Return to Transcripts main page

American Morning

They Are Voting in New Hampshire

Aired January 27, 2004 - 08:06   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: They are voting here in New Hampshire. In fact, the polls are open for about 12 more hours and counting. The weather is pretty nasty outside. However, we are told, record turnout still predicted today. All candidates calling on their supporters to get out and vote, which has some officials again predicting a record turnout.
Earlier today on AMERICAN MORNING, in fact, last hour, I talked with Senator Kerry about the comeback he started a week ago in the State of Iowa.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Three weeks ago, you guys were writing me off. This is the comeback trail. If I win here, I think that's enormous, and I'll take one point given where the campaign was judged to be by most people in the media a couple of months ago. I think we've got a lot of energy here and I'm not looking at polls. I'm out there looking for votes and talking to the citizens of New Hampshire. And there are still people undecided. I want them to understand that I am the strongest candidate to go against George Bush.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Senator Kerry leads Howard Dean in the polls. Dean has been criticizing Kerry's judgment for supporting a resolution authorizing the war in Iraq. Dean has also spent about twice the money as Kerry on advertising in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, General Wesley Clark won the early voting in tiny Dixville Notch late last night, right after midnight. Last hour on AMERICAN MORNING, I asked the general about his recent slide in the polls. His answer now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're very happy with where we are in New Hampshire. I've never run for office before. Some of the people have been up here for years working the connections and so I'm very happy with where I've been. And we've gotten a very strong support from people across this state and I feel very good about it. We've got a national campaign. We'll be going all across the country. We've got a very strong message and I think we'll do very well.

(END VIDEO CLIP) HEMMER: Senator John Edwards hoping to replicate his surprising second place finish in Iowa. He's aiming to win next Tuesday's South Carolina primary. That's where the attention shifts tomorrow. There's also voting in six other states on the 3rd of February, as well.

Senator Joe Lieberman hoping a strong finish will help save his campaign. He's relying on New Hampshire's large bloc of independent voters, who may be attracted to his centrist, more moderate campaign, he says. Joe Lieberman is our guest next hour.

More analysis on all this, James Carville, co-host of CNN's "Crossfire," a former Bill Clinton campaign advisor, knows the state all too well.

What have you got going on over there -- James.

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, CNN'S "CROSSFIRE": Well, we're just sitting here, I've been talking to these campaigns. I spent a lot of time with the Edwards people last night. A couple of key numbers we want to look for tonight. Number one, 35. The further Kerry falls below 35, I think, the worst news it is for him. The more he rises above 35, the better news it is for him.

I think it's important for Edwards not to lose contact. He can run third, but he can't lose contact with Dean. He has to stay close enough to where he maintains that.

And Dean's got, he's got to come close. If he takes another drubbing here, it's not going to be good for him at all because at some point somebody else has got to start winning some primaries here. I mean we tend to focus on what happens beyond -- behind the front runner, and that's fine. But once you come next Tuesday, we're going to start counting delegates and somebody other than Kerry has got to win some primaries and the road to winning primaries next Tuesday is to do well in New Hampshire tonight.

So this is a big event. This is a really fun event here (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

HEMMER: Hey, let me back you up just a second here.

You're in a place called the war room, right?

CARVILLE: I'm sorry, Bill, I can't...

HEMMER: You've got a, you're in a place called the war room.

CARVILLE: Yes, I'm in a place called the war room.

HEMMER: That's where you make analysis there. And you...

CARVILLE: And we've got it kind of messed up like it was in '92. It's a little nostalgia here, having a good time. This is a fun deal.

HEMMER: Yes, nostalgia. I think there was a movie called the same thing, "The War Room."

Listen, a quick question for you. We came in together on the plane last evening. Is it your sense that there is the same amount of excitement in New Hampshire as we saw the fever pitch in Iowa or not?

CARVILLE: There's a ton of excitement here. I can't -- seeing these campaigns -- I'm going out today, I'm going to get a car, I'm going to ride and go to the precincts. This is -- to me, this is the most fine thing you can have in presidential politics. I think the turnout is going to be enormously high. I think the voters are excited about this. I know these kids in these campaigns are excited. I can see in these candidates' faces they're nervous, but they're excited.

This thing is going to be an exciting day, an exciting night, and there's going to be real consequences to determine who the Democratic nominee is.

The weather reports of late snow could have -- cold will not affect the turnout here. Snow, heavy snow could affect turnout, particularly among the elderly. Some people may not go out if the snow is going to be really, really heavy. But these people live in cold weather. They're going to be completely unaffected by that. We've just got to look and see what happens in terms of the snow.

HEMMER: Listen, James, you crunch numbers as well as anyone. You did that for us in your first answer there.

