Return to Transcripts main page
American Morning
Picture Changes in California Recall Vote
Aired August 25, 2003 - 08:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, the weekend brought no days off as far as surprises were concerned, That California recall vote, more and more don't blink, you might miss something. The picture changed quickly with some unexpected poll numbers and the withdrawal of a rather large name candidate.
Our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, here this morning on AMERICAN MORNING to take us through the numbers.
Don't blink, I say.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Nope.
HEMMER: Because it's going to change again.
GREENFIELD: That's right. These come from a "Los Angeles Times" poll released over the weekend and here's the first surprise. Now, you know that Gray Davis's goose was cooked. According to last week's polls, well, the goose is looking a bit under done. The newest poll says that while 50 percent of likely voters says they vote for a recall, 45 percent say they would oppose it. That is a much closer spread than the 20 plus point margin that favored Davis's ouster just last week.
Second, that same poll says that among the candidates on the ballot to replace Davis if the recall succeeds, that famous celebrity, not Gary Coleman, now trails. In fact, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the one major Democrat in the race, leads with 35 percent of the vote. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, is next with 22 percent. And he, in turn, is trailed by three other Republicans. State Senator Tom McClintock has 12 percent; former baseball commissioner and Olympic czar Peter Uberoff is at seven percent; and businessman Bill Simon has six percent. Simon pulled out of the race over the weekend, but his name will be on the ballot.
Now, friends, at the risk of repeating myself, which I intend to do every time we do this story, these poll numbers are written in sand or in water or on the wind. First, the poll itself shows 46 percent of those say it's entirely possible they might change their minds. Second, voters have never had a recall ballot like this to consider, so we don't know who will turn out, whether people will understand the ballot, skip the first or second part of the ballot.
Bill, we don't know.
HEMMER: That last number you give us striking to me, 46 percent say they may change their minds again before October 7 comes around. GREENFIELD: Yes.
HEMMER: These polls also indicate some sort of change in the race, too. How do you see that?
GREENFIELD: Yes, well, you'll remember that when all this started, we were focused on the chaotic nature of the ballot, 135 candidates, no runoff, someone can win with 15 percent of the vote. I think now it seems to be shaping up as a much more traditional partisan Republican/Democratic race. The Democrats in California have finally figured out their coherent message. It's one that Gray Davis has reluctantly signed onto, as has the entire California Democratic congressional delegation and the unions that provide a lot of the money. The Democrats say vote no on the recall and yes on Lieutenant Governor Bustamante.
Now, I think -- and I have no polls to prove this -- call it a semi-educated guess, if you will, that the call among Republicans for other candidates to clear the field for Schwarzenegger may have helped Bustamante and Davis by defining this whole battle more in partisan terms.
HEMMER: Take that last point one step further. Bill Simon is out. Is there more pressure right now on the other Republicans to get out so you don't fracture the vote?
GREENFIELD: Oh, I think you'll see a lot of that, experience on Senator McClintock, a state senator. He's a veteran of Sacramento politics. He is a true believing conservative, unlike Schwarzenegger, who is, on social issues, a little more liberal. Peter Uberoff, who actually lists himself as an independent on the ballot and is independently wealthy, might not be that susceptible to that pressure. McClintock has said, look, it's not fair for celebrity to be the defining issue, so we'll see.
And one last note about vote splitting that brings back memories of 2000 and Ralph Nader. Right now the two candidates of what we'll call the left, Adrianna Huffington and the Green Party candidate, Peter Camejo, share a total of only four percent of the vote. That happens to be exactly what Ralph Nader got in Florida back in 2000, and that was way more than enough, as you well know, Bill, having hung out there all those weeks, to make the difference.
So, should this race look very tight as we get closer to October 7, those two candidates, even with that small share of the vote, could wind up being really significant. So, like you say, as they say about the weather, if you don't like it, just hang around awhile, it's always going to change.
HEMMER: It's going to change.
Yes, I think ultimately, though, if you're going to crown Bustamante the next governor, you're going to crown Schwarzenegger the next governor, these polls show not so fast. Because the recall vote, with that 50 percent margin right now, may not even go through. GREENFIELD: That's the one to keep an eye on. The assumption everybody has been making because of these poll numbers that everybody gets ridiculously hypnotized by is well, Davis is down by 20 points, he can't possibly make it. Let's see.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: All right, Bill.
HEMMER: Thirty-seven days in Tallahassee, by the way.
GREENFIELD: I remember.
HEMMER: You want to go to Sacramento?
GREENFIELD: Yes, well...
HEMMER: I think not.
