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American Morning
Latest Developments in Race for Democratic Presidential Nomination
Aired February 19, 2004 - 08:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Turning now to the public presidential race, where there is a first. According to a new CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, it finds that either John Kerry or John Edwards would beat President Bush in a hypothetical one-on-one match up if the election were held today. Kerry tops the president 55 percent to 43 percent. Edwards leads Mr. Bush by 10 percentage points, 54 to 44 percent.
Today, Senator Kerry will pick up the endorsement of the AFL-CIO in Washington. Kerry, who didn't plan to travel over the next two days, now has events in New York and in Georgia on Saturday. An aide said that the schedule changed because Kerry needs to hit as many states as possible. Kerry's campaign allowed him to be seen playing guitar on his plane last night. It was an attempt to present Mr. Kerry, Senator Kerry, rather, as relaxed and unconcerned, maybe, about the race's changing dynamics.
John Edwards holding an event here in New York City in about an hour. Then it's off to Georgia for more events. Senator Edwards tells CNN that he's going to continue to focus on trade, an issue that he credits for his stronger than expected showing in Wisconsin.
Now that Howard Dean is out of the race, what could it mean for Kerry, Edwards and President Bush?
David Gergen has advised presidents from both parties.
He's now an editor-at-large for "U.S. News & World Report" and a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.
David Gergen joins us from Watertown, Massachusetts.
Nice to see you, David, as always.
Thanks for being with us.
DAVID GERGEN, FORMER WHITE HOUSE ADVISER, EDITOR-AT-LARGE, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": Thank you.
It's good to see you, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Thank you very much.
Let's first talk about this new poll. Senator Kerry certainly has been relying a lot, as he stumps, on his ability to beat Bush. And that clearly was an issue for voters. But when you look at the numbers for Senator Edwards, Edwards beating the president 54 percent to 44 percent, are you surprised by that? What do you make of these numbers?
GERGEN: I was surprised. And it's important to understand that those Edwards numbers, that that survey was actually taken before Wisconsin. And it doesn't show the Wisconsin effect, if you'd like, hasn't yet shown up in the John Edwards numbers.
For the Democrats, those are energizing numbers because they show that either candidate, of course, could win by 10 at this point. I do think it's -- they should be taken with caution because typically at this stage the opposition party, because it has the stage to itself, because it has the microphone to itself, does get a lift for its candidate. You see that, you see a candidate on the other side, the out candidate, go forward, and they often don't and often lose the race. Just ask, say, President Mondale or President Dukakis or President Dole. All of them were ahead at the early stages.
There is something, I have to say, though, that is different about -- from the previous races, and that is, yes, the Democrats have gotten a lift from their own campaign and the winning quality of the candidates like Kerry and Edwards. But there's also this other phenomenon happening, that is, while the Democrats are rising, the president himself is suffering a drop, and he's off balance. I don't think he's as formidable as he usually is on the stump. He, he's trying to get back into fighting form. I imagine he will.
But your poll, for example, shows that on his credibility, which goes right to the heart of his leadership, his credibility has come down 15 points in the last few months. And his, of course, his approval ratings are down to the low 50s, high 40s now in many polls. So they, the White House has to be concerned about its getting off the defensive, getting on the offensive, to turn this into what I think is going to be a brawl in the fall.
O'BRIEN: Well, then, let's take a look at those numbers that you were just mentioning there.
GERGEN: Sure.
O'BRIEN: Spring 2002, 77 percent, in fact, said that Mr. Bush was honest and trustworthy. That number down now to 55 percent. Sixty-one percent, when you look at John Kerry, say John Kerry is honest and trustworthy.
So when you say the administration is concerned, just how worried at this point should they be? I mean we do have a lot of time before the national election.
GERGEN: There is a lot of time, but I don't think it's any accident that the president is already going into semi-campaign mode. You know, in the White House, you would prefer to keep the president out of the fray as long as you can to let him be "presidential," above the fray and not getting scarred up, not getting down into the arena where you can get all sort of bloodied. And they need to get him in early now. This campaign is, the national campaign is starting much earlier than it ordinarily does because of the erosion at the White House and because of the surge by the Democrats.