Do you think if John Kerry doesn't win big, is that a disappointment?

CARVILLE: I've got a terrible -- if John -- we've got terrible audio here. If John Kerry doesn't win big, I mean it gives some new life into Howard Dean's campaign, which didn't have a whole lot of life on Wednesday. He doesn't have to -- I don't know, everybody, the entire press and everybody is talking about well, gee, if it's five, if it's three, if it's seven. Again, I think that if you look at that critical 35 number, if -- it all has to add up to 100. If John Kerry gets 35 or better, it's going to be -- he's going to win by a decent amount.

You're going to hear a lot of talk tonight about well, we're going to pick this state and run in that, we're going to pick that state and run in that. The truth of the matter is you're running for the presidency of the United States. You've got to compete all across this country. And I hope that these guys, you know -- you know, if they have resource allocation, you can only make so many visits to seven states. But in the end, this thing, I think that Terry McCauliffe, by front loading these -- he was much criticized for that, much doubted -- I suspect that we're going to produce a nominee pretty soon in this process.

HEMMER: Wow.

How many drop out tomorrow, then?

CARVILLE: I'm sorry?

HEMMER: I said how many drop out tomorrow if that's the case?

CARVILLE: Well, I think of the big five, two will be gone tomorrow, whether they drop out, I mean it doesn't -- whether you drop out or not it doesn't matter.

HEMMER: Yes.

CARVILLE: But if you finish far -- if two people finish far behind here, then it's going to be pretty hard for them to raise money, it's going to be pretty hard for their supporters to stay with them.

HEMMER: Yes.

CARVILLE: And there's a great sense out there among every day rank and file Democrats is hey, if somebody does really well here, let's all get behind him and make that person the nominee. By the same token, you've got -- these guys have been out working hard. I mean Senator Edwards, I mean Dean, you can't...

HEMMER: Sure.

CARVILLE: You can't force people out of this thing too early. But somebody's got to show some ability to get votes in order to stay in this thing. You just can't stay in forever.

HEMMER: Thank you, James.

The next time I'm just going to shout across the room.

CARVILLE: There you go.

HEMMER: James Carville in the war room here in Manchester.

A bit later today, "Crossfire," James is back, 4:30 Eastern time, again, live from New Hampshire.

CNN complete coverage of the primary later tonight. Our coverage begins at 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 on the West Coast.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 27, 2004 - 08:06   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: They are voting here in New Hampshire. In fact, the polls are open for about 12 more hours and counting. The weather is pretty nasty outside. However, we are told, record turnout still predicted today. All candidates calling on their supporters to get out and vote, which has some officials again predicting a record turnout.
Earlier today on AMERICAN MORNING, in fact, last hour, I talked with Senator Kerry about the comeback he started a week ago in the State of Iowa.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN KERRY (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Three weeks ago, you guys were writing me off. This is the comeback trail. If I win here, I think that's enormous, and I'll take one point given where the campaign was judged to be by most people in the media a couple of months ago. I think we've got a lot of energy here and I'm not looking at polls. I'm out there looking for votes and talking to the citizens of New Hampshire. And there are still people undecided. I want them to understand that I am the strongest candidate to go against George Bush.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: Senator Kerry leads Howard Dean in the polls. Dean has been criticizing Kerry's judgment for supporting a resolution authorizing the war in Iraq. Dean has also spent about twice the money as Kerry on advertising in New Hampshire.

Meanwhile, General Wesley Clark won the early voting in tiny Dixville Notch late last night, right after midnight. Last hour on AMERICAN MORNING, I asked the general about his recent slide in the polls. His answer now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're very happy with where we are in New Hampshire. I've never run for office before. Some of the people have been up here for years working the connections and so I'm very happy with where I've been. And we've gotten a very strong support from people across this state and I feel very good about it. We've got a national campaign. We'll be going all across the country. We've got a very strong message and I think we'll do very well.

(END VIDEO CLIP) HEMMER: Senator John Edwards hoping to replicate his surprising second place finish in Iowa. He's aiming to win next Tuesday's South Carolina primary. That's where the attention shifts tomorrow. There's also voting in six other states on the 3rd of February, as well.

Senator Joe Lieberman hoping a strong finish will help save his campaign. He's relying on New Hampshire's large bloc of independent voters, who may be attracted to his centrist, more moderate campaign, he says. Joe Lieberman is our guest next hour.

More analysis on all this, James Carville, co-host of CNN's "Crossfire," a former Bill Clinton campaign advisor, knows the state all too well.

What have you got going on over there -- James.

