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American Morning

Isabel Gaining Ground

Aired September 18, 2003 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: This is the day we've been waiting for it seems like about a week right now, huh?
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: We've been talking about it for a long time.

HEMMER: Talking about Isabel for a long time. The latest we have right now, the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center has this storm right now getting very close to the Carolina coast. We talk about pounding winds, it is pounding in areas, but in other places we see it rather still and rather calm. And this has been the pattern so often when major storms like these come ashore.

That storm now 95 miles, again, 95 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, moving about 15 miles per hour, a little faster than this time yesterday.

Maximum sustained winds now clocked at 100 miles an hour, a little weaker than the last report, about five miles an hour weaker, in fact. The eye of that storm expected to come ashore shortly after noon Eastern time to two o'clock Eastern time, somewhere near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina.

We point out that time is critical today, because, according to the tides, that's the high tide expected. So when we hear about storm surge coming ashore, that's the critical point we're watching a bit later today.

For more, here's Soledad now.

O'BRIEN: All right, and, in fact, we have reporters across the mid-Atlantic coast covering Isabel's arrival.

In North Carolina, Gary Tuchman is in North Topsail Beach; Jeff Flock is in Atlantic Beach for us; Brian Cabell is in Kill Devil Hills; in Elizabeth City, we've got John Zarrella; and following the situation in Virginia Beach, Virginia, we've got Kathleen Koch.

Let's go right to Jeff Flock, who, as we mentioned, is in Atlantic Beach, North Carolina.

Wow, the conditions really seem to be getting worse -- Jeff.

JEFF FLOCK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I know, we just heard that report, too, about the, you know, maybe losing about five miles an hour off the top end speeds of the wind. That's obviously not bad news here. And, you know, I'll tell you, we're in kind of a lull right now. We've got another camera that's placed up on top of a balcony. It kind of gives you a picture of what it looks like out on that pier out there that we were talking about earlier. A lot of big waves crashing in and I don't even think that's the worst of it.

You make a good point about the high tide. That pier becomes in jeopardy when you get those kind of waves at the same time as high tide. Not a good convergence here, slated for about one o'clock local time.

I want to check in real quick, if I can, with the Hurricane Intercept Research Team.

Hey, Mark?

MARK SUDDUTH, HURRICANE INTERCEPT RESEARCH TEAM: Hey, Jeff.

FLOCK: You were on the other side. What kind of winds you got over on the other side?

SUDDUTH: Well, we're still holding. We haven't broken 60 miles per hour yet, which I guess not too many people are going to complain. But we still have -- I mean look at this band right -- well, the camera is up there. The strong band, people can see it here...

FLOCK: Yes, I can see it here, yes.

SUDDUTH: ... people can see it on the radar. That strong band, where the 100 mile per hour winds are, that's yet to get here.

FLOCK: How close is that? Do you have any idea how close that 100 mile an hour wind band is to you right now?

SUDDUTH: We're probably about two hours away from getting into about 50, 60, almost 80 miles per hour. And by noon and one o'clock, we should be looking at 100 miles per hour, if all goes as planned.

FLOCK: Yes. I want to take one more look at that other camera, if I can, off the top of the balcony, which really, see those swells? That's a real problem when we get those swells at high tide, right?

SUDDUTH: Right. That was 45 miles per hour that buffeted you right there, by the way.

FLOCK: The gust that just blew me back?

SUDDUTH: Correct. Exactly. And there's 51 there. See it?

FLOCK: Oh, yes, I can see it here in the car. I wish I could get the camera over here, but I'm trying to keep the camera out of the damn rain.

SUDDUTH: Right. Exactly. That's tough to do. All hazards everywhere.

FLOCK: OK.

SUDDUTH: But, you know, the high tide is around 1:30, so we're going to have to really watch that ocean, see if we get any over wash.

FLOCK: Got you. All right, Mark, I appreciate that.

You can put your window up. Sorry about that, getting you all wet.

