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American Morning
"State of the Ballot"; "Minding Your Business"; "90-Second Pop"
Aired October 25, 2004 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. It's just exactly half past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
Tragedy yesterday for NASCAR. One of the biggest teams in the sport, Hendrick Motorsports, devastated by that deadly plane crash. We're going to talk this morning with a pit reporter who covers NASCAR to find out just what kind of an impact this could have on the sport.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: What a devastating story that is, too.
Also today, part one of our weeklong series starts today. We call it "State of the Ballot" after all of the voting problems of 2000. Some new laws now in effect to make sure the same thing does not happen again. Or will it? Some people think the new law actually may have made things worse. Have they? We'll put that question to Jeff Toobin in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: But first let's go right to Daryn Kagan. She's at the CNN center for us this morning.
Hey, Daryn, good morning.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad.
We're going to start with some world headlines. Israeli forces have launched a new incursion into southern Gaza. Troops pounded a Gaza refugee camp overnight, killing more than a dozen people. Israel says the raids are meant to stop renewed violence in that area.
Meanwhile, the Israeli parliament is beginning two-day negotiations over Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans to withdraw from Gaza. An official vote is expected tomorrow.
Another powerful aftershock rattles northern Japan this morning. Twenty-five people were killed there in three earthquakes over the weekend. Some 100,000 people are taking refuge in gymnasiums and public buildings after the quakes knocked down homes and ripped apart roads.
Here in the U.S. the FAA is investigating an emergency landing at Chicago's O'Hare Airport. A United Airlines pilot reported an engine problem last night shortly after takeoff for Brazil. This video, spot shadows, shows some flames shooting from the engine. The pilot landed the plane safely at O'Hare. The passengers are expected to resume their trip today. Also from Illinois, the governor there is seeking permission to import flu shots. Governor Rod Blagojevich says that he made a tentative agreement to purchase at least 30,000 doses of vaccine from British wholesalers. He says he'll send a letter later today to the Food and Drug Administration requesting approval.
So, see that, Soledad, you guys leave Illinois, but still that's the place where all the news keeps...
O'BRIEN: Still the governor is still working hard.
KAGAN: Yes, absolutely.
O'BRIEN: We like to see that. All right, Daryn, thanks.
KAGAN: See you in a bit.
O'BRIEN: The sprint is on with just over a week now until Americans elect a president. President Bush spent Sunday morning at his Crawford, Texas, ranch before heading to campaign stops in New Mexico. Today the president will visit Colorado and Iowa, where he plans to talk about his plan to win the war on terror. Tomorrow it's off to Wisconsin and then back to Iowa.
Senator John Kerry stumped in Florida this weekend on issues of the economy and education. Senator Kerry is campaigning in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan today. Tomorrow he'll visit Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa -- Bill.
HEMMER: A lot of travel for both men.
And this morning we start a weeklong look at the "State of the Ballot" in 2004. First up, what has changed since the election of four years ago? The Help America Vote Act signed into law by the president in 2002 was set up to prevent the chaos that occurred in Florida. But could it create even more problems? There's a lot to go through on this, this morning.
And with us is our senior legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, to explain.
Good morning to you.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning, sir.
HEMMER: One thing at a time here. In the state of Florida, let's take the issue of provisional balloting.
TOOBIN: OK.
HEMMER: The judge made a ruling last week which states what for people voting there?
TOOBIN: Yes, provisional ballots is, as I think most people may know by now, is if you show up at the polling place, you're not on the rolls for whatever reason, you can cast a paper provisional ballot, and its legitimacy is determined later.
The question is: How do you know whether to count the ballot? And the issue in Florida, as it is in several states, is, what if you are a duly registered voter but you just show up at the wrong polling place? Is that provisional ballot that you cast good to sign -- good to be counted?
Florida now says no. You've got to go to the right polling place. If you go to the wrong polling place, the ballot will not count.
HEMMER: So that's the same decision they made in Ohio, correct?
TOOBIN: Ohio has now, as the result of a decision by the Federal Court of Appeals, is in line with that decision. Michigan at the moment says the other -- goes to other way, says if you show up and you are duly registered, it doesn't matter that you go to the wrong polling place.
HEMMER: So do you know or does anyone know how many provisional ballots will be cast this election?
TOOBIN: No one knows. And think about how significant that could be, because in states where they have had provisional ballots, you've had tens of thousands cast. Suppose, and this is hardly, you know, a wild hypothetical, you've got a 5,000-vote difference between the candidates on election night, and you've got 75,000 provisional ballots uncounted. Who would concede? What candidate would concede in those certain states?
HEMMER: Did you see the front page of "USA Today" this morning?
TOOBIN: I did.
HEMMER: They predict now that they will have half as many problems this time around as in 2000. And essentially 1.9 million votes thrown out because they were punched twice or because they weren't punched at all for president. This time around they think there might a million, which is 50 percent.
TOOBIN: Very interesting. You know, people like me, we tend to focus on the problems in an election. And we're focusing on the confusion as a result. "USA Today" makes the interesting point, look, overall things are going to be better. The error rates are going to go down. And they also make the political point that they think that may help Kerry, because they say miscast ballots tend to be in minority, low-income areas, which tend to vote Democratic. If you cut the error rate, you get more of those voters to the polls.
