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Hurricane Ivan Heads Toward Jamaica; Questions Being Raised About Authenticity of Some Documents Relating to Bush's National Guard Service

Aired September 10, 2004 - 07:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: A giant hurtling through Jamaica, Hurricane Ivan bringing category-four winds. Where will it go after that?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: The vast majority of the computer models tell us that, in all likelihood, it's coming our way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: One more time for Florida, where they're putting up plywood, packing up cars and getting out.

And were some of the documents used to question the president's National Guard Service really forgeries? A whole new twist on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

COLLINS: Or not. Hi. I'm Heidi Collins. And this is my Miles O'Brien. So glad that you're here.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: It's good to be here. Thank you very much.

We got a lot stories we're following this morning for you, busy morning on this Friday. For the first time in 2 1/2 years, Al Qaeda is threatening the U.S. again in a taped message by Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant. Now we're going to take a look at that, also talk about where the U.S. and its allies are looking for Bin Laden now.

COLLINS: Also, on one day before the third anniversary of 9/11, is Washington getting ready to change the way America gathers evidence? It's a lot of momentum to push through the 9/11 recommendations. We'll of course look at that, and what could be standing in the way.

Jack Cafferty is also off today, but Andy Borowitz is here, and he is ready with the e-mails today, so we'll get to that in just a moment.

For now, though, we want to check on the stories now in the news with Daryn Kagan at the CNN Center. Daryn, good morning to you.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Heidi. Let's start overseas. Police in Indonesia are searching this hour for a suspect in connection with the bombing outside the Australian embassy. At least nine people died in the explosion. More than 180 others were injured. Officials say at least one suicide car bomber is responsible. They are blaming a local terrorist group with ties to Al Qaeda.

Hundreds of Russians are now protesting outside the American and British embassies in Moscow. The rallies come a week after more than 300 people were killed in a standoff at a middle school in the southern region. The Russians say they're protesting the U.S. government's continued policy of granting political asylum to Chechen separatists, who are blamed for that siege.

In just a little over an hour, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will remember the 9/11 attacks. He'll do that by sitting down for breakfast with members of Congress he was eating breakfast with on that day three years ago. And then shortly after noon today, Rumsfeld will give a progress report on the global war on terror before the National Press Club Association in Washington.

A pro-gun control group bought a full-page ad in "The Washington Post" and "New York Times" today. They're drawing attention to the ban on assault weapons. It will expire on Monday. Those ads show Osama bin Laden holding an assault rifle, with a banner that reads, "Terrorists of 9/11 Can Hardly Wait for 9/13." The ads are sponsored by the Brady campaign to prevent gun violence.

A lot more news ahead. Right now, back to New York.

COLLINS: All right, Daryn, that's for sure.

In fact, we're going to move right along now to Hurricane Ivan. It has a calling card for Jamaica today. The powerful category-four hurricane is expected to make landfall there tonight, its effects already being felt, though. The storm has sustained winds of nearly 150 miles an hour. Ivan is blamed for at least 23 deaths in the Caribbean, 17 of those on the island of Grenada. Officials say Ivan will hit Jamaica and Cuba before making its way to the Florida Keys, and possibly up Florida's West Coast.

Max Mayfield is tracking the storm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. He's with us once again.

Mr. Mayfield, good to see you again. I know you must be weary there, you and your team. Why don't you give us an update right now? Tell us where Ivan is and its strength right now.

MAX MAYFIELD, DIR., NATL. HURRICANE CTR.: OK. It's a couple hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica now. It's still a category-four hurricane with sustained stained winds estimated at 145 miles per hour. We're still getting reconnaissance aircraft reports in, and the pressure is still low; the winds are still up. This is going to have a big impact on Jamaica today and tonight, and then the Cayman Islands, and parts of the Cuba tomorrow.

O'BRIEN: If possible, Ivan will strengthen before it comes ashore in Jamaica?

MAYFIELD: We think we'll probably see some fluctuations. It might even go through a little weakening trend here now, but the upper-level environment is very favorable. The sea surf temperatures are very, very warm in that northwestern Caribbean. And we really think that if it does lose any strength this morning, it will probably regain it before it gets to Jamaica. So they need to be prepared for a category-four hurricane, and rush all the preparations to completion to protect lives and property.

O'BRIEN: Of course we're thinking about what happened as Ivan went across Grenada. Ninety percent of the structures on that island affected. Jamaica is an island of 2.7 million people. Where can they all go to seek shelter?