Soledad, the other thing to report, of course, is that nine 90 percent of the people here in Atlantic Beach, which, as you point out, is now pretty much ground zero, 90 percent of the people are gone. There was a curfew to seven o'clock this morning overnight. That has expired now and we've seen a few people driving around, in addition, of course, to the reporters that are out here and the storm researchers and chasers.

So, we'll keep an eye on it, but obviously going to get a lot worse before it gets better -- Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Well, I've got to ask you, it's going to get a lot worse. You're looking at one o'clock for 100 mile an hour winds. Can that vehicle take that? I mean it looks like a, what, a Suburban or something like that?

FLOCK: Well, it's a Chevy Tahoe. We don't want to give anybody a plug, but there you go. These anemometers that are mounted up here are slated to take wind -- rated to take winds up to 225 miles an hour. What's the maximum winds you'd put this vehicle in, Mark?

SUDDUTH: A hundred and twenty and not driving. Sitting still I'd stay in 120 and wouldn't worry about it too much, because you can drive the vehicle in 120. You'd get a heck of a speeding ticket, you know, but if you drive and 120 hits you, you'd be in big trouble.

FLOCK: Yes.

SUDDUTH: Right.

FLOCK: If you got it, too. Yes, well, it's blowing pretty good.

SUDDUTH: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) right there.

FLOCK: Yes, it's blowing pretty good (AUDIO GAP).

O'BRIEN: I believe we lost our signal. See, I took a risk there and asked him an extra question and we've lost it. We're going to bring that back up as the winds continue to increase where Jeff is. And fortunately, it looks like their vehicle can take it. So obviously we'll keep our fingers crossed for them.

HEMMER: Yes, that we will.

A number of our reporters in North Carolina. Up in Virginia, Virginia Beach expected to take a beating a bit later today. We'll talk about the noon Eastern hour to two o'clock Eastern hour.

The city's mayor, Meyera Oberndorff, is in Virginia Beach. She was with us at this time yesterday. She is back again today to tell us how folks are weathering the storm there -- Madam Mayor, thanks for your time.

Tell us, first of all, what have you observed so far this morning? MAYOR MEYERA OBERNDORFF, VIRGINIA BEACH, VIRGINIA: I can tell you there are very few people on the roads. They are paying attention to the warnings we've been giving. They are staying in sheltered areas. We have over 700 people in one of the shelters where the low lying area would prohibit the people from staying in their own homes.

We are looking for stronger and gustier winds as the day moves on. We're trying to be very careful about fire. We're asking any people who leave their homes to be sure to turn everything off so that we won't have to respond to that.

We're also looking at many more people probably using the shelters tonight, depending on the wind force. Our municipal government is working on its emergency legs, as opposed to its daily routines, and that we found recently that 14 of our sewage pump stations had lost power. That's out of 400 stations. So we have crews hurriedly going over there to lash them up on a generator.

HEMMER: We hear the area around Virginia Beach and north of there is already saturated with water. How concerned are you about the possibility of flooding?

OBERNDORFF: We're very, very concerned about the possibility of flooding, but we're also worried that these beautiful trees that we are so proud of have become saturated and that when the harsh winds come by, they are very likely to uproot these major trees.

HEMMER: Yes, Mayor, about three hours ago, the forecasters came out and said essentially the storm looks like at some point it's taking a direct left hand turn to go straight into the coast of North Carolina. If that's the case, based on the information your getting right now, do you think you may dodge this today?

OBERNDORFF: Our folks, though, do not think we are going to get away without being impacted by the storm, even if she should turn left.

HEMMER: Mayor, thanks.

Meyera Oberndorff, we'll talk again, all right, from Virginia Beach, where they're waiting for the news a bit later today.

Thank you very much, again, for your time today and good luck.

OBERNDORFF: Thank you very much.

HEMMER: Hang in there.

OBERNDORFF: Thank you.

HEMMER: Soledad.

All right. OBERNDORFF: Thanks.

