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American Morning
New Hampshire Primary
Aired January 26, 2004 - 07:04 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The Democratic presidential candidates will be out early and are scheduled to campaign well into the night tonight. They're not taking anything for granted ahead of tomorrow's New Hampshire primary.
Bob Franken is in Hanover, New Hampshire, for us today.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): John Kerry wins the award for the photo-op of the weekend, swapping yucks and pucks with the National Hockey League's Boston Bruins.
A "Newsweek" poll shows that in a face-off right now, Kerry could skate past President Bush. Not only that, but he's "Newsweek's" cover boy this week. The magazine, just a few weeks ago, had fronted Howard Dean.
Dean is going all out -- more appearances with his previously- reclusive wife and mother, and still trying to laugh off Iowa.
HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I just want you know, I am so excited to be here that I could just scream. But I won't.
FRANKEN: Meanwhile, Wesley Clark is raising the volume himself, making his own assault on second place.
WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to go. We're going to do it.
FRANKEN: And John Edwards, senator positive?
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm going to keep doing exactly what I'm doing. When it's working, you don't change.
FRANKEN: It's yet to work for Edwards in New Hampshire like it did in Iowa, but he's still plugging.
And Joe Lieberman is trying to knock on the door, up from the single digits.
SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I can get Democrats, Independents and a growing number of Republicans who are disappointed with George Bush but won't vote for any Democrat. They'll vote for me.
(END VIDEOTAPE) O'BRIEN: That was Bob Franken reporting for us this morning.
For more on the New Hampshire race, as the time to vote nears, we're going to turn to CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield.
Hey -- Jeff. Good morning. Jeff, we should mention, is joining us from Manchester, New Hampshire, this morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Hi.
O'BRIEN: Let's start with the polling, Jeff, shall we? Only because I know how much you hate polls.
GREENFIELD: Yes.
O'BRIEN: And so, I want to talk to you about polls, because, overall, I know individual polls, you do not hold a lot of stock in. But when the polls overall start trending a certain direction, shall we say, then don't you look at them and say, OK, there is some validity here?
GREENFIELD: No -- yes. My problem with them is that somebody called them the crack cocaine of journalists. And it kind of gets us high, and then we stop talking about other things like what do these candidates stand for. But it is, you know, 24 hours out. With one exception, the Zogby Poll, which has Dean almost tied with Kerry, the polls are all painting the same picture at the top.
But two things: New Hampshire, as Bob Franken told us, the voters here are notorious for last-minute moves. And the second thing is, New Hampshire is the start of the non-retail part of the campaign. Once this primary is over, we go into a seven-state primary a week from now, where we start talking about delegates. And who comes in second and third here really does matter.
And the polls are really all over the place on that. There were four different candidates in third place yesterday. And that's why I just think, you know, it would be helpful to step back.
That said, John Kerry here is where his supporters thought he'd be a year ago at this point and where nobody thought he'd be six weeks ago. And he has appeared to have done here what he did in Iowa -- to stage a move in the last couple of weeks, which, you know, puts him in the catbird's seat, as we don't say in New York.
O'BRIEN: We never say that in New York. At the end of the day, is it all about who can beat President Bush? Because, when you look at the specifics again -- and I know you hate polls -- but you see Howard Dean getting actually good numbers for who is most in touch with Americans on all of the things that you think would count heavily. And yet, when it comes to electability, he doesnt do so well.
GREENFIELD: Yes, I think unlike some primaries, where you really see a party split on the message -- you know, last year Bush and McCain were two very different kinds of Republicans. You know, we thought at one point that the Iraq war would be the issue that split Democratic primary voters. But I think what happened in Iowa has happened here in hearts and spades. Democrats here really aren't saying who they're for based on anything other than who they think is the strongest candidate, and that is unusual.
Traditionally, primary voters care about a candidate who thinks the way they do. The argument that a candidate is stronger in November usually doesn't cut much ice with voters. I think it's different here this time.
O'BRIEN: We only have a few seconds left, Jeff. But Howard Dean has said New Hampshire voters have a habit of reversing Iowans. Is that historically true?
GREENFIELD: It is historically true, but as I'm coming to believe the more I look at this, any rule you put down about presidential politics -- because it only happens once every four years -- is dangerous. Yes, often New Hampshirites doesn't follow Iowa's lead, but it's not because they don't like Iowa. They just are their own folks.
And I think, you know, this time, if the polls are right, they're going to do what Iowans did, and then we get to the interesting part. Then we move south. Then we move west, and we begin to approach states with real numbers of people in it instead of two relatively small states.
So, I wouldn't make past prolong on this in any event -- in any case.
