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American Morning

Who Made Political News in 2003?

Aired December 25, 2003 - 07:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The presidential election year is about to begin, but who made political news in 2003? Who was naughty, who was nice?
CNN's political analyst Ron Brownstein takes us on a look back at that -- good morning.

Nice to see you.

Thanks for being with us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

Happy holidays.

O'BRIEN: Thank you, and likewise.

Let's jump right in and start with the guy in charge, President Bush.

Give me an assessment of his year. It really ended on an upswing and an up tick, certainly, in the polls. But give me an assessment of the whole year.

BROWNSTEIN: I think Santa was very schizoid toward President Bush this year. He gave the president and the country a remarkably swift military victory in Iraq, but then we saw months of chaos, turmoil, violence, far beyond what most people expected in the aftermath. And then another rapid turn of events, a dramatic turn of events with the apprehension of Saddam Hussein and the hope that that could point the way to a more stable 2004 in Iraq.

The same thing, really, on the economy, where we've had an economic recovery. The overall growth numbers have been very strong this fall. The bulls are running again on Wall Street.

But job growth continues to lag for President Bush and he's still at risk of being the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs. And his term, finally, under the tree, the Santa may have left President Bush the one Democrat as front runner, Howard Dean, that many Republicans think will be the easiest to beat next year.

O'BRIEN: Well, let's talk a little bit about Howard Dean.

He's leading, of course, as you mentioned, but he had a couple of rough weeks when he sort of had nothing to talk about when Saddam Hussein was captured.

Give me an assessment of his year, especially his anti-war platform as it stands right now.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, let's start with sort of the obvious. If Santa left George Bush Howard Dean, he left Howard Dean George Bush. What's really created the Howard Dean campaign is that he's tapped into, more effectively than any other Democrat, the antagonism toward Bush among the Democratic rank and file. The president's approval rating, while over 90 percent consistently among Republicans, is usually down around 20 or 25 percent among Democrats. And Dean really has taken that and really made more use of it than any of the other candidates, particularly by opposing the war.

The opposition to the war is what really allowed him to stand out from the other candidates, when you talk to his supporters around the country.

The risk for the Democrats, though, is that the deterioration of events in Iraq in 2003 really provided the momentum for Dean, has allowed him to emerge as the clear front runner. If things turn around with the capture of Hussein and start to improve in Iraq in 2004, they could be very much out on a limb with a candidate who is defined as against the war when the war may look like a better investment and a better risk.

O'BRIEN: And we all know all of this can change on a dime at any time.

Let's talk about Hillary Clinton. Her book did really well in the past year, better than many people had predicted, in fact. She also, to some degree, was the elephant in the room when it came to the Democratic candidates, everyone trying to figure out if she was going to run, even though she continually said she wasn't going to run.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, I think it was a very good for Hillary Clinton on several fronts. As you mentioned, the book showed that she had a big popular following. The polls showed that if and when she decides she's ready to run for president, presumably in 2008, if the Democrats don't win, there is a big Democratic audience for her. She positioned herself to the center in the party in counterpoint to, really, the overall move of the Democratic 2004 candidates toward the left. And, finally, if you believe, as many of the Republicans do, that Howard Dean, as the front runner, will have a hard time with George Bush next year, that could be a present for Hillary Clinton, too, because it would leave a field open for her in 2008 if one of the Democrats can't get the president -- can't get past the president next year.

O'BRIEN: A good year for Arnold Schwarzenegger. A bad year for Gray Davis.

Does Gray Davis leave politics now? Is he pretty much done?

BROWNSTEIN: I would assume he's done. I mean he talks about possibly coming back. I think it would be very hard. You know, Schwarzenegger, the two are really, as you suggest, Soledad, intimately related because it's hard to believe that Arnold Schwarzenegger could have survived the kind of allegations that he faced about his personal behavior and the questions about his readiness for the job in the final weeks of that campaign without the enormous antipathy in the state for Gray Davis, the great desire in California to see him replaced.

In effect, voters decided they were going to get rid of Gray Davis and Schwarzenegger was able to ride that to the office.

Now, he's got a much tougher challenge, of building a constituency of his own.

O'BRIEN: CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein joining us this morning.

Happy holidays.

Thanks for being with us.

BROWNSTEIN: Happy holidays to you.