O'BRIEN: Well, as you mentioned, Bill, it looks like North Carolina is going to get the brunt of the storm.

Brian Cabell is live for us in Kill Devil Hills this morning -- Brian, how is it looking where you are?

BRIAN CABELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

It's not exactly a chamber of commerce day here in the Outer Banks. Fortunately, there aren't all that many tourists around to see this. But what's happened over the last three or four days is they have evacuated 125,000 people. That's most of the 30,000 residents here, along with about 75,000 to 100,000 tourists who were here just last weekend.

I'm standing right alongside Highway 12. This is one of the routes leading out of town and off of the Outer Banks. One of the big problems here, of course, is electricity. The power is still on, as you can see, with some of the lights. But the power lines here -- and I'm standing not too far from one, probably rather foolishly, at this point -- power lines at sometimes, when the winds reach 60, 70 miles per hour, will start coming down. They have not yet.

No major problems yet, except, as you can see, there is wind and there's fairly heavy rain. The rain has been fluctuating between heavy and very little at all, but the winds have been swirling and I would say we're getting winds probably 40, 45, 50 miles per hour.

We have a little bit of activity on the streets. The police have just asked me to get off of the street, so there is still some traffic. But mostly it's law enforcement, a few of the foolish media people, of course, and that's about it.

The houses, as you can see across the street, have been shuttered. They were shuttered, really, about two days ago, when the mandatory evacuation order was given.

So right now we are just seeing the weather deteriorate slightly and over the next several hours it will get considerably worse.

Let's take a real quick look on the other side here. That -- now you're looking at the ocean. Winds much worse over there, I would say probably another 10 miles per hour worse. And the waves, we are told to expect waves somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 feet high. We don't have that yet. But, again, six or seven hours it will be much different.

But right now, Soledad, as I say, not a pretty day here in Kill Devil Hills, but this is the beginning of a hurricane -- back to you.

O'BRIEN: Yes, we can definitely see not a pretty day.

A quick question for you. Explain for me where we see you now, how far is that from the water? CABELL: How far am I from the water? Is that what you're asking?

O'BRIEN: Yes.

CABELL: I would say about 75 yards. And blocking me from the water is a five story motel, where we are staying. So we're buffered somewhat. So the winds are not as bad here as they are on the other side.

O'BRIEN: All right, Brian, all right, stay safe and we'll continue to check in with you throughout the morning, obviously.

Brian Cabell for us in Kill Devil Hills -- Bill.

HEMMER: The strength of that surf is so impressive, too.

We want to check back in with Chad -- Chad, do you agree with the other forecasters talking about this left hand turn? Do you see it the same way?

CHAD MYERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I don't -- it was -- it had been turning left, Bill. We kind of dotted it here. Yes, you see that little kink right there? I mean that's what I think is actually going to happen, right on here, and right very close to Cape Lookout, just a little bit to the east, is where the eye will make landfall.

Now, the problem is the eye is actually very large. You can't really see it on this picture, but I can show it to you on the next one. The winds have been decreased now. They went down to 100 miles per hour. Still a category two and northwest movement at 15 miles per hour. And on the right side of the storm -- well, actually, it would be the wrong side -- but on the right side of the storm, we have to add those numbers together. So you have winds here at 100 and a movement of 15. So you have to actually get to 115 here, right about Cape Hatteras or maybe even about the Ockracoke Light.