MAYFIELD: Well, they do have plans, and they have shelters in churches and schools, you know, like the United States does, too. And they're certainly the getting word out. We've been talking to the (INAUDIBLE) down there actually for days now. So they were struck by a very powerful hurricane, Gilbert, back in 1988, and they know what this can do, and it's going to be everything -- the storm surge, the wave action, the winds, the rainfall. We just hope that, you know, all the people do get to shelter in time.

O'BRIEN: You've already begun the evacuation in the Florida Keys. That's a particularly susceptible spot and not a lot ways out of there, just one road out. How concerned are you about that evacuation going smoothly?

MAYFIELD: Well, you know, the Florida Keys are so unique. Their emergency manager and the tourism officials have actually been here several days now. They actually got the non-residents out yesterday. The recreational vehicles were asked to be taken out yesterday. This morning, they have already implemented a mandatory evacuation for the lower keys, from Key West up to the Seven Miles (ph) Bridge. Then they'll do the middle keys this afternoon, and after that, the upper keys. So they're going to have a phased evacuation. And, you know, anytime, as you say, we have something threatening the Keys, that's a real concern to us.

O'BRIEN: All right, next forecast update in about an hour's time, right?

MAYFIELD: Yes, sir.

O'BRIEN: All right, Max Mayfield with the Hurricane Center, thanks very much.

MAYFIELD: Thank you. (WEATHER REPORT)

COLLINS: We want to talk a little bit more now about the evacuation of the Keys. And Captain Jenny Bell Thomson with the Monroe County Sheriff's Office is joining us now from the Key Largo area.

Captain, thanks for being with us this morning.

As we know, mandatory evacuation for residents there started just a few minutes ago. Let me ask you first about how they're going. How many people will try to get out on that one single road out of the Keys?

CAPT. JENNY BELL THOMSON, MONROE CO. SHERIFF'S OFFICE: Well, actually, we do have two roads that can get people out.

COLLINS: Great.

THOMSON: We have Cardstown Road (ph) and U.S. 1. Traffic is flowing very smoothly right now. That's one of the reasons why we do the phased evacuations. Each area of the keys has an opportunity to get out of the way of the other area. So we do it in three phases. Right now, you can see behind me, things are going very smoothly. This is pretty heavy traffic for us this early in the morning. So we're very gratified to see this number of people evacuating, and we want to encourage everyone to evacuate for this storm.

COLLINS: Well, you do bring up a good point. I know it might be a little bit difficult to hear with that traffic behind you. But you do bring up a good point, about how many people are actually going to leave. How seriously will they take this, and will they actually go, as you're telling them to?

THOMSON: Well, I think people are taking this storm very seriously. People here have not forgotten Andrew in 1992. And then, of course, with Charley and Frances having done so much damage in other parts of the state, I think that our residents are taking the storm seriously and they're being very responsible about evacuating.

Now our population is about 75,000 to 80,000, and I don't know if you can hear me...

COLLINS: Go right ahead.

THOMSON: And we hope that the majority of those people evacuate.

COLLINS: As you mentioned, this is the third hurricane in just two months. How are people holding out?

THOMSON: Well, you know, we've been lucky, and every time when Charley passes us by, and when Frances passed us by, you know, everybody's breathing a sigh of relief, but I also believe that people understand, that, you know, we can't be lucky forever. And so -- you know, I've heard a lot of people from down here saying they're going to leave the state altogether for this particular storm, and I think that's a good thing.

As far as where we tell people to go, that is a difficult question to answer. You know, people need to pay close attention to the weather updates, and make those choices early on.

COLLINS: All right. Well, we certainly appreciate your time this morning. We know you'll be busy down there. Captain Jenny Bell Thomson from the Monroe County Sheriff's Office. Thanks again, Captain -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Shifting now to politics. This morning, questions are being raised about how authentic some documents are relating to President Bush's National Guard Service. Those documents appeared Wednesday in a "60 Minutes II" report on CBS, which raised doubts about whether the president fulfilled his commitment to the Guard.

Several media organizations, including "The Washington Post," report document experts question whether the typeface of the documents could have been produced by typewriters available at the time. CBS standing by the story.

Suzanne Malveaux at the White House trying to help us sort this one out -- Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, this is just another twist in a complicated story. As you said before, of course, these are newly discovered documents that call into question President Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard about 30 years ago, whether or not he received special treatment or he completed his requirements. These were documents that were signed by his superior, Lieutenant Colonel Jerry Killian at the time. It first aired on "60 Minutes II." Of course, now questions over the authenticity of those documents.

"The Washington Post" and other news organizations saying the analysis of these documents say several could have been generated either by computer or word processing, not by a typewriter that would have been used during the Vietnam War era.

