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American Morning
Kerry's Rise in Polls, Dean's Fall; Debate This Evening
Aired January 22, 2004 - 09:09 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, up in New Hampshire.
Nice to see you inside today -- Bill.
But a great looking hat yesterday, nonetheless.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good to be inside.
HEMMER: Listen, I asked Donna Brazille this question about 35 minutes ago. If John Kerry finishes second on Tuesday, is that now a disappointment for him?
SCHNEIDER: It would be, because expectations for him have risen very fast. If Dean wins New Hampshire, he'll claim it's a glorious vindication and he's back in the game and he has the money to continue. If Kerry wins New Hampshire, then he faces another test. He's got to go south and prove that he is truly a national candidate. He has won Iowa. He will have won New Hampshire. But the South is a bigger test.
HEMMER: John Edwards is trailing far behind, number four right now. He's not moving in New Hampshire the same way Kerry has out of Iowa, despite both of them getting so much attention and a rather substantial bounce.
Why is that, do you believe?
SCHNEIDER: Well, they're both moving up -- yes, well, they're both moving up, but Kerry is really moving up. Kerry has been the front runner here, in the middle of the last year. He lost that status to Dean in the fall. Now he's regained it because of Dean's implosion. Dean is really hemorrhaging votes.
Edwards has been moving up a few points, but he's still, according to all the polls, running forth and isn't getting quite as much of a bounce. The story here is big bounce for Kerry, little bounce for Edwards.
HEMMER: How did New Hampshire see these two men? They're not, they're not strangers to them at all. Both come from neighboring states, Howard Dean in Vermont, John Kerry in Massachusetts. Has one before now enjoyed more popularity than the other?
SCHNEIDER: Well, at first it was Kerry, because New Hampshire knows more about Massachusetts -- a lot of them live close to the Massachusetts border -- than they did about Vermont. Then Iowa just reintroduced both of these guys to the neighboring state. They thought they knew Kerry. They thought they knew Dean. Then the race in Iowa gave them a new picture of both candidates.
What we are seeing is Dean's negative ratings, his unfavorability rising very fast because he lost Iowa, a very disappointing finish, and the sort of mad dog Dean performance at the end of the Iowa caucuses.
It also reintroduced John Kerry to his neighbors and this was not the John Kerry they thought they knew. He looks like a winner. He looks strong. He looks credible. And that's a whole new Kerry.
HEMMER: Yes, that, indeed, it is. Listen, later tonight with this debate, about two hours in length in New Hampshire. All the candidates will be there together. Get away from being an analyst for a second and be an advisor.
What would you advise Howard Dean to do? Does he come out and make fun of what happened last Monday night in Iowa? Does he try and look presidential? Your take on that?
SCHNEIDER: He has to look presidential. I'd advise him, number one, to keep his coat on. Number two, to tone down the rhetoric. He can be critical of his chat -- his competitors, but he's got to do so in a way that looks dignified, that looks presidential, because a lot of people look to that performance and said hey, this guy doesn't really look like a president. Tone it down a little bit. But he's trying to become the John McCain of this campaign, to say I'm the only one who is a real anti-establishment outsider. That's got to be his message, but it can't be a tone that sounds like Monday night.
HEMMER: Yes, you talked about history earlier, 1992, Bill Clinton skipped Iowa, came in second in New Hampshire, still got the nomination, so it could be anybody's ball game even at this point.
SCHNEIDER: Right.
HEMMER: Thank you, Bill.
Talk to you very soon in New Hampshire.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
HEMMER: Appreciate it.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired January 22, 2004 - 09:09 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, up in New Hampshire.
Nice to see you inside today -- Bill.
But a great looking hat yesterday, nonetheless.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good to be inside.
HEMMER: Listen, I asked Donna Brazille this question about 35 minutes ago. If John Kerry finishes second on Tuesday, is that now a disappointment for him?
SCHNEIDER: It would be, because expectations for him have risen very fast. If Dean wins New Hampshire, he'll claim it's a glorious vindication and he's back in the game and he has the money to continue. If Kerry wins New Hampshire, then he faces another test. He's got to go south and prove that he is truly a national candidate. He has won Iowa. He will have won New Hampshire. But the South is a bigger test.
HEMMER: John Edwards is trailing far behind, number four right now. He's not moving in New Hampshire the same way Kerry has out of Iowa, despite both of them getting so much attention and a rather substantial bounce.
Why is that, do you believe?
SCHNEIDER: Well, they're both moving up -- yes, well, they're both moving up, but Kerry is really moving up. Kerry has been the front runner here, in the middle of the last year. He lost that status to Dean in the fall. Now he's regained it because of Dean's implosion. Dean is really hemorrhaging votes.
Edwards has been moving up a few points, but he's still, according to all the polls, running forth and isn't getting quite as much of a bounce. The story here is big bounce for Kerry, little bounce for Edwards.
HEMMER: How did New Hampshire see these two men? They're not, they're not strangers to them at all. Both come from neighboring states, Howard Dean in Vermont, John Kerry in Massachusetts. Has one before now enjoyed more popularity than the other?
SCHNEIDER: Well, at first it was Kerry, because New Hampshire knows more about Massachusetts -- a lot of them live close to the Massachusetts border -- than they did about Vermont. Then Iowa just reintroduced both of these guys to the neighboring state. They thought they knew Kerry. They thought they knew Dean. Then the race in Iowa gave them a new picture of both candidates.
What we are seeing is Dean's negative ratings, his unfavorability rising very fast because he lost Iowa, a very disappointing finish, and the sort of mad dog Dean performance at the end of the Iowa caucuses.
It also reintroduced John Kerry to his neighbors and this was not the John Kerry they thought they knew. He looks like a winner. He looks strong. He looks credible. And that's a whole new Kerry.
HEMMER: Yes, that, indeed, it is. Listen, later tonight with this debate, about two hours in length in New Hampshire. All the candidates will be there together. Get away from being an analyst for a second and be an advisor.
What would you advise Howard Dean to do? Does he come out and make fun of what happened last Monday night in Iowa? Does he try and look presidential? Your take on that?
SCHNEIDER: He has to look presidential. I'd advise him, number one, to keep his coat on. Number two, to tone down the rhetoric. He can be critical of his chat -- his competitors, but he's got to do so in a way that looks dignified, that looks presidential, because a lot of people look to that performance and said hey, this guy doesn't really look like a president. Tone it down a little bit. But he's trying to become the John McCain of this campaign, to say I'm the only one who is a real anti-establishment outsider. That's got to be his message, but it can't be a tone that sounds like Monday night.
HEMMER: Yes, you talked about history earlier, 1992, Bill Clinton skipped Iowa, came in second in New Hampshire, still got the nomination, so it could be anybody's ball game even at this point.
SCHNEIDER: Right.
HEMMER: Thank you, Bill.
Talk to you very soon in New Hampshire.
SCHNEIDER: Sure.
HEMMER: Appreciate it.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