HEMMER: One more thing here with electronic voting. A lot of this is supposed to be overtaken by the new technology to be employed. But there's a ballot out there called a "broken arrow ballot."
TOOBIN: Yes, there is.
HEMMER: Explain that to us, and why it has failed so much in, I guess, what, practice at this point?
TOOBIN: Well, this is -- one of our CNN colleagues went out just to a mall and said, try, you know, show me how this works. Five out of five people got it wrong. This ballot has been in use in the past, but it just shows it's not easy to design a ballot.
HEMMER: How many people are using that, though?
TOOBIN: It's just a few counties in Florida. But, you know, as you and I learned in Tallahassee, a few counties can make a difference.
HEMMER: Five out of five got it wrong.
TOOBIN: Five out of five.
HEMMER: It's not rocket science. Thank you, Jeff -- Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
O'BRIEN: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, it is down to the wire in the presidential race. Is there anything now that could be done that could change your vote? A look at that is up next.
HEMMER: Also, did you see this on "Saturday Night Live?" They call it live for a reason. Ashlee Simpson out of sync, though. We'll talk about that on "90-Second Pop" in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Right to Jack and the "Question of the Day." Hello.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad.
A week to go until Election Day. Still no October surprise. More negative news out of Iraq that could spell trouble for President Bush.
Meantime, Bill Clinton has climbed out of bed to try to rescue Kerry's campaign. Governor Schwarzenegger has been recruited to hit the campaign trail for President Bush later this week. Those are things we all can look forward to.
The question is this: With a week to go, is there anything that could cause to you change your vote?
Tom writes in Alma, West Virginia: "380 tons of missing Iraqi explosives is reason enough to vote against the president. That's enough to make 500 very powerful car bombs. It shows extremely poor planning. Ironically, the stuff was being guarded by the U.N. before we got there. We knew where these WMDs were."
Ed writes this: "Not unless I can get the postal service to not deliver the mail. I've already sent in my absentee ballot."
Buck in Charlottesville, Virginia: "Only if John McCain somehow managed to replace W. as the Republican candidate. Otherwise, I'll be voting against W, and I will not be voting for Mr. Kerry."
Claire writes: "I consider 380 tons of explosives gone missing on our watch, probably the most unstable country in the world, an October surprise. This president spent the entire campaign trying to make fear the reason we vote for him."
CAFFERTY: And John in Madison, Wisconsin: "Jack, what do you mean no October surprise? How much more surprised can we be? The Red Sox are up 2-zip in the World Series."
And I saw three pigs flying over my house in the formation of geese just yesterday. Am@cnn.com. Huh?
O'BRIEN: It looks like that's going to happen.
CAFFERTY: There you go.
O'BRIEN: You never know.
HEMMER: A market preview now with Andy Serwer, "Minding Your Business" now.
Oil is still up there, isn't it?
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: That's right. And that's making the futures go south this morning, Bill. Let's talk about that, and let's take a look backwards and see what happened last week, first of all, to set the stage for trading this morning.
You can see here, not a very good week with the exception of the Nasdaq boosted by eBay and Google. You remember both of those stocks on a tear. Interesting stuff here, 9757. That is a low close for the year for the Dow. And also that's down 6.7 percent year-to-date. So things getting a little weak here this fall.
And, of course, we talked about Dow 10,000 on Wall Street. They are saying that that's the magic threshold, above 10000, good for the president, below 10000 good for Senator Kerry in the presidential race. We have 250 points to make up in this last trading week before the election next week.
Let's move on to football, though, shall we, where things are looking good for Bill and Soledad, looking good for the New England Patriots right here.
HEMMER: Tell us more.
SERWER: I picked the Jets to upset the Patriots. I was wrong. I keep trying to pick the team that is playing the Patriots, because at some point I'm going to be right, just in the same way I've predicted seven out of the last five recessions. And you can see here that I did not do very well. Jack, you know, Jack and I -- well, Jack's job on this program is not to pick football games. His job is to...
CAFFERTY: Which is a good thing based on the way I'm doing. SERWER: It is. Your job is to tell it like it is.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
SERWER: And football is not your thing.
O'BRIEN: Todd is doing my picks with me.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
SERWER: Todd...
HEMMER: That's (INAUDIBLE) producer.
SERWER: Yes, well, the Vikings did not beat the Titans.
HEMMER: (INAUDIBLE) by the way.
SERWER: I missed that game. The Cowboys did win, though. I mean, the Cowboys lost, excuse me.
HEMMER: But the day you pick the Patriots to lose, you're going to look like a genius.
SERWER: I'm going to look like a genius. Thank you.
CAFFERTY: They're going to lose next week at Pittsburgh..
SERWER: OK.
HEMMER: We're waiting for that day.
SERWER: There we go. He's the expert.
CAFFERTY: I'm not an expect.
O'BRIEN: Clearly. Ask me, Andy, because I'm doing really well.
SERWER: Yes, OK, good. Well, we'll ask you on Friday.
O'BRIEN: Who are the Patriots playing?
SERWER: They're playing the Steelers.
O'BRIEN: I'll go with the Patriots.
SERWER: All right.
O'BRIEN: That's my advice, but I'm guessing.
Still to come this morning, Ashlee Simpson unplugged, why she walked off the "Saturday Night Live" stage. And what coat mean for her career? That's coming up next. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) O'BRIEN: Oh, I miss this music. It's just like old times. I'm all choked up. Good morning, guys. Welcome back, everybody. It's time for "90-Second Pop" on a Monday. The gang is all here, me included.
