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American Morning
Why Did Pyongyang Allow Inspectors in Now?
Aired January 12, 2004 - 08:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Today in Seoul, South Korea, officials there due to get a report from a U.S. group just visiting a North Korean nuclear site. The unofficial U.S. group toured the Yongbyon nuclear complex. It's the first time outsiders have been allowed into the plant since U.N. inspectors were kicked out about a year ago.
What, then, did they see? And why did Pyongyang allow them in now?
Wendy Sherman of the Albright Group, a former presidential adviser on North Korea, back with us here on AMERICAN MORNING.
Nice to see you and good morning.
WENDY SHERMAN, ALBRIGHT GROUP: Good morning.
HEMMER: The one question that consistently comes up in this discussion, why and what does the North want out of a visit like this? How do you answer that?
SHERMAN: I think North Korea thought that if they allowed this private delegation in, they'd be saying we're open, we're going to show you what we have, we're ready to negotiate and the only person holding this up is President George W. Bush, so let's negotiate. I think they were also saying we truly do have nuclear capability, you ought to deal with us.
So it was a P.R. ploy. It was to put pressure on. But the delegation hopes that it will help improve the environment for the six party talks.
HEMMER: You know, when I hear about this, my thoughts drift back to Moammar Gadhafi and Libya, with him apparently, allegedly, we could say here, coming clean.
Is there a parallel that one sees in this?
SHERMAN: I think what North Korea has learned is from Iraq, that if you don't have nuclear weapons, the United States is going to invade, from Libya, and, in fact, from Pakistan, they've learned that if you have nuclear weapons, you can get the United States to negotiate and you can get something out of the deal.
So they may not have learned the lessons that the Bush administration hopes they did.
HEMMER: Yes. The "Washington Post" reporting this morning that they were shown recently processed plutonium there at that Yongbyon complex.
If that's a fact and if they saw that, what does that mean?
SHERMAN: It means that they are much closer to having more than the one or two nuclear weapons that the intelligence community believes they have, because that reprocessed, spent fuel is turned into plutonium and plutonium is the material that you need for nuclear bombs. In a matter of months, they could have six to 10, or even more bombs, over time.
So it is a very dangerous, very serious situation and I hope, as Secretary Powell indicated, those talks are going to get back under way soon, that Assistant Secretary James Kelly, who's our envoy, will go with real flexibility and real negotiating room to get down to business.
HEMMER: You know, one thing I'm wondering about, though, you see it as one visit to one side and I'm wondering how much this inspection team would be able to confirm with their own eyes on the ground. If it's true that 8,000 fuel rods have been reprocessed over the past year, if it's true that that amount could make between six to a dozen nuclear weapons, could a group like this on the ground at one time be able to verify that?
SHERMAN: They probably couldn't get all of the information, but Siegfried Hecker, who was head of Los Alamos, really understands nuclear weaponry and a reactor plant, probably got some indicators. I'm sure they weren't shown a nuclear bomb and they may have just as many questions as they have answers, but they'll certainly have more information than we've had today.
HEMMER: A final question here. How much weight does the White House give this visit and this group?
SHERMAN: Well, I'm sure they weren't exactly excited about this group going because virtually any administration wants to stay in control. But these are very seasoned, very professional folks who went, including some staffers from Capitol Hill; Jack Pritchard, a former member of the administration; and John Lewis, a Stanford professor who's been very involved with North Korea.
So they'll be very serious about this and they'll be very careful and share that information with U.S. officials.
HEMMER: Wendy Sherman, thanks.
Again, the meetings take place today in Seoul, South Korea. We all await word there.
Many thanks.
Good to talk to you again here.
SHERMAN: Good to talk to you, too, Bill.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 12, 2004 - 08:15 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Today in Seoul, South Korea, officials there due to get a report from a U.S. group just visiting a North Korean nuclear site. The unofficial U.S. group toured the Yongbyon nuclear complex. It's the first time outsiders have been allowed into the plant since U.N. inspectors were kicked out about a year ago.
What, then, did they see? And why did Pyongyang allow them in now?
Wendy Sherman of the Albright Group, a former presidential adviser on North Korea, back with us here on AMERICAN MORNING.
Nice to see you and good morning.
WENDY SHERMAN, ALBRIGHT GROUP: Good morning.
HEMMER: The one question that consistently comes up in this discussion, why and what does the North want out of a visit like this? How do you answer that?
SHERMAN: I think North Korea thought that if they allowed this private delegation in, they'd be saying we're open, we're going to show you what we have, we're ready to negotiate and the only person holding this up is President George W. Bush, so let's negotiate. I think they were also saying we truly do have nuclear capability, you ought to deal with us.
So it was a P.R. ploy. It was to put pressure on. But the delegation hopes that it will help improve the environment for the six party talks.
HEMMER: You know, when I hear about this, my thoughts drift back to Moammar Gadhafi and Libya, with him apparently, allegedly, we could say here, coming clean.
Is there a parallel that one sees in this?
SHERMAN: I think what North Korea has learned is from Iraq, that if you don't have nuclear weapons, the United States is going to invade, from Libya, and, in fact, from Pakistan, they've learned that if you have nuclear weapons, you can get the United States to negotiate and you can get something out of the deal.
So they may not have learned the lessons that the Bush administration hopes they did.
HEMMER: Yes. The "Washington Post" reporting this morning that they were shown recently processed plutonium there at that Yongbyon complex.
If that's a fact and if they saw that, what does that mean?
SHERMAN: It means that they are much closer to having more than the one or two nuclear weapons that the intelligence community believes they have, because that reprocessed, spent fuel is turned into plutonium and plutonium is the material that you need for nuclear bombs. In a matter of months, they could have six to 10, or even more bombs, over time.
So it is a very dangerous, very serious situation and I hope, as Secretary Powell indicated, those talks are going to get back under way soon, that Assistant Secretary James Kelly, who's our envoy, will go with real flexibility and real negotiating room to get down to business.
HEMMER: You know, one thing I'm wondering about, though, you see it as one visit to one side and I'm wondering how much this inspection team would be able to confirm with their own eyes on the ground. If it's true that 8,000 fuel rods have been reprocessed over the past year, if it's true that that amount could make between six to a dozen nuclear weapons, could a group like this on the ground at one time be able to verify that?
SHERMAN: They probably couldn't get all of the information, but Siegfried Hecker, who was head of Los Alamos, really understands nuclear weaponry and a reactor plant, probably got some indicators. I'm sure they weren't shown a nuclear bomb and they may have just as many questions as they have answers, but they'll certainly have more information than we've had today.
HEMMER: A final question here. How much weight does the White House give this visit and this group?
SHERMAN: Well, I'm sure they weren't exactly excited about this group going because virtually any administration wants to stay in control. But these are very seasoned, very professional folks who went, including some staffers from Capitol Hill; Jack Pritchard, a former member of the administration; and John Lewis, a Stanford professor who's been very involved with North Korea.
So they'll be very serious about this and they'll be very careful and share that information with U.S. officials.
HEMMER: Wendy Sherman, thanks.
Again, the meetings take place today in Seoul, South Korea. We all await word there.
Many thanks.
Good to talk to you again here.
SHERMAN: Good to talk to you, too, Bill.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
