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American Morning

Down to the Wire in New Hampshire

Aired January 22, 2004 - 09:32   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get back to politics now. For the presidential Democratic candidates it is a day for sharpening messages ahead of this evening's debate this evening in Manchester, New Hampshire.
The two-hour showdown is the only time that the hopefuls will go head-to-head (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Tuesday's primary. The latest opinion polls says that John Kerry is now the front runner.

Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is in Manchester with more on all this. Hi, Jeff. Good morning to you.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Good morning.

O'BRIEN: Let's start with the polls and there are so many now. Let's first look at the numbers actually for "The Boston Herald" poll. But the other polls are similar. They sort of follow suit.

Kerry leading 31 percent, Dean with 21 percent, Clark 16 percent, Edwards with 11 percent, Lieberman just four percent. If you look at "The Boston Globe" poll also this new Zogby poll, very similar layout there. Do you that think these polls are showing that Kerry is gaining strength or Dean has imploded or little bit of both?

GREENFIELD: Well I'm inclined to respond to these polls with the immortal Homer Simpson analysis, "duh" as opposed to "d'oh."

He came -- Kerry was moving strongly a week before the Iowa caucuses. His advertising is very sharp. And for the first type since Gary Hart in 1984 I really do think we are seeing something of an Iowa bounce. Remarkable that a New Englander had to go to the Midwest to redefine himself away from the patrician establishment label more toward the war hero, friend of the common person. And that so far is working.

It is another reason why you wonder what the rivals are going to do in this debate tonight. Do you go after Kerry in some way, especially since negativity is now seen as one step above child molestation in terms of a no-no?

O'BRIEN: So does that mean though that Kerry will be the guy who everyone's going to attack? Let's say they're not as negative as they have been in the past on the front runner? Will he still be the person who's in everyone's sights?

GREENFIELD: Yes. And I think we already know, for instance, what General Clark and Senator Edwards' themes are. They either both saying this is a guy who can't win in the South. And Edwards said it in so many words in South Carolina. Do you want to run, he was saying to Southerners, with me on the ticket or Howard Dean or John Kerry?

We know the Bush administration is kind of looking at John Kerry as a Michael Dukakis remix. And I think some of his rivals will, too. Clark, in fact, has been saying, Look, I'm the best of Edwards and Kerry. I have national experience, I'm a leader. I'm also a Southerner with an optimistic message.

The real kind of one thing you've got to wonder about tonight, Soledad, is what does Howard Dean do?

O'BRIEN: Exactly. What does he do to recover from that concession speech which was just oh, so weird. Earlier this morning I was talking to Jay Carson, he the spokesman, as you well know, for the Dean campaign. And I asked him what he thought of Dean's -- not just the words but what he did, the jacket off. Let's listen to what he said first before I ask you a question.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAY CARSON, NATL. SPOKESMAN, DEAN CAMPAIGN: What Governor Dean was doing, he had a room full of 3,500 people who had come to Iowa to work hard for him, to volunteer for him. He wanted to go out there and show his appreciation for the hard work that that had done. He did that. He was energizing them. We're not going to make any apologies for it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: That's kind of their explanation. You know, he was just enthusiastic for his team. What do you make of that?

GREENFIELD: Not much. I mean, it's true what he said. The problem is, when a camera is pointed at somebody, we don't see the context. What we saw and what many Americans saw in their first real look at this guy under fire -- you know, every front runner for 24 years has taken an early punch and the question, is what does he do? That has moved into the pantheon of tapes. It is a probably now as familiar as "I did not have sex with that woman," what's her name.

I guess that Jay is right. You know, you have three options. You can make a joke out of it. You know, you can get up tonight and say, let me finish listing the names of the states I'm going to go into. Probably not a good idea. You could ignore it, which is I guess what they're going to do. You could apologize, which is tricky.

Or I guess what you could do is fold it into what is clearly is the new Dean strategy. I saw a new ad that Dean aired on our network and I'm sure many others. He's not in short sleeves, he's in a coat and tie. He's talking about his experience balancing budget, he's talking with other people, he's not bashing the establishment of the Democratic Party.

