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American Morning
Eve of Multilateral Talks With Pyongyang Over Nuclear Weapons Program
Aired August 26, 2003 - 07:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Turning now to North Korea, this morning, on the eve of multilateral talks with Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons program, South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean patrol boat. Just ahead of tomorrow's talks, Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly arrived in Beijing, as did envoys from Russia, Japan, South Korea and China, all of whom are participating.
Joining us this morning from Washington, D.C. to take a look at what the U.S. has to put on the negotiating table is Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.
He's also written a new book on the diplomatic stalemate with North Korea. It's called "Crisis in the Korean Peninsula."
Michael, good morning.
It's nice to see you.
Thanks for joining us.
MICHAEL O'HANLON, SENIOR FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: My pleasure, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Let's start by talking about the latest reports that Jack Pritchard, who was a special United States envoy in negotiations with North Korea, has resigned. There are some that say he had this major ideological split with the administration on how best to deal with North Korea, the administration favoring a hard-line approach, Jack favoring, apparently, more of a carrot and a stick approach.
So, first, is this an ideological split? And secondly, what do you think the impact of his departure will be on these talks?
O'HANLON: Well, Soledad, I don't think the talks were going to accomplish that much regardless, because we don't really have a big proposal we're willing to make to the North Koreans. We still say you give up your nuclear weapons first and then we'll talk about everything else. I don't think that program is, or that approach is likely to work out very well, because the North Koreans don't have anything except their nuclear weapons. So they're not likely to give that up first. That's their best bargaining chip.
And I think that's what Jack Pritchard believes himself, although, of course, he'd be a better person to reflect on his own views than I. But my guess is that he's frustrated by the inability of the Bush administration to come up with a real proposal and he thinks we're just wasting time. The nuclear reprocessing continues. The crisis actually is getting worse. It lurks below the front pages on Iraq and the Middle East, and yet it's probably a more serious threat to the United States.
So this is really going to be, I think, an excessively slow start to negotiations that are already long overdue.
O'BRIEN: So you basically laid out the two sides, North Korea and the U.S. So how do you bring the sides together when they're essentially diametrically opposed in what they want to accomplish?
O'HANLON: Well, I like to use this saying of Secretary Rumsfeld, when you have a problem you can't solve, enlarge it. We can't really negotiate just on the nuclear weapons for the reasons you and I were discussing a second ago. So we have to say to the North Koreans, let's make a bigger deal. We're going to demand a lot more of you. The core of this problem is the nature of your regime, your economy, which is failing. We have to push you in a direction to reform those things and if you're willing to do it, by cutting your military, by accepting some China style economic reforms, if you do those things, we will give you benefits. We will give you aid to develop your infrastructure. We will ease our trade sanctions. We'll give you diplomatic ties. We'll try to stabilize the political environment so investors want to go into North Korea.
And put all of that on the table up front. Because if you just focus on the nuclear weapons, it becomes a negotiation that feels more like giving in to blackmail, and that's why President Bush doesn't like it.
O'BRIEN: Well, two problems there. First, the president does not want to negotiate with Kim Jong Il. He absolutely loathes the man. I don't think that's an overstatement. And secondly, the North Koreans lie. Many people have said that, on both sides of the issue. And I don't think that's an over statement either.
How do you deal with both of those issue?
O'HANLON: You're right about both those points. First of all, the president in a sense is right to say we can't just deal with the North Koreans on their terms, we've got to demand a much broader set of reforms inside of North Korea. That's where I think Mr. Bush's instincts have been correct, but he hasn't fleshed them out. He hasn't really developed this into a proposal. And that's the main point I think we've got to focus on, make this a bigger deal.
Now, the North Koreans cannot be trusted, you're right. That's why you have to have to verify each and every thing they do. You've got to get inspectors back into North Korea to see what's going on with their nuclear program, to watch them reduce their conventional military, to eliminate their chemical weapons, to eliminate their ballistic missiles. There have to be a lot of demands we place on North Korea with a threat to the North Koreans that if we do not make progress diplomatically, more coercive measures will be required, because we cannot watch them develop a nuclear arsenal before our eyes. I think you put all of that together in one message, get the South Koreans, Japanese and Chinese to agree, as well, and you've got a hope for progress. But we'd the have anything close to that kind of a plan right now.
O'BRIEN: Michael O'Hanlon.
Thanks for joining us, Michael.
The back, again, called "Crisis On the Korean Peninsula."
Appreciate your time.
