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American Morning

Analysis of Potential Fallout from Najaf Bombing

Aired September 01, 2003 - 07:06   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to Washington, D.C. to talk a little bit more about the potential fallout from the mosque bombing in Najaf.
CNN analyst Ken Pollack of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution joins us this morning.

Ken, good morning. Nice to see you, as always.

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: We heard Rym describe it, I think very accurately, as a very confusing situation. No one has so far claimed responsibility for the attacks, but we've heard word that there are suspects in custody. This is where it gets kind of confusing. Some reports say that everyone in custody is an Iraqi; others say that there are some non-Iraqis in custody as well.

So, first, the fact that there are suspects at all, do you think that that will go a long way in quelling the unrest in the area?

POLLACK: Well, I think that it probably will help, because chances are, if the folks in Najaf -- and we don't know if they know -- but we assume that they know that there are people in custody. At the very least they probably will have the patience to wait to see what the interrogation of those people in custody will yield. If the interrogations start to drag out, then you could see people getting impatient.

But at least for the moment, it should take the edge off the initial anger and the initial frustration that follows any kind of an attack like this and when the situation is most volatile. So, having some people in custody may not be a terrible thing.

That said, there is no real indication that these people actually had anything to do with the bombing. The initial reports were that these were simply people who had no business belonging in Najaf at the time or weren't known to be in Najaf at the time. They were either foreigners or not from that part of the country. And so, they were picked up simply on that suspicion.

O'BRIEN: OK, but the new tapes purportedly from Saddam Hussein, does that give any credence to the theories that we spoke about last week, which was either it's Saddam Hussein loyalists who are responsible, that it's Sunnis who are responsible, or that it's sort of an al Qaeda -- people coming from the outside of the country into the country? Put it together for me and tell me if this has changed where you think the top suspect of this bombing now is.

POLLACK: Not at all, Soledad. Look, Saddam Hussein is not exactly a man known for his high moral standards. And the fact that he has released an audiotape saying that he had nothing to do with the bombing I think tells us nothing, except for the fact that he is still alive and he's still watching current events inside of Iraq. And he understands that if he were somehow associated with the bombing, that this would turn the Shia very much against him.

But that shouldn't rule him out as a suspect. After all, Saddam Hussein probably has the most to gain of anyone of there being serious Shia-Sunni violence inside of Iraq, because if things start to really erupt, if things start to really melt down between the Shia and the Sunnis, that would probably be the thing that would make it most difficult for the United States to stay in Iraq and in control over the situation, and give him the best opportunity to make his comeback.

O'BRIEN: The FBI is now investigating this bombing. Give me a sense of why that's relevant and why it's important and how that changes things.

POLLACK: Well, it is important for a couple of reasons. First, it's a sign that the Shia are willing to bring Americans into Najaf in an official capacity. Najaf is their holiest city. And the idea that you would have American officials traipsing around that city -- it was an area of great sensitivity beforehand -- it suggests a greater willingness to cooperate with the United States.

It also is important, because obviously the FBI has capabilities which the local authorities in Najaf simply don't. And there is a much better chance that the FBI will be able to get to the bottom of this and find out who really did it than if it were simply left to the devices of the Shia in Najaf on their own.

O'BRIEN: A prominent cleric says that he thinks there needs to be an Iraqi security force, but he does not want to see any kind of militia around Najaf. Give me a sense of what you see as a security picture in Najaf.

POLLACK: Well, this, of course, gets to the real problem, Soledad, which is people are saying we need to have more Iraqis involved in it, we need to turn over security more to the Iraqis. That's all well and good, but the fact of the matter is that there aren't any trained Iraqis yet. The United States and the British are trying to train up some Iraqis. There just aren't too many people.

And, for the most part, right now most Iraqis are very, very suspicious, because those people in Iraq who have any training on security matters were trained by Saddam Hussein, and they are part of his army, they are part of his security services. And, therefore, anybody who takes over security is suspect.

Alternatively, you could turn to the militias, but that would be just as bad. These are private armies controlled by local personalities who have their own interest. So, you have a real problem trying to find the people who can serve as a security force without causing other people inside of Iraq to feel very concerned that they're being watched by potential enemies.

O'BRIEN: And yet another layer of problems there. Ken Pollack, as always, nice to see you. Thanks.