Now the widow as well of Killian also backed up this claim, saying she says that these documents are forgeries. Yesterday, CBS released a statement, saying they stand by their reporting, they stand by their sourcing, and "The Washington Post" saying that one of those sources was Killian's immediate supervisor.

Now CBS is also conducting its own internal investigation on the matter. The big question here, of course, Miles, what does this all mean when it comes to the campaign? Already the Democratic National Committee, as well as Republicans, are gearing up for a fight. Expect to see competing ads exploiting this issue in the weeks to come -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: So, Suzanne, we're left with either someone forged some documents or someone is falsely claiming they're forged documents, either way, not a very good situation. Is the White House going to say anything about it today, do you think MALVEAUX: Well, we don't get any indication at all that the president is going to address this. We have heard from his surrogates that have come forward, saying that this is nonsense, that he completed his service admirably.

But both of these men, of course, with the questions around their service some 30 years ago, we do not expect that they're going to address this directly. Both of these campaigns, both of these leaders and candidates, instead turning their focus on domestic issue, on the economy, on health care. President Bush today traveling to West Virginia and Ohio where we expect to hear his domestic agenda -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, but the debate will go on with the surrogates, of course.

Suzanne Malveaux at the White House, thank you very much.

COLLINS: And still to come this morning, more campaign coverage. One candidate has a clear lead in the polls now, but that may affect reporters more than the men running for the office. Bill Schneider joins us on that.

O'BRIEN: Also ahead, full speed ahead, or slow and steady? the fight over when to implement those 9/11 reforms?

COLLINS: And on the eve of 9/11's third anniversary, a new tape from Al Qaeda. The question remains, where is Osama Bin Laden? Just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

O'BRIEN: On the eve of the third anniversary of 9/11, there are new threats from Al Qaeda. Osama Bin Laden's top lieutenant appears in a tape airing on the Arab television network Al-Jazeera. Ayman Al Zawahiri threatens Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Senior international correspondent Nic Robertson has been watching that tape very carefully and its translation, and he joins us now from the CNN Center.

Good morning, Nic.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Miles.

This tape essentially saying the United States is losing the battle in Iraq, losing the battle in Afghanistan. This is the first on-camera message from Al Qaeda leaders in over 2 1/2 years.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): Apparently timed for the anniversary of September 11, the al Qaeda message was delivered to Arabic-language news channel Al Jazeera. It is the first on-camera statement from the terror group in almost two and a half years, and had a familiar ring. AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI, AL QAEDA LEADER (through translator): The defeat of America in Iraq and Afghanistan has become just a matter of time, with God's help. Americans in both countries are between two fires. If they carry on, they will bleed to death, and if they go out, they lose everything.

ROBERTSON: Specifically, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, claims holy warriors have U.S. troops hiding in their, quote, "trenches" in south and eastern Afghanistan and awaiting the battle in Iraq.

AL-ZAWAHIRI (through translator): In Iraq, the mujahedeen turned America's plan upside down after the weak appearance of the men of the transitional government.

ROBERTSON: This reference to transitional government in Iraq perhaps the best indication this video was recorded within the last few months. The claims of U.S. troops hiding in their trenches in Afghanistan does not appear to match what this correspondent saw on a recent trip to the region. U.S. troops do go out on daily patrols. And particularly in eastern Afghanistan, close to Pakistan, they face attack from what security sources describe as large groups of Taliban fighters.

Perhaps the greatest message of this tape is that it was released at all.

PETER BERGEN, TERRORISM ANALYST: This tape sort of rather thumbs its nose at the United States. We've had it three years now, we haven't found either Bin Laden or Ayman Al Zawahiri, the guys who really planned 9/11, and they remain in the game.

ROBERTSON: As with previous Al Qaeda releases, there is little to indicate where Zawahiri, or more importantly, Osama Bin Laden may be hiding.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON: Well, the focus for intelligence officials now is to figure out the chain of custody, how those tapes get from Al Qaeda leaders to Al-Jazeera. That's one of the strongest ways they can figure out how Osama, how Ayman Al Zawahiri evading capture -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Nic, at this point, is there reason that the two men, Bin Laden and Al Zawahiri, are together? .

ROBERTSON: It's not clear. There's very little -- the bottom line is there's very little known about their whereabouts. Do they live in the same building? And are they in the same village? Are they even in the same country? Is one in Afghanistan, one Pakistan. The best guess is, both in Pakistan, likely close together, but there's no hard information on this at all -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: And the fact we're actually seeing a videotape, this is unusual. Really, most of what we've been seeing so far have been audio tapes post-9/11? ROBERTSON: Absolutely. What Al Qaeda seems to do is try and peak around the anniversary of September 11th. Throughout the year, they release audio tapes, they put statements on the Internet. Then if you look, last year around the September 11th, the year before, they had video releases, just pictures of Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden, this year going a step beyond that, getting this on-camera message, if you will, but clearly try and feed. It's a propaganda campaign. They're psychological operations. They're calling out to their followers. And they try and paint this message around September 11th. It has great significance for them, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Nic Robertson in Atlanta, thank you very much -- Heidi.

