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American Morning

Democratic Front-Runner Savoring Victory in Wisconsin Primary

Aired February 18, 2004 - 07:33   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's talk politics now. John Kerry says, hey, a win is a win and the Democratic front runner is savoring his victory in the Wisconsin primary, even if it was closer than expected. John Edwards, meanwhile, is spoiling for a showdown on Super Tuesday.
Joining us this morning from Washington with his morning after take on developments in Wisconsin is CNN's political contributor, Ron Brownstein -- nice to see you, Ron, as always.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Thanks for being with us.

You know, it's interesting when you hear, of course, both sides, John Kerry saying hey, a win is a win, and Senator Edwards saying well, we were closer than everybody thought but still came in second, didn't win.

So give me a sense of if you think John Edwards actually has time to catch John Kerry. Is it at all possible?

BROWNSTEIN: It's very difficult at this point. Look, Wisconsin showed us something that we already know, which is that where John Edwards has time to bore in on a state and really introduce himself to voters, he's a very effective competitor, especially for support from independents, moderates and voters who are primarily concerned about the economy. He did very well with all of those groups.

But he has too big problems going forward. One is that the calendar does not really allow the kind of intensive retail attention that he devoted to Wisconsin and South Carolina before that. He's got to run in 10 big states in two weeks, including New York, California and Ohio. He simply won't have the time to devote to any one of them that he did in Wisconsin.

And, secondly, the reality is with all of that, John Kerry still got more votes in Wisconsin. He's still propelled by the sense that he is the best candidate against George Bush. He dominated among voters who said electability was their top concern.

After a while, second place finishes are less like moral victories than they are defeats.

O'BRIEN: Yes, it's just a second place finish, isn't it? Let's talk a little bit about Howard Dean. He had said earlier on, as you well know, I have to win in Wisconsin. I'm going to win big in Wisconsin. It didn't happen. He came in third.

Let's listen to a little bit of what he had to say in his concession speech.

It's coming, Ron.

There it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will change the Democratic Party. We will change America. And we will change the White House. Thank you very much for your help. Let's fight on, on Wisconsin, on Wisconsin, keep up the fight for a better America. Never give up. Never give up. Never give up. Thank you very much.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Ron, do you have a sense at all in his tone that actually he is giving up, at least this part of the race?

BROWNSTEIN: Let me offer a maxim here. If the principal question people are asking about you is whether and when you're going to drop out of the race, the answer almost doesn't matter, because by definition you've already been marginalized as a factor.

Certainly, you get the sense from that that he is going to leave the race. I don't know one way or the other. He's sent so many mixed signals. But the fact is that he could only come in a distant third in Wisconsin, a state where he had led, which was very fertile terrain for him. He could not carry even liberal voters or those who said they were very opposed to the war in Iraq. He could stay in. He could go out. Either way, he's not likely to be much of a factor in the result.

O'BRIEN: Well, you don't think so? What kind of an impact could it have on John Kerry and Senator Edwards if he stays in or goes out?

BROWNSTEIN: Well...

O'BRIEN: I mean you pick one of those scenarios and tell me.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, I think that there's no reason to assume that his vote disproportionately flows to either of them. It's not as if John Kerry or John Edwards has a particular hold on where he, where the Dean voters go. And, also, frankly, it's not clear that there is an anti-Kerry vote. You know, what it takes for someone to turn around a race like this midstream is a big portion of the party that is disaffected with the front runner.

We're not seeing that right now, Soledad. One of the characteristics that Kerry has had going for him is the breadth of his support. Eighty percent of voters in the exit poll in Wisconsin last night said that no matter who they voted for, they would be satisfied with Kerry as the nominee. The most obvious opening for Edwards, blue collar voters receptive to his tough on trade message. But that gets harder, because organized labor, the AFL-CIO, is going to be endorsing John Kerry on Thursday. And Kerry has moved enough on trade that he ran even, according to the exit poll, with those in Wisconsin who said trade cost their state jobs.

So, John Edwards is a very good candidate, a lot of energy. He draws support, but the window is closing on him.

O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein joining us this morning for the day after assessment.

You can read his article in the "L.A. Times" this morning, as well.

Nice to see you, Ron.

