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American Morning

New Hampshire Primary

Aired January 28, 2004 - 07:34   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: And you can argue with the system of primaries and caucuses, but you can not argue with voters in new Hampshire. They are informed, they know the candidates, they know the issues and they take their role in the primary season to heart. That's exactly what we found out yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Allenstown is typical for New Hampshire, employment is better than average, so too is the scenery. History runs deep here and politics is the topic over lunchtime coffee at Chantilly's Restaurant.

Our focus group, two Democrats, one Independent, had a split decision on Primary Day. David, a town administrator, voted for Wesley Clark. Arthur, a former business owner, supports John Kerry. And Donald, a war veteran, went for youth and John Edwards.

(on camera): What do you see in John Edwards?

DONALD GIRARD, INDEPENDENT VOTER: I think his biggest asset is his ability to communicate. He's got charisma and he'll appeal to a lot of female voters.

HEMMER (voice-over): All three believe education and health care are important issues. But the topic which generates the most conversation is the war in Iraq. That's why Arthur says he's backing Kerry.

ARTHUR HOULE, TOWN SELECTMAN: The weapons of mass destruction weren't there. And you know the key person that is out there still hasn't been captured, and I believe that person needs to be captured, and that's bin Laden. So we should be in Afghanistan getting him.

HEMMER: But the primary decisions at this table have not come easy. David settled on Clark early Tuesday morning, choosing the retired general instead of Howard Dean. This Democratic battle, he confesses, is nothing like the war for the White House in November.

(on camera): How tough is this president to beat?

DAVID JODOIN, TOWN ADMINISTRATOR: George Bush, very, very tough. He's got the backing. He's got the support of the Republican Party. He's got the financial resources behind him. He's got it. I mean it's going to be tough.

HEMMER (voice-over): That fight will come another day, long after the chilly New Hampshire winters have melted. This morning, the politicians, like the birds in Allenstown, are headed south.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

And by the way, rules allow just about anyone of proper age to vote in New Hampshire. Donald, even though he supported Edwards yesterday, insists he will vote for President Bush come next November. So it goes here in the state of New Hampshire.

And the question for us today, where do we go from here?

CNN political analyst, "L.A. Times" columnist, Ron Brownstein. A late night last night, up early today.

Nice to see you -- Ron.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning -- Bill.

HEMMER: These campaigns really set out for months to take on Howard Dean. Now they have to face John Kerry in a completely monumental shift. How do they do it? And do they do it well at this point?

BROWNSTEIN: And I think this morning they are feeling a little like that guy in Ohio who got buried by the snowplow twice. I mean they -- you're right, I mean throughout 2003 all of these campaigns, all of the distinctions they tried to draw in the race were designed to separate and distinguish themselves from Howard Dean. Now all of a sudden they are running a race that really no one thought they would have to against John Kerry.

And the past week, I think, suggests to me that they really haven't made a lot of progress about figuring out how they are going to sell themselves to voters, vis-a-vis, John Kerry. Wes Clark wants to emphasize executive experience. He stumbled around talking about that he stayed in the military longer than John Kerry. John Edwards is that he is more positive, he's more southern. None of these were sharp enough to really move large numbers of voters from where they started the week after Iowa leaning toward John Kerry.

The only one, interestingly, who is beginning to make some progress in thinking this through is Howard Dean. He has a line of argument. But whether he has enough credibility with voters to sell that argument is the big question facing him in this next week.

HEMMER: Yes, who do you think the Democratic leadership wants at this point? Would they be comfortable with John Kerry?

BROWNSTEIN: That's an -- that's an excellent question. Only a few weeks ago the "National Journal" magazine does a regular poll of Washington insiders and Democratic Party insiders and hardly any, I think it was down to one at one point, thought John Kerry was going to be the nominee. They are in the same position as the candidates.

This is something that very few people anticipated. Certainly there would be more comfort with a John Kerry than there would be with Howard Dean, especially in light of the temperament issues. But I think there is still a lot of Democrats who will worry about John Kerry's ability to appeal across the country, especially in the south.

HEMMER: We heard John Edwards last night. In fact, we talked to him in Columbia, South Carolina, 30 minutes ago, talking about two Americas. He talks about the haves and the have nots. You heard John Kerry last night,...

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, absolutely.

HEMMER: ... talking about the economic -- the economics of privilege was the phrase he used.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

HEMMER: Class warfare, does it work? Can it work for the Democratic candidates in '04?

BROWNSTEIN: Well the history of it has not been great. I mean the fact is that Democrats have tried this argument. It's a second order argument. It's often an argument you make when the economy is going well.

Here's the big irony, Democratic Party over the past generation is moving upscale. Their support is becoming more affluent and more college educated as voters increasingly divide along cultural rather than economic lines. The voters that they are aiming this populism at, blue collar America, have become increasingly Republican in the last 25 years or on issues like guns, strength, taxes, crime, while the Democrats are doing better in affluent suburbs who are presumably the people they are rallying against. So I'm not sure how much anybody really listens to this. In 2000, Al Gore tried it and it really didn't have a lot of effect on the electorate -- Bill.

HEMMER: See you in South Carolina.

BROWNSTEIN: All right, where it's a little warmer.

