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American Morning

One Full Day of Campaigning to Go

Aired January 26, 2004 - 08:04   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: One full day of campaigning to go. John Kerry not resting on his laurels or his lead in New Hampshire. The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup tracking poll shows Kerry still ahead of Howard Dean, who's a solid second. This is the number in our poll -- 11 points for John Kerry. But the rest of the fight, presumably for third place, no less intense. John Edwards, the senator contending, big crowds at recent rallies show that people are responding to his message much like they did in Iowa. Senator Joe Lieberman using the term Joementum to describe the increasing interest in his campaign. And while Wesley Clark's support has dropped a bit, he suggests that undecided voters still could be a key factor tomorrow.
CNN political analyst Carlos Watson live in Manchester to talk about the numbers and that final push for voters.

Carlos, good morning to you.

I hope you're staying warm inside up there.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Bill, I'm doing my best. It's pretty cold out here.

HEMMER: Excellent.

Listen, I showed you the numbers from CNN/"USA Today." The Zogby tracking poll, just out about an hour ago, shows a much tighter lead, John Kerry by only three points over Howard Dean.

Those numbers suggest what to you?

WATSON: That the race certainly is getting closer. And New Hampshire has a history of defying its polls. Four years ago, we saw polls literally the day before the election suggesting that George Bush was going to beat John McCain by two points. He ultimately lost by 18. So the New Hampshirites are notorious for making up their mind at the last second. And some polls suggested as many as a third of the voters are still somewhat undecided.

HEMMER: Carlos, we want to show our viewers a picture of John Kerry back on the stump already today, Portsmouth, New Hampshire, just east of Manchester, about 45 minutes away from your location.

As we look at this image, Carlos, we want to put up on our screen also another poll that we track here at children. The question goes to electability between John Kerry and Howard Dean. Fifty-six percent say John Kerry has the best chance of beating President Bush. Only 16 percent checked the same category for Howard Dean.

What does that tell you?

WATSON: Well, it tells me that electability certainly has become the preeminent issue. And it's interesting because you would think that issues like health care, you'd think that issues like job creation would be the first and foremost. But interestingly enough, people are really focused on electability.

I'll say this, though, that is a tricky game to play. Certainly in 1992, no one could have predicted that the governor of a small state who had problems with issues of adultery and pot smoking and the draft would beat a sitting president and a war hero. And who in the world, including Jimmy Carter's White House, would have thought that Ronald Reagan, who was frequently portrayed as being intemperate, would beat him not only by a few points, but literally by almost 10 points in 1980.

So you never know who truly is electable.

HEMMER: Indeed, you're right there.

Wesley Clark appears to be slipping in his support. We've watched him erode consistently day after day. Not quite sure why, but I want to play a portion of an interview that John Kerry did last night with Ed Bradley on "60 Minutes." It goes back to this issue about a week ago when Wesley Clark came out and said, well, some things about John Kerry's military experience that he did not appreciate.

Listen here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ED BRADLEY, HOST: Wesley Clark has said that he has won a war. He has negotiated a peace agreement. I'm not worried about John Kerry, he's a lieutenant, I'm a general.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, that's the first time I've heard a general be so dismissive of lieutenants who bleed a lot in wars.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Extremely strong comments exchanged between two veterans.

Is it nasty or is it just that way on the surface?

WATSON: You know, it's more that way on the surface. The story here is that Wesley Clark -- remember, Bill, he entered the race in August or September actually and rode to number one in all of the polls. Then he dropped and over the last several weeks, he actually had New Hampshire to himself and rode to a strong second place, with 21 or 22 points. But since other competitors have come here. And given Kerry's bounce in Iowa, he has struggled here. And the reason for his campaign, that he was the anti-Dean, no longer plays as well, given Kerry's win in Iowa and Edwards' strong second place finish.

I think the race is going to get much nastier after New Hampshire, when Clark literally will probably be fighting for his political life at that point.

HEMMER: And you've got South Carolina going then, Missouri going then, Arizona and the Southwest. It will be very interesting, as you point out.

Carlos, thanks.

We'll see you tomorrow in New Hampshire, all right?

WATSON: Bill, good to see you.

HEMMER: Carlos Watson there.

OK, we'll see you tomorrow.

I'll be live in New Hampshire tomorrow morning, as the voters head to the primary polls in the Granite State. Who knows where we'll be in two days from now?