O'HANLON: Thanks, Soledad.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Weapons Program>
Aired August 26, 2003 - 07:32 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Turning now to North Korea, this morning, on the eve of multilateral talks with Pyongyang over its nuclear weapons program, South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean patrol boat. Just ahead of tomorrow's talks, Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly arrived in Beijing, as did envoys from Russia, Japan, South Korea and China, all of whom are participating.
Joining us this morning from Washington, D.C. to take a look at what the U.S. has to put on the negotiating table is Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution.
He's also written a new book on the diplomatic stalemate with North Korea. It's called "Crisis in the Korean Peninsula."
Michael, good morning.
It's nice to see you.
Thanks for joining us.
MICHAEL O'HANLON, SENIOR FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: My pleasure, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Let's start by talking about the latest reports that Jack Pritchard, who was a special United States envoy in negotiations with North Korea, has resigned. There are some that say he had this major ideological split with the administration on how best to deal with North Korea, the administration favoring a hard-line approach, Jack favoring, apparently, more of a carrot and a stick approach.
So, first, is this an ideological split? And secondly, what do you think the impact of his departure will be on these talks?
O'HANLON: Well, Soledad, I don't think the talks were going to accomplish that much regardless, because we don't really have a big proposal we're willing to make to the North Koreans. We still say you give up your nuclear weapons first and then we'll talk about everything else. I don't think that program is, or that approach is likely to work out very well, because the North Koreans don't have anything except their nuclear weapons. So they're not likely to give that up first. That's their best bargaining chip.
And I think that's what Jack Pritchard believes himself, although, of course, he'd be a better person to reflect on his own views than I. But my guess is that he's frustrated by the inability of the Bush administration to come up with a real proposal and he thinks we're just wasting time. The nuclear reprocessing continues. The crisis actually is getting worse. It lurks below the front pages on Iraq and the Middle East, and yet it's probably a more serious threat to the United States.
So this is really going to be, I think, an excessively slow start to negotiations that are already long overdue.
O'BRIEN: So you basically laid out the two sides, North Korea and the U.S. So how do you bring the sides together when they're essentially diametrically opposed in what they want to accomplish?
O'HANLON: Well, I like to use this saying of Secretary Rumsfeld, when you have a problem you can't solve, enlarge it. We can't really negotiate just on the nuclear weapons for the reasons you and I were discussing a second ago. So we have to say to the North Koreans, let's make a bigger deal. We're going to demand a lot more of you. The core of this problem is the nature of your regime, your economy, which is failing. We have to push you in a direction to reform those things and if you're willing to do it, by cutting your military, by accepting some China style economic reforms, if you do those things, we will give you benefits. We will give you aid to develop your infrastructure. We will ease our trade sanctions. We'll give you diplomatic ties. We'll try to stabilize the political environment so investors want to go into North Korea.
And put all of that on the table up front. Because if you just focus on the nuclear weapons, it becomes a negotiation that feels more like giving in to blackmail, and that's why President Bush doesn't like it.
O'BRIEN: Well, two problems there. First, the president does not want to negotiate with Kim Jong Il. He absolutely loathes the man. I don't think that's an overstatement. And secondly, the North Koreans lie. Many people have said that, on both sides of the issue. And I don't think that's an over statement either.
How do you deal with both of those issue?
O'HANLON: You're right about both those points. First of all, the president in a sense is right to say we can't just deal with the North Koreans on their terms, we've got to demand a much broader set of reforms inside of North Korea. That's where I think Mr. Bush's instincts have been correct, but he hasn't fleshed them out. He hasn't really developed this into a proposal. And that's the main point I think we've got to focus on, make this a bigger deal.
Now, the North Koreans cannot be trusted, you're right. That's why you have to have to verify each and every thing they do. You've got to get inspectors back into North Korea to see what's going on with their nuclear program, to watch them reduce their conventional military, to eliminate their chemical weapons, to eliminate their ballistic missiles. There have to be a lot of demands we place on North Korea with a threat to the North Koreans that if we do not make progress diplomatically, more coercive measures will be required, because we cannot watch them develop a nuclear arsenal before our eyes. I think you put all of that together in one message, get the South Koreans, Japanese and Chinese to agree, as well, and you've got a hope for progress. But we'd the have anything close to that kind of a plan right now.
O'BRIEN: Michael O'Hanlon.
Thanks for joining us, Michael.
The back, again, called "Crisis On the Korean Peninsula."
Appreciate your time.
O'HANLON: Thanks, Soledad.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Weapons Program>
