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American Morning
The Unfolding of Election 2004; Waiting in Ohio
Aired November 03, 2004 - 07:31 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. We're coming to you live from the state capitol here in Columbus, Ohio. It's just about half past the hour. I'm Soledad O'Brien. We're going to get back to Bill in just a few moments.
Right now, let's get you caught on what's happening right here in Ohio and with the election overall. President Bush now at 254 electoral votes, John Kerry at 252. Iowa and New Mexico not in the equation with the vote counting not finished yet. Ohio and its 20 electoral votes now too close to call. In Ohio, the president leading John Kerry by just about 140,000 votes.
As for the popular vote, the president now with more than 58 million votes. John Kerry, 3.5 million votes behind at this point. That is about a -- excuse me -- a 3-percentage point difference.
The president's chief of staff is calling on John Kerry to concede defeat. He says that there is no way that the senator can win in Ohio. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDY CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: In Ohio, President Bush has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The secretary of state's office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable even after the provisional ballots are considered.
(APPLAUSE)
CARD: So President Bush has won the state of Ohio!
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Andy Card saying that the math is just not possible for the Kerry campaign. The Kerry campaign, though, at this hour is still holding out hope that Ohio could potentially swing its way -- Bill.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Soledad, we're going to talk to Jeff Toobin in a moment here, trying to figure out how the land is laying today in the state of Ohio. But before we get there, the election of 2004, a marathon day of ups and downs for both candidates. Our look now at how the very long evening unfolded.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Start bringing you results.
HEMMER (voice over): In the beginning, no surprises. In fact, everything up to 11:00 p.m. Eastern Time followed the game plan. And then the focus sharpened on three critical states. First, Kerry wins Pennsylvania.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: This is the first real disappointment for either campaign.
HEMMER: But the Democrats' joy short-lived as Florida was called for Bush just after midnight.
KAREN HUGHES, BUSH CAMPAIGN ADVISOR: It's nice to know we won't be going through that again, that Florida is now in the President Bush column.
HEMMER: In the midnight hour, Ohio also moved center stage. Two TV networks called the state for Bush, but it was still too close for others.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: This from Mary Beth Cahill who, of course, is the campaign manager of the Kerry campaign. She says -- quote: "The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted".
HEMMER: Even though the president retained a sizable margin, the Democratic candidates refused to concede.
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.
HEMMER: But it soon began to look like it would turn into many, many more nights before we knew who would be elected president.
BLITZER: We're approaching 4:00 a.m. here on the East Coast of the United States. We still don't have a winner in this race.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Ohio is still undecided, because of the question over provisional ballots. Those ballots involve voters whose names didn't show up on a registration list but were allowed to vote anyway. Election officials now must make sure they are legally registered in the correct precinct.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: So that's where we stand now. All eyes remain on Ohio, where counties there are under order to report how many provisional ballots they received by 2:00 Eastern Time today. That's about six and a half hours from now. And counting on those ballots will not begin until tomorrow.
Our senior legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, stops by here. He hasn't slept either.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning, sir. HEMMER: I didn't think we could do this two times in a row, did you?
TOOBIN: No.
HEMMER: My gosh!
TOOBIN: A little different, but some similarities.
HEMMER: This is the information we received about 5:00 this morning. The vote difference, by the way, in Ohio is 145,000 to favor George Bush John Kerry. As of 5:00 a.m., 135,000 provisional ballots were accounted for in Ohio. But there were 10 counties that still had yet to report.
TOOBIN: Right.
HEMMER: Essentially we're doing the math and trying to figure out if this can add up for John Kerry or not.
TOOBIN: Right. The number of provisional ballots is not known with certainty at this point. At a minimum, there will be something like 140,000. And that seems to be one of the estimates we're getting from the secretary of state's office.
Over the course of last night, I was speaking to people in the Kerry campaign. They estimated as many as 250,000. So that's the universe. Somewhere between 140,000 and 250,000 provisional ballots.
The margin, I believe, the latest number I saw was 136,000. So Kerry has to find 136,000 new votes out of that universe of 140,000 to 250,000. Now remember, not all of those will be counted as legitimate votes. Ninety percent seems like it's the maximum that will be found legitimate.
HEMMER: Why do you say that? That's based on...
TOOBIN: Because in Ohio in the last election...
