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American Morning
Shift Near Top for Democratic Presidential Candidates
Aired January 07, 2004 - 07:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Political pundits always say that things can change in the blink of an eye during a presidential campaign. A new survey out by CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup indicates that could be happening right now, maybe. Among the Democrats jostling for the party's presidential nomination, we're starting to see a bit of a shift near the top.
Here's Bill Schneider back with us, our senior political analyst.
I know you love this stuff -- Bill, good morning to you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: The first screen we'll put up for our viewers, this is what we found in our latest survey here. Howard Dean, 24 percent. But Wesley Clark now, what appears to be within striking distance of being, at least, to the top of the survey, anyway; only four points behind.
What's happening?
SCHNEIDER: What's happening is the whole process is going on in fast forward right now. You know, the front runner has been established before a single vote is cast. The press has virtually declared Howard Dean as the winner. And now, already, the voters are beginning to have second thoughts. They're saying wait a minute, do we really want this guy? And the only candidate who's showing momentum over the last month is Wesley Clark.
Why? Well, the issue is electability. A lot of Democrats wonder, they desperately want to beat George Bush, but is Howard Dean the guy who can do it?
Wesley Clark is appealing to voters, that he's more electable than Howard Dean. Something like nearly two thirds, 64 percent of Democrats, say that they might change their minds. The situation is very, very fluid. They haven't made a final choice. So this thing is shifting by the day.
HEMMER: And you would also admit that in the greater priority of the country, that people who are going to go out and vote next November don't really pay attention till next September or even October.
Correct or not?
SCHNEIDER: That is exactly correct. They're only just beginning to pay attention, which is why this whole fast forward process -- they call it front loading here in Washington -- looks a little bit absurd, because it could be over before anybody is beginning to pay attention to it.
HEMMER: Yes, and I think a lot of it smells right now.
You remember last year, John McCain, then Governor Bush were going at it in a very similar fashion that we're seeing shaping up right now? But look at the job approval rating right now for the president, up to 60 percent now.
How long has it been since we have seen this number for the White House?
SCHNEIDER: At this point in the president's bid for reelection, we haven't seen this in over 20 years. I mean look, it's back to 1980 that we've checked. When Carter was running for reelection, when Reagan was running for reelection, Clinton, the first President Bush, none of them had an approval rating quite this high. Sixty percent is usually enough to get reelected.
The problem is the election isn't being held today. The election is being held in November. Lots of things could change. The situation in Iraq is very dangerous. The economy, while it looks like it's doing better, anything could happen any time.
The real news here and the things that -- the thing that's getting the Democrats very nervous is the trial heat between George W. Bush and Howard Dean. When voters were asked how would you pick right now, Bush is running more than 20 points ahead of Howard Dean. That's the principal reason why, while he's still the front runner, his momentum may have been stalled, and they're looking at Wesley Clark as someone who might be more electable than Howard Dean.
HEMMER: In the time we have left, let's go to Sacramento. Arnold Schwarzenegger yesterday, 60 days, state of his state address. I want you to listen to part of his speech from yesterday then I want to ask you something specific about how it was made.
Listen to Arnold Schwarzenegger.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: I am a salesman by nature and now most of my energies will go into selling California. If you can sell...
(INTERRUPTED BY APPLAUSE)
SCHWARZENEGGER: If I can sell movies to my -- tickets to my movies like "Red Sonja" or "Last Action Hero," you know I can sell just about anything.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: As a Californian yourself, Bill, by nature, he's got the humor down.
Does he look more like a governor 60 days later or still like an actor?
SCHNEIDER: Well, he's trying to do both, obviously. He's saying I'm going to take my skills as an actor apply them to the job of governor. This was an intensely personal speech. He kept saying I'm going to do it, it's my program, I'm going to sell it and if the legislature doesn't cooperate with me, I'm going to go directly to the people and put these things on the ballot and appeal to them for support.
It's an intensely personal mode of governing, which means he's going to have to govern by the polls. He has to keep his popularity up so that the voters will follow him and not the legislature.
HEMMER: He's going to carry the label of the jobs czar. We'll see if the theme sticks.
Thank you, Bill.
SCHNEIDER: All right.
HEMMER: That state needs a lot.
Bill Schneider, talk to you again.
SCHNEIDER: OK.