B.J. Sigesmund is staff editor for "US Weekly." Sarah Bernard, contributing editor for "New York" magazine. And Toure, CNN's pop culture correspondent.
Welcome, welcome, welcome.
SARAH BERNARD, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, "NEW YORK" MAGAZINE: You're welcome.
O'BRIEN: Oh, it was ugly on "SNL."
TOURE, CNN POPULAR CULTURE CORRESPONDENT: Oh!
O'BRIEN: "Saturday Night Live," Ashlee Simpson -- I think we can't even start talking until we take a look at a clip. So let's watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ASHLEE SIMPSON, SINGER (singing): On a Monday, and I'm waiting. Tuesday, I am fading...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Wait a minute. She's not singing. And then she kind of danced.
TOURE: Yes, that's nice. Good choice.
O'BRIEN: And good-bye.
TOURE: This is not plan B.
O'BRIEN: Good-bye. And then she walks off the stage.
TOURE: But the band keeps going on.
BERNARD: I know. I the thing the worst thing about...
TOURE: The band is the best. They just kept going on, like whatever.
BERNARD: I think the worst thing about this whole thing is that she blamed her band in the end.
TOURE: Oh, they were so...
BERNARD: Wasn't that just the wrong thing to do?
O'BRIEN: Well, clearly she was blitzed.
TOURE: Well...
O'BRIEN: I mean, clearly her track was coming up, she was lip- syncing.
TOURE: Right, the wrong song came up. But, I mean, this is like the video era, where if you're cute enough to be in a video you get a chance to be a star. But, like, you have no performing experience, and anybody with any experience could have made this work.
O'BRIEN: By doing what? Hemmer and I were talking about this earlier.
TOURE: Adjust in some way. I mean, she could have found...
B.J. SIGESMUND, STAFF EDITOR, "US WEEKLY": Own it.
TOURE: ... some way to own it, to work with it, to adjust, but...
BERNARD: To show that she was flexible on live TV.
SIGESMUND: Yes. What's going on? Wrong song, let's start again.
TOURE: Yes. I mean...
SIGESMUND: But instead, she just totally threw in the towel. And it shows her inexperience and lack of expertise at this. She's 19 years old. She only started performing live in the last six months.
TOURE: Yes. I mean, historically, before...
O'BRIEN: She learned a lot before this weekend.
TOURE: Before you got signed, historically, like, you performed. You've been in bands. You've been out there on stages. Now, like your video, and then you go on tour and it's the first time you've been in front of people.
BERNARD: But in terms of what this is going to do for her...
O'BRIEN: Yes, what does it do to her career?
BERNARD: You know, I don't think anybody expected that she is Barbra Streisand here, right? That she's got this amazing voice and she can just, you know, be as prepared as we thought. I think the people like her for her fashion and for her show and for the fact that she's Jessica's little underdog sister. I don't think it matters as much.
SIGESMUND: The public is fickle, though.
TOURE: Yes.
SIGESMUND: You know, and they liked her a lot. Her album debuted at No. 1 because of the show and MTV. But the public can turn on people just as fast. TOURE: She's a pet rock.
O'BRIEN: No air there, is that what you're saying?
TOURE: Yes.
O'BRIEN: All right, let's move on. Ben Affleck, new movie, "Surviving Christmas."
SIGESMUND: Oh!
O'BRIEN: I actually I thought...
SIGESMUND: You wanted to go.
O'BRIEN: No. No.
TOURE: I know why you did it.
O'BRIEN: It's way too early for Christmas movies as far as I'm concerned. He's been in some decent movies, but just not lately.
SIGESMUND: I'll tell you, Ben Affleck is clearly a nice guy, right? Has absolutely lost his box office magic. This is his fourth flop in a row. This movie opened at No. 7. It made only $4.5 million, which per screen actually did worse than "Gigli."
O'BRIEN: Oh, no!
TOURE: Whoa!
SIGESMUND: Yes, per screen it did a little bit worse than "Gigli." It is possible.
O'BRIEN: I feel sorry for him now.
SIGESMUND: It made like $1,600 per showing. This is...
O'BRIEN: You know...
SIGESMUND: I'm sorry. This is after "Gigli," plus "Paycheck," the big budgeted movie at Christmas...
BERNARD: Oh, right.
O'BRIEN: Right.
SIGESMUND: ... that did so poorly, plus earlier this year, of course, "Jersey Girl," which failed.
O'BRIEN: "Dogma" was a good movie.
BERNARD: I have a theory about this. I think that, you know, I was watching the game on Saturday and seeing him in there...
O'BRIEN: I miss your theories. Go ahead. (CROSSTALK)
BERNARD: Seeing him in the stands with Jennifer Garner, you know, the new Bennifer, I was thinking that, you know, the curse of the Bambino, right? They traded Babe Ruth to the Yankees.
TOURE: Yes.
BERNARD: I think Ben Affleck has traded his career for the Red Sox.
SIGESMUND: Well, they are doing well.
BERNARD: I think what's happened is he's made a deal with the devil that he's just going to give it up for the Red Sox.
TOURE: Don't worry. They'll lose, don't you worry there.
O'BRIEN: Oh, no!
TOURE: Yes, I'm darn right!
O'BRIEN: Sorry about that.