HEMMER: In 2000.
TOOBIN: ... 90 percent of the provisional ballots were counted. That's unusually high for states that have provisional ballots. In Illinois, it's been as low as 10 percent. But 90 percent.
But at that point, not all of them will go to one candidate. They will be split, presumably, more or less along the lines of the rest of the votes in the state. Perhaps a little more to the Democrats, because the people tend to be lower income, renters, non- homeowners, people whose address changes. But it just doesn't seem possible that John Kerry can pick up 136,000 votes out of this universe for provisional ballots.
HEMMER: For the sake of definition again for our viewers here...
TOOBIN: Right. HEMMER: ... a provisional ballot is when you cast to ballot in a precinct where you cannot prove at the time you cast that ballot whether or not you live there, correct?
TOOBIN: Right.
HEMMER: So it goes in orbiter.
TOOBIN: Right. When you go to vote, for some reason you're not on the list, you can't vote like everyone else. So they give you a provisional ballot, which its validity is determined later. But by definition that means there's a problem with your registration, so not everyone is ultimately going to be registered and have their vote counted.
HEMMER: What's interesting is that the numbers you're putting out comparing 2000 and 2004, it's an increase in 2004 for the provisional ballots.
TOOBIN: There are more provisional ballots.
HEMMER: But it may reflect the voter turnout that we saw across the state.
TOOBIN: That's right. Turnout was up. We don't know who these people are, and we don't know how their votes will split. We know there are more of them. But it just doesn't seem to be any way John Kerry can find 136,000 net new votes out of this universe.
HEMMER: And we wait. Thank you, Jeff. Get back when you get more, OK?
TOOBIN: OK.
HEMMER: Don't go to bed yet.
TOOBIN: Not yet.
HEMMER: What can we expect from the two campaigns? For insight now into that, CNN contributor Donna Brazile, back with us in D.C.
Donna, good morning to you.
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: Also here in New York City, Republican strategist Joe Watkins.
Joe, good morning to you as well.
JOE WATKINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: I want to get down to D.C. and Donna. What happened with the Democrats yesterday, Donna?
BRAZILE: Well, Bill, first of all, I think that Democrats got out their vote. We had a tremendous turnout across the country. We did well in states that we were expected to do well, better in states that we were not expected to do well.
Look, I think that once all of those ballots are counted in Ohio, if it proves that we don't have enough votes, then John Kerry will do the right thing. But at this point, we should err on the side of caution and allow those provisional ballots to be counted.
HEMMER: Donna, what is your sense of how long John Kerry should fight that?
BRAZILE: You know, Bill, you know, four years ago I didn't know it would take 36 days. Hopefully less than 36 days. But we should allow all of those ballots to be counted.
HEMMER: Joe, what are your reflections now the morning after when it appears if Ohio goes in the Bush column for good, that Republicans have essentially run the table in campaign 2004?
WATKINS: Well, Bill, I think the president ran a very, very strong campaign. A very, very strong campaign, a very positive, upbeat campaign, reflecting his strength in the war against terror and his strong vision to lead this country for the next four years. Certainly the economy and jobs are something that he talked about, and the economy is coming back strong. We had 3.7 percent growth in the third quarter of this year. That's a very, very good sign; 1.9 million new jobs since August of 2003.
And then, of course, the values issues. That's huge. The values issues. This president showed there was a clear difference between himself and John Kerry on the issues of values.
HEMMER: But, Joe, you must be surprised. No one was predicting the results that we saw last night.
WATKINS: Well, I think it's a good thing. Many folks thought that if there was a higher-than-normal turnout that that would benefit Democrats. You know the numbers, of course. You know that the turnout was huge, absolutely huge last night. And it was a good thing for America, and it was great that Americans came out to exercise their right to vote. But it also was great that Americans supported this president. And the president came away with over 3.5 million votes over Senator Kerry in the popular vote.
HEMMER: Well, you mention the voter turnout. Donna, it is said already that 1 in 7 voters yesterday were new voters that actually did not vote from 2000, comparing four years ago to today. We have been told that conventional wisdom says when the voter turnout is high, that favors Democrats. Why did that trend not go that way yesterday?
BRAZILE: Well, you know, in certain areas it did. In other areas it did not. I have to take issue with Reverend Watkins. I know it's early and I've been up now for about an hour. But, look, this was a very divisive campaign.