O'BRIEN: Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired December 25, 2003 - 07:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The presidential election year is about to begin, but who made political news in 2003? Who was naughty, who was nice?
CNN's political analyst Ron Brownstein takes us on a look back at that -- good morning.

Nice to see you.

Thanks for being with us.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

Happy holidays.

O'BRIEN: Thank you, and likewise.

Let's jump right in and start with the guy in charge, President Bush.

Give me an assessment of his year. It really ended on an upswing and an up tick, certainly, in the polls. But give me an assessment of the whole year.

BROWNSTEIN: I think Santa was very schizoid toward President Bush this year. He gave the president and the country a remarkably swift military victory in Iraq, but then we saw months of chaos, turmoil, violence, far beyond what most people expected in the aftermath. And then another rapid turn of events, a dramatic turn of events with the apprehension of Saddam Hussein and the hope that that could point the way to a more stable 2004 in Iraq.

The same thing, really, on the economy, where we've had an economic recovery. The overall growth numbers have been very strong this fall. The bulls are running again on Wall Street.

But job growth continues to lag for President Bush and he's still at risk of being the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs. And his term, finally, under the tree, the Santa may have left President Bush the one Democrat as front runner, Howard Dean, that many Republicans think will be the easiest to beat next year.

O'BRIEN: Well, let's talk a little bit about Howard Dean.

He's leading, of course, as you mentioned, but he had a couple of rough weeks when he sort of had nothing to talk about when Saddam Hussein was captured.

Give me an assessment of his year, especially his anti-war platform as it stands right now.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, let's start with sort of the obvious. If Santa left George Bush Howard Dean, he left Howard Dean George Bush. What's really created the Howard Dean campaign is that he's tapped into, more effectively than any other Democrat, the antagonism toward Bush among the Democratic rank and file. The president's approval rating, while over 90 percent consistently among Republicans, is usually down around 20 or 25 percent among Democrats. And Dean really has taken that and really made more use of it than any of the other candidates, particularly by opposing the war.

The opposition to the war is what really allowed him to stand out from the other candidates, when you talk to his supporters around the country.

The risk for the Democrats, though, is that the deterioration of events in Iraq in 2003 really provided the momentum for Dean, has allowed him to emerge as the clear front runner. If things turn around with the capture of Hussein and start to improve in Iraq in 2004, they could be very much out on a limb with a candidate who is defined as against the war when the war may look like a better investment and a better risk.

O'BRIEN: And we all know all of this can change on a dime at any time.

Let's talk about Hillary Clinton. Her book did really well in the past year, better than many people had predicted, in fact. She also, to some degree, was the elephant in the room when it came to the Democratic candidates, everyone trying to figure out if she was going to run, even though she continually said she wasn't going to run.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, I think it was a very good for Hillary Clinton on several fronts. As you mentioned, the book showed that she had a big popular following. The polls showed that if and when she decides she's ready to run for president, presumably in 2008, if the Democrats don't win, there is a big Democratic audience for her. She positioned herself to the center in the party in counterpoint to, really, the overall move of the Democratic 2004 candidates toward the left. And, finally, if you believe, as many of the Republicans do, that Howard Dean, as the front runner, will have a hard time with George Bush next year, that could be a present for Hillary Clinton, too, because it would leave a field open for her in 2008 if one of the Democrats can't get the president -- can't get past the president next year.

O'BRIEN: A good year for Arnold Schwarzenegger. A bad year for Gray Davis.

Does Gray Davis leave politics now? Is he pretty much done?

BROWNSTEIN: I would assume he's done. I mean he talks about possibly coming back. I think it would be very hard. You know, Schwarzenegger, the two are really, as you suggest, Soledad, intimately related because it's hard to believe that Arnold Schwarzenegger could have survived the kind of allegations that he faced about his personal behavior and the questions about his readiness for the job in the final weeks of that campaign without the enormous antipathy in the state for Gray Davis, the great desire in California to see him replaced.

In effect, voters decided they were going to get rid of Gray Davis and Schwarzenegger was able to ride that to the office.

Now, he's got a much tougher challenge, of building a constituency of his own.

O'BRIEN: CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein joining us this morning.

Happy holidays.

Thanks for being with us.

BROWNSTEIN: Happy holidays to you.

O'BRIEN: Thanks.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com