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American Morning
President Bush's Reelection Chances Looking Healthy Today
Aired January 07, 2004 - 08:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush's reelection chances looking healthy today, the start of the year, anyway, according to new poll numbers. The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll finds 60 percent of those surveyed approved of the way the president's handling his job and there are political points possibly today with Latino voters when the president makes a proposal that would lead to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
More thoughts now with Jeff Greenfield, our senior political analyst.
Nice to see you.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
HEMMER: Let's get to immigration in a moment.
The poll numbers say what, 10 months away?
GREENFIELD: The economy is moving up, Saddam's captured, Iraq seems to be calming down and so the numbers go up. Three days ago, we had Howard Dean within six points of George Bush. Now he's 18 points behind. This is King Canoe (ph) trying to hold back the tide, but I've been, you know, I keep saying wait, take a breath.
HEMMER: Yes.
GREENFIELD: We are obsessing. You know, the oracle of Delphi in Greece, which I visited this past summer, people used to sacrifice goats and chickens and say what's going to happen. Now we have polls.
HEMMER: That we do. You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Let's talk about immigration right now. All you've got to do is read the e-mails that Jack's getting today. It is a hot button issue.
GREENFIELD: Absolutely.
HEMMER: It has been for a while.
GREENFIELD: Absolutely.
HEMMER: Tell us why.
GREENFIELD: The, you know, the whole issue of immigration, even legal immigration, has always been contentious. You can go back to the 1850s, the so-called no nothings built a powerful political following by opposing the influx of immigrants back in those days. They were talking about the Irish and other Catholic immigrants and every group, from the Chinese in California to southern Europeans of the 1950s, have faced official and political displeasure, some of it based on pretty blatantly nativist notions that these aliens would undermine our culture and spread crime and disease.
In our time, the case against illegal immigration is broader, because critics will say look, the cost in terms of education and health care greatly outweighs whatever taxes those groups pay. They argue they take jobs away from Americans and lower the wage base. And, of course, after September 11, immigration foes said look, that porous Mexican border, a huge security issue, an invitation for terrorists to enter the United States.
And then you have the argument on the other side that these workers are desperately needed by American employers, they take jobs that other people won't and that they argue that at least some of this opposition is a matter of prejudice.
HEMMER: So then what is the likely proposal we'll hear today?
GREENFIELD: Well, the president, the White House briefed reporters last night and it seems to be something along the lines that Senator John McCain and two Arizona House members have suggested, that if there are American employers, U.S. employers with jobs waiting, then these workers, so-called guest workers, no matter how they got here, can take these jobs.
The other point about it is, and this is the one where I think you're going to really see some political pressure, the president will apparently propose that these people begin, undocumented workers, they're called, or illegal immigrants, be allowed to apply for legal status. They might pay some penalty for having jumped the line, but they'd be allowed to move to a permanent legal status, the so-called green card, and ultimately citizenship and apparently there might be a proposal for tighter border security.
HEMMER: Well, politics is your game. I have to think that politics could be a bit tricky here.
GREENFIELD: Tricky is an understatement. I mean, on the one hand, you have massive opposition to the whole idea of illegal immigrants either being here, and especially getting any kind of reward. You'll remember, Bill, last year California Governor Gray Davis signed a law that let illegal immigrants get a driver's license. That helped lose him his job. And one of the first things Governor Schwarzenegger and the legislature in California did was to repeal that.
But we have also seen in California that when immigration is politicized, as the Republicans did 10 years ago, it helped create a backlash among Hispanic citizens and Hispanic voters, they're a rapidly growing force in American politics. In the last presidential election, 11 percent of the Florida vote -- you remember Florida -- 10 percent in Arizona, 14 percent in California, 32 percent in New Mexico was Hispanic. There's no doubt the political wing of the Bush White House is acutely aware of those numbers and they're also aware that it's an issue that fires yup a lot of conservatives who are already calling this notion effective amnesty and that September 11 has made it even more contentious.
So it's going to be, this is a tricky navigation for them.
HEMMER: Where do you think he finds the greatest opposition? Is it from within his own party?
GREENFIELD: Oh, without any question. The Democratic candidates, for all kinds of reasons, you know, ideological and political, have always been more sympathetic to undocumented workers, by and large. It's the -- and within the Republican ranks, there's a big split on the whole issue of immigration.
So, yes, his opposition is going to come from within his own party on this one.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
HEMMER: More e-mails on this with Jack later this hour.
Also, a bit later today live coverage here on CNN. Get it right about 2:45 Eastern time, 11:45 out on the West Coast, that proposal will become public then.
