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American Morning

America Votes 2004

Aired February 19, 2004 - 07:09   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: To politics now this morning. And now that he's pulled out of the race, Howard Dean is not saying if he'll endorse either the front-runner, John Kerry, or John Edwards for the Democratic nomination.
Kerry campaigned yesterday in the state of Ohio. Today he's in Washington, where he'll pick up the endorsement of the AFL/CIO, representing about 13 million workers across the country.

As the Kerry and Edwards campaigns get ready for what is, in effect, now a two-man battle, a new poll suggests that either of them would defeat the president if the election were held today.

Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, live in Boston this morning to look closer at these numbers.

Bill -- good morning to you up there in the Northeast.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: Look at the numbers for John Kerry, up 12 points on President Bush. Where does he get this bounce in this polling?

SCHNEIDER: He gets the bounce because President Bush is having some problems out there. He's having problems in Iraq. He's having problems on the budget. He's having problems accounting for his military service. And, in particular, the jobs issue.

You've had a month of Democrats hammering this president. He had one opportunity to get back at the Democrats, his State of the Union address, which by most agreement was not a very successful effort to lay out his program, his agenda. It was very partisan and very defensive.

So, the president really hasn't begun this campaign yet. It's been Democrats, Democrats, Democrats. He's taken a lot of hits, and that is the reason why John Kerry is running 12 points ahead -- a very big margin and one worrisome for the White House.

HEMMER: That explains Kerry. What explains John Edwards, back to the polling numbers, a 10-point lead at this point over the president?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you know, Kerry's claim is electability. And if you look, Edwards looks just as electable as Kerry does. They both have a lead over President Bush. The answer is it's all about President Bush. The election is a referendum on Bush. And these figures suggest right now it doesn't make a lot of difference which candidate the Democrats put up.

They're going to be arguing about which one of them is more electable. We're not seeing a big difference now. Kerry is saying he has experience. He's been in the military. He's been around national and international affairs. Edwards is probably going to make the case that he's more electable because he comes from modest origins. He wasn't born to wealth and privilege. He made his own way in the world. He's a success story more than John Kerry.

So, Democrats are going to have to make up their minds based on which one can beat Bush more easily. But our polling shows it doesn't make a lot of difference right now.

HEMMER: Meanwhile, at this point, approval ratings are still relatively strong: 51 percent for the president. The White House is probably buoyed a little bit by these numbers we're seeing here.

In addition, Howard Dean yesterday dropped out, essentially ending his campaign. Listen to how he phrased how he will go forward, at least today anyway. Here's Howard Dean.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN (D), FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will not run as an Independent or a third-party candidate, and I urge my supporters not to be tempted to support any effort by another candidate. The bottom line is that we must beat George W. Bush in November, whatever it takes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: So, Howard Dean is on record. Who benefits now, Edwards or Kerry, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: You know, that's not clear. We looked in Wisconsin and found that Dean lost the majority of the people who said they once supported him, but they went about equally to Kerry and Edwards. You might think that Dean supporters would go to Edwards, because they both ran as outsiders -- people running against the Washington establishment, and John Kerry looks like the Washington establishment. But Dean supporters were mostly on the left of the Democratic Party, and Kerry is a little bit to the left of John Edwards on most issues.

So, it looks like it's a wash; that his supporters will divide about equally between Kerry and Edwards, unless he endorses somebody, and he's not inclined to do that right now.

HEMMER: Bill, thanks. Bill Schneider in Boston this morning. We'll talk many times. Thank you, Bill. Great to see you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.






Aired February 19, 2004 - 07:09   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: To politics now this morning. And now that he's pulled out of the race, Howard Dean is not saying if he'll endorse either the front-runner, John Kerry, or John Edwards for the Democratic nomination.
Kerry campaigned yesterday in the state of Ohio. Today he's in Washington, where he'll pick up the endorsement of the AFL/CIO, representing about 13 million workers across the country.

As the Kerry and Edwards campaigns get ready for what is, in effect, now a two-man battle, a new poll suggests that either of them would defeat the president if the election were held today.

Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, live in Boston this morning to look closer at these numbers.

Bill -- good morning to you up there in the Northeast.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: Look at the numbers for John Kerry, up 12 points on President Bush. Where does he get this bounce in this polling?

SCHNEIDER: He gets the bounce because President Bush is having some problems out there. He's having problems in Iraq. He's having problems on the budget. He's having problems accounting for his military service. And, in particular, the jobs issue.

You've had a month of Democrats hammering this president. He had one opportunity to get back at the Democrats, his State of the Union address, which by most agreement was not a very successful effort to lay out his program, his agenda. It was very partisan and very defensive.

So, the president really hasn't begun this campaign yet. It's been Democrats, Democrats, Democrats. He's taken a lot of hits, and that is the reason why John Kerry is running 12 points ahead -- a very big margin and one worrisome for the White House.

HEMMER: That explains Kerry. What explains John Edwards, back to the polling numbers, a 10-point lead at this point over the president?

SCHNEIDER: Well, you know, Kerry's claim is electability. And if you look, Edwards looks just as electable as Kerry does. They both have a lead over President Bush. The answer is it's all about President Bush. The election is a referendum on Bush. And these figures suggest right now it doesn't make a lot of difference which candidate the Democrats put up.

They're going to be arguing about which one of them is more electable. We're not seeing a big difference now. Kerry is saying he has experience. He's been in the military. He's been around national and international affairs. Edwards is probably going to make the case that he's more electable because he comes from modest origins. He wasn't born to wealth and privilege. He made his own way in the world. He's a success story more than John Kerry.

So, Democrats are going to have to make up their minds based on which one can beat Bush more easily. But our polling shows it doesn't make a lot of difference right now.

HEMMER: Meanwhile, at this point, approval ratings are still relatively strong: 51 percent for the president. The White House is probably buoyed a little bit by these numbers we're seeing here.

In addition, Howard Dean yesterday dropped out, essentially ending his campaign. Listen to how he phrased how he will go forward, at least today anyway. Here's Howard Dean.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN (D), FORMER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I will not run as an Independent or a third-party candidate, and I urge my supporters not to be tempted to support any effort by another candidate. The bottom line is that we must beat George W. Bush in November, whatever it takes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEMMER: So, Howard Dean is on record. Who benefits now, Edwards or Kerry, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: You know, that's not clear. We looked in Wisconsin and found that Dean lost the majority of the people who said they once supported him, but they went about equally to Kerry and Edwards. You might think that Dean supporters would go to Edwards, because they both ran as outsiders -- people running against the Washington establishment, and John Kerry looks like the Washington establishment. But Dean supporters were mostly on the left of the Democratic Party, and Kerry is a little bit to the left of John Edwards on most issues.

So, it looks like it's a wash; that his supporters will divide about equally between Kerry and Edwards, unless he endorses somebody, and he's not inclined to do that right now.

HEMMER: Bill, thanks. Bill Schneider in Boston this morning. We'll talk many times. Thank you, Bill. Great to see you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.