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American Morning
Iraq Transition
Aired February 16, 2004 - 08:39 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As the violence in Iraq continues without let-up, it raises questions about whether or not conditions will be safe enough to hand over power to Iraqis in a few months. The weekend brought a deadly and sophisticated guerrilla attack on a police station in Fallujah that was guarded by Iraqis. Twenty were dead. Insurgents freed dozens of prisoners. There are persistent questions about the possibility that Iraq may fall into civil war.
Former secretary of defense William Cohen our guest this morning live in D.C.
Great to have you back here. And good morning to you.
I have got a number of questions for you. Let's see how many we get through. Alaktar Brahimi (ph), the U.N. envoy on Friday, made reference of a possibility of civil war. How much concern should there be on the part of the coalition now that that becomes a reality at some point soon?
WILLIAM COHEN, FMR. SECY. OF DEFENSE: Well, I think there's genuine concern about that. There's something of a catch-22 facing the coalition forces. On the one hand, they have to establish security and stability, but to do that, there also has to be the form of political legitimacy. They are attempting to do that with a handover of power by the end of June or the 1st of July. But that political legitimacy as such must represent the rule of law, the rule by the majority, but protection for the rights of the minority. Unless that political legitimacy is able to establish that rule of law, is seen as establishing it, they won't be able to maintain security.
So the two are locked you can't have security without political legitimacy; you won't have political legitimacy without security. So the two are entwined right now.
So I think we also have to distinguish that even though there's a handover of the political power as such to the Iraqi people in the form -- whether it comes by caucus or some modification of caucuses, the American forces, the coalition forces, are going to have to stay in significant numbers. So the security provided by the coalition forces will remain. Internally, as far as police are concerns, that's what's going to be the really challenge for the Iraqi people.
HEMMER: You well know that already there are many who suggest this handover of power in the summertime is in name only and title only. How does the coalition, how does the U.S. fend off critics that say this is not the way they wanted it to go, or expected it to go when this plan was laid out several months ago?
COHEN: Well, I think that's one of the reasons why the United States asked the United Nations to become involved, to meet with Ayatollah Al Sistani to see if there couldn't be some kind of a compromise brokered between the caucuses, which were favored by the United States, and the direct elections, which are favored by the Ayatollah Sistani.
And I think the U.N. can play a major role in helping to provide some kind of a bridge between what Sistani would like to have and what the United States has proposed. That's going to be the real challenge between now and June, in order to indicate that political power, at least temporarily, in the form of some kind of provisional government is going to be established until such time as there can be direct elections.
HEMMER: Let me try and take it a step deeper here. If you read "The New York Times" this morning, there's a story out of Iraq that talks about a coalition official saying that this is a rush job, a band-aid on a situation that really needs surgery, and not just a tourniquet or a band-aid to stop the bleeding. Boy, where do you go from here, if that's the way they are seeing it on the inside in Baghdad is true.
COHEN: I think there has to be an absolute commitment on the part of the United States and the coalition forces that will be joined by -- are being joined by Japanese forces, South Korean forces, but the international community, that we are all there for the long haul. Any indication that there's going to be change on the part of the United States and its allies, in terms of weakening support for creating at least the institutions for a Democratic form of government, I think that would descend into a chaotic situation very quickly.
So staying power is going to be critical, and the president and Democratic challengers have to make that very clear, that there's going to be no change in that policy.
HEMMER: One final thought if I could here. You consistently talk about a consensus and how critical you believe that is, between all parties involved, in order to go forward, and do it successfully, and safer than it has been. How far, or how close do you believe it is in Iraq right now from reaching that consensus?
COHEN: It's hard for me to stay stepping back objectively. I think that we're going to see an intensification of the violence leading up to the end of June and the handover of power. I think it's going to really challenge the commitment on the part of the coalition forces, too, quote, stay that course, but we have to do that if we're going to maintain stability in Iraq with the hope that it will spread through much of the Gulf region.
HEMMER: William Cohen, former defense secretary, now head of Cohen group in D.C. Great to see you, as always.