HEMMER: Appreciate it.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 7, 2004 - 07:33 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Political pundits always say that things can change in the blink of an eye during a presidential campaign. A new survey out by CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup indicates that could be happening right now, maybe. Among the Democrats jostling for the party's presidential nomination, we're starting to see a bit of a shift near the top.
Here's Bill Schneider back with us, our senior political analyst.
I know you love this stuff -- Bill, good morning to you.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: The first screen we'll put up for our viewers, this is what we found in our latest survey here. Howard Dean, 24 percent. But Wesley Clark now, what appears to be within striking distance of being, at least, to the top of the survey, anyway; only four points behind.
What's happening?
SCHNEIDER: What's happening is the whole process is going on in fast forward right now. You know, the front runner has been established before a single vote is cast. The press has virtually declared Howard Dean as the winner. And now, already, the voters are beginning to have second thoughts. They're saying wait a minute, do we really want this guy? And the only candidate who's showing momentum over the last month is Wesley Clark.
Why? Well, the issue is electability. A lot of Democrats wonder, they desperately want to beat George Bush, but is Howard Dean the guy who can do it?
Wesley Clark is appealing to voters, that he's more electable than Howard Dean. Something like nearly two thirds, 64 percent of Democrats, say that they might change their minds. The situation is very, very fluid. They haven't made a final choice. So this thing is shifting by the day.
HEMMER: And you would also admit that in the greater priority of the country, that people who are going to go out and vote next November don't really pay attention till next September or even October.
Correct or not?
SCHNEIDER: That is exactly correct. They're only just beginning to pay attention, which is why this whole fast forward process -- they call it front loading here in Washington -- looks a little bit absurd, because it could be over before anybody is beginning to pay attention to it.
HEMMER: Yes, and I think a lot of it smells right now.
You remember last year, John McCain, then Governor Bush were going at it in a very similar fashion that we're seeing shaping up right now? But look at the job approval rating right now for the president, up to 60 percent now.
How long has it been since we have seen this number for the White House?
SCHNEIDER: At this point in the president's bid for reelection, we haven't seen this in over 20 years. I mean look, it's back to 1980 that we've checked. When Carter was running for reelection, when Reagan was running for reelection, Clinton, the first President Bush, none of them had an approval rating quite this high. Sixty percent is usually enough to get reelected.
The problem is the election isn't being held today. The election is being held in November. Lots of things could change. The situation in Iraq is very dangerous. The economy, while it looks like it's doing better, anything could happen any time.
The real news here and the things that -- the thing that's getting the Democrats very nervous is the trial heat between George W. Bush and Howard Dean. When voters were asked how would you pick right now, Bush is running more than 20 points ahead of Howard Dean. That's the principal reason why, while he's still the front runner, his momentum may have been stalled, and they're looking at Wesley Clark as someone who might be more electable than Howard Dean.
HEMMER: In the time we have left, let's go to Sacramento. Arnold Schwarzenegger yesterday, 60 days, state of his state address. I want you to listen to part of his speech from yesterday then I want to ask you something specific about how it was made.
Listen to Arnold Schwarzenegger.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER (R), CALIFORNIA: I am a salesman by nature and now most of my energies will go into selling California. If you can sell...
(INTERRUPTED BY APPLAUSE)
SCHWARZENEGGER: If I can sell movies to my -- tickets to my movies like "Red Sonja" or "Last Action Hero," you know I can sell just about anything.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: As a Californian yourself, Bill, by nature, he's got the humor down.
Does he look more like a governor 60 days later or still like an actor?
SCHNEIDER: Well, he's trying to do both, obviously. He's saying I'm going to take my skills as an actor apply them to the job of governor. This was an intensely personal speech. He kept saying I'm going to do it, it's my program, I'm going to sell it and if the legislature doesn't cooperate with me, I'm going to go directly to the people and put these things on the ballot and appeal to them for support.
It's an intensely personal mode of governing, which means he's going to have to govern by the polls. He has to keep his popularity up so that the voters will follow him and not the legislature.
HEMMER: He's going to carry the label of the jobs czar. We'll see if the theme sticks.
Thank you, Bill.
SCHNEIDER: All right.
HEMMER: That state needs a lot.
Bill Schneider, talk to you again.
SCHNEIDER: OK.
HEMMER: Appreciate it.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