And, Soledad, the real shocker, for the first time I can remember, you see the word "governor" under -- before his name. Not doctor, governor. So the very kind of thing they were pushing away, they're saying, Look, I'm an experienced executive who can get the job done.

That's a very interesting, rather sharp turn after the themes that have got him all that money and attention.

O'BRIEN: I'll say.

OK, let's take a moment to ask a quick question about John Edwards and this very controversial memo sort strategizing the mean things you can do to the people running against you. For a guy who's been running on a platform of "I'm going to be the nice guy in this entire race," do you think this hurts him?

He says he knows nothing about it. Do you think that that's a fair thing? You know, I take responsibility but I don't know anything about it. Is that a fair answer?

GREENFIELD: You know, if you looked at everything the candidates and senators signed, I can at least give it a possibility. But I got to tell you, in looking at the memo, I think we're getting awfully -- I'll use this word, Soledad -- prissy.

The idea that you are saying about John Kerry, "a northeastern liberal can't win." First of all Edwards is saying it out loud. And it's not as though they're slandering these opponents with vicious personal attacks, they're talking about potential political weaknesses. I thought that's what a campaign was supposed to do.

But I guess we're in this age when the word "negative" is now implied not to a smear or to a personal attack, the kind of thing that some people hit McCain on. You know, you've adopted children of different colors, you are a drug addict. Really awful, horrible stuff that happened to McCain in South Carolina.

What they're saying here is these other guys are weaker politically. I mean, when did we get so fussy about this that this is considered some terrible norm? I guess the problem is that Edwards was so consistently open and obvious about saying I don't want to be negative, then he hinted (UNINTELLIGIBLE) I can't believe this is his problem.

His problem, to get some traction here in New Hampshire, you're too young to remember the roller derby, Soledad. But in the roller derbies when all the players jammed up, they wouldn't let the other guy get ahead of him. That's almost Edwards' problem. How does he take advantage of what happened in Iowa? Maybe the answer is there can only be one Iowa bounce and so far it's going to Kerry.

O'BRIEN: Maybe that's it. All right, Jeff Greenfield. Thanks as always, Jeff.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 22, 2004 - 09:32   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's get back to politics now. For the presidential Democratic candidates it is a day for sharpening messages ahead of this evening's debate this evening in Manchester, New Hampshire.
The two-hour showdown is the only time that the hopefuls will go head-to-head (UNINTELLIGIBLE) Tuesday's primary. The latest opinion polls says that John Kerry is now the front runner.

Senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is in Manchester with more on all this. Hi, Jeff. Good morning to you.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Good morning.

O'BRIEN: Let's start with the polls and there are so many now. Let's first look at the numbers actually for "The Boston Herald" poll. But the other polls are similar. They sort of follow suit.

Kerry leading 31 percent, Dean with 21 percent, Clark 16 percent, Edwards with 11 percent, Lieberman just four percent. If you look at "The Boston Globe" poll also this new Zogby poll, very similar layout there. Do you that think these polls are showing that Kerry is gaining strength or Dean has imploded or little bit of both?

GREENFIELD: Well I'm inclined to respond to these polls with the immortal Homer Simpson analysis, "duh" as opposed to "d'oh."

He came -- Kerry was moving strongly a week before the Iowa caucuses. His advertising is very sharp. And for the first type since Gary Hart in 1984 I really do think we are seeing something of an Iowa bounce. Remarkable that a New Englander had to go to the Midwest to redefine himself away from the patrician establishment label more toward the war hero, friend of the common person. And that so far is working.

It is another reason why you wonder what the rivals are going to do in this debate tonight. Do you go after Kerry in some way, especially since negativity is now seen as one step above child molestation in terms of a no-no?

O'BRIEN: So does that mean though that Kerry will be the guy who everyone's going to attack? Let's say they're not as negative as they have been in the past on the front runner? Will he still be the person who's in everyone's sights?

GREENFIELD: Yes. And I think we already know, for instance, what General Clark and Senator Edwards' themes are. They either both saying this is a guy who can't win in the South. And Edwards said it in so many words in South Carolina. Do you want to run, he was saying to Southerners, with me on the ticket or Howard Dean or John Kerry?

