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American Morning

Battle for California

Aired September 24, 2003 - 09:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Now to that court ruling from yesterday, clearing the way for California's recall election to proceed as scheduled, October 7th. Where does that now leave the current governor, Gray Davis, in the sea of candidates trying to replace him?
Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield back here on AMERICAN MORNING.

Nice to see you.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Nice to see you.

HEMMER: How does it look for him surviving this right now?

GREENFIELD: Slightly better than a couple weeks ago. But that really isn't saying a whole lot. A poll this week by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California shows Davis would lose his job by a 53-42 percent margin. A month ago, 58 percent said that they'd throw him out. His strategy of trying to make this a partisan party issue, campaigning with the Clinton and Gore and Democratic presidential candidates has worked up to a point. He's picked up on Democrats and independents.

Clearly Gray Davis has still got a mountain to climb. And among potential replacements Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante and Republican actor activist Arnold Schwarzenegger are in a statistical dead heat with conservative Republican state Senator Tom McClintock at 14 percent.

HEMMER: Oh, but hang on, because it all could change by tonight.

GREENFIELD: This is actually probably the most important night of the entire campaign, because there's a 90-minute debate among five candidates, including Schwarzenegger. This is the only debate he's agreed to be on. And while the questions have been released in advance, they're toughies, like what would your first step be, the format calls for what's called a free-flowing exchange among all the candidates about no preset time limit. In that same poll, two thirds of Californians say this debate's going to be somewhat or very important. And remember, about one in five have not yet picked a replacement candidate. This debate is going to get enormous coverage in California.

More than 100 local stations are set to cover it. So the ground could shift dramatically. If you get a strong performance by Schwarzenegger, a whole lot of pressure comes on Republican state Senator McClintock to withdraw. In turn, does he decide to go for broke by attacking Schwarzenegger as a social liberal, or does he turn his fire on Cruz Bustamante and Gray Davis?

HEMMER: You raise an interesting point about McClintock. Darrell Isa was on with Judy Woodruff yesterday, and really was cranking up the pressure to say look at the writing on the wall right now and do the math.

GREENFIELD: In fact, there are two parts of that. The big news was that Darrell Isa, a Republican conservative whose money fueled this recall, says if the Republican, one of these guys doesn't withdraw, Schwarzenegger or McClintock, vote no on recall. We'd rather have a weakened Gray Davis than Bustamante.

However, don't forget the left. Arianna Huffington, the writer and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, they share about 5 percent of the vote from the liberal left. If the liberal left voters don't go with Bustamante, even though nobody's talking about this, I mentioned this before, they could play the same role Ralph Nader played in Florida in 2000, which is in effect throwing the state to a Republican. So just, you know, keep an eye on that. Huffington and Camejo are both in this debate tonight.

HEMMER: You're thinking that could be one of the overlooked factors depending on what happens in 13 days?

GREENFIELD: Everybody's talking so much about McClintock. That's right, and if he pulls out that makes Schwarzenegger the odds- on favorite. But we just looked at those numbers. It's a statistical dead heat, Bustamante and Schwarzenegger. Five percent of the vote, coming from the left, you'd think logically would be more likely to go to Bustamante than Schwarzenegger, and if it doesn't, if they say no, we're going with Arianna or Peter Camejo, that overlooked, nobody's talking about it yet, could wind up turning the whole election.

HEMMER: You just mentioned four ifs in that sentence, by the way. That is if you get 51 percent on the recall vote.

GREENFIELD: Yes, as I say, I think we made a lot of noise this week about the momentum is in Davis' favor. But look at those numbers. This is an eleven-point gap to make up. And my assumption, could be wrong, is that in a recall election, the againsters are more likely to turn out than the fors, and people who dislike Davis I think have a more emotional reason to come and throw the rascal out.

HEMMER: Are you going to be watching tonight?

GREENFIELD: Yes, you know, it competes against the premiere of "The West Wing." For a political junkie, this is a tough one. Thank God for TiVo and VCRs.