You know, you talk about those (INAUDIBLE) issues that detract voters from the real issues. It was a very bitterly fought campaign. And although the results are what they are in the states that we've seen thus far, we still have serious problems with the way in which people have to vote.
Look, last night in Ohio, people stood in line up to three hours after the polls had closed. They ran out of ballots in some places. They had to run off ballots. So I really think...
WATKINS: That's very true, Donna. But it doesn't change the outcome. It doesn't change the outcome. And the popular vote...
BRAZILE: Well, we don't know the outcome yet.
WATKINS: And the popular vote...
BRAZILE: We don't know the outcome in Ohio right now.
WATKINS: ... we know that over three million people voted for President Bush. That's a very positive thing.
BRAZILE: And, Joe, that's...
WATKINS: We know that the president is going to win Ohio.
BRAZILE: And, Joe -- and, Joe, Joe...
WATKINS: I don't think there is any way, Donna...
BRAZILE: ... there is something...
HEMMER: Go ahead, Donna.
BRAZILE: It's the way in which you won. You know, Joe, if you want to go out there and divide people along racial lines, along religious lines, in the way in which this president who promised four years to unite us, who ran one of the most divisive campaigns, then, you know, accept the results as you accept them.
I believe that, you know, John Kerry had a great campaign. He had a positive message. He didn't spend $110 million trying to destroy George Bush. The Republicans did. They...
WATKINS: Well, the 527 ad folks did. They spent lots of money. They spent millions of dollars...
BRAZILE: They spent money exposing George Bush's record...
WATKINS: ... destroying George Bush and destroying his credibility.
BRAZILE: ... which he did not...
WATKINS: Michael Moore did a movie that demonized the president.
BRAZILE: ... which he did not -- which he did not...
WATKINS: He made a couple of million dollars doing that.
BRAZILE: ... which he did not want his record known to the American people. Instead, he made the issues gay marriage, partial- birth abortion. I mean, he...
WATKINS: Well, those are important issues, Donna.
HEMMER: Hang on. Hang on.
BRAZILE: Of course they're important issues.
WATKINS: Those are important for all Americans.
BRAZILE: But that's the president of the United States who can't seem even at this late date to find a way to bring the country together.
HEMMER: Final thought from Joe.
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: ... strong character and a strong sense of values. And Americans like that. I support that.
BRAZILE: And so does John Kerry.
HEMMER: We've got to run. Thanks. We've got to go. Donna, Joe, thanks.
WATKINS: Thank you.
HEMMER: I want to say good morning to Heidi Collins, with us as well today.
Heidi -- good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Bill. And good morning, everybody. Some other news to report now.
Republicans will retain control of the Senate. They had a 51-48 majority coming in and managed to gain at least five seats there. You see it on your screen.
In South Dakota, a major defeat for the Democrats as former GOP Representative John Thune defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.
To North Carolina now. Representative Richard Burr picked up the Senate seat vacated by vice presidential candidate John Edwards.
And in Louisiana, David Vitter becomes the state's first GOP senator since Reconstruction.
Jim DeMint was the winner in South Carolina. He'll replace Democrat Ernest Hollings, who decided not to seek re-election.
And the GOP held on to its seat in Kentucky, just barely though, when Senator Jim Bunning held off Democratic challenger Dan Mongiardo.
And the new House stays in Republican hands, extending their decade-long hold on the chamber for another two years. The GOP had a 247-205 margin coming in. Now, all 435 seats were up for grabs. Nearly all incumbents were projected to win re-election. And CNN is projecting a net gain of five seats for Republicans in the House.
To the governorships now, 11 of them were also at stake, but did little to tilt the balance of power in the states themselves. In one of the most hotly-contested gubernatorial races, Republican challenger Mel Daniels with strong support from his former boss, of course President Bush, defeated Indiana's incumbent Joe Kernan. Daniels is the first Republican to win Indiana's statehouse in 16 years. And they are talking about it this morning in that state at least.
Back now to Soledad.
O'BRIEN: All right, Heidi, thanks.
And still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, the headlines out of Ohio. Carlos Watson is going to break down the power shift in Washington, D.C. That's ahead. Stay with us. We're back in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Welcome back, everyone. I want to bring in Carlos Watson now. He's been up all night as well.
