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American Morning

Analysis With Ron Brownstein

Aired September 03, 2003 - 07:31   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to Arnold Schwarzenegger. He says he will debate other candidates in California's recall election, but it's not going to happen tonight. The only debate the movie actor will take part in, on September 17, has an unusual format. The questions will be provided ahead of time, a week ahead of time, in fact.
Tonight, meanwhile, the other leading recall candidates will hold their first debate.

Ron Brownstein, CNN's political analyst and also a "Los Angeles Times" correspondent, joins us from Washington this morning.

Ron, as always, nice to see you.

Thanks for joining us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Hi, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Before we talk about Arnold's lack of participation, let's first list the issues that are going to be very important for voters to hear in the debate, first and foremost, the economy.

What comes after that?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think, first of all, obviously, the economy and the budget within that. That's really the part of the economy in most direct control of the governor and the legislature. How do you close the budget deficit that's left $8 billion down from $38 billion, is the way Davis portrays it. It could be worse depending on the economy.

Immigration is an issue of great division within this field, but especially with Schwarzenegger. So it will be interesting to see whether the candidates go at him even though he's absent. Energy and education, you know, those are the key questions, as well as the uninsured. California has a big health care problem, one of the highest levels of lack of insurance in the nation, although that has not been that much of a focus of the candidates so far.

O'BRIEN: Arnold's campaign has said sitting out this debate is not a big deal. They say his plan is actually to get out there and talk directly to potential voters. So, first, let's play a little bit of what he had to say about this debate and others.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: We have gotten a lot of offers for different debates, over a dozen offers. I don't want to do all of those debates, because I'd rather just go out and direct contact with the people, go to television stations and radio stations and do interviews and talk like we are doing right now to get the message out there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Does that strategy work, saying I'm not avoiding talking about the issues, in fact, 8'm so busy talking about the issues, I don't have time to go to all these debates that are being thrown in my direction?

BROWNSTEIN: You know what's great about elections is that we don't get to decide this, the candidates don't get to decide this, the voters get to decide what's important to them. And I think that we're going to see very clearly in the polls in the next few days and weeks whether, in fact, there is a backlash against Schwarzenegger for not participating. And if there is, he may have to reconsider that strategy.

There's a Republican consultant named Dan Schnur in California who worked John McCain in 2000, now working for Peter Uberoff. He told my colleague, Mark Barabak in the "L.A. Times" today that when George Bush skipped a debate in New Hampshire just before the primary there in 2000, that was one of the ingredients in McCain's rise. Voters thought it was disrespectful to them. So we really have to give the last word on this to voters. And if they speak loudly enough, Schwarzenegger may have to reconsider the approach he's taking.

O'BRIEN: A question about the questions in the debate that Schwarzenegger and all the other candidates will be taking part in. When did they know that they would actually be headed copies of the question so that they could prepare, with lots of time, I might add, so they could prepare their answers?

BROWNSTEIN: You mean for this middle, the debate that's coming up that's kind of interesting...

O'BRIEN: September 17.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. It's kind of interesting that, you know, obviously the other candidates, I can imagine, are going to say that Schwarzenegger will only participate in a debate where he has time to study his lines. That would be an obvious line of criticism. Well, you know, the California Broadcasters Association says that elevates the level of discourse if the candidates know what's coming. It depends, really, on what you think a debate is for. I mean many voters, I think, look at it as a chance to see how the candidates react under pressure to what they don't know is coming. And, of course, that undermines that function of the debate. It really isn't a current events test, it's more of a measure of the candidate's strengths or ability to engage in argument and their command of the issues, which is going to be especially important this time, with Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose biggest problem, probably, in this election is the concern among many voters that he doesn't have the experience or the depth of knowledge about the issues.

And that's why I think, Soledad, in the end, this strategy of saying I'm talking in my own pace, in my own forms, is probably not going to be sustainable till the end, because voters are going to want to see him tested on a common test that all the candidates have to face.

O'BRIEN: A quick final question for you, Ron. The organizers for tonight's debate had planned to leave a chair on the stage signifying Arnold Schwarzenegger is not there. Are they still doing that?

BROWNSTEIN: No, as I understand it, they are not doing that. But, look, there'll be no confusion about who the main target is. By not being there, he makes himself even more the center of attention than he would have been, perhaps, if he was there. You can bet on all of the candidates unloading on him, even as they develop their own strategy vis-a-vis each other.

One of the things to watch for, real quick, Soledad, how does Cruz Bustamante deal with Gray Davis. Does he defend him? Does he distance himself from him? That's a key thing to watch tonight.

O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein, we're going to be watching tonight and I'm sure we'll be checking back in with you to get your assessment.