COLLINS: Former President Clinton is starting to get back on his feet. His office released a statement yesterday, saying he's in good spirits and has been able to take short walks in the hallway outside of his room. The former president had quadruple-bypass surgery on Monday to correct severely blocked arteries to his heart.

O'BRIEN: Still to come on the program, a new king in the Magic Kingdom. Andy Serwer's "Minding Your Business." He's got some big news on the future of the land of the mouse.

Stay with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLLINS: Its CEO has been at center of a lot of controversy. Now Disney is set to make an important announcement. Andy Serwer is back with us.

Hello to you. Welcome back.

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Hello. Thank you.

COLLINS: Your minding our business this morning. So Michael Eisner saying, I'm going to leave.

SERWER: This according to "The Wall Street Journal," and other published reports. Michael Eisner, obviously the center of a lot of controversy over the past couple years, is set to step down in September of -- 2006. OK, so it's two years from now. That's the end of his contract. He's telling the board of the Walt Disney Company that he'll be leaving then. That will mark his 20th anniversary at the helm of the mouse house.

And you may remember, of course, the first decade went very well. The second decade didn't go quite so well. But he'll be 62 -- he is 62 years old and maybe Bob Iger will be taking over at that point.

Letter to the Disney board, "My affection for Disney will never retire. I can only conclude by telling you what I'm going to do next. I'm going to Disneyland." OK.

COLLINS: That's so creative.

SERWER: That gets points on the tacky meter. We'll have to ask Andy Borowitz about that.

Yesterday, the markets were a little bit mixed. We can check that out. The Dow was down. Techs rebounded a little bit, but only because they had been beaten down so badly over the past couple days and weeks. That's my assessment of that. Stocks were up for the most part, however. And this morning futures are mixed. Nasdaq down 6.7 percent year to date, not a good thing.

COLLINS: We're still glad to have you back, anyway.

SERWER: Well, thank you. And I hope I can get something going on Wall Street this morning.

ANDY BOROWITZ, "THE BOROWITZ REPORT": It was a very touching letter, I though.

SERWER: You did? Sarcasm will get you everywhere.

O'BRIEN: It wasn't a marketing thing or anything, was it? Yes.

COLLINS: Not at all.

O'BRIEN: Jack Cafferty is still trying to plow through his six months of vacation, and so Andy Borowitz is here to talk about e-mail.

BOROWITZ: It's good to be here. Now, if you're like me, you're probably sick and tired of all the political ads on TV, and it's only September, folks.

So right now, when you flip on the tube, you hear the words "swift boat" more often than the words "erectile dysfunction."

Now we have a group calling themselves Texans for Truth, say that George Bush was the where's Waldo of the Alabama National Guard.

Now, I form my own political action group called Sarcastic Commentators for Truth, and I approve this message, which is, Cigarettes ads and hard liquor ads have been banned from TV. But political ads may be even more toxic.

So our very loaded question to you is, "Should political advertising on television be banned?" Nada, no more. e-mail us now at am@CNN.com.

COLLINS: I love when the questions are loaded.

BOROWITZ: This is so loaded. Jack would be proud.

O'BRIEN: It's a little early to be loaded.

BOROWITZ: Not for me.

O'BRIEN: But the question is, how are you going to know who to hate?

BOROWITZ: Oh, you know, I think with the candidates we've got, it's so easy to tell who to hate. They just radiate hatable things.

SERWER: Well, more billboards would probably be a good thing.

O'BRIEN: You think.

BOROWITZ: They you go. But you know, in other countries, they don't have political ads.

O'BRIEN: Somehow they get by.

SERWER: It's good for the television networks, though, isn't it, Andy?

BOROWITZ: Oops.

O'BRIEN: I've been thinking about that my paycheck here since you've been talking. I don't know about you.

COLLINS: All right, Andy, thanks so much for that.

And still to come this morning, your Friday dose of "90-Second Pop."

Must-see TV is back, minus a few friends. Can "Joey" survive the competition all by his lonesome, or will he need the Donald's help? "The Apprentice" returns with an even tougher batch of Trump wannabes, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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Aired September 10, 2004 - 07:00   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: A giant hurtling through Jamaica, Hurricane Ivan bringing category-four winds. Where will it go after that?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. JEB BUSH (R), FLORIDA: The vast majority of the computer models tell us that, in all likelihood, it's coming our way.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLLINS: One more time for Florida, where they're putting up plywood, packing up cars and getting out.

