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American Morning

Bush Has Double Digit Leads Over Two Top Democratic Candidates

Aired January 13, 2004 - 08:08   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Now, President Bush has double digit leads over the two top Democratic presidential candidates. That's according to our latest polling, CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup. Fifty-nine percent surveyed approve of how the president is doing his job compared to 38 percent who disapprove.
Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, back with us here in D.C.

Nice to see you, Bill, and good morning.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: Ten months away, tough to stack up right now. The approval rating tells you what, though, hovering right around 60 percent?

SCHNEIDER: It tells you that this election will be a referendum on George Bush and right now the referendum would be pretty positive. Close to 60 percent means he looks good for reelection, not a sure thing. Those figures can change very, very quickly. Jimmy Carter, going into his reelection year in 1980, when there was a hostage crisis, the country was very tense, he had nearly a 59 percent approval rating and look what happened to him.

But in the end, it is a referendum on George Bush and for the moment looking good.

HEMMER: Yes. Let's go to the next screen now. Thirty-nine percent in that same survey say they will definitely support the president. Thirty-three percent say they will definitely go against him. Yet 28 percent are waiting to see whom the Democrats nominate.

It tells you what, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: It tells me that the country is still divided. While Bush has a slight edge, more people say they would definitely vote for him than against him, 39 percent ain't a majority. It's not even close to a majority. There are still large numbers of voters out there who say we're going to wait and see what the Democrats do.

Now, a lot of Democrats that I know are worried that if they nominate Howard Dean, he's an unelectable candidate, and they ask all the time can he be elected?

You know, I've seen too many unelectable candidates in my time get elected, like Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. They all got elected because they faced incumbents who were, for one reason or another, discredited, because of Watergate or the economy or the hostage crisis.

At the moment, George Bush is not a discredited president. But who knows six or eight months from now?

HEMMER: At the same time, though, if you stack the president up against Clark or Dean, Kerry or Gephardt, he wins at this point by 14 or 15 points. That does not portend good news, at least at the moment -- here we are in mid-January -- for the Democrats.

Head to head contest right now, who the Democrats prefer. This is what we found out in our survey. Twenty-six percent say Governor Dean; 20 percent say the retired General Wesley Clark.

Are we starting to see already a two man race in '04?

SCHNEIDER: Well, we have to wait until we see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire. You know, the national polls reflect what's happening on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire. So if Gephardt were to win Iowa, suddenly he would jump up from those single digits in the polls. If Wesley Clark were to do spectacularly well in New Hampshire, coming close to or even beating Howard Dean, then he'd surge in the polls.

Right now, Dean and Clark are the most attractive to a national audience for one simple reason -- what do Dean and Clark have in common? They're both Washington outsiders. They're new faces and Democrats around the country are kind of intrigued by that.

HEMMER: Quickly, a couple of things I thought were pretty interesting. One third in that polling see Howard Dean as a liberal. Only one in eight see Clark that way. But less than half of the country right now is paying attention to this election. What they are paying to, though, apparently, look at the numbers on Britney Spears. Her unapproval rating has gone sky high, 66 percent in unfavorable there. Martha Stewart checks in at 55 percent. Pete Rose a tick under 50 percent, by the way.

I know you love polls.

Take a shot at that one, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: Well, what does it tell you? The columnist Ellen Goodman raised an interesting question the other day when she said who is a bigger threat to heterosexual marriage, Britney Spears or gay marriage? Well, in this poll, we found 66 percent have an unfavorable view of the singer Britney Spears, who was married for just over two days, presumably because they thought she had made a mockery of the institution of marriage. Fifty-three percent had a negative view, that is, disapproved of gay marriage.

So that columnist, Ellen Goodman, might have been correct that people have a more negative view of Britney Spears because she may be the bigger threat to the institution of marriage than homosexuals.

HEMMER: Thank you, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: How about that?

HEMMER: Yes.

See you in Iowa.

Bill Schneider in D.C.