(CROSSTALK)
O'BRIEN: All right, before we go, let's talk about "The Swan."
BERNARD: It's so exciting.
O'BRIEN: They kind of...
BERNARD: It's starting tonight.
O'BRIEN: They got a new -- they're going in a new direction.
BERNARD: They are. Well, "The Swan" is the show where people get a whole lot of plastic surgery and then compete in the end in a Miss America-style pageant.
O'BRIEN: A pageant.
BERNARD: And what they are doing this year, they got a lot of flack for implying that plastic surgery solves all of your problems. So they are taking people who really have...
SIGESMUND: Some real problems.
BERNARD: ... have real problems, though it's more reconstructive plastic surgery. Tonight, it stars a woman named Jennifer who is 30 years old, and she was a burn victim. She lost about -- you know, 70 percent of her body was covered in burns. So they are going to fix that, as well as give her "The Swan" treatment.
SIGESMUND: I think this makes it clear why the show is so controversial, because people will see on one hand it's so exploitive. BERNARD: Yes.
SIGESMUND: How can you do this to these women? How can you parade their faults out there and then put them in a beauty pageant at the end? But at the same time, you watch it and you really feel for them. You get their stories. Oh, my gosh, I want this woman's life to get better. And that's part of the addiction of the show.
BERNARD: Toure is not a fan of the show as I remember from last season!
TOURE: I just have a difficult time watching the whole thing. It's just isn't there something just creepy about the whole thing?
SIGESMUND: Very creepy.
TOURE: I mean, even though we're helping these people, like, it just makes my skin crawl...
BERNARD: Yes, it is creepy.
TOURE: ... the whole idea. I mean, if it was a movie, you'd like, oh, no, that would never happen.
BERNARD: But next to "American Idol" it's the highest show.
TOURE: Yes.
O'BRIEN: It's always interesting. All right, you guys, as always, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Let's go back to Bill.
HEMMER: All right, in a moment here, the candidates making that last push through battleground states, eight days and counting now. What are the keys now to victory in the final week? Reports from the trail in a moment as we continue on this Monday morning of AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: This morning, Scott Peterson's double murder trial continues. His defense attorneys start this fifth day of calling witnesses after a serious blow to one theory last week.
Kimberly Osias reports this morning in California.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Nine defense witnesses so far and more to go in the double murder trial of Scott Peterson. In a case which relies heavily on experts to connect the dots, all it takes is one credible witness to poke enough holes in the prosecution's theory that Scott Peterson killed his pregnant wife, Laci, and dumped her body in the San Francisco Bay.
On the stand last week, Superior Court Judge Ricardo Cordova, a neighbor of the Petersons. He testified about a woman's summer sandals found in front of the Peterson's house. They were never collected as evidence. This supports the defense's theory of a bungled investigation. Geragos asserts the sole focus was on Peterson to the exclusion of other viable suspects.
Cordova also spoke of a stranger in the neighborhood going door to door begging for money. He believed this was a pattern for setting up a burglary.
Also last week, the prosecution's grilling of fertility expert Dr. Charles March. He said the earliest the baby could have died would have been December 29, five days after Laci went missing and Scott was under police scrutiny.
Peterson's family hoped for possible vindication.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, he was around for four days, and the police weren't looking for her. That makes us very angry.
OSIAS: But in what may have been the government's best cross- examination yet, Attorney David Harris had March on the ropes about his methodology. March used statements from some of Laci's friends to help him decide the date of conception
ROBERT TALBOT, LAW PROFESSOR: He had that witness looking defensive and confused, looking over at the jury. They looked to me like they were in a state of disbelief.
OSIAS: Also on the witness list this week, a cadaver dog handler and a Modesto police officer who walked the Peterson's dog, McKenzie, in search of clues. Testimony is expected to wrap up by week's end.
Kimberly Osias, CNN, Redwood City, California.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: Let's get a break here. In a moment, hundreds of tons of powerful explosives are missing in Iraq. What does that mean for U.S. forces there? In a moment, we will revisit that story as we continue after this.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
HEMMER: All right, good morning, everyone. 8:00 here in New York as we start a whole new week here. Good to have you along with us today.
Eight days and counting on the calendar now, about a week now. Both candidates turning most of their attention to the shrinking list of battleground states. The race so tight, we're told, one state here or there could decide all of this. But which one is the most important? Or maybe there's a handful that are more important. Carlos Watson joins in a moment us for his take on that today.
O'BRIEN: Also this morning, a mystery disappearance in Iraq. Almost 400 tons of powerful explosives gone missing. Experts are worried that they could have fallen into the wrong hands. In just a moment, we're going to talk with a spokeswoman with the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency.
HEMMER: Jack Cafferty is with us again.
O'BRIEN: Why are you laughing, Jack?
CAFFERTY: They're worried that they might have fallen into the wrong hands? Who do they think has them? The U.N. Security Council? I mean, give me a break here.
Coming up in "The Cafferty File," former President Bill Clinton turns over a new leaf, at least when it comes to his diet. And a poll that hasn't been wrong since 1956 picks next Tuesday's winner.
HEMMER: Oh, I like that, huh? Thank you, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Might have falling into the wrong hands. That's incredible.
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Aired October 25, 2004 - 07:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. It's just exactly half past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING.