Carlos -- good morning. How are you feeling?
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
HEMMER: Yes, fresh as a daisy?
WATSON: I feel strong, as they say.
O'BRIEN: You look tired.
HEMMER: You had felt that this race would be decided by a margin of 3 or 4 points. And it appears that it will be decided by that. Why were you not in the category of 1e point, 2 points or even less than that?
WATSON: I guess -- and, Heidi, I think you and I talked about this for the first time, which was a couple months ago. I felt like the issues were so big. I mean, we didn't have small issues here. We had the war. We had the economy. We had national security.
And I also felt like the differences were kind of small. You didn't have kind of a moderate Republican running against a moderate Democrat. You had someone who takes very clear positions on the right. Someone who was in many ways on the left. And so I thought those combined with all of the money and the passion would lead to a greater separation than just a half a percent.
HEMMER: If John Kerry concedes, where did he misstep? WATSON: You're probably going to see criticism along of what I call "MMC" -- the man, the message or the campaign. You'll hear criticism of the man. They'll say that he wasn't -- he didn't connect in the way that Bill Clinton did or the way that President Bush does. And they'll say that hurt him in places like Ohio.
COLLINS: Is that something that you learn, though? Or is that something that you just already know when you get up to the point where he was in this campaign?
WATSON: You know, you are who you are, especially after 60 years. So people then will make the broader criticism of Democrats for choosing someone who they say wasn't as empathetic, didn't have the kind of easy-going feel that some politicians may need.
They'll also charge that the message wasn't there. They'll say that here you had fertile ground on the economy and on the war, and the message wasn't sharp enough, it wasn't honed enough, and particularly on Iraq. Remember the 87 billion, I voted for it before I voted against it, that that sunk him.
HEMMER: Sure.
WATSON: And last but not least, we will hear criticism about the campaign. They'll say you guys talked a lot about this get-out-the- vote effort. Lots of new people vote. But in the end, guess whose people voted the most in Florida and in other places? They'll say the Republicans.
HEMMER: And Republicans did turn out to vote. Is that what George Bush did the best, mobilizing his forces and getting them to the polls?
WATSON: Well, the president did a lot of things, but the president ultimately wins. As I've said before, you've absolutely got to call him one of the three or four best politicians of the last half-century, because it will be his third big race that he won in 10 years.
Now, what he has given to the Republican Party that they didn't have even under Ronald Reagan was a real get-out-the-vote effort. Remember, they've always been good at raising money, at figuring out message, at running television ads, even at choosing great candidates. But rarely have they been good in those final 72 hours. They did a test run in 2002 with some Senate races. And this year they seem to have (INAUDIBLE).
HEMMER: We're going to have you all morning.
WATSON: Yes?
HEMMER: And we can keep the coffee going.
WATSON: There you go.
COLLINS: I'll keep going like this. WATSON: You'll be poking me? My mom used to do that in church. Wake him up. Wake him up.
HEMMER: Listen, Jack is out today. So you're going to help with those e-mail questions.
WATSON: You got it.
HEMMER: The e-mail question today is this: Should John Kerry concede? And we're throwing it out to our viewers at home. Am@cnn.com. And you can contact us throughout the morning here, so we'll get to that.
Newspapers, what do you have, Heidi?
COLLINS: I've got, like, titles for novels, it sounds like. "Night on the Edge," "Washington Times."
HEMMER: That would work.
COLLINS: Then we've got "Cliffhanger" here. Sorry. It's hard to see these, except for that one because it's so huge.
WATSON: It's kind of a John Grisham novel.
COLLINS: Yes, exactly.
WATSON: Yes.
COLLINS: And then this one isn't quite so (INAUDIBLE), but, you know, using words like Bush and Kerry locked in a tighter race than I guess, you know, people expected. I don't know, I think they kind of expected it.
HEMMER: And then this thing in Columbus, "The Dispatch," is the headline this morning back there in the central part of the state of Ohio, "Cliffhanger" as well.
COLLINS: "Cliffhanger" again.
HEMMER: Stealing a line right there, maybe not. Maybe they're sharing at this point. I like this from the "Daily News," "Deja Vote."
COLLINS: That's good.
HEMMER: All over again.
WATSON: Do you?