HEMMER: Hope to see you tomorrow, Jeff. Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired September 24, 2003 - 09:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Now to that court ruling from yesterday, clearing the way for California's recall election to proceed as scheduled, October 7th. Where does that now leave the current governor, Gray Davis, in the sea of candidates trying to replace him?
Senior Analyst Jeff Greenfield back here on AMERICAN MORNING.

Nice to see you.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SR. ANALYST: Nice to see you.

HEMMER: How does it look for him surviving this right now?

GREENFIELD: Slightly better than a couple weeks ago. But that really isn't saying a whole lot. A poll this week by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California shows Davis would lose his job by a 53-42 percent margin. A month ago, 58 percent said that they'd throw him out. His strategy of trying to make this a partisan party issue, campaigning with the Clinton and Gore and Democratic presidential candidates has worked up to a point. He's picked up on Democrats and independents.

Clearly Gray Davis has still got a mountain to climb. And among potential replacements Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante and Republican actor activist Arnold Schwarzenegger are in a statistical dead heat with conservative Republican state Senator Tom McClintock at 14 percent.

HEMMER: Oh, but hang on, because it all could change by tonight.

GREENFIELD: This is actually probably the most important night of the entire campaign, because there's a 90-minute debate among five candidates, including Schwarzenegger. This is the only debate he's agreed to be on. And while the questions have been released in advance, they're toughies, like what would your first step be, the format calls for what's called a free-flowing exchange among all the candidates about no preset time limit. In that same poll, two thirds of Californians say this debate's going to be somewhat or very important. And remember, about one in five have not yet picked a replacement candidate. This debate is going to get enormous coverage in California.

More than 100 local stations are set to cover it. So the ground could shift dramatically. If you get a strong performance by Schwarzenegger, a whole lot of pressure comes on Republican state Senator McClintock to withdraw. In turn, does he decide to go for broke by attacking Schwarzenegger as a social liberal, or does he turn his fire on Cruz Bustamante and Gray Davis?

HEMMER: You raise an interesting point about McClintock. Darrell Isa was on with Judy Woodruff yesterday, and really was cranking up the pressure to say look at the writing on the wall right now and do the math.

GREENFIELD: In fact, there are two parts of that. The big news was that Darrell Isa, a Republican conservative whose money fueled this recall, says if the Republican, one of these guys doesn't withdraw, Schwarzenegger or McClintock, vote no on recall. We'd rather have a weakened Gray Davis than Bustamante.

However, don't forget the left. Arianna Huffington, the writer and Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, they share about 5 percent of the vote from the liberal left. If the liberal left voters don't go with Bustamante, even though nobody's talking about this, I mentioned this before, they could play the same role Ralph Nader played in Florida in 2000, which is in effect throwing the state to a Republican. So just, you know, keep an eye on that. Huffington and Camejo are both in this debate tonight.

HEMMER: You're thinking that could be one of the overlooked factors depending on what happens in 13 days?

GREENFIELD: Everybody's talking so much about McClintock. That's right, and if he pulls out that makes Schwarzenegger the odds- on favorite. But we just looked at those numbers. It's a statistical dead heat, Bustamante and Schwarzenegger. Five percent of the vote, coming from the left, you'd think logically would be more likely to go to Bustamante than Schwarzenegger, and if it doesn't, if they say no, we're going with Arianna or Peter Camejo, that overlooked, nobody's talking about it yet, could wind up turning the whole election.

HEMMER: You just mentioned four ifs in that sentence, by the way. That is if you get 51 percent on the recall vote.

GREENFIELD: Yes, as I say, I think we made a lot of noise this week about the momentum is in Davis' favor. But look at those numbers. This is an eleven-point gap to make up. And my assumption, could be wrong, is that in a recall election, the againsters are more likely to turn out than the fors, and people who dislike Davis I think have a more emotional reason to come and throw the rascal out.

HEMMER: Are you going to be watching tonight?

GREENFIELD: Yes, you know, it competes against the premiere of "The West Wing." For a political junkie, this is a tough one. Thank God for TiVo and VCRs.

HEMMER: Hope to see you tomorrow, Jeff. Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com