And were some of the documents used to question the president's National Guard Service really forgeries? A whole new twist on this AMERICAN MORNING.

ANNOUNCER: From the CNN Broadcast Center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.

COLLINS: Or not. Hi. I'm Heidi Collins. And this is my Miles O'Brien. So glad that you're here.

MILES O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: It's good to be here. Thank you very much.

We got a lot stories we're following this morning for you, busy morning on this Friday. For the first time in 2 1/2 years, Al Qaeda is threatening the U.S. again in a taped message by Osama bin Laden's top lieutenant. Now we're going to take a look at that, also talk about where the U.S. and its allies are looking for Bin Laden now.

COLLINS: Also, on one day before the third anniversary of 9/11, is Washington getting ready to change the way America gathers evidence? It's a lot of momentum to push through the 9/11 recommendations. We'll of course look at that, and what could be standing in the way.

Jack Cafferty is also off today, but Andy Borowitz is here, and he is ready with the e-mails today, so we'll get to that in just a moment.

For now, though, we want to check on the stories now in the news with Daryn Kagan at the CNN Center. Daryn, good morning to you.

DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Heidi. Let's start overseas. Police in Indonesia are searching this hour for a suspect in connection with the bombing outside the Australian embassy. At least nine people died in the explosion. More than 180 others were injured. Officials say at least one suicide car bomber is responsible. They are blaming a local terrorist group with ties to Al Qaeda.

Hundreds of Russians are now protesting outside the American and British embassies in Moscow. The rallies come a week after more than 300 people were killed in a standoff at a middle school in the southern region. The Russians say they're protesting the U.S. government's continued policy of granting political asylum to Chechen separatists, who are blamed for that siege.

In just a little over an hour, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will remember the 9/11 attacks. He'll do that by sitting down for breakfast with members of Congress he was eating breakfast with on that day three years ago. And then shortly after noon today, Rumsfeld will give a progress report on the global war on terror before the National Press Club Association in Washington.

A pro-gun control group bought a full-page ad in "The Washington Post" and "New York Times" today. They're drawing attention to the ban on assault weapons. It will expire on Monday. Those ads show Osama bin Laden holding an assault rifle, with a banner that reads, "Terrorists of 9/11 Can Hardly Wait for 9/13." The ads are sponsored by the Brady campaign to prevent gun violence.

A lot more news ahead. Right now, back to New York.

COLLINS: All right, Daryn, that's for sure.

In fact, we're going to move right along now to Hurricane Ivan. It has a calling card for Jamaica today. The powerful category-four hurricane is expected to make landfall there tonight, its effects already being felt, though. The storm has sustained winds of nearly 150 miles an hour. Ivan is blamed for at least 23 deaths in the Caribbean, 17 of those on the island of Grenada. Officials say Ivan will hit Jamaica and Cuba before making its way to the Florida Keys, and possibly up Florida's West Coast.

Max Mayfield is tracking the storm at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. He's with us once again.

Mr. Mayfield, good to see you again. I know you must be weary there, you and your team. Why don't you give us an update right now? Tell us where Ivan is and its strength right now.

MAX MAYFIELD, DIR., NATL. HURRICANE CTR.: OK. It's a couple hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica now. It's still a category-four hurricane with sustained stained winds estimated at 145 miles per hour. We're still getting reconnaissance aircraft reports in, and the pressure is still low; the winds are still up. This is going to have a big impact on Jamaica today and tonight, and then the Cayman Islands, and parts of the Cuba tomorrow.

O'BRIEN: If possible, Ivan will strengthen before it comes ashore in Jamaica?

MAYFIELD: We think we'll probably see some fluctuations. It might even go through a little weakening trend here now, but the upper-level environment is very favorable. The sea surf temperatures are very, very warm in that northwestern Caribbean. And we really think that if it does lose any strength this morning, it will probably regain it before it gets to Jamaica. So they need to be prepared for a category-four hurricane, and rush all the preparations to completion to protect lives and property.

O'BRIEN: Of course we're thinking about what happened as Ivan went across Grenada. Ninety percent of the structures on that island affected. Jamaica is an island of 2.7 million people. Where can they all go to seek shelter?

MAYFIELD: Well, they do have plans, and they have shelters in churches and schools, you know, like the United States does, too. And they're certainly the getting word out. We've been talking to the (INAUDIBLE) down there actually for days now. So they were struck by a very powerful hurricane, Gilbert, back in 1988, and they know what this can do, and it's going to be everything -- the storm surge, the wave action, the winds, the rainfall. We just hope that, you know, all the people do get to shelter in time.