COLLINS: Not really, though. I mean, it's different this time around. I don't know. It's interesting, too, to look back at the debates. You know, we talked so much about some people saying, some analysts saying that President Bush didn't win any of the debates. And now if, in fact, he does win this election, it brings out more discussion. WATSON: Said it didn't matter.
COLLINS: Apparently not.
WATSON: Right, right?
HEMMER: Let's get back to Columbus now. Here's Soledad again.
Hey -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Well, it may be a cliffhanger. It may be that the final outcome is still up in the air. But Wall Street seems to ready to bank on one of the candidates. Andy is "Minding Your Business" just ahead. AMERICAN MORNING comes to from you the still battleground state of Ohio. We're back in just a moment. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: So how will Wall Street react today to the election, as it stands now anyway? Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" on that.
Some interesting stuff this morning.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes, a lot of stuff actually. Let's first of all talk about what happened over the past 24 hours, Heidi. The markets on a wild ride following the course of events.
Let's look at the action yesterday. The Dow trended up very nicely, kind of moderate trading there. And then woof, fall off the cliff right around 2:30. That's when the first news of the exit polls hit the market. And there was fear of gridlock, a rerun of 2000. For the day the Dow was down 18 points as everyone tried to settle into the afternoon to see what would happen. You can see here the Nasdaq and S&P up.
Now, this morning, though, a completely different picture. With the prospects of a Bush victory, Wall Street seems to be pleased with the news. Stock futures are up sharply. In particular the Dow futures up nearly 100 points.
The price of oil is up. That is not a positive, of course. The situation there is the price had dropped a little bit with the prospects of a Kerry victory. Now it appears with Bush perhaps winning, the price up.
The dollar is up. The Asian market is up. European market is up as well. And it will be interesting to see what happens this morning.
One thing I should note about oil, the other reason the price is up -- that's what I was trying to get to -- is that there's some sabotage in Iraq, which is also driving the price up. But anyway, it'll be interesting to see once we get trading this morning how things go.
COLLINS: Yes, we had some video of that yesterday on those pipelines. SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: Unbelievable video there.
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: So a good point to make. Andy, thank you.
SERWER: You're welcome.
HEMMER: Let's get a break here. Waiting on Ohio. Which way will the Buckeye State go? We'll get back to there in a moment as we continue on the morning after. And we wait again. Back after this.
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Aired November 3, 2004 - 07:31 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. We're coming to you live from the state capitol here in Columbus, Ohio. It's just about half past the hour. I'm Soledad O'Brien. We're going to get back to Bill in just a few moments.
Right now, let's get you caught on what's happening right here in Ohio and with the election overall. President Bush now at 254 electoral votes, John Kerry at 252. Iowa and New Mexico not in the equation with the vote counting not finished yet. Ohio and its 20 electoral votes now too close to call. In Ohio, the president leading John Kerry by just about 140,000 votes.
As for the popular vote, the president now with more than 58 million votes. John Kerry, 3.5 million votes behind at this point. That is about a -- excuse me -- a 3-percentage point difference.
The president's chief of staff is calling on John Kerry to concede defeat. He says that there is no way that the senator can win in Ohio. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDY CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: In Ohio, President Bush has a lead of at least 140,000 votes. The secretary of state's office has informed us that this margin is statistically insurmountable even after the provisional ballots are considered.
(APPLAUSE)
CARD: So President Bush has won the state of Ohio!
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O'BRIEN: Andy Card saying that the math is just not possible for the Kerry campaign. The Kerry campaign, though, at this hour is still holding out hope that Ohio could potentially swing its way -- Bill.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Soledad, we're going to talk to Jeff Toobin in a moment here, trying to figure out how the land is laying today in the state of Ohio. But before we get there, the election of 2004, a marathon day of ups and downs for both candidates. Our look now at how the very long evening unfolded.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Start bringing you results.
HEMMER (voice over): In the beginning, no surprises. In fact, everything up to 11:00 p.m. Eastern Time followed the game plan. And then the focus sharpened on three critical states. First, Kerry wins Pennsylvania.
JEFF GREENFIELD, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: This is the first real disappointment for either campaign.
HEMMER: But the Democrats' joy short-lived as Florida was called for Bush just after midnight.
KAREN HUGHES, BUSH CAMPAIGN ADVISOR: It's nice to know we won't be going through that again, that Florida is now in the President Bush column.
