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American Morning

America Votes

Aired January 02, 2004 - 07:17   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The arrival of 2004 means that primaries and caucuses are just around the corner. Later this month, Democrats will start casting votes for White House hopefuls -- first in Iowa, then in New Hampshire.
Let's go ahead and look ahead into the election year with CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein of the "Los Angeles Times." He's joining us this morning from Washington.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

COLLINS: Good morning. Happy new year. All that jazz.

Happy new year to you, yes.

COLLINS: Hey, it is going to be a very busy year obviously. A lot of people are gearing up for it. But the Iowa caucus is just over two weeks away. Then, of course, we have the New Hampshire primary January 27, Howard Dean ahead in the polls, both of those races. What do the other candidates need to do at this point to maybe try and stop that momentum a little bit?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, first of all, you underscore one of the real facts here, which is that this is really upon us. It's possible we'll have a Democratic nominee in as soon as six weeks, almost certainly by the beginning of March.

Well, look, the other candidates have to change the dynamic, have to break Howard Dean's momentum in some way. Right now, as you say, he's ahead in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's raised the most money, and he has the strongest organization by and large in the states that follow.

I think if anyone is going to really have a realistic chance of beating him, they have to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire with momentum also. He can't be the only candidate who comes out of those first two races with any head of steam, and they can do that either beating him in one of those states or perhaps by someone upsetting the predictions and finishing a surprise second.

COLLINS: Well, as you know, though, Wesley Clark and Senator Joe Lieberman are both going to be skipping Iowa.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COLLINS: Is this going to hurt them? BROWNSTEIN: Well, it keeps them out of the news cycle, Heidi, for the next 17 days while we're focusing on Iowa, but it does, on the other hand, allow them to spend a lot more time in New Hampshire. I think Clark is sort of indicative of what I was talking about. If Howard Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he's going to be very hard to stop in any circumstance. But if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire and Dick Gephardt comes in second in Iowa, suppressing John Kerry, and John Kerry comes in second in New Hampshire, suppressing Wesley Clark, it's possible that we'll get past these first two contests with only Howard Dean having any real momentum.

So, I think it's important for Clark in particular and certainly Joe Lieberman to finish a surprise second in New Hampshire that would give them some kind of boost going into those contests on February 3 and then the ones that follow in the middle of the month.

COLLINS: Well, you know, you bring up Dick Gephardt, and we know that he won in Iowa in 1988 but then lost the nomination. How important is it going to be for him this time around to do really well in these early caucuses?

BROWNSTEIN: What do they say? Necessary...

COLLINS: Early in the caucuses?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, what they do they say? Necessary but not sufficient. Winning in Iowa is probably a prerequisite for Dick Gephardt having any kind of viable chance at the nomination. But by itself, as the 1988 precedence suggests, it's not going to be enough.

Gephardt does need to get past Howard Dean in Iowa, where he seems to be trailing him narrowly. If he does, he has an opportunity to compete in South Carolina, where his tough on trade message has some resonance. He has a key endorsement from the most prominent African-American politician in the state, James Clyburn. And then he would go on to a showdown with Dean in Michigan on February 7, where obviously the tough on trade message is resonant, too.

Interestingly, Michigan is already voting through the Internet voting and early voting. People could begin requesting ballots as of midnight on New Year's Day, and by the middle of next week there should be large numbers of people casting votes that count on the Internet and through the mail in Michigan.

COLLINS: All right, yes, we're definitely going to keep our eye on that. Very interesting in all of this. Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, from D.C. this morning. Thanks so much, Ron.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Heidi.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.






Aired January 2, 2004 - 07:17   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: The arrival of 2004 means that primaries and caucuses are just around the corner. Later this month, Democrats will start casting votes for White House hopefuls -- first in Iowa, then in New Hampshire.
Let's go ahead and look ahead into the election year with CNN political analyst Ron Brownstein of the "Los Angeles Times." He's joining us this morning from Washington.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.

COLLINS: Good morning. Happy new year. All that jazz.

Happy new year to you, yes.

COLLINS: Hey, it is going to be a very busy year obviously. A lot of people are gearing up for it. But the Iowa caucus is just over two weeks away. Then, of course, we have the New Hampshire primary January 27, Howard Dean ahead in the polls, both of those races. What do the other candidates need to do at this point to maybe try and stop that momentum a little bit?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, first of all, you underscore one of the real facts here, which is that this is really upon us. It's possible we'll have a Democratic nominee in as soon as six weeks, almost certainly by the beginning of March.

Well, look, the other candidates have to change the dynamic, have to break Howard Dean's momentum in some way. Right now, as you say, he's ahead in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's raised the most money, and he has the strongest organization by and large in the states that follow.

I think if anyone is going to really have a realistic chance of beating him, they have to come out of Iowa and New Hampshire with momentum also. He can't be the only candidate who comes out of those first two races with any head of steam, and they can do that either beating him in one of those states or perhaps by someone upsetting the predictions and finishing a surprise second.

COLLINS: Well, as you know, though, Wesley Clark and Senator Joe Lieberman are both going to be skipping Iowa.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

COLLINS: Is this going to hurt them? BROWNSTEIN: Well, it keeps them out of the news cycle, Heidi, for the next 17 days while we're focusing on Iowa, but it does, on the other hand, allow them to spend a lot more time in New Hampshire. I think Clark is sort of indicative of what I was talking about. If Howard Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he's going to be very hard to stop in any circumstance. But if he wins Iowa and New Hampshire and Dick Gephardt comes in second in Iowa, suppressing John Kerry, and John Kerry comes in second in New Hampshire, suppressing Wesley Clark, it's possible that we'll get past these first two contests with only Howard Dean having any real momentum.

So, I think it's important for Clark in particular and certainly Joe Lieberman to finish a surprise second in New Hampshire that would give them some kind of boost going into those contests on February 3 and then the ones that follow in the middle of the month.

COLLINS: Well, you know, you bring up Dick Gephardt, and we know that he won in Iowa in 1988 but then lost the nomination. How important is it going to be for him this time around to do really well in these early caucuses?

BROWNSTEIN: What do they say? Necessary...

COLLINS: Early in the caucuses?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, what they do they say? Necessary but not sufficient. Winning in Iowa is probably a prerequisite for Dick Gephardt having any kind of viable chance at the nomination. But by itself, as the 1988 precedence suggests, it's not going to be enough.

Gephardt does need to get past Howard Dean in Iowa, where he seems to be trailing him narrowly. If he does, he has an opportunity to compete in South Carolina, where his tough on trade message has some resonance. He has a key endorsement from the most prominent African-American politician in the state, James Clyburn. And then he would go on to a showdown with Dean in Michigan on February 7, where obviously the tough on trade message is resonant, too.

Interestingly, Michigan is already voting through the Internet voting and early voting. People could begin requesting ballots as of midnight on New Year's Day, and by the middle of next week there should be large numbers of people casting votes that count on the Internet and through the mail in Michigan.

COLLINS: All right, yes, we're definitely going to keep our eye on that. Very interesting in all of this. Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, from D.C. this morning. Thanks so much, Ron.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you, Heidi.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.