O'BRIEN: You've already begun the evacuation in the Florida Keys. That's a particularly susceptible spot and not a lot ways out of there, just one road out. How concerned are you about that evacuation going smoothly?

MAYFIELD: Well, you know, the Florida Keys are so unique. Their emergency manager and the tourism officials have actually been here several days now. They actually got the non-residents out yesterday. The recreational vehicles were asked to be taken out yesterday. This morning, they have already implemented a mandatory evacuation for the lower keys, from Key West up to the Seven Miles (ph) Bridge. Then they'll do the middle keys this afternoon, and after that, the upper keys. So they're going to have a phased evacuation. And, you know, anytime, as you say, we have something threatening the Keys, that's a real concern to us.

O'BRIEN: All right, next forecast update in about an hour's time, right?

MAYFIELD: Yes, sir.

O'BRIEN: All right, Max Mayfield with the Hurricane Center, thanks very much.

MAYFIELD: Thank you. (WEATHER REPORT)

COLLINS: We want to talk a little bit more now about the evacuation of the Keys. And Captain Jenny Bell Thomson with the Monroe County Sheriff's Office is joining us now from the Key Largo area.

Captain, thanks for being with us this morning.

As we know, mandatory evacuation for residents there started just a few minutes ago. Let me ask you first about how they're going. How many people will try to get out on that one single road out of the Keys?

CAPT. JENNY BELL THOMSON, MONROE CO. SHERIFF'S OFFICE: Well, actually, we do have two roads that can get people out.

COLLINS: Great.

THOMSON: We have Cardstown Road (ph) and U.S. 1. Traffic is flowing very smoothly right now. That's one of the reasons why we do the phased evacuations. Each area of the keys has an opportunity to get out of the way of the other area. So we do it in three phases. Right now, you can see behind me, things are going very smoothly. This is pretty heavy traffic for us this early in the morning. So we're very gratified to see this number of people evacuating, and we want to encourage everyone to evacuate for this storm.

COLLINS: Well, you do bring up a good point. I know it might be a little bit difficult to hear with that traffic behind you. But you do bring up a good point, about how many people are actually going to leave. How seriously will they take this, and will they actually go, as you're telling them to?

THOMSON: Well, I think people are taking this storm very seriously. People here have not forgotten Andrew in 1992. And then, of course, with Charley and Frances having done so much damage in other parts of the state, I think that our residents are taking the storm seriously and they're being very responsible about evacuating.

Now our population is about 75,000 to 80,000, and I don't know if you can hear me...

COLLINS: Go right ahead.

THOMSON: And we hope that the majority of those people evacuate.

COLLINS: As you mentioned, this is the third hurricane in just two months. How are people holding out?

THOMSON: Well, you know, we've been lucky, and every time when Charley passes us by, and when Frances passed us by, you know, everybody's breathing a sigh of relief, but I also believe that people understand, that, you know, we can't be lucky forever. And so -- you know, I've heard a lot of people from down here saying they're going to leave the state altogether for this particular storm, and I think that's a good thing.

As far as where we tell people to go, that is a difficult question to answer. You know, people need to pay close attention to the weather updates, and make those choices early on.

COLLINS: All right. Well, we certainly appreciate your time this morning. We know you'll be busy down there. Captain Jenny Bell Thomson from the Monroe County Sheriff's Office. Thanks again, Captain -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Shifting now to politics. This morning, questions are being raised about how authentic some documents are relating to President Bush's National Guard Service. Those documents appeared Wednesday in a "60 Minutes II" report on CBS, which raised doubts about whether the president fulfilled his commitment to the Guard.

Several media organizations, including "The Washington Post," report document experts question whether the typeface of the documents could have been produced by typewriters available at the time. CBS standing by the story.

Suzanne Malveaux at the White House trying to help us sort this one out -- Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Miles, this is just another twist in a complicated story. As you said before, of course, these are newly discovered documents that call into question President Bush's service in the Texas Air National Guard about 30 years ago, whether or not he received special treatment or he completed his requirements. These were documents that were signed by his superior, Lieutenant Colonel Jerry Killian at the time. It first aired on "60 Minutes II." Of course, now questions over the authenticity of those documents.

"The Washington Post" and other news organizations saying the analysis of these documents say several could have been generated either by computer or word processing, not by a typewriter that would have been used during the Vietnam War era.

Now the widow as well of Killian also backed up this claim, saying she says that these documents are forgeries. Yesterday, CBS released a statement, saying they stand by their reporting, they stand by their sourcing, and "The Washington Post" saying that one of those sources was Killian's immediate supervisor.