Bye-bye.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Candidates>


Aired January 13, 2004 - 08:08   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Now, President Bush has double digit leads over the two top Democratic presidential candidates. That's according to our latest polling, CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup. Fifty-nine percent surveyed approve of how the president is doing his job compared to 38 percent who disapprove.
Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, back with us here in D.C.

Nice to see you, Bill, and good morning.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: Ten months away, tough to stack up right now. The approval rating tells you what, though, hovering right around 60 percent?

SCHNEIDER: It tells you that this election will be a referendum on George Bush and right now the referendum would be pretty positive. Close to 60 percent means he looks good for reelection, not a sure thing. Those figures can change very, very quickly. Jimmy Carter, going into his reelection year in 1980, when there was a hostage crisis, the country was very tense, he had nearly a 59 percent approval rating and look what happened to him.

But in the end, it is a referendum on George Bush and for the moment looking good.

HEMMER: Yes. Let's go to the next screen now. Thirty-nine percent in that same survey say they will definitely support the president. Thirty-three percent say they will definitely go against him. Yet 28 percent are waiting to see whom the Democrats nominate.

It tells you what, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: It tells me that the country is still divided. While Bush has a slight edge, more people say they would definitely vote for him than against him, 39 percent ain't a majority. It's not even close to a majority. There are still large numbers of voters out there who say we're going to wait and see what the Democrats do.

Now, a lot of Democrats that I know are worried that if they nominate Howard Dean, he's an unelectable candidate, and they ask all the time can he be elected?

You know, I've seen too many unelectable candidates in my time get elected, like Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. They all got elected because they faced incumbents who were, for one reason or another, discredited, because of Watergate or the economy or the hostage crisis.

At the moment, George Bush is not a discredited president. But who knows six or eight months from now?

HEMMER: At the same time, though, if you stack the president up against Clark or Dean, Kerry or Gephardt, he wins at this point by 14 or 15 points. That does not portend good news, at least at the moment -- here we are in mid-January -- for the Democrats.

Head to head contest right now, who the Democrats prefer. This is what we found out in our survey. Twenty-six percent say Governor Dean; 20 percent say the retired General Wesley Clark.

Are we starting to see already a two man race in '04?

SCHNEIDER: Well, we have to wait until we see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire. You know, the national polls reflect what's happening on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire. So if Gephardt were to win Iowa, suddenly he would jump up from those single digits in the polls. If Wesley Clark were to do spectacularly well in New Hampshire, coming close to or even beating Howard Dean, then he'd surge in the polls.

Right now, Dean and Clark are the most attractive to a national audience for one simple reason -- what do Dean and Clark have in common? They're both Washington outsiders. They're new faces and Democrats around the country are kind of intrigued by that.

HEMMER: Quickly, a couple of things I thought were pretty interesting. One third in that polling see Howard Dean as a liberal. Only one in eight see Clark that way. But less than half of the country right now is paying attention to this election. What they are paying to, though, apparently, look at the numbers on Britney Spears. Her unapproval rating has gone sky high, 66 percent in unfavorable there. Martha Stewart checks in at 55 percent. Pete Rose a tick under 50 percent, by the way.

I know you love polls.

Take a shot at that one, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: Well, what does it tell you? The columnist Ellen Goodman raised an interesting question the other day when she said who is a bigger threat to heterosexual marriage, Britney Spears or gay marriage? Well, in this poll, we found 66 percent have an unfavorable view of the singer Britney Spears, who was married for just over two days, presumably because they thought she had made a mockery of the institution of marriage. Fifty-three percent had a negative view, that is, disapproved of gay marriage.

So that columnist, Ellen Goodman, might have been correct that people have a more negative view of Britney Spears because she may be the bigger threat to the institution of marriage than homosexuals.

HEMMER: Thank you, Bill.

SCHNEIDER: How about that?

HEMMER: Yes.

See you in Iowa.

Bill Schneider in D.C.

Bye-bye.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Candidates>