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American Morning

Race in Iowa Tight

Aired January 15, 2004 - 08:05   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Presidential politics now. Polling suggests the race in Iowa is as tight as it possibly could be only four days before the caucuses. John Kerry now leads both Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt by a very slim margin, according to the latest tracking poll numbers out of that state. Also, the only woman in the race, Carol Moseley Braun, expected to drop out today and also scheduled to endorse Howard Dean later this afternoon.
National correspondent Bob Franken outside the election bus this morning.

And we should say many times in the past the polls are not as accurate as we'd like because it's a very difficult system to figure out.

Cedar Rapids -- good morning, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

It is a fact that one consistency polls public and private have is that in the last day or so there has been what apparently is some upward movement on the part of John Kerry. Of course, for a while he had been floundering. But if the polls are accurate, then that means that he has begun to make his move in Iowa, which, of course, could be substantial help for his campaign and the prospects that had begun to look like they were dimming just a little bit.

But, the two problems with the polls, according to many experts, is, A, they are still volatile, and B, it's really hard to determine what the sample would be because there are so many variables involved in this caucus -- turnout. The turnout, among other things, is going to be something that we won't really know about until Monday when the caucuses are really held.

By the way, there are 1,933 of them across Iowa. It's a really unusual system.

As for Carol Moseley Braun, she didn't really make much of an impact here. She was showing in the low single digits. But it's just one less candidate and, of course, she's expected this afternoon to throw her support to Howard Dean. There have been questions raised about Howard Dean's relationship with minorities when he was governor in Vermont, so it can't hurt.

In any case, she is expected to do so this afternoon. It became clear, according to sources, that she was going to do so to Howard Dean on Sunday night, when they began conversations. Those conversations will now play out with her endorsement. No real idea right now what her role will be in the future in any Howard Dean campaign -- Bill.

HEMMER: Bob, quickly here, one thing we're picking up back here in New York is the tone of this race.

What are your thoughts right now where things are getting, in some cases, downright nasty at this point?

FRANKEN: Well, it's almost, when you have a race like this, where the stakes are so high, and they are very high, and where things clearly are tightening up, it becomes a slug fest, and that's exactly what's happening. And, really, in some cases, people are assuming roles that you don't normally associate with them. I'm thinking particularly of Congressman Dick Gephardt, who is not known as somebody who slugs it out, particularly in public.

But yesterday he really went on the attack against Howard Dean. Dean, of course, has been somebody who's been accused of being the attack kind himself. It looks like people are going to take off the gloves a little bit and really fight this one to the finish, the finish, of course, being Monday.

HEMMER: That's right.

Bob, thanks.

Bob Franken there in Iowa.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 15, 2004 - 08:05   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Presidential politics now. Polling suggests the race in Iowa is as tight as it possibly could be only four days before the caucuses. John Kerry now leads both Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt by a very slim margin, according to the latest tracking poll numbers out of that state. Also, the only woman in the race, Carol Moseley Braun, expected to drop out today and also scheduled to endorse Howard Dean later this afternoon.
National correspondent Bob Franken outside the election bus this morning.

And we should say many times in the past the polls are not as accurate as we'd like because it's a very difficult system to figure out.

Cedar Rapids -- good morning, Bob.

BOB FRANKEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

It is a fact that one consistency polls public and private have is that in the last day or so there has been what apparently is some upward movement on the part of John Kerry. Of course, for a while he had been floundering. But if the polls are accurate, then that means that he has begun to make his move in Iowa, which, of course, could be substantial help for his campaign and the prospects that had begun to look like they were dimming just a little bit.

But, the two problems with the polls, according to many experts, is, A, they are still volatile, and B, it's really hard to determine what the sample would be because there are so many variables involved in this caucus -- turnout. The turnout, among other things, is going to be something that we won't really know about until Monday when the caucuses are really held.

By the way, there are 1,933 of them across Iowa. It's a really unusual system.

As for Carol Moseley Braun, she didn't really make much of an impact here. She was showing in the low single digits. But it's just one less candidate and, of course, she's expected this afternoon to throw her support to Howard Dean. There have been questions raised about Howard Dean's relationship with minorities when he was governor in Vermont, so it can't hurt.

In any case, she is expected to do so this afternoon. It became clear, according to sources, that she was going to do so to Howard Dean on Sunday night, when they began conversations. Those conversations will now play out with her endorsement. No real idea right now what her role will be in the future in any Howard Dean campaign -- Bill.

HEMMER: Bob, quickly here, one thing we're picking up back here in New York is the tone of this race.

What are your thoughts right now where things are getting, in some cases, downright nasty at this point?

FRANKEN: Well, it's almost, when you have a race like this, where the stakes are so high, and they are very high, and where things clearly are tightening up, it becomes a slug fest, and that's exactly what's happening. And, really, in some cases, people are assuming roles that you don't normally associate with them. I'm thinking particularly of Congressman Dick Gephardt, who is not known as somebody who slugs it out, particularly in public.

But yesterday he really went on the attack against Howard Dean. Dean, of course, has been somebody who's been accused of being the attack kind himself. It looks like people are going to take off the gloves a little bit and really fight this one to the finish, the finish, of course, being Monday.

HEMMER: That's right.

Bob, thanks.

Bob Franken there in Iowa.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com