As this entire system moves on up toward the north and toward the northeast, it's not even near where our live shots are yet. We still have another, literally, six or seven hours of that weather going downhill, all the way from Kill Devil Hills right up to Virginia Beach, Elizabeth City, right about there. And this, as this system gets into the Pamlico and Albemarle Sound, we're going to have very hot water here, again. This is not cold water and it's not land in here. Most of eastern North Carolina is, in fact, swamp, the Dismal Swamp, and, also, the water, which would be considered the Sounds there, the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

So, certainly we're not going to lose any strength before we finally get up to about Virginia. From North Topsail Beach in North Carolina, you can begin to see the waves there. The waves right now and the winds are parallel to Topsail Beach because they're actually coming in from the northeast and that's the direction of the shore. So we're not seeing anything all that bad at Topsail Beach. We didn't expect to. We expect that wind to be offshore, where winds here will actually be onshore, much worse, a much more battering storm here for the Outer Banks from about Cape Hatteras right on up into Virginia Beach. And I know that mayor said they haven't seen anything yet really all that bad. But what she did see was everybody was off the road, and that is good news.

A lot of e-mails this morning about Chincoteague and Asateague (ph), the ponies, the fuzzy little ponies that live there. They obviously got there from a shipwreck out in the Atlantic. They've been there 300 years. They've seen more hurricanes than you and I will ever see. Those little guys will be just fine. And, in fact, the winds around Chincoteague will only be 60 to 65. They'll just lay down in the dunes and they'll be absolutely fine there.

Tropical storm warnings, though, all the way up to Moriches's Inlet here on Long Island. So this was actually extended from Sandy Hook right on off to the east about 60 miles. If you have some marine interests there, batten down the hatches.

Also, you are going to see wind, Bill and Soledad, in New York City, to at least 30 to 35 miles per hour. And then you get a 95 story building in the way and, boy, you just get that wind tunnel effect. So you need to be really careful there.

HEMMER: A couple of things here, Chad, if we can go back to the satellite image, I want to pick up on.

MYERS: OK.

HEMMER: It's reduced its speed to 100 miles per hour.

MYERS: Right.

HEMMER: Said earlier in the week, when it had gusts of over 155, 160 miles per hour, that it hit this cold weather system that started to break it up. We're going to see a little break-up once it crosses land, correct?

MYERS: Correct. But, Bill, you know, as it crosses the initial barrier island -- and this island down here is a national wildlife refuge. There's not a lot of homes on it. But as it gets up into here, this is still all Dismal Swamp, still kind of wet here. But when it gets finally north of Elizabeth City, that's when it begins to slow down. But Williamsburg, Richmond, Virginia, especially the west end of Richmond, could easily see 70 to 75 miles per hour winds today. That's the biggest city, really, in the way, along with Hampton Roads.

HEMMER: And the other point, the upper right hand quadrant is where you find the biggest force when it comes to wind. The cities you just mentioned, is that where you believe that upper right hand quadrant is going to collide with land?

MYERS: Absolutely. Cape Hatteras and points eastward, right on up the Outer Banks, and I've been to Corolla and I've been to Duck and I've been to Nags Head, and these areas here have multi-million dollar homes on them, and they're all going to be bashed from the east because that's the direction that the wind is coming in. And although right now it's not that bad, temperatures are cool, like you said, that's cooling the storm down and bringing the elevation down, bringing the wind speed down just a little bit. But the water is still warm.

So you've got these counteracting factors. One wants to make it stronger and one wants to make it cooler. And with this onshore flow right through here, the beach erosion from Virginia Beach, where they've spent millions, maybe more than that, maybe tens of millions of dollars bringing the sand back, well, Mother Nature is going to do a job on that sand, I'm afraid, and take it about five miles out to sea.

HEMMER: Chad, thanks.

We'll be back in touch in a couple of minutes.

MYERS: Yes.

HEMMER: As you were talking, we're looking at a live picture from North Topsail Beach in North Carolina. You can see that surf. It is dramatic in many ways right now with the waves getting bigger as we grow longer into this day.

O'BRIEN: And, in fact, of course, as Chad was mentioning, the wind here in New York City, of course, you know, we're not really worried about getting battered by the sea, but the truth is not only the buildings -- obviously, they'll be able to withstand that -- but the scaffolding always a problem. Those things collapse and in some cases, you know, people get killed because of the strong winds.

HEMMER: A really good point. That's right.

O'BRIEN: Always a problem.

