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American Morning

America Votes 2004

Aired February 20, 2004 - 07:16   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: How will economic issues affect the race between Kerry and Edwards, and also the eventual race against President Bush in November?
With more on that now, CNN's political contributor Ron Brownstein joins us this morning from Washington.

Nice to see you, Ron, as always. Thanks a lot.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Good morning Soledad.

O'BRIEN: You know, we just heard in Kelly's package what Senator Kerry had to stay. He was ridiculing the president on those revised job numbers that the White House put out, and he said it doesn't take fuzzy math to count to zero. What the president actually had said was that 9/11 hurt the economy, that corporate scandals hurt the economy, that the march to war hurt the economy.

So, the question is: How big of a role do you think the economy is going to play in not only what happens in the run-up to the election, but also the national election?

BROWNSTEIN: Big. I mean, clearly this is not 1992 where the economy is all national security is more important than it was for President Bush's father, but the economy is and always is a big issue.

The daunting prospect really, Soledad, for the president was that even if the original estimate was right, even if they could have created the amount of jobs they talked about, the four-year total for President Bush would be about zero compared to almost 23 million new jobs in the eight years under Bill Clinton.

He is at risk, and I think as he backs off his estimate, they underscore how much at risk they are of becoming the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs over his term. And that is already changing the landscape of campaign 2004. We're seeing much more focus from the Democrats on the Rust Belt states where there's been a loss of jobs, especially manufacturing jobs, less on the South and the border states.

O'BRIEN: A new poll that's out from the University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research says this: That 58 percent of people disapprove of the president's handling of the economy, 40 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove of the overall performance. That actually matches the same number that approve of the performance.

The economic approval for the president has never been strong in his tenure. What do you think the White House has to do to change or hone their message?

BROWNSTEIN: That's a very nerve-racking number. There was a poll that came out yesterday in New Hampshire, another swing state that leans Republican, that was also at a 41 percent approval on the economy.

One thing I think the White House is going to focus on -- and it has been -- is on the overall numbers. Growth overall has picked back up in the second half of 2003. The stock market has been rising as well, but the job growth is what's lagging.

I think one of the things we're going to see in this 2004 election is kind of an intriguing measure of how people assess how the economy is doing. More people are in the stock market than ever before. Over half of Americans own stock, at least through their retirement plans, and that is looking good. On the other hand, the job market, which is probably the principal indicator that many people look at, is not good. As we said, he could have the net loss of jobs over his term.

So, I think the White House is going to try to accentuate the numbers that are positive. The risk is that if you go too far in that direction, you seem out of touch with people who are concerned.

O'BRIEN: John Edwards seems to have really hit a nerve with his message of jobs and NAFTA, but exactly at the same time it's Senator Kerry who got the backing of the AFL-CIO, not Senator Edwards. Does this essentially mean -- that big endorsement means it's over for Senator Edwards?

BROWNSTEIN: It's hard for Senator Edwards, I mean, particularly on this front. One thing that we have seen is in the states where Senator Edwards has competed -- Oklahoma, South Carolina, Wisconsin, places like that, even Missouri -- he has done very well with voters focused on the economy. His principal concern is the economy. That may be a little bit of a warning sign to Senator Kerry that he does not have a message that is honed sharply enough on economic concern.

But, look, you saw John Sweeney say that Senator Kerry would not sign a trade deal that did not protect workers and the environment. What better validator does Senator Kerry have than Sweeney and James Hoffa and so forth, when John Edwards is out there around the country trying to make an issue of their trade records?

O'BRIEN: Yes, exactly. Ron Brownstein joining us this morning. Ron, nice to see you. Thanks.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.






Aired February 20, 2004 - 07:16   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: How will economic issues affect the race between Kerry and Edwards, and also the eventual race against President Bush in November?
With more on that now, CNN's political contributor Ron Brownstein joins us this morning from Washington.

Nice to see you, Ron, as always. Thanks a lot.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Good morning Soledad.

O'BRIEN: You know, we just heard in Kelly's package what Senator Kerry had to stay. He was ridiculing the president on those revised job numbers that the White House put out, and he said it doesn't take fuzzy math to count to zero. What the president actually had said was that 9/11 hurt the economy, that corporate scandals hurt the economy, that the march to war hurt the economy.

So, the question is: How big of a role do you think the economy is going to play in not only what happens in the run-up to the election, but also the national election?

BROWNSTEIN: Big. I mean, clearly this is not 1992 where the economy is all national security is more important than it was for President Bush's father, but the economy is and always is a big issue.

The daunting prospect really, Soledad, for the president was that even if the original estimate was right, even if they could have created the amount of jobs they talked about, the four-year total for President Bush would be about zero compared to almost 23 million new jobs in the eight years under Bill Clinton.

He is at risk, and I think as he backs off his estimate, they underscore how much at risk they are of becoming the first president since Herbert Hoover to have a net loss of jobs over his term. And that is already changing the landscape of campaign 2004. We're seeing much more focus from the Democrats on the Rust Belt states where there's been a loss of jobs, especially manufacturing jobs, less on the South and the border states.

O'BRIEN: A new poll that's out from the University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research says this: That 58 percent of people disapprove of the president's handling of the economy, 40 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove of the overall performance. That actually matches the same number that approve of the performance.

The economic approval for the president has never been strong in his tenure. What do you think the White House has to do to change or hone their message?

BROWNSTEIN: That's a very nerve-racking number. There was a poll that came out yesterday in New Hampshire, another swing state that leans Republican, that was also at a 41 percent approval on the economy.

One thing I think the White House is going to focus on -- and it has been -- is on the overall numbers. Growth overall has picked back up in the second half of 2003. The stock market has been rising as well, but the job growth is what's lagging.

I think one of the things we're going to see in this 2004 election is kind of an intriguing measure of how people assess how the economy is doing. More people are in the stock market than ever before. Over half of Americans own stock, at least through their retirement plans, and that is looking good. On the other hand, the job market, which is probably the principal indicator that many people look at, is not good. As we said, he could have the net loss of jobs over his term.

So, I think the White House is going to try to accentuate the numbers that are positive. The risk is that if you go too far in that direction, you seem out of touch with people who are concerned.

O'BRIEN: John Edwards seems to have really hit a nerve with his message of jobs and NAFTA, but exactly at the same time it's Senator Kerry who got the backing of the AFL-CIO, not Senator Edwards. Does this essentially mean -- that big endorsement means it's over for Senator Edwards?

BROWNSTEIN: It's hard for Senator Edwards, I mean, particularly on this front. One thing that we have seen is in the states where Senator Edwards has competed -- Oklahoma, South Carolina, Wisconsin, places like that, even Missouri -- he has done very well with voters focused on the economy. His principal concern is the economy. That may be a little bit of a warning sign to Senator Kerry that he does not have a message that is honed sharply enough on economic concern.

But, look, you saw John Sweeney say that Senator Kerry would not sign a trade deal that did not protect workers and the environment. What better validator does Senator Kerry have than Sweeney and James Hoffa and so forth, when John Edwards is out there around the country trying to make an issue of their trade records?

O'BRIEN: Yes, exactly. Ron Brownstein joining us this morning. Ron, nice to see you. Thanks.

BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.

TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com.