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American Morning
White Hot Political Race in Iowa
Aired January 15, 2004 - 07:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to that white hot political race in Iowa, and it is heating up, too, in the tone, you can tell, from this point of view, here in New York City. It's getting hot there. Four days now before the caucus on Monday. A new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released just 30 minutes ago showing a virtual three way dead heat between John Kerry, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt.
Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, back with us in Des Moines this morning -- Ron, nice to talk to you again here.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: We have been cautioned and warned about these polls, that they traditionally are not very reliable in Iowa because of the system.
But what do you make of what we're hearing right now regarding the tone and the competitive nature of this caucus so far?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Bill, first of all, I never thought I'd say this in January, but you need to come out to Iowa to get warm. It's practically balmy out here.
HEMMER: I'll see if I will.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, the race is heating up. Look, this is a tracking poll and a tracking poll is a kind of poll that's particularly volatile. It's a three day, a three night poll, usually. It has a small sample. If you get a weird result one night, it tends to skew the result.
But having said that, I think all of the campaigns in their own private polling basically see the same trend as the Zogby poll is showing of the race converging with the big three, and John Edwards only a step behind.
Now, it is difficult to poll a caucus because it's an organizational challenge more than a kind of a conventional primary that depends on mass voter sentiment. Here you really have to have the strong organization to get your voters to the polls.
But I do think the broad trend that this poll is identifying, which is that the three top contenders are sort of moving step to step closer and closer, with Edwards really only a breadth behind, is what all of the campaigns largely see here.
HEMMER: I want to get back to the tone now. Listen to this ad running in favor of Howard Dean, talking about his anti-war message.
Listen and we'll talk about it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM DEAN CAMPAIGN COMMERCIAL)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Where did the Washington Democrats stand on the war? Dick Gephardt wrote the resolution to authorize war. John Kerry and John Edwards both voted for the war. Then Dick Gephardt voted to spend another $87 billion on Iraq. Howard Dean has a different view.
DR. HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I opposed the war in Iraq and I'm against spending another $87 billion there. I'm Howard Dean and I approve this message because our party and our country need new leadership.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: The word is that TV ads are all over the place, just about 24 hours a day, on the television set there throughout the State of Iowa.
Is this Dean going back to his original old message?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, absolutely, back to basics. Look, 10 days ago, everyone would agree Howard Dean was ahead here. He has come back to the pack. Everyone agrees on that. What he's trying to do in that ad is two things. He's going back to the anti-war message that he began with and that helped mobilize his base to begin with. But he's also trying to re-identify himself as an outsider. You know, that message has sort of been muddled here. He's been campaigning with Washington politicians on the stage almost every day. There's another one, Carol Moseley Braun, who's going to be endorsing him today, Al Gore, Bill Bradley, Tom Harkin.
It's kind of been difficult for him to get out the idea that he is the outsider railing against the establishment when he's got the establishment arrayed around him. And I think he's trying to return to core principles or original principles on both fronts, the war and the outsider message.
HEMMER: Talk about railing, Dick Gephardt yesterday, strong words against Howard Dean, saying he has manufactured anger and false conviction. Based on history, have you seen a race like this in Iowa ever?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think this has been, you know, this is probably the most competitive candidates that I've seen, to have four candidates at the same time who are competitive. The Gephardt argument is interesting, Bill, because although it isn't in substance, it is, really, in form a response to the Dean ad. I mean what Dean is basically arguing in that ad is that you can't trust John Kerry, John Edwards and Dick Gephardt to stand up for Democratic values. They wouldn't stand up to President Bush on the most emotional issue and probably the biggest issue of the past year. What Gephardt is saying is when you look at things like guns and Medicare and trade, you can't trust Dean to stand up for Democratic interests.
So they are really sort of talking, using different issues but trying to make the same underlying argument about each other.
HEMMER: See you this weekend, Ron.
Thanks.
Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times"/CNN political analyst there in Des Moines, Iowa.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 15, 2004 - 07:34 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to that white hot political race in Iowa, and it is heating up, too, in the tone, you can tell, from this point of view, here in New York City. It's getting hot there. Four days now before the caucus on Monday. A new Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released just 30 minutes ago showing a virtual three way dead heat between John Kerry, Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt.
Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, back with us in Des Moines this morning -- Ron, nice to talk to you again here.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: We have been cautioned and warned about these polls, that they traditionally are not very reliable in Iowa because of the system.
But what do you make of what we're hearing right now regarding the tone and the competitive nature of this caucus so far?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, Bill, first of all, I never thought I'd say this in January, but you need to come out to Iowa to get warm. It's practically balmy out here.
HEMMER: I'll see if I will.
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, the race is heating up. Look, this is a tracking poll and a tracking poll is a kind of poll that's particularly volatile. It's a three day, a three night poll, usually. It has a small sample. If you get a weird result one night, it tends to skew the result.
But having said that, I think all of the campaigns in their own private polling basically see the same trend as the Zogby poll is showing of the race converging with the big three, and John Edwards only a step behind.
Now, it is difficult to poll a caucus because it's an organizational challenge more than a kind of a conventional primary that depends on mass voter sentiment. Here you really have to have the strong organization to get your voters to the polls.
But I do think the broad trend that this poll is identifying, which is that the three top contenders are sort of moving step to step closer and closer, with Edwards really only a breadth behind, is what all of the campaigns largely see here.
HEMMER: I want to get back to the tone now. Listen to this ad running in favor of Howard Dean, talking about his anti-war message.
Listen and we'll talk about it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP FROM DEAN CAMPAIGN COMMERCIAL)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Where did the Washington Democrats stand on the war? Dick Gephardt wrote the resolution to authorize war. John Kerry and John Edwards both voted for the war. Then Dick Gephardt voted to spend another $87 billion on Iraq. Howard Dean has a different view.
DR. HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I opposed the war in Iraq and I'm against spending another $87 billion there. I'm Howard Dean and I approve this message because our party and our country need new leadership.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HEMMER: The word is that TV ads are all over the place, just about 24 hours a day, on the television set there throughout the State of Iowa.
Is this Dean going back to his original old message?
BROWNSTEIN: Yes, absolutely, back to basics. Look, 10 days ago, everyone would agree Howard Dean was ahead here. He has come back to the pack. Everyone agrees on that. What he's trying to do in that ad is two things. He's going back to the anti-war message that he began with and that helped mobilize his base to begin with. But he's also trying to re-identify himself as an outsider. You know, that message has sort of been muddled here. He's been campaigning with Washington politicians on the stage almost every day. There's another one, Carol Moseley Braun, who's going to be endorsing him today, Al Gore, Bill Bradley, Tom Harkin.
It's kind of been difficult for him to get out the idea that he is the outsider railing against the establishment when he's got the establishment arrayed around him. And I think he's trying to return to core principles or original principles on both fronts, the war and the outsider message.
HEMMER: Talk about railing, Dick Gephardt yesterday, strong words against Howard Dean, saying he has manufactured anger and false conviction. Based on history, have you seen a race like this in Iowa ever?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think this has been, you know, this is probably the most competitive candidates that I've seen, to have four candidates at the same time who are competitive. The Gephardt argument is interesting, Bill, because although it isn't in substance, it is, really, in form a response to the Dean ad. I mean what Dean is basically arguing in that ad is that you can't trust John Kerry, John Edwards and Dick Gephardt to stand up for Democratic values. They wouldn't stand up to President Bush on the most emotional issue and probably the biggest issue of the past year. What Gephardt is saying is when you look at things like guns and Medicare and trade, you can't trust Dean to stand up for Democratic interests.
So they are really sort of talking, using different issues but trying to make the same underlying argument about each other.
HEMMER: See you this weekend, Ron.
Thanks.
Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times"/CNN political analyst there in Des Moines, Iowa.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