Thanks.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 7, 2004 - 08:17 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: President Bush's reelection chances looking healthy today, the start of the year, anyway, according to new poll numbers. The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll finds 60 percent of those surveyed approved of the way the president's handling his job and there are political points possibly today with Latino voters when the president makes a proposal that would lead to citizenship for illegal immigrants.
More thoughts now with Jeff Greenfield, our senior political analyst.
Nice to see you.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
HEMMER: Let's get to immigration in a moment.
The poll numbers say what, 10 months away?
GREENFIELD: The economy is moving up, Saddam's captured, Iraq seems to be calming down and so the numbers go up. Three days ago, we had Howard Dean within six points of George Bush. Now he's 18 points behind. This is King Canoe (ph) trying to hold back the tide, but I've been, you know, I keep saying wait, take a breath.
HEMMER: Yes.
GREENFIELD: We are obsessing. You know, the oracle of Delphi in Greece, which I visited this past summer, people used to sacrifice goats and chickens and say what's going to happen. Now we have polls.
HEMMER: That we do. You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
Let's talk about immigration right now. All you've got to do is read the e-mails that Jack's getting today. It is a hot button issue.
GREENFIELD: Absolutely.
HEMMER: It has been for a while.
GREENFIELD: Absolutely.
HEMMER: Tell us why.
GREENFIELD: The, you know, the whole issue of immigration, even legal immigration, has always been contentious. You can go back to the 1850s, the so-called no nothings built a powerful political following by opposing the influx of immigrants back in those days. They were talking about the Irish and other Catholic immigrants and every group, from the Chinese in California to southern Europeans of the 1950s, have faced official and political displeasure, some of it based on pretty blatantly nativist notions that these aliens would undermine our culture and spread crime and disease.
In our time, the case against illegal immigration is broader, because critics will say look, the cost in terms of education and health care greatly outweighs whatever taxes those groups pay. They argue they take jobs away from Americans and lower the wage base. And, of course, after September 11, immigration foes said look, that porous Mexican border, a huge security issue, an invitation for terrorists to enter the United States.
And then you have the argument on the other side that these workers are desperately needed by American employers, they take jobs that other people won't and that they argue that at least some of this opposition is a matter of prejudice.
HEMMER: So then what is the likely proposal we'll hear today?
GREENFIELD: Well, the president, the White House briefed reporters last night and it seems to be something along the lines that Senator John McCain and two Arizona House members have suggested, that if there are American employers, U.S. employers with jobs waiting, then these workers, so-called guest workers, no matter how they got here, can take these jobs.
The other point about it is, and this is the one where I think you're going to really see some political pressure, the president will apparently propose that these people begin, undocumented workers, they're called, or illegal immigrants, be allowed to apply for legal status. They might pay some penalty for having jumped the line, but they'd be allowed to move to a permanent legal status, the so-called green card, and ultimately citizenship and apparently there might be a proposal for tighter border security.
HEMMER: Well, politics is your game. I have to think that politics could be a bit tricky here.
GREENFIELD: Tricky is an understatement. I mean, on the one hand, you have massive opposition to the whole idea of illegal immigrants either being here, and especially getting any kind of reward. You'll remember, Bill, last year California Governor Gray Davis signed a law that let illegal immigrants get a driver's license. That helped lose him his job. And one of the first things Governor Schwarzenegger and the legislature in California did was to repeal that.
But we have also seen in California that when immigration is politicized, as the Republicans did 10 years ago, it helped create a backlash among Hispanic citizens and Hispanic voters, they're a rapidly growing force in American politics. In the last presidential election, 11 percent of the Florida vote -- you remember Florida -- 10 percent in Arizona, 14 percent in California, 32 percent in New Mexico was Hispanic. There's no doubt the political wing of the Bush White House is acutely aware of those numbers and they're also aware that it's an issue that fires yup a lot of conservatives who are already calling this notion effective amnesty and that September 11 has made it even more contentious.
So it's going to be, this is a tricky navigation for them.
HEMMER: Where do you think he finds the greatest opposition? Is it from within his own party?
GREENFIELD: Oh, without any question. The Democratic candidates, for all kinds of reasons, you know, ideological and political, have always been more sympathetic to undocumented workers, by and large. It's the -- and within the Republican ranks, there's a big split on the whole issue of immigration.
So, yes, his opposition is going to come from within his own party on this one.
HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
HEMMER: More e-mails on this with Jack later this hour.
Also, a bit later today live coverage here on CNN. Get it right about 2:45 Eastern time, 11:45 out on the West Coast, that proposal will become public then.
Thanks.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