I would have to tell you that the underlying fundamentals continue to favor President Bush in the fall. There's another survey out, for example, that Zogby poll, that shows in the typical Democratic states, it's very close. But in the typical Republican states, the president has a very healthy lead. That means the president can go in and compete very easily in those typical Democratic states and it could be, and as I say, it's going to be a real tussle.
O'BRIEN: How does the president go ahead and bash his opponents -- or maybe bash is a bad word -- but undermine his opponent while remaining presidential and doing the work of the presidency at the same time?
GERGEN: Well, ordinarily in this situation you allow your surrogates to do some of the "dirty work," if you would. Republicans will seize the moment here as soon as they know who the Democratic nominee is. They'll seize the moment to try to paint that Democratic nominee as as far to the left as they can, as far out of the mainstream as they can. And they'll do that through advertising.
One new change this year, and, because of the campaign finance laws. When the president runs a campaign ad, he actually has to have his own voice on the ad advertisement saying this was for his campaign. That is probably going to change the tone of presidential ads. It's very difficult to imagine, for example, the ad that was used by the Bush elder campaign, by Lee Atwater against Michael Dukakis, back in 1988, the Willie Horton ad, one of the most famous ads in American politics. It's extremely difficult to believe that George Bush, Sr. would have ever put his name on that ad.
So I think we're not going to see that kind of advertising this time, the daisy ad that President Johnson used against Barry Goldwater, another infamous ad, if you would like, in American politics. That wouldn't be used in this kind of campaign.
So Republicans are going to have to find other voices as why -- see, what the Republicans want to do is to bring the Democrat down to the president's level and while simultaneously raising up the president. And that's going to be their two, two-pronged strategy.
O'BRIEN: It'll be interesting to see what some of those ads look like.
GERGEN: Sure.
O'BRIEN: David Gergen joining us this morning.
Thanks a lot.
GERGEN: Thank you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Nomination>
Aired February 19, 2004 - 08:06 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Turning now to the public presidential race, where there is a first. According to a new CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll, it finds that either John Kerry or John Edwards would beat President Bush in a hypothetical one-on-one match up if the election were held today. Kerry tops the president 55 percent to 43 percent. Edwards leads Mr. Bush by 10 percentage points, 54 to 44 percent.
Today, Senator Kerry will pick up the endorsement of the AFL-CIO in Washington. Kerry, who didn't plan to travel over the next two days, now has events in New York and in Georgia on Saturday. An aide said that the schedule changed because Kerry needs to hit as many states as possible. Kerry's campaign allowed him to be seen playing guitar on his plane last night. It was an attempt to present Mr. Kerry, Senator Kerry, rather, as relaxed and unconcerned, maybe, about the race's changing dynamics.
John Edwards holding an event here in New York City in about an hour. Then it's off to Georgia for more events. Senator Edwards tells CNN that he's going to continue to focus on trade, an issue that he credits for his stronger than expected showing in Wisconsin.
Now that Howard Dean is out of the race, what could it mean for Kerry, Edwards and President Bush?
David Gergen has advised presidents from both parties.
He's now an editor-at-large for "U.S. News & World Report" and a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.
David Gergen joins us from Watertown, Massachusetts.
Nice to see you, David, as always.
Thanks for being with us.
DAVID GERGEN, FORMER WHITE HOUSE ADVISER, EDITOR-AT-LARGE, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": Thank you.
It's good to see you, Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Thank you very much.
Let's first talk about this new poll. Senator Kerry certainly has been relying a lot, as he stumps, on his ability to beat Bush. And that clearly was an issue for voters. But when you look at the numbers for Senator Edwards, Edwards beating the president 54 percent to 44 percent, are you surprised by that? What do you make of these numbers?
GERGEN: I was surprised. And it's important to understand that those Edwards numbers, that that survey was actually taken before Wisconsin. And it doesn't show the Wisconsin effect, if you'd like, hasn't yet shown up in the John Edwards numbers.