We'll check it out tomorrow, 7:00 a.m. Eastern here on AMERICAN MORNING.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 26, 2004 - 08:04   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: One full day of campaigning to go. John Kerry not resting on his laurels or his lead in New Hampshire. The latest CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup tracking poll shows Kerry still ahead of Howard Dean, who's a solid second. This is the number in our poll -- 11 points for John Kerry. But the rest of the fight, presumably for third place, no less intense. John Edwards, the senator contending, big crowds at recent rallies show that people are responding to his message much like they did in Iowa. Senator Joe Lieberman using the term Joementum to describe the increasing interest in his campaign. And while Wesley Clark's support has dropped a bit, he suggests that undecided voters still could be a key factor tomorrow.
CNN political analyst Carlos Watson live in Manchester to talk about the numbers and that final push for voters.

Carlos, good morning to you.

I hope you're staying warm inside up there.

CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Bill, I'm doing my best. It's pretty cold out here.

HEMMER: Excellent.

Listen, I showed you the numbers from CNN/"USA Today." The Zogby tracking poll, just out about an hour ago, shows a much tighter lead, John Kerry by only three points over Howard Dean.

Those numbers suggest what to you?

WATSON: That the race certainly is getting closer. And New Hampshire has a history of defying its polls. Four years ago, we saw polls literally the day before the election suggesting that George Bush was going to beat John McCain by two points. He ultimately lost by 18. So the New Hampshirites are notorious for making up their mind at the last second. And some polls suggested as many as a third of the voters are still somewhat undecided.

HEMMER: Carlos, we want to show our viewers a picture of John Kerry back on the stump already today, Portsmouth, New Hampshire, just east of Manchester, about 45 minutes away from your location.

As we look at this image, Carlos, we want to put up on our screen also another poll that we track here at children. The question goes to electability between John Kerry and Howard Dean. Fifty-six percent say John Kerry has the best chance of beating President Bush. Only 16 percent checked the same category for Howard Dean.

What does that tell you?

WATSON: Well, it tells me that electability certainly has become the preeminent issue. And it's interesting because you would think that issues like health care, you'd think that issues like job creation would be the first and foremost. But interestingly enough, people are really focused on electability.

I'll say this, though, that is a tricky game to play. Certainly in 1992, no one could have predicted that the governor of a small state who had problems with issues of adultery and pot smoking and the draft would beat a sitting president and a war hero. And who in the world, including Jimmy Carter's White House, would have thought that Ronald Reagan, who was frequently portrayed as being intemperate, would beat him not only by a few points, but literally by almost 10 points in 1980.

So you never know who truly is electable.

HEMMER: Indeed, you're right there.

Wesley Clark appears to be slipping in his support. We've watched him erode consistently day after day. Not quite sure why, but I want to play a portion of an interview that John Kerry did last night with Ed Bradley on "60 Minutes." It goes back to this issue about a week ago when Wesley Clark came out and said, well, some things about John Kerry's military experience that he did not appreciate.

Listen here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ED BRADLEY, HOST: Wesley Clark has said that he has won a war. He has negotiated a peace agreement. I'm not worried about John Kerry, he's a lieutenant, I'm a general.

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, that's the first time I've heard a general be so dismissive of lieutenants who bleed a lot in wars.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Extremely strong comments exchanged between two veterans.

Is it nasty or is it just that way on the surface?

WATSON: You know, it's more that way on the surface. The story here is that Wesley Clark -- remember, Bill, he entered the race in August or September actually and rode to number one in all of the polls. Then he dropped and over the last several weeks, he actually had New Hampshire to himself and rode to a strong second place, with 21 or 22 points. But since other competitors have come here. And given Kerry's bounce in Iowa, he has struggled here. And the reason for his campaign, that he was the anti-Dean, no longer plays as well, given Kerry's win in Iowa and Edwards' strong second place finish.

I think the race is going to get much nastier after New Hampshire, when Clark literally will probably be fighting for his political life at that point.

HEMMER: And you've got South Carolina going then, Missouri going then, Arizona and the Southwest. It will be very interesting, as you point out.

Carlos, thanks.

We'll see you tomorrow in New Hampshire, all right?

WATSON: Bill, good to see you.

HEMMER: Carlos Watson there.

OK, we'll see you tomorrow.

I'll be live in New Hampshire tomorrow morning, as the voters head to the primary polls in the Granite State. Who knows where we'll be in two days from now?

We'll check it out tomorrow, 7:00 a.m. Eastern here on AMERICAN MORNING.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com