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Aired September 18, 2003 - 08:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: This is the day we've been waiting for it seems like about a week right now, huh?
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: We've been talking about it for a long time.

HEMMER: Talking about Isabel for a long time. The latest we have right now, the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center has this storm right now getting very close to the Carolina coast. We talk about pounding winds, it is pounding in areas, but in other places we see it rather still and rather calm. And this has been the pattern so often when major storms like these come ashore.

That storm now 95 miles, again, 95 miles southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, moving about 15 miles per hour, a little faster than this time yesterday.

Maximum sustained winds now clocked at 100 miles an hour, a little weaker than the last report, about five miles an hour weaker, in fact. The eye of that storm expected to come ashore shortly after noon Eastern time to two o'clock Eastern time, somewhere near Atlantic Beach, North Carolina.

We point out that time is critical today, because, according to the tides, that's the high tide expected. So when we hear about storm surge coming ashore, that's the critical point we're watching a bit later today.

For more, here's Soledad now.

O'BRIEN: All right, and, in fact, we have reporters across the mid-Atlantic coast covering Isabel's arrival.

In North Carolina, Gary Tuchman is in North Topsail Beach; Jeff Flock is in Atlantic Beach for us; Brian Cabell is in Kill Devil Hills; in Elizabeth City, we've got John Zarrella; and following the situation in Virginia Beach, Virginia, we've got Kathleen Koch.

Let's go right to Jeff Flock, who, as we mentioned, is in Atlantic Beach, North Carolina.

Wow, the conditions really seem to be getting worse -- Jeff.

JEFF FLOCK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I know, we just heard that report, too, about the, you know, maybe losing about five miles an hour off the top end speeds of the wind. That's obviously not bad news here. And, you know, I'll tell you, we're in kind of a lull right now. We've got another camera that's placed up on top of a balcony. It kind of gives you a picture of what it looks like out on that pier out there that we were talking about earlier. A lot of big waves crashing in and I don't even think that's the worst of it.

You make a good point about the high tide. That pier becomes in jeopardy when you get those kind of waves at the same time as high tide. Not a good convergence here, slated for about one o'clock local time.

I want to check in real quick, if I can, with the Hurricane Intercept Research Team.

Hey, Mark?

MARK SUDDUTH, HURRICANE INTERCEPT RESEARCH TEAM: Hey, Jeff.

FLOCK: You were on the other side. What kind of winds you got over on the other side?

SUDDUTH: Well, we're still holding. We haven't broken 60 miles per hour yet, which I guess not too many people are going to complain. But we still have -- I mean look at this band right -- well, the camera is up there. The strong band, people can see it here...

FLOCK: Yes, I can see it here, yes.

SUDDUTH: ... people can see it on the radar. That strong band, where the 100 mile per hour winds are, that's yet to get here.

FLOCK: How close is that? Do you have any idea how close that 100 mile an hour wind band is to you right now?

SUDDUTH: We're probably about two hours away from getting into about 50, 60, almost 80 miles per hour. And by noon and one o'clock, we should be looking at 100 miles per hour, if all goes as planned.

FLOCK: Yes. I want to take one more look at that other camera, if I can, off the top of the balcony, which really, see those swells? That's a real problem when we get those swells at high tide, right?

SUDDUTH: Right. That was 45 miles per hour that buffeted you right there, by the way.

FLOCK: The gust that just blew me back?

SUDDUTH: Correct. Exactly. And there's 51 there. See it?

FLOCK: Oh, yes, I can see it here in the car. I wish I could get the camera over here, but I'm trying to keep the camera out of the damn rain.

SUDDUTH: Right. Exactly. That's tough to do. All hazards everywhere.

FLOCK: OK.

SUDDUTH: But, you know, the high tide is around 1:30, so we're going to have to really watch that ocean, see if we get any over wash.

FLOCK: Got you. All right, Mark, I appreciate that.

You can put your window up. Sorry about that, getting you all wet.