For the Democrats, those are energizing numbers because they show that either candidate, of course, could win by 10 at this point. I do think it's -- they should be taken with caution because typically at this stage the opposition party, because it has the stage to itself, because it has the microphone to itself, does get a lift for its candidate. You see that, you see a candidate on the other side, the out candidate, go forward, and they often don't and often lose the race. Just ask, say, President Mondale or President Dukakis or President Dole. All of them were ahead at the early stages.
There is something, I have to say, though, that is different about -- from the previous races, and that is, yes, the Democrats have gotten a lift from their own campaign and the winning quality of the candidates like Kerry and Edwards. But there's also this other phenomenon happening, that is, while the Democrats are rising, the president himself is suffering a drop, and he's off balance. I don't think he's as formidable as he usually is on the stump. He, he's trying to get back into fighting form. I imagine he will.
But your poll, for example, shows that on his credibility, which goes right to the heart of his leadership, his credibility has come down 15 points in the last few months. And his, of course, his approval ratings are down to the low 50s, high 40s now in many polls. So they, the White House has to be concerned about its getting off the defensive, getting on the offensive, to turn this into what I think is going to be a brawl in the fall.
O'BRIEN: Well, then, let's take a look at those numbers that you were just mentioning there.
GERGEN: Sure.
O'BRIEN: Spring 2002, 77 percent, in fact, said that Mr. Bush was honest and trustworthy. That number down now to 55 percent. Sixty-one percent, when you look at John Kerry, say John Kerry is honest and trustworthy.
So when you say the administration is concerned, just how worried at this point should they be? I mean we do have a lot of time before the national election.
GERGEN: There is a lot of time, but I don't think it's any accident that the president is already going into semi-campaign mode. You know, in the White House, you would prefer to keep the president out of the fray as long as you can to let him be "presidential," above the fray and not getting scarred up, not getting down into the arena where you can get all sort of bloodied. And they need to get him in early now. This campaign is, the national campaign is starting much earlier than it ordinarily does because of the erosion at the White House and because of the surge by the Democrats.
I would have to tell you that the underlying fundamentals continue to favor President Bush in the fall. There's another survey out, for example, that Zogby poll, that shows in the typical Democratic states, it's very close. But in the typical Republican states, the president has a very healthy lead. That means the president can go in and compete very easily in those typical Democratic states and it could be, and as I say, it's going to be a real tussle.
O'BRIEN: How does the president go ahead and bash his opponents -- or maybe bash is a bad word -- but undermine his opponent while remaining presidential and doing the work of the presidency at the same time?
GERGEN: Well, ordinarily in this situation you allow your surrogates to do some of the "dirty work," if you would. Republicans will seize the moment here as soon as they know who the Democratic nominee is. They'll seize the moment to try to paint that Democratic nominee as as far to the left as they can, as far out of the mainstream as they can. And they'll do that through advertising.
One new change this year, and, because of the campaign finance laws. When the president runs a campaign ad, he actually has to have his own voice on the ad advertisement saying this was for his campaign. That is probably going to change the tone of presidential ads. It's very difficult to imagine, for example, the ad that was used by the Bush elder campaign, by Lee Atwater against Michael Dukakis, back in 1988, the Willie Horton ad, one of the most famous ads in American politics. It's extremely difficult to believe that George Bush, Sr. would have ever put his name on that ad.
So I think we're not going to see that kind of advertising this time, the daisy ad that President Johnson used against Barry Goldwater, another infamous ad, if you would like, in American politics. That wouldn't be used in this kind of campaign.
So Republicans are going to have to find other voices as why -- see, what the Republicans want to do is to bring the Democrat down to the president's level and while simultaneously raising up the president. And that's going to be their two, two-pronged strategy.
O'BRIEN: It'll be interesting to see what some of those ads look like.
GERGEN: Sure.
O'BRIEN: David Gergen joining us this morning.
Thanks a lot.
GERGEN: Thank you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com
Nomination>