Now CBS is also conducting its own internal investigation on the matter. The big question here, of course, Miles, what does this all mean when it comes to the campaign? Already the Democratic National Committee, as well as Republicans, are gearing up for a fight. Expect to see competing ads exploiting this issue in the weeks to come -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: So, Suzanne, we're left with either someone forged some documents or someone is falsely claiming they're forged documents, either way, not a very good situation. Is the White House going to say anything about it today, do you think MALVEAUX: Well, we don't get any indication at all that the president is going to address this. We have heard from his surrogates that have come forward, saying that this is nonsense, that he completed his service admirably.

But both of these men, of course, with the questions around their service some 30 years ago, we do not expect that they're going to address this directly. Both of these campaigns, both of these leaders and candidates, instead turning their focus on domestic issue, on the economy, on health care. President Bush today traveling to West Virginia and Ohio where we expect to hear his domestic agenda -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: All right, but the debate will go on with the surrogates, of course.

Suzanne Malveaux at the White House, thank you very much.

COLLINS: And still to come this morning, more campaign coverage. One candidate has a clear lead in the polls now, but that may affect reporters more than the men running for the office. Bill Schneider joins us on that.

O'BRIEN: Also ahead, full speed ahead, or slow and steady? the fight over when to implement those 9/11 reforms?

COLLINS: And on the eve of 9/11's third anniversary, a new tape from Al Qaeda. The question remains, where is Osama Bin Laden? Just ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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O'BRIEN: On the eve of the third anniversary of 9/11, there are new threats from Al Qaeda. Osama Bin Laden's top lieutenant appears in a tape airing on the Arab television network Al-Jazeera. Ayman Al Zawahiri threatens Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Senior international correspondent Nic Robertson has been watching that tape very carefully and its translation, and he joins us now from the CNN Center.

Good morning, Nic.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Miles.

This tape essentially saying the United States is losing the battle in Iraq, losing the battle in Afghanistan. This is the first on-camera message from Al Qaeda leaders in over 2 1/2 years.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice- over): Apparently timed for the anniversary of September 11, the al Qaeda message was delivered to Arabic-language news channel Al Jazeera. It is the first on-camera statement from the terror group in almost two and a half years, and had a familiar ring. AYMAN AL-ZAWAHIRI, AL QAEDA LEADER (through translator): The defeat of America in Iraq and Afghanistan has become just a matter of time, with God's help. Americans in both countries are between two fires. If they carry on, they will bleed to death, and if they go out, they lose everything.

ROBERTSON: Specifically, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, claims holy warriors have U.S. troops hiding in their, quote, "trenches" in south and eastern Afghanistan and awaiting the battle in Iraq.

AL-ZAWAHIRI (through translator): In Iraq, the mujahedeen turned America's plan upside down after the weak appearance of the men of the transitional government.

ROBERTSON: This reference to transitional government in Iraq perhaps the best indication this video was recorded within the last few months. The claims of U.S. troops hiding in their trenches in Afghanistan does not appear to match what this correspondent saw on a recent trip to the region. U.S. troops do go out on daily patrols. And particularly in eastern Afghanistan, close to Pakistan, they face attack from what security sources describe as large groups of Taliban fighters.

Perhaps the greatest message of this tape is that it was released at all.

PETER BERGEN, TERRORISM ANALYST: This tape sort of rather thumbs its nose at the United States. We've had it three years now, we haven't found either Bin Laden or Ayman Al Zawahiri, the guys who really planned 9/11, and they remain in the game.

ROBERTSON: As with previous Al Qaeda releases, there is little to indicate where Zawahiri, or more importantly, Osama Bin Laden may be hiding.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON: Well, the focus for intelligence officials now is to figure out the chain of custody, how those tapes get from Al Qaeda leaders to Al-Jazeera. That's one of the strongest ways they can figure out how Osama, how Ayman Al Zawahiri evading capture -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: Nic, at this point, is there reason that the two men, Bin Laden and Al Zawahiri, are together? .

ROBERTSON: It's not clear. There's very little -- the bottom line is there's very little known about their whereabouts. Do they live in the same building? And are they in the same village? Are they even in the same country? Is one in Afghanistan, one Pakistan. The best guess is, both in Pakistan, likely close together, but there's no hard information on this at all -- Miles.

