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American Morning

Taliban Regrouping in Afghanistan

Aired August 26, 2003 - 08:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, ANCHOR: Soledad, Afghan troop troops backed by U.S. air power killed an estimated 14 suspected Taliban fighters yesterday. It's possible that number could go much higher.
It's part of a growing number of attacks against such forces in the country. So then, the question today: Is the Taliban regrouping in Afghanistan and how big of a threat could this be?

Barnett Rubin, director of studies at New York University's Center on International Cooperation, our guest here. Also wrote a book last year called "The Fragmentation of Afghanistan."

Good morning. Nice to have you here.

BARNETT RUBIN, DIRECTOR OF STUDIES, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY CENTER ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: Good morning.

HEMMER: What do we know right now, in fact, based on the troop strength of the Taliban in Afghanistan?

RUBIN: They don't have much troop strength on the ground. They're waging a guerilla war, largely from sanctuaries that they have in Pakistan. But it's clear that a year and a half after their defeat they have regrouped and are forming forces that are larger than before.

HEMMER: You mentioned Pakistan. Is this an indication that the country cannot control extremists there?

RUBIN: Absolutely. They admit that they can't fully control them. There are whole areas of the country where the government doesn't have a presence along the border with Afghanistan.

HEMMER: You believe Musharraf can only be pushed so far. Why is that?

RUBIN: The problem he faces is that the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is very unpopular with many people in Pakistan and the provincial provinces in the border on Afghanistan are controlled by fundamentalist parties that sympathize with the Taliban.

HEMMER: So here's what's going to happen from a U.S. perspective. Sometime very soon, the amount of money going into that project in Afghanistan is going to increase substantially, from $900 million to about $1.8 billion. Is this amount of money, can any amount of money repair that country?

RUBIN: It's going to take a long time. It's been 30 years and the country was very poor to begin with.

The main problem isn't the Taliban offenses which are just along the border with Pakistan. It's the breakdown of almost everything in Afghanistan: the government, the economy, basic social institutions.

HEMMER: Is there any visible signs of progress and reconstruction today?

RUBIN: There are visible signs of progress. You see them in different parts of the country. But still, most people say they have not seen the kind of major improvement in their life that they expected and hoped for. But surveys show that most Afghans still are hopeful about the future.

HEMMER: So here are the obvious questions, then. Hamid Karzai is the man in charge and the U.S. has backed him from the beginning. There was an assassination attempt on his life previously, perhaps more than one, depending on the number of plots that have been uncovered.

If he is taken out, does Kabul still remain stable? Does it remain on track?

RUBIN: I -- that certainly would be a major crisis, because he's the one figure that the different factions were able to agree on. I think that they would probably overcome it, but it shows how fragile the situation is that one individual can be so important.

HEMMER: How would the U.S. ever know whether or not they're winning in Afghanistan? How do you judge success in that country?

RUBIN: Well, that's a very good question. And part of the problem we face that the task is not a military one where you can gauge success by whether you push troops off of a certain territory.

I think the way we would see success is the government gradually extending its control, warlords giving up their arms and their men either becoming employed or joining national security forces. But again, it's not a short-term process that can be timed along with the U.S. election cycle.

HEMMER: Some are suggesting already that it's the forgotten war in the war on terror, although it is the origination point for it.

When I left Kandahar after spending six weeks there back in December and January of 2002, I told people that it was a country that was much closer to the fifth world than the third world. It is a country in need of everything. I think sometimes we forget and do not have that insight into what's happening there.

RUBIN: It's almost impossible for people living in a country like the United States to imagine what it is like to live in a country like Afghanistan.

HEMMER: True. Barnett Rubin, thanks. "The Fragmentation of Afghanistan" is your book. Nice to talk to you today. RUBIN: Very nice.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired August 26, 2003 - 08:17   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, ANCHOR: Soledad, Afghan troop troops backed by U.S. air power killed an estimated 14 suspected Taliban fighters yesterday. It's possible that number could go much higher.
It's part of a growing number of attacks against such forces in the country. So then, the question today: Is the Taliban regrouping in Afghanistan and how big of a threat could this be?

Barnett Rubin, director of studies at New York University's Center on International Cooperation, our guest here. Also wrote a book last year called "The Fragmentation of Afghanistan."

Good morning. Nice to have you here.

BARNETT RUBIN, DIRECTOR OF STUDIES, NEW YORK UNIVERSITY CENTER ON INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION: Good morning.

HEMMER: What do we know right now, in fact, based on the troop strength of the Taliban in Afghanistan?

RUBIN: They don't have much troop strength on the ground. They're waging a guerilla war, largely from sanctuaries that they have in Pakistan. But it's clear that a year and a half after their defeat they have regrouped and are forming forces that are larger than before.

HEMMER: You mentioned Pakistan. Is this an indication that the country cannot control extremists there?

RUBIN: Absolutely. They admit that they can't fully control them. There are whole areas of the country where the government doesn't have a presence along the border with Afghanistan.

HEMMER: You believe Musharraf can only be pushed so far. Why is that?

RUBIN: The problem he faces is that the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is very unpopular with many people in Pakistan and the provincial provinces in the border on Afghanistan are controlled by fundamentalist parties that sympathize with the Taliban.

HEMMER: So here's what's going to happen from a U.S. perspective. Sometime very soon, the amount of money going into that project in Afghanistan is going to increase substantially, from $900 million to about $1.8 billion. Is this amount of money, can any amount of money repair that country?

RUBIN: It's going to take a long time. It's been 30 years and the country was very poor to begin with.

The main problem isn't the Taliban offenses which are just along the border with Pakistan. It's the breakdown of almost everything in Afghanistan: the government, the economy, basic social institutions.

HEMMER: Is there any visible signs of progress and reconstruction today?

RUBIN: There are visible signs of progress. You see them in different parts of the country. But still, most people say they have not seen the kind of major improvement in their life that they expected and hoped for. But surveys show that most Afghans still are hopeful about the future.

HEMMER: So here are the obvious questions, then. Hamid Karzai is the man in charge and the U.S. has backed him from the beginning. There was an assassination attempt on his life previously, perhaps more than one, depending on the number of plots that have been uncovered.

If he is taken out, does Kabul still remain stable? Does it remain on track?

RUBIN: I -- that certainly would be a major crisis, because he's the one figure that the different factions were able to agree on. I think that they would probably overcome it, but it shows how fragile the situation is that one individual can be so important.

HEMMER: How would the U.S. ever know whether or not they're winning in Afghanistan? How do you judge success in that country?

RUBIN: Well, that's a very good question. And part of the problem we face that the task is not a military one where you can gauge success by whether you push troops off of a certain territory.

I think the way we would see success is the government gradually extending its control, warlords giving up their arms and their men either becoming employed or joining national security forces. But again, it's not a short-term process that can be timed along with the U.S. election cycle.

HEMMER: Some are suggesting already that it's the forgotten war in the war on terror, although it is the origination point for it.

When I left Kandahar after spending six weeks there back in December and January of 2002, I told people that it was a country that was much closer to the fifth world than the third world. It is a country in need of everything. I think sometimes we forget and do not have that insight into what's happening there.

RUBIN: It's almost impossible for people living in a country like the United States to imagine what it is like to live in a country like Afghanistan.

HEMMER: True. Barnett Rubin, thanks. "The Fragmentation of Afghanistan" is your book. Nice to talk to you today. RUBIN: Very nice.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com