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American Morning

Shift by Libya

Aired December 23, 2003 - 07:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi is hoping to begin a new era of relations with the U.S. In an exclusive interview with CNN's Andrea Koppel, Colonel Gadhafi talked about his decision to allow international inspectors into key weapons sites. He also made a surprising admission about suspicions that his country has weapons of mass destruction.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOAMMAR GADHAFI, LIBYAN LEADER: I told you we haven't these weapons, WMD. We haven't these. And there is a difference between WMD and machines or activities or (UNINTELLIGIBLE) something like this, that may lead in a long time to this. We have just some (UNINTELLIGIBLE) some machines. They may be used for this purposes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: For some analysis of the shift by Libya, we're joined by University of Maryland Professor of International Politics Shibley Telhami.

He's also a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and he joins us from our Washington bureau this morning.

Nice to see you, sir.

Thanks for being with us.

SHIBLEY TELHAMI, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND: Good morning.

O'BRIEN: Let's first and foremost talk about motivation and why now. To what degree do you think that Colonel Gadhafi is motivated by the 100,000 troops in the Middle East and to what degree do you think he is motivated by the pictures of Saddam Hussein being removed from the hole in the ground where he was brought out by U.S. troops?

TELHAMI: First, let's remember, this is really closing the PanAm 103 case for him. This has been an important case, a troubling one. One of his agents was implicated in it and he had to close that chapter, and that was part of the cost. In return, he's giving something that really hasn't helped him at all, a capacity to produce but no really significant capabilities.

When you look at what made him do it, I do think that it's both, certainly, the incentives and threats. But I think you have to look at the incentives as being more important. Recall that negotiations have been going on for a long time. People now interpret the American presence in Iraq actually to be weakening the U.S., to make it harder for the U.S. to do something else, because they sense the U.S. is, in a way, trapped in Iraq. So in that sense I think many of the governments that have felt nervous because of the aggressive U.S. posture, they now feel a little bit more comfortable because they think the U.S. isn't just about to do it.

O'BRIEN: Well, let's talk a little more specifically, then, about the diplomatic efforts.

What do the diplomatic efforts offer? What does Gadhafi get out of these negotiations?

You seem to think more and more pressure than anything else.

TELHAMI: Well, the removal of sanctions, the rapprochement with the U.S., political acceptance in the West, opening his oil industry for Western investment. All of that is significantly important for him, economically, politically, at a time when there is stagnation in much of the region itself and economic trouble within Libya itself. So, clearly he gets legitimacy, he gets economic benefits, he gets political benefits.

O'BRIEN: He has talked about wanting peace and normalization.

Do you think that that's a true motivation, as well?

TELHAMI: Well, you know, Gadhafi, as I said, is really a very unusual man and it's very difficult to say that he's an example of anything. He's changed his mind a number of times before. But I do think that always he looks after his own interests and I think he has proven to be very good at surviving and very good at reading the moment to maximize his power. This is another one of those shifts.

O'BRIEN: You say it's hard to say that Gadhafi is an example of anything. But I'm curious to know if this example can be translated to other countries, like Iran and in North Korea or is it like apples and oranges and they're just different models and it wouldn't work?

TELHAMI: Well, I think, you know, there are countries that want to learn something. They want to proceed. They might use this as sort of a figure leaf to do something, an occasion, an opportunity, if they want to do it. We have to look at North Korea, Iran. They have different political calculations and, for that matter, different security calculations. Libya really isn't at war. It doesn't feel threatened immediately by anyone. And so its calculations are very different from these countries.

But on the other hand, I think some countries may say well, look, they've done it, it's beneficial, let's do it, too. It will make it easier to do politically. And frankly, even for the Bush administration, remember, this is an administration that has been reluctant to offer incentives in its negotiations with North Korea. It's relied more on the stick than on the carrot. If the carrot seems to be working, if the American public applaud, if the international community applauds, it's a success story, it might actually prod them to do more in relation to other cases, as well.

O'BRIEN: Professor Shibley Telhami, thanks for joining us this morning.

Nice to see you.