O'BRIEN: Jeff, you know I love it when you say, "Then it gets interesting." Jeff Greenfield joining us this morning. Thanks, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
Aired January 26, 2004 - 07:04 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: The Democratic presidential candidates will be out early and are scheduled to campaign well into the night tonight. They're not taking anything for granted ahead of tomorrow's New Hampshire primary.
Bob Franken is in Hanover, New Hampshire, for us today.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): John Kerry wins the award for the photo-op of the weekend, swapping yucks and pucks with the National Hockey League's Boston Bruins.
A "Newsweek" poll shows that in a face-off right now, Kerry could skate past President Bush. Not only that, but he's "Newsweek's" cover boy this week. The magazine, just a few weeks ago, had fronted Howard Dean.
Dean is going all out -- more appearances with his previously- reclusive wife and mother, and still trying to laugh off Iowa.
HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I just want you know, I am so excited to be here that I could just scream. But I won't.
FRANKEN: Meanwhile, Wesley Clark is raising the volume himself, making his own assault on second place.
WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to go. We're going to do it.
FRANKEN: And John Edwards, senator positive?
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm going to keep doing exactly what I'm doing. When it's working, you don't change.
FRANKEN: It's yet to work for Edwards in New Hampshire like it did in Iowa, but he's still plugging.
And Joe Lieberman is trying to knock on the door, up from the single digits.
SEN. JOSEPH LIEBERMAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I can get Democrats, Independents and a growing number of Republicans who are disappointed with George Bush but won't vote for any Democrat. They'll vote for me.
(END VIDEOTAPE) O'BRIEN: That was Bob Franken reporting for us this morning.
For more on the New Hampshire race, as the time to vote nears, we're going to turn to CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield.
Hey -- Jeff. Good morning. Jeff, we should mention, is joining us from Manchester, New Hampshire, this morning.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: Hi.
O'BRIEN: Let's start with the polling, Jeff, shall we? Only because I know how much you hate polls.
GREENFIELD: Yes.
O'BRIEN: And so, I want to talk to you about polls, because, overall, I know individual polls, you do not hold a lot of stock in. But when the polls overall start trending a certain direction, shall we say, then don't you look at them and say, OK, there is some validity here?
GREENFIELD: No -- yes. My problem with them is that somebody called them the crack cocaine of journalists. And it kind of gets us high, and then we stop talking about other things like what do these candidates stand for. But it is, you know, 24 hours out. With one exception, the Zogby Poll, which has Dean almost tied with Kerry, the polls are all painting the same picture at the top.
But two things: New Hampshire, as Bob Franken told us, the voters here are notorious for last-minute moves. And the second thing is, New Hampshire is the start of the non-retail part of the campaign. Once this primary is over, we go into a seven-state primary a week from now, where we start talking about delegates. And who comes in second and third here really does matter.
And the polls are really all over the place on that. There were four different candidates in third place yesterday. And that's why I just think, you know, it would be helpful to step back.
That said, John Kerry here is where his supporters thought he'd be a year ago at this point and where nobody thought he'd be six weeks ago. And he has appeared to have done here what he did in Iowa -- to stage a move in the last couple of weeks, which, you know, puts him in the catbird's seat, as we don't say in New York.
O'BRIEN: We never say that in New York. At the end of the day, is it all about who can beat President Bush? Because, when you look at the specifics again -- and I know you hate polls -- but you see Howard Dean getting actually good numbers for who is most in touch with Americans on all of the things that you think would count heavily. And yet, when it comes to electability, he doesnt do so well.
GREENFIELD: Yes, I think unlike some primaries, where you really see a party split on the message -- you know, last year Bush and McCain were two very different kinds of Republicans. You know, we thought at one point that the Iraq war would be the issue that split Democratic primary voters. But I think what happened in Iowa has happened here in hearts and spades. Democrats here really aren't saying who they're for based on anything other than who they think is the strongest candidate, and that is unusual.
Traditionally, primary voters care about a candidate who thinks the way they do. The argument that a candidate is stronger in November usually doesn't cut much ice with voters. I think it's different here this time.
O'BRIEN: We only have a few seconds left, Jeff. But Howard Dean has said New Hampshire voters have a habit of reversing Iowans. Is that historically true?
GREENFIELD: It is historically true, but as I'm coming to believe the more I look at this, any rule you put down about presidential politics -- because it only happens once every four years -- is dangerous. Yes, often New Hampshirites doesn't follow Iowa's lead, but it's not because they don't like Iowa. They just are their own folks.
And I think, you know, this time, if the polls are right, they're going to do what Iowans did, and then we get to the interesting part. Then we move south. Then we move west, and we begin to approach states with real numbers of people in it instead of two relatively small states.
So, I wouldn't make past prolong on this in any event -- in any case.
O'BRIEN: Jeff, you know I love it when you say, "Then it gets interesting." Jeff Greenfield joining us this morning. Thanks, Jeff.
GREENFIELD: OK.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.