We know the Bush administration is kind of looking at John Kerry as a Michael Dukakis remix. And I think some of his rivals will, too. Clark, in fact, has been saying, Look, I'm the best of Edwards and Kerry. I have national experience, I'm a leader. I'm also a Southerner with an optimistic message.

The real kind of one thing you've got to wonder about tonight, Soledad, is what does Howard Dean do?

O'BRIEN: Exactly. What does he do to recover from that concession speech which was just oh, so weird. Earlier this morning I was talking to Jay Carson, he the spokesman, as you well know, for the Dean campaign. And I asked him what he thought of Dean's -- not just the words but what he did, the jacket off. Let's listen to what he said first before I ask you a question.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAY CARSON, NATL. SPOKESMAN, DEAN CAMPAIGN: What Governor Dean was doing, he had a room full of 3,500 people who had come to Iowa to work hard for him, to volunteer for him. He wanted to go out there and show his appreciation for the hard work that that had done. He did that. He was energizing them. We're not going to make any apologies for it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: That's kind of their explanation. You know, he was just enthusiastic for his team. What do you make of that?

GREENFIELD: Not much. I mean, it's true what he said. The problem is, when a camera is pointed at somebody, we don't see the context. What we saw and what many Americans saw in their first real look at this guy under fire -- you know, every front runner for 24 years has taken an early punch and the question, is what does he do? That has moved into the pantheon of tapes. It is a probably now as familiar as "I did not have sex with that woman," what's her name.

I guess that Jay is right. You know, you have three options. You can make a joke out of it. You know, you can get up tonight and say, let me finish listing the names of the states I'm going to go into. Probably not a good idea. You could ignore it, which is I guess what they're going to do. You could apologize, which is tricky.

Or I guess what you could do is fold it into what is clearly is the new Dean strategy. I saw a new ad that Dean aired on our network and I'm sure many others. He's not in short sleeves, he's in a coat and tie. He's talking about his experience balancing budget, he's talking with other people, he's not bashing the establishment of the Democratic Party.

And, Soledad, the real shocker, for the first time I can remember, you see the word "governor" under -- before his name. Not doctor, governor. So the very kind of thing they were pushing away, they're saying, Look, I'm an experienced executive who can get the job done.

That's a very interesting, rather sharp turn after the themes that have got him all that money and attention.

O'BRIEN: I'll say.

OK, let's take a moment to ask a quick question about John Edwards and this very controversial memo sort strategizing the mean things you can do to the people running against you. For a guy who's been running on a platform of "I'm going to be the nice guy in this entire race," do you think this hurts him?

He says he knows nothing about it. Do you think that that's a fair thing? You know, I take responsibility but I don't know anything about it. Is that a fair answer?

GREENFIELD: You know, if you looked at everything the candidates and senators signed, I can at least give it a possibility. But I got to tell you, in looking at the memo, I think we're getting awfully -- I'll use this word, Soledad -- prissy.

The idea that you are saying about John Kerry, "a northeastern liberal can't win." First of all Edwards is saying it out loud. And it's not as though they're slandering these opponents with vicious personal attacks, they're talking about potential political weaknesses. I thought that's what a campaign was supposed to do.

But I guess we're in this age when the word "negative" is now implied not to a smear or to a personal attack, the kind of thing that some people hit McCain on. You know, you've adopted children of different colors, you are a drug addict. Really awful, horrible stuff that happened to McCain in South Carolina.

What they're saying here is these other guys are weaker politically. I mean, when did we get so fussy about this that this is considered some terrible norm? I guess the problem is that Edwards was so consistently open and obvious about saying I don't want to be negative, then he hinted (UNINTELLIGIBLE) I can't believe this is his problem.

His problem, to get some traction here in New Hampshire, you're too young to remember the roller derby, Soledad. But in the roller derbies when all the players jammed up, they wouldn't let the other guy get ahead of him. That's almost Edwards' problem. How does he take advantage of what happened in Iowa? Maybe the answer is there can only be one Iowa bounce and so far it's going to Kerry.

O'BRIEN: Maybe that's it. All right, Jeff Greenfield. Thanks as always, Jeff.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com