Tragedy yesterday for NASCAR. One of the biggest teams in the sport, Hendrick Motorsports, devastated by that deadly plane crash. We're going to talk this morning with a pit reporter who covers NASCAR to find out just what kind of an impact this could have on the sport.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: What a devastating story that is, too.
Also today, part one of our weeklong series starts today. We call it "State of the Ballot" after all of the voting problems of 2000. Some new laws now in effect to make sure the same thing does not happen again. Or will it? Some people think the new law actually may have made things worse. Have they? We'll put that question to Jeff Toobin in a moment here.
O'BRIEN: But first let's go right to Daryn Kagan. She's at the CNN center for us this morning.
Hey, Daryn, good morning.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad.
We're going to start with some world headlines. Israeli forces have launched a new incursion into southern Gaza. Troops pounded a Gaza refugee camp overnight, killing more than a dozen people. Israel says the raids are meant to stop renewed violence in that area.
Meanwhile, the Israeli parliament is beginning two-day negotiations over Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans to withdraw from Gaza. An official vote is expected tomorrow.
Another powerful aftershock rattles northern Japan this morning. Twenty-five people were killed there in three earthquakes over the weekend. Some 100,000 people are taking refuge in gymnasiums and public buildings after the quakes knocked down homes and ripped apart roads.
Here in the U.S. the FAA is investigating an emergency landing at Chicago's O'Hare Airport. A United Airlines pilot reported an engine problem last night shortly after takeoff for Brazil. This video, spot shadows, shows some flames shooting from the engine. The pilot landed the plane safely at O'Hare. The passengers are expected to resume their trip today. Also from Illinois, the governor there is seeking permission to import flu shots. Governor Rod Blagojevich says that he made a tentative agreement to purchase at least 30,000 doses of vaccine from British wholesalers. He says he'll send a letter later today to the Food and Drug Administration requesting approval.
So, see that, Soledad, you guys leave Illinois, but still that's the place where all the news keeps...
O'BRIEN: Still the governor is still working hard.
KAGAN: Yes, absolutely.
O'BRIEN: We like to see that. All right, Daryn, thanks.
KAGAN: See you in a bit.
O'BRIEN: The sprint is on with just over a week now until Americans elect a president. President Bush spent Sunday morning at his Crawford, Texas, ranch before heading to campaign stops in New Mexico. Today the president will visit Colorado and Iowa, where he plans to talk about his plan to win the war on terror. Tomorrow it's off to Wisconsin and then back to Iowa.
Senator John Kerry stumped in Florida this weekend on issues of the economy and education. Senator Kerry is campaigning in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Michigan today. Tomorrow he'll visit Wisconsin, Nevada, New Mexico and Iowa -- Bill.
HEMMER: A lot of travel for both men.
And this morning we start a weeklong look at the "State of the Ballot" in 2004. First up, what has changed since the election of four years ago? The Help America Vote Act signed into law by the president in 2002 was set up to prevent the chaos that occurred in Florida. But could it create even more problems? There's a lot to go through on this, this morning.
And with us is our senior legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, to explain.
Good morning to you.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning, sir.
HEMMER: One thing at a time here. In the state of Florida, let's take the issue of provisional balloting.
TOOBIN: OK.
HEMMER: The judge made a ruling last week which states what for people voting there?
TOOBIN: Yes, provisional ballots is, as I think most people may know by now, is if you show up at the polling place, you're not on the rolls for whatever reason, you can cast a paper provisional ballot, and its legitimacy is determined later.
The question is: How do you know whether to count the ballot? And the issue in Florida, as it is in several states, is, what if you are a duly registered voter but you just show up at the wrong polling place? Is that provisional ballot that you cast good to sign -- good to be counted?
Florida now says no. You've got to go to the right polling place. If you go to the wrong polling place, the ballot will not count.
HEMMER: So that's the same decision they made in Ohio, correct?
TOOBIN: Ohio has now, as the result of a decision by the Federal Court of Appeals, is in line with that decision. Michigan at the moment says the other -- goes to other way, says if you show up and you are duly registered, it doesn't matter that you go to the wrong polling place.
HEMMER: So do you know or does anyone know how many provisional ballots will be cast this election?
TOOBIN: No one knows. And think about how significant that could be, because in states where they have had provisional ballots, you've had tens of thousands cast. Suppose, and this is hardly, you know, a wild hypothetical, you've got a 5,000-vote difference between the candidates on election night, and you've got 75,000 provisional ballots uncounted. Who would concede? What candidate would concede in those certain states?
HEMMER: Did you see the front page of "USA Today" this morning?
TOOBIN: I did.
HEMMER: They predict now that they will have half as many problems this time around as in 2000. And essentially 1.9 million votes thrown out because they were punched twice or because they weren't punched at all for president. This time around they think there might a million, which is 50 percent.
TOOBIN: Very interesting. You know, people like me, we tend to focus on the problems in an election. And we're focusing on the confusion as a result. "USA Today" makes the interesting point, look, overall things are going to be better. The error rates are going to go down. And they also make the political point that they think that may help Kerry, because they say miscast ballots tend to be in minority, low-income areas, which tend to vote Democratic. If you cut the error rate, you get more of those voters to the polls.
HEMMER: One more thing here with electronic voting. A lot of this is supposed to be overtaken by the new technology to be employed. But there's a ballot out there called a "broken arrow ballot."
TOOBIN: Yes, there is.