Thanks.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

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Aired February 18, 2004 - 07:33   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's talk politics now. John Kerry says, hey, a win is a win and the Democratic front runner is savoring his victory in the Wisconsin primary, even if it was closer than expected. John Edwards, meanwhile, is spoiling for a showdown on Super Tuesday.
Joining us this morning from Washington with his morning after take on developments in Wisconsin is CNN's political contributor, Ron Brownstein -- nice to see you, Ron, as always.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Good morning, Soledad.

O'BRIEN: Thanks for being with us.

You know, it's interesting when you hear, of course, both sides, John Kerry saying hey, a win is a win, and Senator Edwards saying well, we were closer than everybody thought but still came in second, didn't win.

So give me a sense of if you think John Edwards actually has time to catch John Kerry. Is it at all possible?

BROWNSTEIN: It's very difficult at this point. Look, Wisconsin showed us something that we already know, which is that where John Edwards has time to bore in on a state and really introduce himself to voters, he's a very effective competitor, especially for support from independents, moderates and voters who are primarily concerned about the economy. He did very well with all of those groups.

But he has too big problems going forward. One is that the calendar does not really allow the kind of intensive retail attention that he devoted to Wisconsin and South Carolina before that. He's got to run in 10 big states in two weeks, including New York, California and Ohio. He simply won't have the time to devote to any one of them that he did in Wisconsin.

And, secondly, the reality is with all of that, John Kerry still got more votes in Wisconsin. He's still propelled by the sense that he is the best candidate against George Bush. He dominated among voters who said electability was their top concern.

After a while, second place finishes are less like moral victories than they are defeats.

O'BRIEN: Yes, it's just a second place finish, isn't it? Let's talk a little bit about Howard Dean. He had said earlier on, as you well know, I have to win in Wisconsin. I'm going to win big in Wisconsin. It didn't happen. He came in third.

Let's listen to a little bit of what he had to say in his concession speech.

It's coming, Ron.

There it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. HOWARD DEAN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will change the Democratic Party. We will change America. And we will change the White House. Thank you very much for your help. Let's fight on, on Wisconsin, on Wisconsin, keep up the fight for a better America. Never give up. Never give up. Never give up. Thank you very much.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'BRIEN: Ron, do you have a sense at all in his tone that actually he is giving up, at least this part of the race?

BROWNSTEIN: Let me offer a maxim here. If the principal question people are asking about you is whether and when you're going to drop out of the race, the answer almost doesn't matter, because by definition you've already been marginalized as a factor.

Certainly, you get the sense from that that he is going to leave the race. I don't know one way or the other. He's sent so many mixed signals. But the fact is that he could only come in a distant third in Wisconsin, a state where he had led, which was very fertile terrain for him. He could not carry even liberal voters or those who said they were very opposed to the war in Iraq. He could stay in. He could go out. Either way, he's not likely to be much of a factor in the result.

O'BRIEN: Well, you don't think so? What kind of an impact could it have on John Kerry and Senator Edwards if he stays in or goes out?

BROWNSTEIN: Well...

O'BRIEN: I mean you pick one of those scenarios and tell me.

BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, I think that there's no reason to assume that his vote disproportionately flows to either of them. It's not as if John Kerry or John Edwards has a particular hold on where he, where the Dean voters go. And, also, frankly, it's not clear that there is an anti-Kerry vote. You know, what it takes for someone to turn around a race like this midstream is a big portion of the party that is disaffected with the front runner.

We're not seeing that right now, Soledad. One of the characteristics that Kerry has had going for him is the breadth of his support. Eighty percent of voters in the exit poll in Wisconsin last night said that no matter who they voted for, they would be satisfied with Kerry as the nominee. The most obvious opening for Edwards, blue collar voters receptive to his tough on trade message. But that gets harder, because organized labor, the AFL-CIO, is going to be endorsing John Kerry on Thursday. And Kerry has moved enough on trade that he ran even, according to the exit poll, with those in Wisconsin who said trade cost their state jobs.

So, John Edwards is a very good candidate, a lot of energy. He draws support, but the window is closing on him.

O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein joining us this morning for the day after assessment.

You can read his article in the "L.A. Times" this morning, as well.

Nice to see you, Ron.

Thanks.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com




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