Soledad, the other thing to report, of course, is that nine 90 percent of the people here in Atlantic Beach, which, as you point out, is now pretty much ground zero, 90 percent of the people are gone. There was a curfew to seven o'clock this morning overnight. That has expired now and we've seen a few people driving around, in addition, of course, to the reporters that are out here and the storm researchers and chasers.

So, we'll keep an eye on it, but obviously going to get a lot worse before it gets better -- Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Well, I've got to ask you, it's going to get a lot worse. You're looking at one o'clock for 100 mile an hour winds. Can that vehicle take that? I mean it looks like a, what, a Suburban or something like that?

FLOCK: Well, it's a Chevy Tahoe. We don't want to give anybody a plug, but there you go. These anemometers that are mounted up here are slated to take wind -- rated to take winds up to 225 miles an hour. What's the maximum winds you'd put this vehicle in, Mark?

SUDDUTH: A hundred and twenty and not driving. Sitting still I'd stay in 120 and wouldn't worry about it too much, because you can drive the vehicle in 120. You'd get a heck of a speeding ticket, you know, but if you drive and 120 hits you, you'd be in big trouble.

FLOCK: Yes.

SUDDUTH: Right.

FLOCK: If you got it, too. Yes, well, it's blowing pretty good.

SUDDUTH: (UNINTELLIGIBLE) right there.

FLOCK: Yes, it's blowing pretty good (AUDIO GAP).

O'BRIEN: I believe we lost our signal. See, I took a risk there and asked him an extra question and we've lost it. We're going to bring that back up as the winds continue to increase where Jeff is. And fortunately, it looks like their vehicle can take it. So obviously we'll keep our fingers crossed for them.

HEMMER: Yes, that we will.

A number of our reporters in North Carolina. Up in Virginia, Virginia Beach expected to take a beating a bit later today. We'll talk about the noon Eastern hour to two o'clock Eastern hour.

The city's mayor, Meyera Oberndorff, is in Virginia Beach. She was with us at this time yesterday. She is back again today to tell us how folks are weathering the storm there -- Madam Mayor, thanks for your time.

Tell us, first of all, what have you observed so far this morning? MAYOR MEYERA OBERNDORFF, VIRGINIA BEACH, VIRGINIA: I can tell you there are very few people on the roads. They are paying attention to the warnings we've been giving. They are staying in sheltered areas. We have over 700 people in one of the shelters where the low lying area would prohibit the people from staying in their own homes.

We are looking for stronger and gustier winds as the day moves on. We're trying to be very careful about fire. We're asking any people who leave their homes to be sure to turn everything off so that we won't have to respond to that.

We're also looking at many more people probably using the shelters tonight, depending on the wind force. Our municipal government is working on its emergency legs, as opposed to its daily routines, and that we found recently that 14 of our sewage pump stations had lost power. That's out of 400 stations. So we have crews hurriedly going over there to lash them up on a generator.

HEMMER: We hear the area around Virginia Beach and north of there is already saturated with water. How concerned are you about the possibility of flooding?

OBERNDORFF: We're very, very concerned about the possibility of flooding, but we're also worried that these beautiful trees that we are so proud of have become saturated and that when the harsh winds come by, they are very likely to uproot these major trees.

HEMMER: Yes, Mayor, about three hours ago, the forecasters came out and said essentially the storm looks like at some point it's taking a direct left hand turn to go straight into the coast of North Carolina. If that's the case, based on the information your getting right now, do you think you may dodge this today?

OBERNDORFF: Our folks, though, do not think we are going to get away without being impacted by the storm, even if she should turn left.

HEMMER: Mayor, thanks.

Meyera Oberndorff, we'll talk again, all right, from Virginia Beach, where they're waiting for the news a bit later today.

Thank you very much, again, for your time today and good luck.

OBERNDORFF: Thank you very much.

HEMMER: Hang in there.

OBERNDORFF: Thank you.

HEMMER: Soledad.