HEMMER: Explain that to us, and why it has failed so much in, I guess, what, practice at this point?
TOOBIN: Well, this is -- one of our CNN colleagues went out just to a mall and said, try, you know, show me how this works. Five out of five people got it wrong. This ballot has been in use in the past, but it just shows it's not easy to design a ballot.
HEMMER: How many people are using that, though?
TOOBIN: It's just a few counties in Florida. But, you know, as you and I learned in Tallahassee, a few counties can make a difference.
HEMMER: Five out of five got it wrong.
TOOBIN: Five out of five.
HEMMER: It's not rocket science. Thank you, Jeff -- Soledad.
(WEATHER REPORT)
O'BRIEN: Still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, it is down to the wire in the presidential race. Is there anything now that could be done that could change your vote? A look at that is up next.
HEMMER: Also, did you see this on "Saturday Night Live?" They call it live for a reason. Ashlee Simpson out of sync, though. We'll talk about that on "90-Second Pop" in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Right to Jack and the "Question of the Day." Hello.
JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Soledad.
A week to go until Election Day. Still no October surprise. More negative news out of Iraq that could spell trouble for President Bush.
Meantime, Bill Clinton has climbed out of bed to try to rescue Kerry's campaign. Governor Schwarzenegger has been recruited to hit the campaign trail for President Bush later this week. Those are things we all can look forward to.
The question is this: With a week to go, is there anything that could cause to you change your vote?
Tom writes in Alma, West Virginia: "380 tons of missing Iraqi explosives is reason enough to vote against the president. That's enough to make 500 very powerful car bombs. It shows extremely poor planning. Ironically, the stuff was being guarded by the U.N. before we got there. We knew where these WMDs were."
Ed writes this: "Not unless I can get the postal service to not deliver the mail. I've already sent in my absentee ballot."
Buck in Charlottesville, Virginia: "Only if John McCain somehow managed to replace W. as the Republican candidate. Otherwise, I'll be voting against W, and I will not be voting for Mr. Kerry."
Claire writes: "I consider 380 tons of explosives gone missing on our watch, probably the most unstable country in the world, an October surprise. This president spent the entire campaign trying to make fear the reason we vote for him."
CAFFERTY: And John in Madison, Wisconsin: "Jack, what do you mean no October surprise? How much more surprised can we be? The Red Sox are up 2-zip in the World Series."
And I saw three pigs flying over my house in the formation of geese just yesterday. Am@cnn.com. Huh?
O'BRIEN: It looks like that's going to happen.
CAFFERTY: There you go.
O'BRIEN: You never know.
HEMMER: A market preview now with Andy Serwer, "Minding Your Business" now.
Oil is still up there, isn't it?
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: That's right. And that's making the futures go south this morning, Bill. Let's talk about that, and let's take a look backwards and see what happened last week, first of all, to set the stage for trading this morning.
You can see here, not a very good week with the exception of the Nasdaq boosted by eBay and Google. You remember both of those stocks on a tear. Interesting stuff here, 9757. That is a low close for the year for the Dow. And also that's down 6.7 percent year-to-date. So things getting a little weak here this fall.
And, of course, we talked about Dow 10,000 on Wall Street. They are saying that that's the magic threshold, above 10000, good for the president, below 10000 good for Senator Kerry in the presidential race. We have 250 points to make up in this last trading week before the election next week.
Let's move on to football, though, shall we, where things are looking good for Bill and Soledad, looking good for the New England Patriots right here.
HEMMER: Tell us more.
SERWER: I picked the Jets to upset the Patriots. I was wrong. I keep trying to pick the team that is playing the Patriots, because at some point I'm going to be right, just in the same way I've predicted seven out of the last five recessions. And you can see here that I did not do very well. Jack, you know, Jack and I -- well, Jack's job on this program is not to pick football games. His job is to...
CAFFERTY: Which is a good thing based on the way I'm doing. SERWER: It is. Your job is to tell it like it is.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
SERWER: And football is not your thing.
O'BRIEN: Todd is doing my picks with me.
CAFFERTY: Yes.
SERWER: Todd...
HEMMER: That's (INAUDIBLE) producer.
SERWER: Yes, well, the Vikings did not beat the Titans.
HEMMER: (INAUDIBLE) by the way.
SERWER: I missed that game. The Cowboys did win, though. I mean, the Cowboys lost, excuse me.
HEMMER: But the day you pick the Patriots to lose, you're going to look like a genius.
SERWER: I'm going to look like a genius. Thank you.
CAFFERTY: They're going to lose next week at Pittsburgh..
SERWER: OK.
HEMMER: We're waiting for that day.
SERWER: There we go. He's the expert.
CAFFERTY: I'm not an expect.
O'BRIEN: Clearly. Ask me, Andy, because I'm doing really well.
SERWER: Yes, OK, good. Well, we'll ask you on Friday.
O'BRIEN: Who are the Patriots playing?
SERWER: They're playing the Steelers.
O'BRIEN: I'll go with the Patriots.
SERWER: All right.
O'BRIEN: That's my advice, but I'm guessing.
Still to come this morning, Ashlee Simpson unplugged, why she walked off the "Saturday Night Live" stage. And what coat mean for her career? That's coming up next. Stay with us. You're watching AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) O'BRIEN: Oh, I miss this music. It's just like old times. I'm all choked up. Good morning, guys. Welcome back, everybody. It's time for "90-Second Pop" on a Monday. The gang is all here, me included.
