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American Morning

America Votes 2004

Aired February 09, 2004 - 08:37   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Back to politics now, and the Democratic dominator, John Kerry, the party's front runner, is poised to take Tennessee and possibly Virginia tomorrow after weekend wins in Washington State, in Michigan on Saturday, Maine possibly on Sunday -- results there in Maine a bit later today.
CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here for a look at the week in politics and what's coming up.

Good morning.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: The dominator?

HEMMER: The dominator, huh? So, John Kerry has got the mo. He's got the momentum. Virginia and Tennessee go tomorrow. What do these numbers tell you right now, Jeff?

GREENFIELD: Well, if you look at the polling out of Virginia and Tennessee, where Kerry is in the lead, but Edwards and Clark together beat him, it tells you how lucky John Kerry was that Wes Clark won the Oklahoma primary. Why, you may ask? Because if Clark had lost in Oklahoma, he was prepared to withdraw from the race. That would have left John Edwards as the only southerner in the race.

But because Clark eked out a very narrow victory in the state -- and look at the numbers. Edwards and Clark together in Virginia beat Kerry, 39-35. And then in Tennessee the margin is even greater. So, it was a big break, I think, for Kerry.

What he now has the chance to do is to beat both southerners in both states and effectively drive them out of the race, which, in the convoluted strategy of politics, is what Howard Dean wants, because Howard Dean wants to be the only guy standing in Wisconsin a week from tomorrow.

HEMMER: Yes.

GREENFIELD: There will be a quiz on this later.

HEMMER: I'm paying attention. What do you do if you are Howard Dean right now? Because the polling numbers aren't breaking his way.

GREENFIELD: No, the polling numbers are terrible. You know, he said Wisconsin is his, you know, Armageddon, stand or fall.

HEMMER: Last stand. GREENFIELD: He's in fourth place. I think what you do, first of all, you wish very hard that Edwards and Clark knock each other out. And then what you do is if you are the only guy standing, you appeal to Wisconsin to their pride. You say, you're the state that can keep this nomination alive, so that we don't rush to judgment.

On March 2, there are 10 states that can vote. Florida and Texas a week after that. If Wisconsin will vote for the candidate who is most against special interests, who is most against big money, you can keep this nomination alive and give Democrats a chance. To me, that's the only strategy that makes sense for Dean, and to say it's a long shot is an understatement.

HEMMER: But it seemed like he was parsing his words yesterday, because we thought he had said in an e-mail last Wednesday night that he was getting out if he doesn't win Wisconsin. But now, there's a little bit of a fudge area, do you not agree?

GREENFIELD: Boy, I read that e-mail, you know, his statements, and I read Warren Neal's (ph) statements, and there's not enough fudge there. You can be on the Atkins diet with that little fudge.

No, I think it's -- the problem that all of them have is what is the rationale for staying in? If this were a race where the Democratic Party were fighting over very serious issues, if there was a war that they disagreed about, if there was a fundamental disagreement about race, about economic policy, you could see the argument. I'm fighting for the soul of my party, they would say.

But, as everybody seems to have indicated, the differences are at the margin. And what Howard Dean has going for him, if he does, is the argument that we need a candidate who is most against insider dealings, special interests. I have figured out a way to raise money that's different from anybody else. Give me a chance.


Aired February 9, 2004 - 08:37   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Back to politics now, and the Democratic dominator, John Kerry, the party's front runner, is poised to take Tennessee and possibly Virginia tomorrow after weekend wins in Washington State, in Michigan on Saturday, Maine possibly on Sunday -- results there in Maine a bit later today.
CNN senior analyst Jeff Greenfield is here for a look at the week in politics and what's coming up.

Good morning.

JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: The dominator?

HEMMER: The dominator, huh? So, John Kerry has got the mo. He's got the momentum. Virginia and Tennessee go tomorrow. What do these numbers tell you right now, Jeff?

GREENFIELD: Well, if you look at the polling out of Virginia and Tennessee, where Kerry is in the lead, but Edwards and Clark together beat him, it tells you how lucky John Kerry was that Wes Clark won the Oklahoma primary. Why, you may ask? Because if Clark had lost in Oklahoma, he was prepared to withdraw from the race. That would have left John Edwards as the only southerner in the race.

But because Clark eked out a very narrow victory in the state -- and look at the numbers. Edwards and Clark together in Virginia beat Kerry, 39-35. And then in Tennessee the margin is even greater. So, it was a big break, I think, for Kerry.

What he now has the chance to do is to beat both southerners in both states and effectively drive them out of the race, which, in the convoluted strategy of politics, is what Howard Dean wants, because Howard Dean wants to be the only guy standing in Wisconsin a week from tomorrow.

HEMMER: Yes.

GREENFIELD: There will be a quiz on this later.

HEMMER: I'm paying attention. What do you do if you are Howard Dean right now? Because the polling numbers aren't breaking his way.

GREENFIELD: No, the polling numbers are terrible. You know, he said Wisconsin is his, you know, Armageddon, stand or fall.

HEMMER: Last stand. GREENFIELD: He's in fourth place. I think what you do, first of all, you wish very hard that Edwards and Clark knock each other out. And then what you do is if you are the only guy standing, you appeal to Wisconsin to their pride. You say, you're the state that can keep this nomination alive, so that we don't rush to judgment.

On March 2, there are 10 states that can vote. Florida and Texas a week after that. If Wisconsin will vote for the candidate who is most against special interests, who is most against big money, you can keep this nomination alive and give Democrats a chance. To me, that's the only strategy that makes sense for Dean, and to say it's a long shot is an understatement.

HEMMER: But it seemed like he was parsing his words yesterday, because we thought he had said in an e-mail last Wednesday night that he was getting out if he doesn't win Wisconsin. But now, there's a little bit of a fudge area, do you not agree?

GREENFIELD: Boy, I read that e-mail, you know, his statements, and I read Warren Neal's (ph) statements, and there's not enough fudge there. You can be on the Atkins diet with that little fudge.

No, I think it's -- the problem that all of them have is what is the rationale for staying in? If this were a race where the Democratic Party were fighting over very serious issues, if there was a war that they disagreed about, if there was a fundamental disagreement about race, about economic policy, you could see the argument. I'm fighting for the soul of my party, they would say.

But, as everybody seems to have indicated, the differences are at the margin. And what Howard Dean has going for him, if he does, is the argument that we need a candidate who is most against insider dealings, special interests. I have figured out a way to raise money that's different from anybody else. Give me a chance.