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American Morning
Rumors, Front-Runners, Other Political Fun
Aired August 29, 2003 - 09:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: The latest controversy in the California recall is just one story in what promises to be a busy political season ahead. CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here to talk about the political fallout he envisions for this fall. Good morning, Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Yes, this is a fall preview that's not about fashions or TV shows, it is about politics.
And we begin in California where trends often start. Political junkies owe California a huge debt, because the autumn before presidential campaign years is usually the least interesting part of the four-year election cycle.
But this year, we have got the California governor's recall election on October 7. The next five and a half weeks will bring with it millions of dollars in political advertising, a series of debates, and you may have heard about this, the latest attempt to convert celebrity status into political clout.
And the questions are interesting. Will Republicans clear the field for Arnold Schwarzenegger? Will Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante rally Democrats to his side? And if he does, will that doom Governor Davis' efforts to keep his job in the first place?
And by the way, while the election is supposed to take place on October 7, a federal appeals court, one famous for its judicial activism, is considering a civil rights claim that the election should be delayed until spring. Just keep an eye out for that possible bombshell, as we cliche mongers like to say.
Now, on the president's campaign front, the question for the fall is simple: can Howard Dean keep on keeping on? When the year began, the former Vermont Lieutenant -- Governor -- sorry -- was the who's he candidate.
But since he raised $7 million in the second quarter this year, Dean has been the Democratic story. His crowds have been enormous. Some 10,000 to 15,000 people in New York's Brian Park this past week. He leads the latest unreliable New Hampshire primary poll by 21 percentage points -- they're all unreliable at this point.
And the Dean campaign says it's going to raise $10 million this quarter which means they really think it'll be much more. He's even hinting that he might emulate George W. Bush from 2000 and opt out of public financing. that would free him to raise unlimited amounts. Now, OK. It's 4 1/2 months before anybody votes. But still, one key question is whether Dean can sustain this and whether the key power bases in the Democratic Party -- labor, minorities, elected officials -- see Dean as acceptable or as an unelectable threat. Which in turn leads to another question: who becomes the un-Dean?
Here's what I mean by that. For the other major contenders, Dean's rise offers a burden and a promise. Dean has sucked most of the oxygen out of the arena. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry once assumed to be the favorite in New Hampshire now has to struggle to be competitive.
Others, Senators John Edwards of North Carolina, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, Bob Graham of Florida are barely above water. And Graham and Edwards have Senate seats up next year. There are some who skeptics doubt whether they're even going to stay in the presidential race. And Congressman Dick Gephardt, a long-time labor favorite, really want the ALF-CIO endorsement in October to gain some traction.
So this fall is going tell us whether any other Democrat also will jump into the race. There's much speculation that retired General Wesley Clark might jump in. That would deprive Senator Kerry of the distinction of being the only Vietnam veteran.
And, of course, there's always Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton who, reports longtime political journalist Richard Reeves, might be mulling this notion over next weekend.
Now, what's that promise I talked about? If the major Democratic constituencies look at Dean and they say, No way, then any one of these other candidates could gain a foot hold by the by becoming the un-Dean.
Now, if you look back at history, can't find a recent example where a stop the front-runner's strategy ever worked in a primaries.
And finally, as we've been hearing all morning, this fall may bring with it some tentative answers to questions that are beyond the capacity of any political probe to control on three major issues: Iraq, obviously, the Middle East, the economy. Events could turn the entire picture upside down.
President Bush's stature after 9/11 increased markedly, but if Iraq grows more violent and more unsettled and more expensive with the Middle East peace process that the Iraq victory was supposed to hasten keeps receding, those credentials might be vulnerable.
And lastly, remember this, voters tend to shape their views on economic matters by what they think as the campaign begins. George Bush's father lost his job on economic matters even though the recession had ended long before election day.
So, Anderson, if the economy booms or withers as the leaves fall, that is largely going to determine whether voters go into next year on an optimistic or pessimistic note. In other words, a huge amount of really important political news this season, something to occupy every journalist, which is why I'm taking the next two weeks off.
COOPER: Oh, excellent.
GREENFIELD: But I'll be thinking of you almost every day.
COOPER: Oh, yeah, I'm sure you will. And watching me no doubt on the evening program.
GREENFIELD: Oh, I'm sure.
COOPER: Yeah, yeah.
Let me just quickly ask you, you mentioned other potential candidates. Senator Clinton, Wesley Clark. Al Gore, possible? He said it's not going to happen but -- never say never?
GREENFIELD: If it weren't for rumors like that, no doubt political junkies would turn to a life of crime and drugs. So I'm all for these rumors. As they used to say about after-school programs, it keeps the kids off the streets.
I think the Gore one is like -- you know, if you can get a billion and one odds, bet a buck.