B.J. Sigesmund is staff editor for "US Weekly." Sarah Bernard, contributing editor for "New York" magazine. And Toure, CNN's pop culture correspondent.
Welcome, welcome, welcome.
SARAH BERNARD, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, "NEW YORK" MAGAZINE: You're welcome.
O'BRIEN: Oh, it was ugly on "SNL."
TOURE, CNN POPULAR CULTURE CORRESPONDENT: Oh!
O'BRIEN: "Saturday Night Live," Ashlee Simpson -- I think we can't even start talking until we take a look at a clip. So let's watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ASHLEE SIMPSON, SINGER (singing): On a Monday, and I'm waiting. Tuesday, I am fading...
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Wait a minute. She's not singing. And then she kind of danced.
TOURE: Yes, that's nice. Good choice.
O'BRIEN: And good-bye.
TOURE: This is not plan B.
O'BRIEN: Good-bye. And then she walks off the stage.
TOURE: But the band keeps going on.
BERNARD: I know. I the thing the worst thing about...
TOURE: The band is the best. They just kept going on, like whatever.
BERNARD: I think the worst thing about this whole thing is that she blamed her band in the end.
TOURE: Oh, they were so...
BERNARD: Wasn't that just the wrong thing to do?
O'BRIEN: Well, clearly she was blitzed.
TOURE: Well...
O'BRIEN: I mean, clearly her track was coming up, she was lip- syncing.
TOURE: Right, the wrong song came up. But, I mean, this is like the video era, where if you're cute enough to be in a video you get a chance to be a star. But, like, you have no performing experience, and anybody with any experience could have made this work.
O'BRIEN: By doing what? Hemmer and I were talking about this earlier.
TOURE: Adjust in some way. I mean, she could have found...
B.J. SIGESMUND, STAFF EDITOR, "US WEEKLY": Own it.
TOURE: ... some way to own it, to work with it, to adjust, but...
BERNARD: To show that she was flexible on live TV.
SIGESMUND: Yes. What's going on? Wrong song, let's start again.
TOURE: Yes. I mean...
SIGESMUND: But instead, she just totally threw in the towel. And it shows her inexperience and lack of expertise at this. She's 19 years old. She only started performing live in the last six months.
TOURE: Yes. I mean, historically, before...
O'BRIEN: She learned a lot before this weekend.
TOURE: Before you got signed, historically, like, you performed. You've been in bands. You've been out there on stages. Now, like your video, and then you go on tour and it's the first time you've been in front of people.
BERNARD: But in terms of what this is going to do for her...
O'BRIEN: Yes, what does it do to her career?
BERNARD: You know, I don't think anybody expected that she is Barbra Streisand here, right? That she's got this amazing voice and she can just, you know, be as prepared as we thought. I think the people like her for her fashion and for her show and for the fact that she's Jessica's little underdog sister. I don't think it matters as much.
SIGESMUND: The public is fickle, though.
TOURE: Yes.
SIGESMUND: You know, and they liked her a lot. Her album debuted at No. 1 because of the show and MTV. But the public can turn on people just as fast. TOURE: She's a pet rock.
O'BRIEN: No air there, is that what you're saying?
TOURE: Yes.
O'BRIEN: All right, let's move on. Ben Affleck, new movie, "Surviving Christmas."
SIGESMUND: Oh!
O'BRIEN: I actually I thought...
SIGESMUND: You wanted to go.
O'BRIEN: No. No.
TOURE: I know why you did it.
O'BRIEN: It's way too early for Christmas movies as far as I'm concerned. He's been in some decent movies, but just not lately.
SIGESMUND: I'll tell you, Ben Affleck is clearly a nice guy, right? Has absolutely lost his box office magic. This is his fourth flop in a row. This movie opened at No. 7. It made only $4.5 million, which per screen actually did worse than "Gigli."
O'BRIEN: Oh, no!
TOURE: Whoa!
SIGESMUND: Yes, per screen it did a little bit worse than "Gigli." It is possible.
O'BRIEN: I feel sorry for him now.
SIGESMUND: It made like $1,600 per showing. This is...
O'BRIEN: You know...
SIGESMUND: I'm sorry. This is after "Gigli," plus "Paycheck," the big budgeted movie at Christmas...
BERNARD: Oh, right.
O'BRIEN: Right.
SIGESMUND: ... that did so poorly, plus earlier this year, of course, "Jersey Girl," which failed.
O'BRIEN: "Dogma" was a good movie.
BERNARD: I have a theory about this. I think that, you know, I was watching the game on Saturday and seeing him in there...
O'BRIEN: I miss your theories. Go ahead. (CROSSTALK)
BERNARD: Seeing him in the stands with Jennifer Garner, you know, the new Bennifer, I was thinking that, you know, the curse of the Bambino, right? They traded Babe Ruth to the Yankees.
TOURE: Yes.
BERNARD: I think Ben Affleck has traded his career for the Red Sox.
SIGESMUND: Well, they are doing well.
BERNARD: I think what's happened is he's made a deal with the devil that he's just going to give it up for the Red Sox.
TOURE: Don't worry. They'll lose, don't you worry there.
O'BRIEN: Oh, no!
TOURE: Yes, I'm darn right!
O'BRIEN: Sorry about that.
