name of Tom McClintock who is really the favorite of conservatives. He's pulls in a 12 percent. There's Peter Ueberroth who mainly gets Republican votes. And so there will probably be continuing pressure on some of these Republicans to get out and favor Schwarzenegger. But they're being quite defiant and saying, no, they're in the race until the end.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Bob Franken in Los Angeles this morning. Bob, thanks.

So what could Bill Simon's departure mean for the rest of the field? With us now from Sacramento, columnist Daniel Weintraub of "The Sacramento Bee." Good morning, nice to you have you, thanks for joining us.

DANIEL WEINTRAUB, "THE SACRAMENTO BEE": Good morning.

O'BRIEN: In a nutshell, Bill Simon's departure, what does it mean?

WEINTRAUB: In the short term I think actually could be more trouble for Arnold, because Simon was competing with state Senator Tom McClintock for the more conservative wing of the Republican Party. And if Simon's votes go towards McClintock that's going to make him appear to be even more viable, possibly push him up into the mid to high teens in the polls, which will embolden him and make him think that he's got a better shot of a knocking off Arnold for the Republican leadership in this race.

O'BRIEN: At the same time, won't he feel start feeling pressure from Republican groups who are trying to weed out the field so that the vote isn't split?

WEINTRAUB: I'm sure he will feel that pressure. But knowing Senator McClintock as I do I wouldn't expect him to react to that, at least any time soon. He's very committed to this cause. He's been talking about the economy and fiscal issues in California for 20 years. And I don't expect him just to step aside for Schwarzenegger because some party leaders have asked him to. That's not the kind of guy he is.

As we get down towards election day, maybe there will be different calculations going on. But I don't expect him to do anything at least for the next few weeks.

O'BRIEN: This new poll, 50 percent said they would recall Davis, 45 percent say no, 5 percent undecided. In addition, 50 percent of the people asked said that they could actually change their minds. So to some degree, the poll doesn't really spell out a whole heck of a lot.

I guess my question would be -- I always thought it was sort of strange Gray Davis was saying vote against the recall. But if you're voting for the recall, vote for Cruz Bustamante. But now it kind of seems like maybe that message has worked?

WEINTRAUB: Well the governor hasn't quite gone that far yet. A lot of the Democratic hierarchy in California is saying that. But we should be clear that Governor Davis himself has never said vote for Bustamante in the second part.

As far as the strategy, yes it may be working. Then again, it's very dangerous to compare one poll to another from different polling organizations. It's best to compare "The L.A. Times" poll over time or some of these other polls over time because they use different methods, different screens for deciding who the likely voters will be, different questions and techniques.

So I would caution against trying to compare one poll to another on the same question. It could be -- could be dangerous.

O'BRIEN: Good advice there. And you're right. The governor has said the only part of the ballot that affects me is the first part. Vote no against the recall, is really what he specifically said.

We don't have a ton of time, but Cruz Bustamante leading in this latest poll by 35 percent. Arnold Schwarzenegger at 22 percent. Do you think Bustamante can hang on to that lead?

WEINTRAUB: I think that's about where he's going to be for the next, you know, many weeks, as this race unfolds. I could see him maybe creeping up towards 40 percent. I don't think he's going to get much higher than that.

The question is whether Arnold can start to close the gap with some of -- and these Republicans perhaps dropping out. Or the voters who maybe aren't polled who are occasional voters start getting picked up in the polls. I think there's a lot of people out there who are not normal, regular parts of the political process who are going to participate this time, and that's Arnold's secret weapon.

O'BRIEN: Daniel Weintraub from "The Sacramento Bee" with us this morning. Thanks for your time.

WEINTRAUB: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Interview With Daniel Weintraub>


Aired August 25, 2003 - 09:14   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Several weekend developments indicate that the race for governor of California is tightening. The latest poll indicates that the state's No. 2 Democrat is ahead of its best-known Republican. And the field has lost a well-known name as well.
Let's get details now from CNN's Bob Franken who joins us from Los Angeles this morning. Bob, I guess Democrats must be embracing at least these new poll numbers. Right?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think so, given the fact that in this yo-yo campaign, their man is now in the up position, they're man being Cruz Bustamante, the lieutenant governor who is one of the 135 running to be the governor if Gray Davis, the current governor, is recalled.

Now, Democrats are also quite excited about the fact that the animosity toward Gray Davis seems to be subsiding just a little bit. The governor has now only 50 percent of those who responded to the poll, the likely voters questioned by "The L.A. Times." Fifty percent said they want him recalled, 45 percent said they are against the idea of a recall. That's a huge jump in the against column, which it shows just how tough things have been for Gray Davis, that they're considering that a positive development.