O'BRIEN: And the fact we're actually seeing a videotape, this is unusual. Really, most of what we've been seeing so far have been audio tapes post-9/11? ROBERTSON: Absolutely. What Al Qaeda seems to do is try and peak around the anniversary of September 11th. Throughout the year, they release audio tapes, they put statements on the Internet. Then if you look, last year around the September 11th, the year before, they had video releases, just pictures of Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden, this year going a step beyond that, getting this on-camera message, if you will, but clearly try and feed. It's a propaganda campaign. They're psychological operations. They're calling out to their followers. And they try and paint this message around September 11th. It has great significance for them, Miles.

O'BRIEN: Nic Robertson in Atlanta, thank you very much -- Heidi.

COLLINS: Former President Clinton is starting to get back on his feet. His office released a statement yesterday, saying he's in good spirits and has been able to take short walks in the hallway outside of his room. The former president had quadruple-bypass surgery on Monday to correct severely blocked arteries to his heart.

O'BRIEN: Still to come on the program, a new king in the Magic Kingdom. Andy Serwer's "Minding Your Business." He's got some big news on the future of the land of the mouse.

Stay with us on AMERICAN MORNING.

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COLLINS: Its CEO has been at center of a lot of controversy. Now Disney is set to make an important announcement. Andy Serwer is back with us.

Hello to you. Welcome back.

ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Hello. Thank you.

COLLINS: Your minding our business this morning. So Michael Eisner saying, I'm going to leave.

SERWER: This according to "The Wall Street Journal," and other published reports. Michael Eisner, obviously the center of a lot of controversy over the past couple years, is set to step down in September of -- 2006. OK, so it's two years from now. That's the end of his contract. He's telling the board of the Walt Disney Company that he'll be leaving then. That will mark his 20th anniversary at the helm of the mouse house.

And you may remember, of course, the first decade went very well. The second decade didn't go quite so well. But he'll be 62 -- he is 62 years old and maybe Bob Iger will be taking over at that point.

Letter to the Disney board, "My affection for Disney will never retire. I can only conclude by telling you what I'm going to do next. I'm going to Disneyland." OK.

COLLINS: That's so creative.

SERWER: That gets points on the tacky meter. We'll have to ask Andy Borowitz about that.

Yesterday, the markets were a little bit mixed. We can check that out. The Dow was down. Techs rebounded a little bit, but only because they had been beaten down so badly over the past couple days and weeks. That's my assessment of that. Stocks were up for the most part, however. And this morning futures are mixed. Nasdaq down 6.7 percent year to date, not a good thing.

COLLINS: We're still glad to have you back, anyway.

SERWER: Well, thank you. And I hope I can get something going on Wall Street this morning.

ANDY BOROWITZ, "THE BOROWITZ REPORT": It was a very touching letter, I though.

SERWER: You did? Sarcasm will get you everywhere.

O'BRIEN: It wasn't a marketing thing or anything, was it? Yes.

COLLINS: Not at all.

O'BRIEN: Jack Cafferty is still trying to plow through his six months of vacation, and so Andy Borowitz is here to talk about e-mail.

BOROWITZ: It's good to be here. Now, if you're like me, you're probably sick and tired of all the political ads on TV, and it's only September, folks.

So right now, when you flip on the tube, you hear the words "swift boat" more often than the words "erectile dysfunction."

Now we have a group calling themselves Texans for Truth, say that George Bush was the where's Waldo of the Alabama National Guard.

Now, I form my own political action group called Sarcastic Commentators for Truth, and I approve this message, which is, Cigarettes ads and hard liquor ads have been banned from TV. But political ads may be even more toxic.

So our very loaded question to you is, "Should political advertising on television be banned?" Nada, no more. e-mail us now at am@CNN.com.

COLLINS: I love when the questions are loaded.

BOROWITZ: This is so loaded. Jack would be proud.

O'BRIEN: It's a little early to be loaded.

BOROWITZ: Not for me.

O'BRIEN: But the question is, how are you going to know who to hate?

BOROWITZ: Oh, you know, I think with the candidates we've got, it's so easy to tell who to hate. They just radiate hatable things.

SERWER: Well, more billboards would probably be a good thing.

O'BRIEN: You think.

BOROWITZ: They you go. But you know, in other countries, they don't have political ads.

O'BRIEN: Somehow they get by.

SERWER: It's good for the television networks, though, isn't it, Andy?

BOROWITZ: Oops.

O'BRIEN: I've been thinking about that my paycheck here since you've been talking. I don't know about you.

COLLINS: All right, Andy, thanks so much for that.

And still to come this morning, your Friday dose of "90-Second Pop."

Must-see TV is back, minus a few friends. Can "Joey" survive the competition all by his lonesome, or will he need the Donald's help? "The Apprentice" returns with an even tougher batch of Trump wannabes, ahead on AMERICAN MORNING.

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