(CROSSTALK)
O'BRIEN: All right, before we go, let's talk about "The Swan."
BERNARD: It's so exciting.
O'BRIEN: They kind of...
BERNARD: It's starting tonight.
O'BRIEN: They got a new -- they're going in a new direction.
BERNARD: They are. Well, "The Swan" is the show where people get a whole lot of plastic surgery and then compete in the end in a Miss America-style pageant.
O'BRIEN: A pageant.
BERNARD: And what they are doing this year, they got a lot of flack for implying that plastic surgery solves all of your problems. So they are taking people who really have...
SIGESMUND: Some real problems.
BERNARD: ... have real problems, though it's more reconstructive plastic surgery. Tonight, it stars a woman named Jennifer who is 30 years old, and she was a burn victim. She lost about -- you know, 70 percent of her body was covered in burns. So they are going to fix that, as well as give her "The Swan" treatment.
SIGESMUND: I think this makes it clear why the show is so controversial, because people will see on one hand it's so exploitive. BERNARD: Yes.
SIGESMUND: How can you do this to these women? How can you parade their faults out there and then put them in a beauty pageant at the end? But at the same time, you watch it and you really feel for them. You get their stories. Oh, my gosh, I want this woman's life to get better. And that's part of the addiction of the show.
BERNARD: Toure is not a fan of the show as I remember from last season!
TOURE: I just have a difficult time watching the whole thing. It's just isn't there something just creepy about the whole thing?
SIGESMUND: Very creepy.
TOURE: I mean, even though we're helping these people, like, it just makes my skin crawl...
BERNARD: Yes, it is creepy.
TOURE: ... the whole idea. I mean, if it was a movie, you'd like, oh, no, that would never happen.
BERNARD: But next to "American Idol" it's the highest show.
TOURE: Yes.
O'BRIEN: It's always interesting. All right, you guys, as always, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Let's go back to Bill.
HEMMER: All right, in a moment here, the candidates making that last push through battleground states, eight days and counting now. What are the keys now to victory in the final week? Reports from the trail in a moment as we continue on this Monday morning of AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: This morning, Scott Peterson's double murder trial continues. His defense attorneys start this fifth day of calling witnesses after a serious blow to one theory last week.
Kimberly Osias reports this morning in California.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KIMBERLY OSIAS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Nine defense witnesses so far and more to go in the double murder trial of Scott Peterson. In a case which relies heavily on experts to connect the dots, all it takes is one credible witness to poke enough holes in the prosecution's theory that Scott Peterson killed his pregnant wife, Laci, and dumped her body in the San Francisco Bay.
On the stand last week, Superior Court Judge Ricardo Cordova, a neighbor of the Petersons. He testified about a woman's summer sandals found in front of the Peterson's house. They were never collected as evidence. This supports the defense's theory of a bungled investigation. Geragos asserts the sole focus was on Peterson to the exclusion of other viable suspects.
Cordova also spoke of a stranger in the neighborhood going door to door begging for money. He believed this was a pattern for setting up a burglary.
Also last week, the prosecution's grilling of fertility expert Dr. Charles March. He said the earliest the baby could have died would have been December 29, five days after Laci went missing and Scott was under police scrutiny.
Peterson's family hoped for possible vindication.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes, he was around for four days, and the police weren't looking for her. That makes us very angry.
OSIAS: But in what may have been the government's best cross- examination yet, Attorney David Harris had March on the ropes about his methodology. March used statements from some of Laci's friends to help him decide the date of conception
ROBERT TALBOT, LAW PROFESSOR: He had that witness looking defensive and confused, looking over at the jury. They looked to me like they were in a state of disbelief.
OSIAS: Also on the witness list this week, a cadaver dog handler and a Modesto police officer who walked the Peterson's dog, McKenzie, in search of clues. Testimony is expected to wrap up by week's end.
Kimberly Osias, CNN, Redwood City, California.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: Let's get a break here. In a moment, hundreds of tons of powerful explosives are missing in Iraq. What does that mean for U.S. forces there? In a moment, we will revisit that story as we continue after this.
ANNOUNCER: From the CNN broadcast center in New York, this is AMERICAN MORNING with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
HEMMER: All right, good morning, everyone. 8:00 here in New York as we start a whole new week here. Good to have you along with us today.
Eight days and counting on the calendar now, about a week now. Both candidates turning most of their attention to the shrinking list of battleground states. The race so tight, we're told, one state here or there could decide all of this. But which one is the most important? Or maybe there's a handful that are more important. Carlos Watson joins in a moment us for his take on that today.
O'BRIEN: Also this morning, a mystery disappearance in Iraq. Almost 400 tons of powerful explosives gone missing. Experts are worried that they could have fallen into the wrong hands. In just a moment, we're going to talk with a spokeswoman with the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency.
HEMMER: Jack Cafferty is with us again.
O'BRIEN: Why are you laughing, Jack?
CAFFERTY: They're worried that they might have fallen into the wrong hands? Who do they think has them? The U.N. Security Council? I mean, give me a break here.
Coming up in "The Cafferty File," former President Bill Clinton turns over a new leaf, at least when it comes to his diet. And a poll that hasn't been wrong since 1956 picks next Tuesday's winner.
HEMMER: Oh, I like that, huh? Thank you, Jack.
CAFFERTY: Might have falling into the wrong hands. That's incredible.
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