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American Morning

Polls Show Dean Falling, Who Benefited from Beating in Iowa

Aired January 23, 2004 - 07:35   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, who joins us live from Manchester this morning -- Bill, good morning.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Some new polls to talk about. Let's start with those first. That Zogby tracking poll which drops every additional day, drops the previous days and adds on the information from the new days, we see John Kerry, 30 percent; Howard Dean, 22 percent.

What do you think of this poll?

SCHNEIDER: Well, what this poll shows is that Kerry continues his upward momentum and Dean's slide has continued right through last night. That's the order we've been seeing all along -- Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards -- and that seems to be sustained.

The question is has Dean stopped the hemorrhaging with his performance last night both in the debate and with the interview with his wife? We don't know yet. We'll know more in the next day or so. But there is a danger for Dean. The danger is he could end up coming out of New Hampshire third. There was a poll, there is a poll, the New Hampshire poll that came out last night showing that Dean has slipped behind General Wesley Clark. Their order is Kerry first with a wide lead, Clark second and Dean slightly behind Clark.

If Dean were to end up coming in third in New Hampshire, that could be devastating because he once had a formidable 25 point lead in this state.

O'BRIEN: As you mentioned, he'd been doing the rounds, sort of talking about what they call the Dean scream now.

Let's listen to a little bit of what he had to say to Diane Sawyer explaining some of this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would not make the case for a moment that that was presidential, not for a moment. Last night I went to a hockey game. My son got an assist in the first goal. I went yahoo! and jumped up in the air. That's presidential? Probably not.

Look, I'm a dad. I'm a human being and I'm going to keep being a dad and a human being. (END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: I'm a dad, I'm a human being, do you think that works as an explanation? We heard Terry McCauliffe say, you know, people are making too much of it, it wasn't really a big deal, he was talking to the 3,500 people, sort of lost sight of the fact that the nation was watching.

Do you think that works?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he basically shrugged it off and said look, that's just me, it was a moment of exuberance, it was -- he acknowledges that it was not when he was attempting to be presidential. He should have known better and I think a lot of people were shocked by that performance because that's the first exposure they had to Howard Dean.

I thought the best explanation, and certainly the best line in that entire debate, was given by Al Sharpton, who turned to Governor Dean and said, I'd be hooting and hollering too if I had just gotten, spent all that money in Iowa and then ended up with 18 percent. Exactly.

O'BRIEN: Howard Dean had a good laugh at that, as well.

The biggest factor in this race, is it going to be electability? I mean people talk about their issues and their platform. But at the end of the day, is the question can you beat President Bush?

SCHNEIDER: That's exactly what people are asking and I think that problem has surfaced for Governor Dean for quite some time, long before his performance Monday night. We saw Dean beginning to slide in the polls because a lot of voters said wait a minute, can this guy be elected, a governor of Vermont, with no national or international experience? He really had two vulnerabilities -- one, his lack of experience in national and world affairs; and, two, what people took as his angry demeanor, which was confirmed by his performance Monday night. He claimed he wasn't angry, he was exuberant, but the temperament question was very serious.

So who profited from that? One, John Kerry. What does he have to offer? Experience, knowledge. He's been around the scene a long time. He looks like he can stand there with George Bush.

Two, John Edwards. What does he have to offer? Positive, optimistic. Both very much unlike Howard Dean.

O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider joining us this morning.

Bill, thanks.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




Iowa>


Aired January 23, 2004 - 07:35   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's turn now to our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, who joins us live from Manchester this morning -- Bill, good morning.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Some new polls to talk about. Let's start with those first. That Zogby tracking poll which drops every additional day, drops the previous days and adds on the information from the new days, we see John Kerry, 30 percent; Howard Dean, 22 percent.

What do you think of this poll?

SCHNEIDER: Well, what this poll shows is that Kerry continues his upward momentum and Dean's slide has continued right through last night. That's the order we've been seeing all along -- Kerry, Dean, Clark, Edwards -- and that seems to be sustained.

The question is has Dean stopped the hemorrhaging with his performance last night both in the debate and with the interview with his wife? We don't know yet. We'll know more in the next day or so. But there is a danger for Dean. The danger is he could end up coming out of New Hampshire third. There was a poll, there is a poll, the New Hampshire poll that came out last night showing that Dean has slipped behind General Wesley Clark. Their order is Kerry first with a wide lead, Clark second and Dean slightly behind Clark.

If Dean were to end up coming in third in New Hampshire, that could be devastating because he once had a formidable 25 point lead in this state.

O'BRIEN: As you mentioned, he'd been doing the rounds, sort of talking about what they call the Dean scream now.

Let's listen to a little bit of what he had to say to Diane Sawyer explaining some of this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I would not make the case for a moment that that was presidential, not for a moment. Last night I went to a hockey game. My son got an assist in the first goal. I went yahoo! and jumped up in the air. That's presidential? Probably not.

Look, I'm a dad. I'm a human being and I'm going to keep being a dad and a human being. (END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: I'm a dad, I'm a human being, do you think that works as an explanation? We heard Terry McCauliffe say, you know, people are making too much of it, it wasn't really a big deal, he was talking to the 3,500 people, sort of lost sight of the fact that the nation was watching.

Do you think that works?

SCHNEIDER: Well, he basically shrugged it off and said look, that's just me, it was a moment of exuberance, it was -- he acknowledges that it was not when he was attempting to be presidential. He should have known better and I think a lot of people were shocked by that performance because that's the first exposure they had to Howard Dean.

I thought the best explanation, and certainly the best line in that entire debate, was given by Al Sharpton, who turned to Governor Dean and said, I'd be hooting and hollering too if I had just gotten, spent all that money in Iowa and then ended up with 18 percent. Exactly.

O'BRIEN: Howard Dean had a good laugh at that, as well.

The biggest factor in this race, is it going to be electability? I mean people talk about their issues and their platform. But at the end of the day, is the question can you beat President Bush?

SCHNEIDER: That's exactly what people are asking and I think that problem has surfaced for Governor Dean for quite some time, long before his performance Monday night. We saw Dean beginning to slide in the polls because a lot of voters said wait a minute, can this guy be elected, a governor of Vermont, with no national or international experience? He really had two vulnerabilities -- one, his lack of experience in national and world affairs; and, two, what people took as his angry demeanor, which was confirmed by his performance Monday night. He claimed he wasn't angry, he was exuberant, but the temperament question was very serious.

So who profited from that? One, John Kerry. What does he have to offer? Experience, knowledge. He's been around the scene a long time. He looks like he can stand there with George Bush.

Two, John Edwards. What does he have to offer? Positive, optimistic. Both very much unlike Howard Dean.

O'BRIEN: Bill Schneider joining us this morning.

Bill, thanks.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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