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American Morning
Poll Vault
Aired September 29, 2003 - 08:31 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get to California yet again. Eight days to go before the recall election. New poll numbers show a surge by Arnold Schwarzenegger, offering some not so good news for the governor, Gray Davis.
Bob Franken live in L.A., takes us through it on a Monday morning.
Good morning, Bob. Interesting developments this weekend.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Really quite a departure from the other polls. It was done with probable voters, and the people from CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup say that it's very, very hard to identify probable voters. By the way, that's as opposed to likely voters.
Nevertheless, it is a very thorough poll, and here are the results. It says, and this is the important one, that Gray Davis is in deep trouble, because the recall is favored by 363 percent of these probable voters, with this plus or minus four points, by the way, as the error possibility in this poll. 63 percent yes, 35 percent, no.
Now you get to the replacement candidates operating on the assumption, of course, that Governor Gray Davis is going to be thrown out of office. Arnold Schwarzenegger has taken a big jump, he's now at 40 percent, 40 percent versus Cruz Bustamante at 25 percent. Tom McClintock stays the same as he had in other polls, at about 18 percent and Peter Camejo and Arianna Huffington round out things at the bottom.
As I said, the people who have taken this poll point out that it's very hard to quantify what the turnout will actually be. They also say that it's very difficult to come up with a poll model given the unique nature of this election, with 135 candidates on the recall ballot. And, of course, it's hard to figure out just how volatile things still are with just eight days to go.
With all those caveats, Arnold Schwarzenegger reacted in a very cautious way to this poll.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: I hear poll numbers all the time, so we're very happy, of course, that they're looking good. But I don't take anything for granted. I mean, to me, this is a very important week coming up now, going up and down the state, reaching out to the people, and really letting them know what my vision is, because people basically want leadership, and this is what we have is a vacuum of leadership in these last few years.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FRANKEN: As you might imagine, Bill, the Gray Davis reaction to this poll is not a positive one. His spokesman, Peter Ragone, said it's a joke -- Bill.
HEMMER: Bob, on another topic, some reports over the weekend indicating that in the past, Gray Davis when he goes negative it turns off a lot of California voters. Is there any indication that that might be the path over the next eight days?
FRANKEN: Well, the Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign is trying to exploit that, coming out with all kinds of ads, saying that here is the old Gray Davis going negative. But the Gray Davis people respond by saying that the first negative ads that appeared in this campaign were ones that were paid for on behalf of Arnold Schwarzenegger.
HEMMER: Eight days and counting. We'll see you in California, Bob.
Thanks, Bob Franken in L.A.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired September 29, 2003 - 08:31 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get to California yet again. Eight days to go before the recall election. New poll numbers show a surge by Arnold Schwarzenegger, offering some not so good news for the governor, Gray Davis.
Bob Franken live in L.A., takes us through it on a Monday morning.
Good morning, Bob. Interesting developments this weekend.
BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Really quite a departure from the other polls. It was done with probable voters, and the people from CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup say that it's very, very hard to identify probable voters. By the way, that's as opposed to likely voters.
Nevertheless, it is a very thorough poll, and here are the results. It says, and this is the important one, that Gray Davis is in deep trouble, because the recall is favored by 363 percent of these probable voters, with this plus or minus four points, by the way, as the error possibility in this poll. 63 percent yes, 35 percent, no.
Now you get to the replacement candidates operating on the assumption, of course, that Governor Gray Davis is going to be thrown out of office. Arnold Schwarzenegger has taken a big jump, he's now at 40 percent, 40 percent versus Cruz Bustamante at 25 percent. Tom McClintock stays the same as he had in other polls, at about 18 percent and Peter Camejo and Arianna Huffington round out things at the bottom.
As I said, the people who have taken this poll point out that it's very hard to quantify what the turnout will actually be. They also say that it's very difficult to come up with a poll model given the unique nature of this election, with 135 candidates on the recall ballot. And, of course, it's hard to figure out just how volatile things still are with just eight days to go.
With all those caveats, Arnold Schwarzenegger reacted in a very cautious way to this poll.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR CANDIDATE: I hear poll numbers all the time, so we're very happy, of course, that they're looking good. But I don't take anything for granted. I mean, to me, this is a very important week coming up now, going up and down the state, reaching out to the people, and really letting them know what my vision is, because people basically want leadership, and this is what we have is a vacuum of leadership in these last few years.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FRANKEN: As you might imagine, Bill, the Gray Davis reaction to this poll is not a positive one. His spokesman, Peter Ragone, said it's a joke -- Bill.
HEMMER: Bob, on another topic, some reports over the weekend indicating that in the past, Gray Davis when he goes negative it turns off a lot of California voters. Is there any indication that that might be the path over the next eight days?
FRANKEN: Well, the Arnold Schwarzenegger campaign is trying to exploit that, coming out with all kinds of ads, saying that here is the old Gray Davis going negative. But the Gray Davis people respond by saying that the first negative ads that appeared in this campaign were ones that were paid for on behalf of Arnold Schwarzenegger.
HEMMER: Eight days and counting. We'll see you in California, Bob.
Thanks, Bob Franken in L.A.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
