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American Morning

Saddam Tape?

Aired November 17, 2003 - 09:07   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: New audiotape as Suzanne mentioned there, reportedly from Saddam Hussein, urging more attacks on coalition forces. Our CNN analyst Ken Pollack, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, now in Baghdad, from our bureau there in central Baghdad, to talk about the significance of this latest message.
Ken, good to see that you've arrived there and you've done it safe.

There's a $25 million bounty on Saddam Hussein's head that is yet to yield any results.

What accounts for that right now, not being found, captured or killed?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, the fundamental problem that the U.S. is having in trying to get a hold of Saddam, is that unfortunately, the U.S. alienated a large segment of the Sunni population, particularly the Sunni tribes. These are the people who Saddam relied on to keep him in power while he was ruling in Iraq, and the U.S. has badly alienated them. As a result, they are deeply opposed to the U.S. occupation. Saddam is now moving among them, and they are furnishing support to his guerrilla movement. He is able to move through them, hide out in various villages, hide out in various homes, and because the people are broadly supportive of him, because they remember the good days when he was in power, and because they're opposed to the U.S., because they're afraid it's going to disenfranchise them further, Saddam's had a pretty easy time of it.

HEMMER: You mention guerrilla and a guerrilla battle. You believe this is now a guerrilla war, and the only way to win it, in your estimation, is to do it politically. Explain that to us.

POLLACK: Well, this is what we have learned from history. We've seen guerrilla wars for arguably thousands of years, but over the last 100, 200 years, when people have really been studying this phenomenon, what we found out consistently is that the best military strategy in the world is irrelevant. What you have to do, is you have to change the political perspective of the people. Guerrilla movements derive from underlying political and economic grievances. And as long as those grievances remain, there are going to be people who support the guerrillas. And under those circumstances, it is almost impossible to catch and kill every one of them, because new ones will be recruited. What you've got to do, is you've got solve those underlying economic and political grievances. And the U.S. is having a very hard time doing that, particularly with this Sunni community, who they badly alienated from the outset.

HEMMER: You've made a few observations already in the few days that you've been there in Iraq. One of them is this, the vast majority of Iraqis would prefer the U.S. were not there, some sort of necessary presence that you describe. How have you picked up on that in Baghdad?

POLLACK: Well, you just talk to Iraqis from all different stripes, all different political -- excuse me, from all different places on the political spectrum. And what they all seem to suggest is that most Iraqis would really prefer not to have the U.S. there. But most Iraqis recognize that there are such frictions within their society that if the U.S. weren't here, things could devolve very quickly to civil war. And that's why you see people saying grudgingly, we don't like you here, but we don't necessarily want you to go, what we want is for you to get this right.

Ken Pollack in Baghdad. Ken, thanks. And again, stay safe while you're there. We hope to talk to you again.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired November 17, 2003 - 09:07   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: New audiotape as Suzanne mentioned there, reportedly from Saddam Hussein, urging more attacks on coalition forces. Our CNN analyst Ken Pollack, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, now in Baghdad, from our bureau there in central Baghdad, to talk about the significance of this latest message.
Ken, good to see that you've arrived there and you've done it safe.

There's a $25 million bounty on Saddam Hussein's head that is yet to yield any results.

What accounts for that right now, not being found, captured or killed?

KEN POLLACK, CNN ANALYST: Well, the fundamental problem that the U.S. is having in trying to get a hold of Saddam, is that unfortunately, the U.S. alienated a large segment of the Sunni population, particularly the Sunni tribes. These are the people who Saddam relied on to keep him in power while he was ruling in Iraq, and the U.S. has badly alienated them. As a result, they are deeply opposed to the U.S. occupation. Saddam is now moving among them, and they are furnishing support to his guerrilla movement. He is able to move through them, hide out in various villages, hide out in various homes, and because the people are broadly supportive of him, because they remember the good days when he was in power, and because they're opposed to the U.S., because they're afraid it's going to disenfranchise them further, Saddam's had a pretty easy time of it.

HEMMER: You mention guerrilla and a guerrilla battle. You believe this is now a guerrilla war, and the only way to win it, in your estimation, is to do it politically. Explain that to us.

POLLACK: Well, this is what we have learned from history. We've seen guerrilla wars for arguably thousands of years, but over the last 100, 200 years, when people have really been studying this phenomenon, what we found out consistently is that the best military strategy in the world is irrelevant. What you have to do, is you have to change the political perspective of the people. Guerrilla movements derive from underlying political and economic grievances. And as long as those grievances remain, there are going to be people who support the guerrillas. And under those circumstances, it is almost impossible to catch and kill every one of them, because new ones will be recruited. What you've got to do, is you've got solve those underlying economic and political grievances. And the U.S. is having a very hard time doing that, particularly with this Sunni community, who they badly alienated from the outset.

HEMMER: You've made a few observations already in the few days that you've been there in Iraq. One of them is this, the vast majority of Iraqis would prefer the U.S. were not there, some sort of necessary presence that you describe. How have you picked up on that in Baghdad?

POLLACK: Well, you just talk to Iraqis from all different stripes, all different political -- excuse me, from all different places on the political spectrum. And what they all seem to suggest is that most Iraqis would really prefer not to have the U.S. there. But most Iraqis recognize that there are such frictions within their society that if the U.S. weren't here, things could devolve very quickly to civil war. And that's why you see people saying grudgingly, we don't like you here, but we don't necessarily want you to go, what we want is for you to get this right.

Ken Pollack in Baghdad. Ken, thanks. And again, stay safe while you're there. We hope to talk to you again.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com