POLLACK: Good to see you, Soledad. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.






Aired September 1, 2003 - 07:06   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to Washington, D.C. to talk a little bit more about the potential fallout from the mosque bombing in Najaf.
CNN analyst Ken Pollack of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution joins us this morning.

Ken, good morning. Nice to see you, as always.

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: We heard Rym describe it, I think very accurately, as a very confusing situation. No one has so far claimed responsibility for the attacks, but we've heard word that there are suspects in custody. This is where it gets kind of confusing. Some reports say that everyone in custody is an Iraqi; others say that there are some non-Iraqis in custody as well.

So, first, the fact that there are suspects at all, do you think that that will go a long way in quelling the unrest in the area?

POLLACK: Well, I think that it probably will help, because chances are, if the folks in Najaf -- and we don't know if they know -- but we assume that they know that there are people in custody. At the very least they probably will have the patience to wait to see what the interrogation of those people in custody will yield. If the interrogations start to drag out, then you could see people getting impatient.

But at least for the moment, it should take the edge off the initial anger and the initial frustration that follows any kind of an attack like this and when the situation is most volatile. So, having some people in custody may not be a terrible thing.

That said, there is no real indication that these people actually had anything to do with the bombing. The initial reports were that these were simply people who had no business belonging in Najaf at the time or weren't known to be in Najaf at the time. They were either foreigners or not from that part of the country. And so, they were picked up simply on that suspicion.

O'BRIEN: OK, but the new tapes purportedly from Saddam Hussein, does that give any credence to the theories that we spoke about last week, which was either it's Saddam Hussein loyalists who are responsible, that it's Sunnis who are responsible, or that it's sort of an al Qaeda -- people coming from the outside of the country into the country? Put it together for me and tell me if this has changed where you think the top suspect of this bombing now is.

POLLACK: Not at all, Soledad. Look, Saddam Hussein is not exactly a man known for his high moral standards. And the fact that he has released an audiotape saying that he had nothing to do with the bombing I think tells us nothing, except for the fact that he is still alive and he's still watching current events inside of Iraq. And he understands that if he were somehow associated with the bombing, that this would turn the Shia very much against him.

But that shouldn't rule him out as a suspect. After all, Saddam Hussein probably has the most to gain of anyone of there being serious Shia-Sunni violence inside of Iraq, because if things start to really erupt, if things start to really melt down between the Shia and the Sunnis, that would probably be the thing that would make it most difficult for the United States to stay in Iraq and in control over the situation, and give him the best opportunity to make his comeback.

O'BRIEN: The FBI is now investigating this bombing. Give me a sense of why that's relevant and why it's important and how that changes things.

POLLACK: Well, it is important for a couple of reasons. First, it's a sign that the Shia are willing to bring Americans into Najaf in an official capacity. Najaf is their holiest city. And the idea that you would have American officials traipsing around that city -- it was an area of great sensitivity beforehand -- it suggests a greater willingness to cooperate with the United States.

It also is important, because obviously the FBI has capabilities which the local authorities in Najaf simply don't. And there is a much better chance that the FBI will be able to get to the bottom of this and find out who really did it than if it were simply left to the devices of the Shia in Najaf on their own.

O'BRIEN: A prominent cleric says that he thinks there needs to be an Iraqi security force, but he does not want to see any kind of militia around Najaf. Give me a sense of what you see as a security picture in Najaf.

POLLACK: Well, this, of course, gets to the real problem, Soledad, which is people are saying we need to have more Iraqis involved in it, we need to turn over security more to the Iraqis. That's all well and good, but the fact of the matter is that there aren't any trained Iraqis yet. The United States and the British are trying to train up some Iraqis. There just aren't too many people.

And, for the most part, right now most Iraqis are very, very suspicious, because those people in Iraq who have any training on security matters were trained by Saddam Hussein, and they are part of his army, they are part of his security services. And, therefore, anybody who takes over security is suspect.

Alternatively, you could turn to the militias, but that would be just as bad. These are private armies controlled by local personalities who have their own interest. So, you have a real problem trying to find the people who can serve as a security force without causing other people inside of Iraq to feel very concerned that they're being watched by potential enemies.

O'BRIEN: And yet another layer of problems there. Ken Pollack, as always, nice to see you. Thanks.

POLLACK: Good to see you, Soledad. Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.