All right. OBERNDORFF: Thanks.

O'BRIEN: Well, as you mentioned, Bill, it looks like North Carolina is going to get the brunt of the storm.

Brian Cabell is live for us in Kill Devil Hills this morning -- Brian, how is it looking where you are?

BRIAN CABELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

It's not exactly a chamber of commerce day here in the Outer Banks. Fortunately, there aren't all that many tourists around to see this. But what's happened over the last three or four days is they have evacuated 125,000 people. That's most of the 30,000 residents here, along with about 75,000 to 100,000 tourists who were here just last weekend.

I'm standing right alongside Highway 12. This is one of the routes leading out of town and off of the Outer Banks. One of the big problems here, of course, is electricity. The power is still on, as you can see, with some of the lights. But the power lines here -- and I'm standing not too far from one, probably rather foolishly, at this point -- power lines at sometimes, when the winds reach 60, 70 miles per hour, will start coming down. They have not yet.

No major problems yet, except, as you can see, there is wind and there's fairly heavy rain. The rain has been fluctuating between heavy and very little at all, but the winds have been swirling and I would say we're getting winds probably 40, 45, 50 miles per hour.

We have a little bit of activity on the streets. The police have just asked me to get off of the street, so there is still some traffic. But mostly it's law enforcement, a few of the foolish media people, of course, and that's about it.

The houses, as you can see across the street, have been shuttered. They were shuttered, really, about two days ago, when the mandatory evacuation order was given.

So right now we are just seeing the weather deteriorate slightly and over the next several hours it will get considerably worse.

Let's take a real quick look on the other side here. That -- now you're looking at the ocean. Winds much worse over there, I would say probably another 10 miles per hour worse. And the waves, we are told to expect waves somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 feet high. We don't have that yet. But, again, six or seven hours it will be much different.

But right now, Soledad, as I say, not a pretty day here in Kill Devil Hills, but this is the beginning of a hurricane -- back to you.

O'BRIEN: Yes, we can definitely see not a pretty day.

A quick question for you. Explain for me where we see you now, how far is that from the water? CABELL: How far am I from the water? Is that what you're asking?

O'BRIEN: Yes.

CABELL: I would say about 75 yards. And blocking me from the water is a five story motel, where we are staying. So we're buffered somewhat. So the winds are not as bad here as they are on the other side.

O'BRIEN: All right, Brian, all right, stay safe and we'll continue to check in with you throughout the morning, obviously.

Brian Cabell for us in Kill Devil Hills -- Bill.

HEMMER: The strength of that surf is so impressive, too.

We want to check back in with Chad -- Chad, do you agree with the other forecasters talking about this left hand turn? Do you see it the same way?

CHAD MYERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: I don't -- it was -- it had been turning left, Bill. We kind of dotted it here. Yes, you see that little kink right there? I mean that's what I think is actually going to happen, right on here, and right very close to Cape Lookout, just a little bit to the east, is where the eye will make landfall.

Now, the problem is the eye is actually very large. You can't really see it on this picture, but I can show it to you on the next one. The winds have been decreased now. They went down to 100 miles per hour. Still a category two and northwest movement at 15 miles per hour. And on the right side of the storm -- well, actually, it would be the wrong side -- but on the right side of the storm, we have to add those numbers together. So you have winds here at 100 and a movement of 15. So you have to actually get to 115 here, right about Cape Hatteras or maybe even about the Ockracoke Light.