Thanks, Jeff.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired August 25, 2003 - 08:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, the weekend brought no days off as far as surprises were concerned, That California recall vote, more and more don't blink, you might miss something. The picture changed quickly with some unexpected poll numbers and the withdrawal of a rather large name candidate.
Our senior analyst, Jeff Greenfield, here this morning on AMERICAN MORNING to take us through the numbers.
Don't blink, I say.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Nope.
HEMMER: Because it's going to change again.
GREENFIELD: That's right. These come from a "Los Angeles Times" poll released over the weekend and here's the first surprise. Now, you know that Gray Davis's goose was cooked. According to last week's polls, well, the goose is looking a bit under done. The newest poll says that while 50 percent of likely voters says they vote for a recall, 45 percent say they would oppose it. That is a much closer spread than the 20 plus point margin that favored Davis's ouster just last week.
Second, that same poll says that among the candidates on the ballot to replace Davis if the recall succeeds, that famous celebrity, not Gary Coleman, now trails. In fact, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the one major Democrat in the race, leads with 35 percent of the vote. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, is next with 22 percent. And he, in turn, is trailed by three other Republicans. State Senator Tom McClintock has 12 percent; former baseball commissioner and Olympic czar Peter Uberoff is at seven percent; and businessman Bill Simon has six percent. Simon pulled out of the race over the weekend, but his name will be on the ballot.
Now, friends, at the risk of repeating myself, which I intend to do every time we do this story, these poll numbers are written in sand or in water or on the wind. First, the poll itself shows 46 percent of those say it's entirely possible they might change their minds. Second, voters have never had a recall ballot like this to consider, so we don't know who will turn out, whether people will understand the ballot, skip the first or second part of the ballot.
Bill, we don't know.
HEMMER: That last number you give us striking to me, 46 percent say they may change their minds again before October 7 comes around. GREENFIELD: Yes.
HEMMER: These polls also indicate some sort of change in the race, too. How do you see that?
GREENFIELD: Yes, well, you'll remember that when all this started, we were focused on the chaotic nature of the ballot, 135 candidates, no runoff, someone can win with 15 percent of the vote. I think now it seems to be shaping up as a much more traditional partisan Republican/Democratic race. The Democrats in California have finally figured out their coherent message. It's one that Gray Davis has reluctantly signed onto, as has the entire California Democratic congressional delegation and the unions that provide a lot of the money. The Democrats say vote no on the recall and yes on Lieutenant Governor Bustamante.
Now, I think -- and I have no polls to prove this -- call it a semi-educated guess, if you will, that the call among Republicans for other candidates to clear the field for Schwarzenegger may have helped Bustamante and Davis by defining this whole battle more in partisan terms.
HEMMER: Take that last point one step further. Bill Simon is out. Is there more pressure right now on the other Republicans to get out so you don't fracture the vote?
GREENFIELD: Oh, I think you'll see a lot of that, experience on Senator McClintock, a state senator. He's a veteran of Sacramento politics. He is a true believing conservative, unlike Schwarzenegger, who is, on social issues, a little more liberal. Peter Uberoff, who actually lists himself as an independent on the ballot and is independently wealthy, might not be that susceptible to that pressure. McClintock has said, look, it's not fair for celebrity to be the defining issue, so we'll see.
And one last note about vote splitting that brings back memories of 2000 and Ralph Nader. Right now the two candidates of what we'll call the left, Adrianna Huffington and the Green Party candidate, Peter Camejo, share a total of only four percent of the vote. That happens to be exactly what Ralph Nader got in Florida back in 2000, and that was way more than enough, as you well know, Bill, having hung out there all those weeks, to make the difference.
So, should this race look very tight as we get closer to October 7, those two candidates, even with that small share of the vote, could wind up being really significant. So, like you say, as they say about the weather, if you don't like it, just hang around awhile, it's always going to change.
HEMMER: It's going to change.
Yes, I think ultimately, though, if you're going to crown Bustamante the next governor, you're going to crown Schwarzenegger the next governor, these polls show not so fast. Because the recall vote, with that 50 percent margin right now, may not even go through. GREENFIELD: That's the one to keep an eye on. The assumption everybody has been making because of these poll numbers that everybody gets ridiculously hypnotized by is well, Davis is down by 20 points, he can't possibly make it. Let's see.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: All right, Bill.
HEMMER: Thirty-seven days in Tallahassee, by the way.
GREENFIELD: I remember.
HEMMER: You want to go to Sacramento?
GREENFIELD: Yes, well...
HEMMER: I think not.
Thanks, Jeff.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