HEMMER: Thanks, Ron. Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times," CNN analyst here.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com






Aired January 28, 2004 - 07:34   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: And you can argue with the system of primaries and caucuses, but you can not argue with voters in new Hampshire. They are informed, they know the candidates, they know the issues and they take their role in the primary season to heart. That's exactly what we found out yesterday.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Allenstown is typical for New Hampshire, employment is better than average, so too is the scenery. History runs deep here and politics is the topic over lunchtime coffee at Chantilly's Restaurant.

Our focus group, two Democrats, one Independent, had a split decision on Primary Day. David, a town administrator, voted for Wesley Clark. Arthur, a former business owner, supports John Kerry. And Donald, a war veteran, went for youth and John Edwards.

(on camera): What do you see in John Edwards?

DONALD GIRARD, INDEPENDENT VOTER: I think his biggest asset is his ability to communicate. He's got charisma and he'll appeal to a lot of female voters.

HEMMER (voice-over): All three believe education and health care are important issues. But the topic which generates the most conversation is the war in Iraq. That's why Arthur says he's backing Kerry.

ARTHUR HOULE, TOWN SELECTMAN: The weapons of mass destruction weren't there. And you know the key person that is out there still hasn't been captured, and I believe that person needs to be captured, and that's bin Laden. So we should be in Afghanistan getting him.

HEMMER: But the primary decisions at this table have not come easy. David settled on Clark early Tuesday morning, choosing the retired general instead of Howard Dean. This Democratic battle, he confesses, is nothing like the war for the White House in November.

(on camera): How tough is this president to beat?

DAVID JODOIN, TOWN ADMINISTRATOR: George Bush, very, very tough. He's got the backing. He's got the support of the Republican Party. He's got the financial resources behind him. He's got it. I mean it's going to be tough.

HEMMER (voice-over): That fight will come another day, long after the chilly New Hampshire winters have melted. This morning, the politicians, like the birds in Allenstown, are headed south.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

And by the way, rules allow just about anyone of proper age to vote in New Hampshire. Donald, even though he supported Edwards yesterday, insists he will vote for President Bush come next November. So it goes here in the state of New Hampshire.

And the question for us today, where do we go from here?

CNN political analyst, "L.A. Times" columnist, Ron Brownstein. A late night last night, up early today.

Nice to see you -- Ron.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning -- Bill.

HEMMER: These campaigns really set out for months to take on Howard Dean. Now they have to face John Kerry in a completely monumental shift. How do they do it? And do they do it well at this point?

BROWNSTEIN: And I think this morning they are feeling a little like that guy in Ohio who got buried by the snowplow twice. I mean they -- you're right, I mean throughout 2003 all of these campaigns, all of the distinctions they tried to draw in the race were designed to separate and distinguish themselves from Howard Dean. Now all of a sudden they are running a race that really no one thought they would have to against John Kerry.

And the past week, I think, suggests to me that they really haven't made a lot of progress about figuring out how they are going to sell themselves to voters, vis-a-vis, John Kerry. Wes Clark wants to emphasize executive experience. He stumbled around talking about that he stayed in the military longer than John Kerry. John Edwards is that he is more positive, he's more southern. None of these were sharp enough to really move large numbers of voters from where they started the week after Iowa leaning toward John Kerry.

The only one, interestingly, who is beginning to make some progress in thinking this through is Howard Dean. He has a line of argument. But whether he has enough credibility with voters to sell that argument is the big question facing him in this next week.

HEMMER: Yes, who do you think the Democratic leadership wants at this point? Would they be comfortable with John Kerry?

BROWNSTEIN: That's an -- that's an excellent question. Only a few weeks ago the "National Journal" magazine does a regular poll of Washington insiders and Democratic Party insiders and hardly any, I think it was down to one at one point, thought John Kerry was going to be the nominee. They are in the same position as the candidates.

This is something that very few people anticipated. Certainly there would be more comfort with a John Kerry than there would be with Howard Dean, especially in light of the temperament issues. But I think there is still a lot of Democrats who will worry about John Kerry's ability to appeal across the country, especially in the south.

HEMMER: We heard John Edwards last night. In fact, we talked to him in Columbia, South Carolina, 30 minutes ago, talking about two Americas. He talks about the haves and the have nots. You heard John Kerry last night,...

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, absolutely.

HEMMER: ... talking about the economic -- the economics of privilege was the phrase he used.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

HEMMER: Class warfare, does it work? Can it work for the Democratic candidates in '04?

BROWNSTEIN: Well the history of it has not been great. I mean the fact is that Democrats have tried this argument. It's a second order argument. It's often an argument you make when the economy is going well.

Here's the big irony, Democratic Party over the past generation is moving upscale. Their support is becoming more affluent and more college educated as voters increasingly divide along cultural rather than economic lines. The voters that they are aiming this populism at, blue collar America, have become increasingly Republican in the last 25 years or on issues like guns, strength, taxes, crime, while the Democrats are doing better in affluent suburbs who are presumably the people they are rallying against. So I'm not sure how much anybody really listens to this. In 2000, Al Gore tried it and it really didn't have a lot of effect on the electorate -- Bill.

HEMMER: See you in South Carolina.

BROWNSTEIN: All right, where it's a little warmer.

HEMMER: Thanks, Ron. Ron Brownstein, "L.A. Times," CNN analyst here.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com