COOPER: Really? OK. All right, we'll take that. Jeff Greenfield, thanks very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired August 29, 2003 - 09:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: The latest controversy in the California recall is just one story in what promises to be a busy political season ahead. CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here to talk about the political fallout he envisions for this fall. Good morning, Jeff.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Yes, this is a fall preview that's not about fashions or TV shows, it is about politics.
And we begin in California where trends often start. Political junkies owe California a huge debt, because the autumn before presidential campaign years is usually the least interesting part of the four-year election cycle.
But this year, we have got the California governor's recall election on October 7. The next five and a half weeks will bring with it millions of dollars in political advertising, a series of debates, and you may have heard about this, the latest attempt to convert celebrity status into political clout.
And the questions are interesting. Will Republicans clear the field for Arnold Schwarzenegger? Will Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante rally Democrats to his side? And if he does, will that doom Governor Davis' efforts to keep his job in the first place?
And by the way, while the election is supposed to take place on October 7, a federal appeals court, one famous for its judicial activism, is considering a civil rights claim that the election should be delayed until spring. Just keep an eye out for that possible bombshell, as we cliche mongers like to say.
Now, on the president's campaign front, the question for the fall is simple: can Howard Dean keep on keeping on? When the year began, the former Vermont Lieutenant -- Governor -- sorry -- was the who's he candidate.
But since he raised $7 million in the second quarter this year, Dean has been the Democratic story. His crowds have been enormous. Some 10,000 to 15,000 people in New York's Brian Park this past week. He leads the latest unreliable New Hampshire primary poll by 21 percentage points -- they're all unreliable at this point.
And the Dean campaign says it's going to raise $10 million this quarter which means they really think it'll be much more. He's even hinting that he might emulate George W. Bush from 2000 and opt out of public financing. that would free him to raise unlimited amounts. Now, OK. It's 4 1/2 months before anybody votes. But still, one key question is whether Dean can sustain this and whether the key power bases in the Democratic Party -- labor, minorities, elected officials -- see Dean as acceptable or as an unelectable threat. Which in turn leads to another question: who becomes the un-Dean?
Here's what I mean by that. For the other major contenders, Dean's rise offers a burden and a promise. Dean has sucked most of the oxygen out of the arena. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry once assumed to be the favorite in New Hampshire now has to struggle to be competitive.
Others, Senators John Edwards of North Carolina, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, Bob Graham of Florida are barely above water. And Graham and Edwards have Senate seats up next year. There are some who skeptics doubt whether they're even going to stay in the presidential race. And Congressman Dick Gephardt, a long-time labor favorite, really want the ALF-CIO endorsement in October to gain some traction.
So this fall is going tell us whether any other Democrat also will jump into the race. There's much speculation that retired General Wesley Clark might jump in. That would deprive Senator Kerry of the distinction of being the only Vietnam veteran.
And, of course, there's always Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton who, reports longtime political journalist Richard Reeves, might be mulling this notion over next weekend.
Now, what's that promise I talked about? If the major Democratic constituencies look at Dean and they say, No way, then any one of these other candidates could gain a foot hold by the by becoming the un-Dean.
Now, if you look back at history, can't find a recent example where a stop the front-runner's strategy ever worked in a primaries.
And finally, as we've been hearing all morning, this fall may bring with it some tentative answers to questions that are beyond the capacity of any political probe to control on three major issues: Iraq, obviously, the Middle East, the economy. Events could turn the entire picture upside down.
President Bush's stature after 9/11 increased markedly, but if Iraq grows more violent and more unsettled and more expensive with the Middle East peace process that the Iraq victory was supposed to hasten keeps receding, those credentials might be vulnerable.
And lastly, remember this, voters tend to shape their views on economic matters by what they think as the campaign begins. George Bush's father lost his job on economic matters even though the recession had ended long before election day.
So, Anderson, if the economy booms or withers as the leaves fall, that is largely going to determine whether voters go into next year on an optimistic or pessimistic note. In other words, a huge amount of really important political news this season, something to occupy every journalist, which is why I'm taking the next two weeks off.
COOPER: Oh, excellent.
GREENFIELD: But I'll be thinking of you almost every day.
COOPER: Oh, yeah, I'm sure you will. And watching me no doubt on the evening program.
GREENFIELD: Oh, I'm sure.
COOPER: Yeah, yeah.
Let me just quickly ask you, you mentioned other potential candidates. Senator Clinton, Wesley Clark. Al Gore, possible? He said it's not going to happen but -- never say never?
GREENFIELD: If it weren't for rumors like that, no doubt political junkies would turn to a life of crime and drugs. So I'm all for these rumors. As they used to say about after-school programs, it keeps the kids off the streets.
I think the Gore one is like -- you know, if you can get a billion and one odds, bet a buck.
COOPER: Really? OK. All right, we'll take that. Jeff Greenfield, thanks very much.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