COHEN: See you, Bill. HEMMER: We'll talk again.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Aired February 16, 2004 - 08:39 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: As the violence in Iraq continues without let-up, it raises questions about whether or not conditions will be safe enough to hand over power to Iraqis in a few months. The weekend brought a deadly and sophisticated guerrilla attack on a police station in Fallujah that was guarded by Iraqis. Twenty were dead. Insurgents freed dozens of prisoners. There are persistent questions about the possibility that Iraq may fall into civil war.
Former secretary of defense William Cohen our guest this morning live in D.C.
Great to have you back here. And good morning to you.
I have got a number of questions for you. Let's see how many we get through. Alaktar Brahimi (ph), the U.N. envoy on Friday, made reference of a possibility of civil war. How much concern should there be on the part of the coalition now that that becomes a reality at some point soon?
WILLIAM COHEN, FMR. SECY. OF DEFENSE: Well, I think there's genuine concern about that. There's something of a catch-22 facing the coalition forces. On the one hand, they have to establish security and stability, but to do that, there also has to be the form of political legitimacy. They are attempting to do that with a handover of power by the end of June or the 1st of July. But that political legitimacy as such must represent the rule of law, the rule by the majority, but protection for the rights of the minority. Unless that political legitimacy is able to establish that rule of law, is seen as establishing it, they won't be able to maintain security.
So the two are locked you can't have security without political legitimacy; you won't have political legitimacy without security. So the two are entwined right now.
So I think we also have to distinguish that even though there's a handover of the political power as such to the Iraqi people in the form -- whether it comes by caucus or some modification of caucuses, the American forces, the coalition forces, are going to have to stay in significant numbers. So the security provided by the coalition forces will remain. Internally, as far as police are concerns, that's what's going to be the really challenge for the Iraqi people.
HEMMER: You well know that already there are many who suggest this handover of power in the summertime is in name only and title only. How does the coalition, how does the U.S. fend off critics that say this is not the way they wanted it to go, or expected it to go when this plan was laid out several months ago?
COHEN: Well, I think that's one of the reasons why the United States asked the United Nations to become involved, to meet with Ayatollah Al Sistani to see if there couldn't be some kind of a compromise brokered between the caucuses, which were favored by the United States, and the direct elections, which are favored by the Ayatollah Sistani.
And I think the U.N. can play a major role in helping to provide some kind of a bridge between what Sistani would like to have and what the United States has proposed. That's going to be the real challenge between now and June, in order to indicate that political power, at least temporarily, in the form of some kind of provisional government is going to be established until such time as there can be direct elections.
HEMMER: Let me try and take it a step deeper here. If you read "The New York Times" this morning, there's a story out of Iraq that talks about a coalition official saying that this is a rush job, a band-aid on a situation that really needs surgery, and not just a tourniquet or a band-aid to stop the bleeding. Boy, where do you go from here, if that's the way they are seeing it on the inside in Baghdad is true.
COHEN: I think there has to be an absolute commitment on the part of the United States and the coalition forces that will be joined by -- are being joined by Japanese forces, South Korean forces, but the international community, that we are all there for the long haul. Any indication that there's going to be change on the part of the United States and its allies, in terms of weakening support for creating at least the institutions for a Democratic form of government, I think that would descend into a chaotic situation very quickly.
So staying power is going to be critical, and the president and Democratic challengers have to make that very clear, that there's going to be no change in that policy.
HEMMER: One final thought if I could here. You consistently talk about a consensus and how critical you believe that is, between all parties involved, in order to go forward, and do it successfully, and safer than it has been. How far, or how close do you believe it is in Iraq right now from reaching that consensus?
COHEN: It's hard for me to stay stepping back objectively. I think that we're going to see an intensification of the violence leading up to the end of June and the handover of power. I think it's going to really challenge the commitment on the part of the coalition forces, too, quote, stay that course, but we have to do that if we're going to maintain stability in Iraq with the hope that it will spread through much of the Gulf region.
HEMMER: William Cohen, former defense secretary, now head of Cohen group in D.C. Great to see you, as always.
COHEN: See you, Bill. HEMMER: We'll talk again.
TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