JAMES CARVILLE, CO-HOST, CNN'S "CROSSFIRE": Well, we're just sitting here, I've been talking to these campaigns. I spent a lot of time with the Edwards people last night. A couple of key numbers we want to look for tonight. Number one, 35. The further Kerry falls below 35, I think, the worst news it is for him. The more he rises above 35, the better news it is for him.

I think it's important for Edwards not to lose contact. He can run third, but he can't lose contact with Dean. He has to stay close enough to where he maintains that.

And Dean's got, he's got to come close. If he takes another drubbing here, it's not going to be good for him at all because at some point somebody else has got to start winning some primaries here. I mean we tend to focus on what happens beyond -- behind the front runner, and that's fine. But once you come next Tuesday, we're going to start counting delegates and somebody other than Kerry has got to win some primaries and the road to winning primaries next Tuesday is to do well in New Hampshire tonight.

So this is a big event. This is a really fun event here (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

HEMMER: Hey, let me back you up just a second here.

You're in a place called the war room, right?

CARVILLE: I'm sorry, Bill, I can't...

HEMMER: You've got a, you're in a place called the war room.

CARVILLE: Yes, I'm in a place called the war room.

HEMMER: That's where you make analysis there. And you...

CARVILLE: And we've got it kind of messed up like it was in '92. It's a little nostalgia here, having a good time. This is a fun deal.

HEMMER: Yes, nostalgia. I think there was a movie called the same thing, "The War Room."

Listen, a quick question for you. We came in together on the plane last evening. Is it your sense that there is the same amount of excitement in New Hampshire as we saw the fever pitch in Iowa or not?

CARVILLE: There's a ton of excitement here. I can't -- seeing these campaigns -- I'm going out today, I'm going to get a car, I'm going to ride and go to the precincts. This is -- to me, this is the most fine thing you can have in presidential politics. I think the turnout is going to be enormously high. I think the voters are excited about this. I know these kids in these campaigns are excited. I can see in these candidates' faces they're nervous, but they're excited.

This thing is going to be an exciting day, an exciting night, and there's going to be real consequences to determine who the Democratic nominee is.

The weather reports of late snow could have -- cold will not affect the turnout here. Snow, heavy snow could affect turnout, particularly among the elderly. Some people may not go out if the snow is going to be really, really heavy. But these people live in cold weather. They're going to be completely unaffected by that. We've just got to look and see what happens in terms of the snow.

HEMMER: Listen, James, you crunch numbers as well as anyone. You did that for us in your first answer there.

Do you think if John Kerry doesn't win big, is that a disappointment?

CARVILLE: I've got a terrible -- if John -- we've got terrible audio here. If John Kerry doesn't win big, I mean it gives some new life into Howard Dean's campaign, which didn't have a whole lot of life on Wednesday. He doesn't have to -- I don't know, everybody, the entire press and everybody is talking about well, gee, if it's five, if it's three, if it's seven. Again, I think that if you look at that critical 35 number, if -- it all has to add up to 100. If John Kerry gets 35 or better, it's going to be -- he's going to win by a decent amount.

You're going to hear a lot of talk tonight about well, we're going to pick this state and run in that, we're going to pick that state and run in that. The truth of the matter is you're running for the presidency of the United States. You've got to compete all across this country. And I hope that these guys, you know -- you know, if they have resource allocation, you can only make so many visits to seven states. But in the end, this thing, I think that Terry McCauliffe, by front loading these -- he was much criticized for that, much doubted -- I suspect that we're going to produce a nominee pretty soon in this process.

HEMMER: Wow.

How many drop out tomorrow, then?

CARVILLE: I'm sorry?

HEMMER: I said how many drop out tomorrow if that's the case?

CARVILLE: Well, I think of the big five, two will be gone tomorrow, whether they drop out, I mean it doesn't -- whether you drop out or not it doesn't matter.

HEMMER: Yes.

CARVILLE: But if you finish far -- if two people finish far behind here, then it's going to be pretty hard for them to raise money, it's going to be pretty hard for their supporters to stay with them.

HEMMER: Yes.

CARVILLE: And there's a great sense out there among every day rank and file Democrats is hey, if somebody does really well here, let's all get behind him and make that person the nominee. By the same token, you've got -- these guys have been out working hard. I mean Senator Edwards, I mean Dean, you can't...

HEMMER: Sure.

CARVILLE: You can't force people out of this thing too early. But somebody's got to show some ability to get votes in order to stay in this thing. You just can't stay in forever.

HEMMER: Thank you, James.

The next time I'm just going to shout across the room.

CARVILLE: There you go.

HEMMER: James Carville in the war room here in Manchester.

A bit later today, "Crossfire," James is back, 4:30 Eastern time, again, live from New Hampshire.

CNN complete coverage of the primary later tonight. Our coverage begins at 7:00 Eastern, 4:00 on the West Coast.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com