For the very latest on the recall race, log onto cnn.com/recall. The special reports includes an interactive gallery that explains exactly how the actual ballot works.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired September 3, 2003 - 07:31   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to Arnold Schwarzenegger. He says he will debate other candidates in California's recall election, but it's not going to happen tonight. The only debate the movie actor will take part in, on September 17, has an unusual format. The questions will be provided ahead of time, a week ahead of time, in fact.
Tonight, meanwhile, the other leading recall candidates will hold their first debate.

Ron Brownstein, CNN's political analyst and also a "Los Angeles Times" correspondent, joins us from Washington this morning.

Ron, as always, nice to see you.

Thanks for joining us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Hi, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Before we talk about Arnold's lack of participation, let's first list the issues that are going to be very important for voters to hear in the debate, first and foremost, the economy.

What comes after that?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think, first of all, obviously, the economy and the budget within that. That's really the part of the economy in most direct control of the governor and the legislature. How do you close the budget deficit that's left $8 billion down from $38 billion, is the way Davis portrays it. It could be worse depending on the economy.

Immigration is an issue of great division within this field, but especially with Schwarzenegger. So it will be interesting to see whether the candidates go at him even though he's absent. Energy and education, you know, those are the key questions, as well as the uninsured. California has a big health care problem, one of the highest levels of lack of insurance in the nation, although that has not been that much of a focus of the candidates so far.

O'BRIEN: Arnold's campaign has said sitting out this debate is not a big deal. They say his plan is actually to get out there and talk directly to potential voters. So, first, let's play a little bit of what he had to say about this debate and others.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: We have gotten a lot of offers for different debates, over a dozen offers. I don't want to do all of those debates, because I'd rather just go out and direct contact with the people, go to television stations and radio stations and do interviews and talk like we are doing right now to get the message out there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Does that strategy work, saying I'm not avoiding talking about the issues, in fact, 8'm so busy talking about the issues, I don't have time to go to all these debates that are being thrown in my direction?

BROWNSTEIN: You know what's great about elections is that we don't get to decide this, the candidates don't get to decide this, the voters get to decide what's important to them. And I think that we're going to see very clearly in the polls in the next few days and weeks whether, in fact, there is a backlash against Schwarzenegger for not participating. And if there is, he may have to reconsider that strategy.

There's a Republican consultant named Dan Schnur in California who worked John McCain in 2000, now working for Peter Uberoff. He told my colleague, Mark Barabak in the "L.A. Times" today that when George Bush skipped a debate in New Hampshire just before the primary there in 2000, that was one of the ingredients in McCain's rise. Voters thought it was disrespectful to them. So we really have to give the last word on this to voters. And if they speak loudly enough, Schwarzenegger may have to reconsider the approach he's taking.

O'BRIEN: A question about the questions in the debate that Schwarzenegger and all the other candidates will be taking part in. When did they know that they would actually be headed copies of the question so that they could prepare, with lots of time, I might add, so they could prepare their answers?

BROWNSTEIN: You mean for this middle, the debate that's coming up that's kind of interesting...

O'BRIEN: September 17.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. It's kind of interesting that, you know, obviously the other candidates, I can imagine, are going to say that Schwarzenegger will only participate in a debate where he has time to study his lines. That would be an obvious line of criticism. Well, you know, the California Broadcasters Association says that elevates the level of discourse if the candidates know what's coming. It depends, really, on what you think a debate is for. I mean many voters, I think, look at it as a chance to see how the candidates react under pressure to what they don't know is coming. And, of course, that undermines that function of the debate. It really isn't a current events test, it's more of a measure of the candidate's strengths or ability to engage in argument and their command of the issues, which is going to be especially important this time, with Arnold Schwarzenegger, whose biggest problem, probably, in this election is the concern among many voters that he doesn't have the experience or the depth of knowledge about the issues.

And that's why I think, Soledad, in the end, this strategy of saying I'm talking in my own pace, in my own forms, is probably not going to be sustainable till the end, because voters are going to want to see him tested on a common test that all the candidates have to face.

O'BRIEN: A quick final question for you, Ron. The organizers for tonight's debate had planned to leave a chair on the stage signifying Arnold Schwarzenegger is not there. Are they still doing that?

BROWNSTEIN: No, as I understand it, they are not doing that. But, look, there'll be no confusion about who the main target is. By not being there, he makes himself even more the center of attention than he would have been, perhaps, if he was there. You can bet on all of the candidates unloading on him, even as they develop their own strategy vis-a-vis each other.

One of the things to watch for, real quick, Soledad, how does Cruz Bustamante deal with Gray Davis. Does he defend him? Does he distance himself from him? That's a key thing to watch tonight.

O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein, we're going to be watching tonight and I'm sure we'll be checking back in with you to get your assessment.

For the very latest on the recall race, log onto cnn.com/recall. The special reports includes an interactive gallery that explains exactly how the actual ballot works.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com