TELHAMI: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com







Aired December 23, 2003 - 07:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Well, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi is hoping to begin a new era of relations with the U.S. In an exclusive interview with CNN's Andrea Koppel, Colonel Gadhafi talked about his decision to allow international inspectors into key weapons sites. He also made a surprising admission about suspicions that his country has weapons of mass destruction.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MOAMMAR GADHAFI, LIBYAN LEADER: I told you we haven't these weapons, WMD. We haven't these. And there is a difference between WMD and machines or activities or (UNINTELLIGIBLE) something like this, that may lead in a long time to this. We have just some (UNINTELLIGIBLE) some machines. They may be used for this purposes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: For some analysis of the shift by Libya, we're joined by University of Maryland Professor of International Politics Shibley Telhami.

He's also a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute and he joins us from our Washington bureau this morning.

Nice to see you, sir.

Thanks for being with us.

SHIBLEY TELHAMI, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND: Good morning.

O'BRIEN: Let's first and foremost talk about motivation and why now. To what degree do you think that Colonel Gadhafi is motivated by the 100,000 troops in the Middle East and to what degree do you think he is motivated by the pictures of Saddam Hussein being removed from the hole in the ground where he was brought out by U.S. troops?

TELHAMI: First, let's remember, this is really closing the PanAm 103 case for him. This has been an important case, a troubling one. One of his agents was implicated in it and he had to close that chapter, and that was part of the cost. In return, he's giving something that really hasn't helped him at all, a capacity to produce but no really significant capabilities.

When you look at what made him do it, I do think that it's both, certainly, the incentives and threats. But I think you have to look at the incentives as being more important. Recall that negotiations have been going on for a long time. People now interpret the American presence in Iraq actually to be weakening the U.S., to make it harder for the U.S. to do something else, because they sense the U.S. is, in a way, trapped in Iraq. So in that sense I think many of the governments that have felt nervous because of the aggressive U.S. posture, they now feel a little bit more comfortable because they think the U.S. isn't just about to do it.

O'BRIEN: Well, let's talk a little more specifically, then, about the diplomatic efforts.

What do the diplomatic efforts offer? What does Gadhafi get out of these negotiations?

You seem to think more and more pressure than anything else.

TELHAMI: Well, the removal of sanctions, the rapprochement with the U.S., political acceptance in the West, opening his oil industry for Western investment. All of that is significantly important for him, economically, politically, at a time when there is stagnation in much of the region itself and economic trouble within Libya itself. So, clearly he gets legitimacy, he gets economic benefits, he gets political benefits.

O'BRIEN: He has talked about wanting peace and normalization.

Do you think that that's a true motivation, as well?

TELHAMI: Well, you know, Gadhafi, as I said, is really a very unusual man and it's very difficult to say that he's an example of anything. He's changed his mind a number of times before. But I do think that always he looks after his own interests and I think he has proven to be very good at surviving and very good at reading the moment to maximize his power. This is another one of those shifts.

O'BRIEN: You say it's hard to say that Gadhafi is an example of anything. But I'm curious to know if this example can be translated to other countries, like Iran and in North Korea or is it like apples and oranges and they're just different models and it wouldn't work?

TELHAMI: Well, I think, you know, there are countries that want to learn something. They want to proceed. They might use this as sort of a figure leaf to do something, an occasion, an opportunity, if they want to do it. We have to look at North Korea, Iran. They have different political calculations and, for that matter, different security calculations. Libya really isn't at war. It doesn't feel threatened immediately by anyone. And so its calculations are very different from these countries.

But on the other hand, I think some countries may say well, look, they've done it, it's beneficial, let's do it, too. It will make it easier to do politically. And frankly, even for the Bush administration, remember, this is an administration that has been reluctant to offer incentives in its negotiations with North Korea. It's relied more on the stick than on the carrot. If the carrot seems to be working, if the American public applaud, if the international community applauds, it's a success story, it might actually prod them to do more in relation to other cases, as well.

O'BRIEN: Professor Shibley Telhami, thanks for joining us this morning.

Nice to see you.

TELHAMI: My pleasure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com