As for Bustamante, he is pulling way ahead of Arnold Schwarzenegger in this poll, but that compares with another credible poll done just a few days ago which showed Arnold Schwarzenegger ahead of Bustamante by about eight points.

So it's one of those things right now where it's extremely volatile in California. Part of the problem, Soledad, it's extremely difficult to do a poll in this. There's really no model for this.

O'BRIEN: Well, so what are the Republicans saying about these poll numbers? And as you say, that seem to just fluctuate every single time another poll is done?

FRANKEN: Well the Republicans have a problem. They have a number of candidates who are siphoning off strengthening from Arnold Schwarzenegger. One of them, of course, pulled out, Bill Simon. He's the man who ran unsuccessfully against Gray Davis just eight months ago. He was only polling 6 percent in that "The L.A. Times" poll, and that's consistent with others.

However, there's a man by the name of Tom McClintock who is really the favorite of conservatives. He's pulls in a 12 percent. There's Peter Ueberroth who mainly gets Republican votes. And so there will probably be continuing pressure on some of these Republicans to get out and favor Schwarzenegger. But they're being quite defiant and saying, no, they're in the race until the end.

SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Bob Franken in Los Angeles this morning. Bob, thanks.

So what could Bill Simon's departure mean for the rest of the field? With us now from Sacramento, columnist Daniel Weintraub of "The Sacramento Bee." Good morning, nice to you have you, thanks for joining us.

DANIEL WEINTRAUB, "THE SACRAMENTO BEE": Good morning.

O'BRIEN: In a nutshell, Bill Simon's departure, what does it mean?

WEINTRAUB: In the short term I think actually could be more trouble for Arnold, because Simon was competing with state Senator Tom McClintock for the more conservative wing of the Republican Party. And if Simon's votes go towards McClintock that's going to make him appear to be even more viable, possibly push him up into the mid to high teens in the polls, which will embolden him and make him think that he's got a better shot of a knocking off Arnold for the Republican leadership in this race.

O'BRIEN: At the same time, won't he feel start feeling pressure from Republican groups who are trying to weed out the field so that the vote isn't split?

WEINTRAUB: I'm sure he will feel that pressure. But knowing Senator McClintock as I do I wouldn't expect him to react to that, at least any time soon. He's very committed to this cause. He's been talking about the economy and fiscal issues in California for 20 years. And I don't expect him just to step aside for Schwarzenegger because some party leaders have asked him to. That's not the kind of guy he is.

As we get down towards election day, maybe there will be different calculations going on. But I don't expect him to do anything at least for the next few weeks.

O'BRIEN: This new poll, 50 percent said they would recall Davis, 45 percent say no, 5 percent undecided. In addition, 50 percent of the people asked said that they could actually change their minds. So to some degree, the poll doesn't really spell out a whole heck of a lot.

I guess my question would be -- I always thought it was sort of strange Gray Davis was saying vote against the recall. But if you're voting for the recall, vote for Cruz Bustamante. But now it kind of seems like maybe that message has worked?

WEINTRAUB: Well the governor hasn't quite gone that far yet. A lot of the Democratic hierarchy in California is saying that. But we should be clear that Governor Davis himself has never said vote for Bustamante in the second part.

As far as the strategy, yes it may be working. Then again, it's very dangerous to compare one poll to another from different polling organizations. It's best to compare "The L.A. Times" poll over time or some of these other polls over time because they use different methods, different screens for deciding who the likely voters will be, different questions and techniques.

So I would caution against trying to compare one poll to another on the same question. It could be -- could be dangerous.

O'BRIEN: Good advice there. And you're right. The governor has said the only part of the ballot that affects me is the first part. Vote no against the recall, is really what he specifically said.

We don't have a ton of time, but Cruz Bustamante leading in this latest poll by 35 percent. Arnold Schwarzenegger at 22 percent. Do you think Bustamante can hang on to that lead?

WEINTRAUB: I think that's about where he's going to be for the next, you know, many weeks, as this race unfolds. I could see him maybe creeping up towards 40 percent. I don't think he's going to get much higher than that.

The question is whether Arnold can start to close the gap with some of -- and these Republicans perhaps dropping out. Or the voters who maybe aren't polled who are occasional voters start getting picked up in the polls. I think there's a lot of people out there who are not normal, regular parts of the political process who are going to participate this time, and that's Arnold's secret weapon.

O'BRIEN: Daniel Weintraub from "The Sacramento Bee" with us this morning. Thanks for your time.

WEINTRAUB: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com





Interview With Daniel Weintraub>