As this entire system moves on up toward the north and toward the northeast, it's not even near where our live shots are yet. We still have another, literally, six or seven hours of that weather going downhill, all the way from Kill Devil Hills right up to Virginia Beach, Elizabeth City, right about there. And this, as this system gets into the Pamlico and Albemarle Sound, we're going to have very hot water here, again. This is not cold water and it's not land in here. Most of eastern North Carolina is, in fact, swamp, the Dismal Swamp, and, also, the water, which would be considered the Sounds there, the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

So, certainly we're not going to lose any strength before we finally get up to about Virginia. From North Topsail Beach in North Carolina, you can begin to see the waves there. The waves right now and the winds are parallel to Topsail Beach because they're actually coming in from the northeast and that's the direction of the shore. So we're not seeing anything all that bad at Topsail Beach. We didn't expect to. We expect that wind to be offshore, where winds here will actually be onshore, much worse, a much more battering storm here for the Outer Banks from about Cape Hatteras right on up into Virginia Beach. And I know that mayor said they haven't seen anything yet really all that bad. But what she did see was everybody was off the road, and that is good news.

A lot of e-mails this morning about Chincoteague and Asateague (ph), the ponies, the fuzzy little ponies that live there. They obviously got there from a shipwreck out in the Atlantic. They've been there 300 years. They've seen more hurricanes than you and I will ever see. Those little guys will be just fine. And, in fact, the winds around Chincoteague will only be 60 to 65. They'll just lay down in the dunes and they'll be absolutely fine there.

Tropical storm warnings, though, all the way up to Moriches's Inlet here on Long Island. So this was actually extended from Sandy Hook right on off to the east about 60 miles. If you have some marine interests there, batten down the hatches.

Also, you are going to see wind, Bill and Soledad, in New York City, to at least 30 to 35 miles per hour. And then you get a 95 story building in the way and, boy, you just get that wind tunnel effect. So you need to be really careful there.

HEMMER: A couple of things here, Chad, if we can go back to the satellite image, I want to pick up on.

MYERS: OK.

HEMMER: It's reduced its speed to 100 miles per hour.

MYERS: Right.

HEMMER: Said earlier in the week, when it had gusts of over 155, 160 miles per hour, that it hit this cold weather system that started to break it up. We're going to see a little break-up once it crosses land, correct?

MYERS: Correct. But, Bill, you know, as it crosses the initial barrier island -- and this island down here is a national wildlife refuge. There's not a lot of homes on it. But as it gets up into here, this is still all Dismal Swamp, still kind of wet here. But when it gets finally north of Elizabeth City, that's when it begins to slow down. But Williamsburg, Richmond, Virginia, especially the west end of Richmond, could easily see 70 to 75 miles per hour winds today. That's the biggest city, really, in the way, along with Hampton Roads.

HEMMER: And the other point, the upper right hand quadrant is where you find the biggest force when it comes to wind. The cities you just mentioned, is that where you believe that upper right hand quadrant is going to collide with land?

MYERS: Absolutely. Cape Hatteras and points eastward, right on up the Outer Banks, and I've been to Corolla and I've been to Duck and I've been to Nags Head, and these areas here have multi-million dollar homes on them, and they're all going to be bashed from the east because that's the direction that the wind is coming in. And although right now it's not that bad, temperatures are cool, like you said, that's cooling the storm down and bringing the elevation down, bringing the wind speed down just a little bit. But the water is still warm.

So you've got these counteracting factors. One wants to make it stronger and one wants to make it cooler. And with this onshore flow right through here, the beach erosion from Virginia Beach, where they've spent millions, maybe more than that, maybe tens of millions of dollars bringing the sand back, well, Mother Nature is going to do a job on that sand, I'm afraid, and take it about five miles out to sea.

HEMMER: Chad, thanks.

We'll be back in touch in a couple of minutes.

MYERS: Yes.

HEMMER: As you were talking, we're looking at a live picture from North Topsail Beach in North Carolina. You can see that surf. It is dramatic in many ways right now with the waves getting bigger as we grow longer into this day.

O'BRIEN: And, in fact, of course, as Chad was mentioning, the wind here in New York City, of course, you know, we're not really worried about getting battered by the sea, but the truth is not only the buildings -- obviously, they'll be able to withstand that -- but the scaffolding always a problem. Those things collapse and in some cases, you know, people get killed because of the strong winds.

HEMMER: A really good point. That's right.

O'BRIEN: Always a problem.

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