HEMMER: In the midnight hour, Ohio also moved center stage. Two TV networks called the state for Bush, but it was still too close for others.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: This from Mary Beth Cahill who, of course, is the campaign manager of the Kerry campaign. She says -- quote: "The vote count in Ohio has not been completed. There are more than 250,000 remaining votes to be counted".
HEMMER: Even though the president retained a sizable margin, the Democratic candidates refused to concede.
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We've waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.
HEMMER: But it soon began to look like it would turn into many, many more nights before we knew who would be elected president.
BLITZER: We're approaching 4:00 a.m. here on the East Coast of the United States. We still don't have a winner in this race.
CAROL COSTELLO, CNN ANCHOR: Ohio is still undecided, because of the question over provisional ballots. Those ballots involve voters whose names didn't show up on a registration list but were allowed to vote anyway. Election officials now must make sure they are legally registered in the correct precinct.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: So that's where we stand now. All eyes remain on Ohio, where counties there are under order to report how many provisional ballots they received by 2:00 Eastern Time today. That's about six and a half hours from now. And counting on those ballots will not begin until tomorrow.
Our senior legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, stops by here. He hasn't slept either.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning, sir. HEMMER: I didn't think we could do this two times in a row, did you?
TOOBIN: No.
HEMMER: My gosh!
TOOBIN: A little different, but some similarities.
HEMMER: This is the information we received about 5:00 this morning. The vote difference, by the way, in Ohio is 145,000 to favor George Bush John Kerry. As of 5:00 a.m., 135,000 provisional ballots were accounted for in Ohio. But there were 10 counties that still had yet to report.
TOOBIN: Right.
HEMMER: Essentially we're doing the math and trying to figure out if this can add up for John Kerry or not.
TOOBIN: Right. The number of provisional ballots is not known with certainty at this point. At a minimum, there will be something like 140,000. And that seems to be one of the estimates we're getting from the secretary of state's office.
Over the course of last night, I was speaking to people in the Kerry campaign. They estimated as many as 250,000. So that's the universe. Somewhere between 140,000 and 250,000 provisional ballots.
The margin, I believe, the latest number I saw was 136,000. So Kerry has to find 136,000 new votes out of that universe of 140,000 to 250,000. Now remember, not all of those will be counted as legitimate votes. Ninety percent seems like it's the maximum that will be found legitimate.
HEMMER: Why do you say that? That's based on...
TOOBIN: Because in Ohio in the last election...
HEMMER: In 2000.
TOOBIN: ... 90 percent of the provisional ballots were counted. That's unusually high for states that have provisional ballots. In Illinois, it's been as low as 10 percent. But 90 percent.
But at that point, not all of them will go to one candidate. They will be split, presumably, more or less along the lines of the rest of the votes in the state. Perhaps a little more to the Democrats, because the people tend to be lower income, renters, non- homeowners, people whose address changes. But it just doesn't seem possible that John Kerry can pick up 136,000 votes out of this universe for provisional ballots.
HEMMER: For the sake of definition again for our viewers here...
TOOBIN: Right. HEMMER: ... a provisional ballot is when you cast to ballot in a precinct where you cannot prove at the time you cast that ballot whether or not you live there, correct?
TOOBIN: Right.
HEMMER: So it goes in orbiter.
TOOBIN: Right. When you go to vote, for some reason you're not on the list, you can't vote like everyone else. So they give you a provisional ballot, which its validity is determined later. But by definition that means there's a problem with your registration, so not everyone is ultimately going to be registered and have their vote counted.
HEMMER: What's interesting is that the numbers you're putting out comparing 2000 and 2004, it's an increase in 2004 for the provisional ballots.
TOOBIN: There are more provisional ballots.
HEMMER: But it may reflect the voter turnout that we saw across the state.
TOOBIN: That's right. Turnout was up. We don't know who these people are, and we don't know how their votes will split. We know there are more of them. But it just doesn't seem to be any way John Kerry can find 136,000 net new votes out of this universe.
HEMMER: And we wait. Thank you, Jeff. Get back when you get more, OK?
TOOBIN: OK.
HEMMER: Don't go to bed yet.
TOOBIN: Not yet.
HEMMER: What can we expect from the two campaigns? For insight now into that, CNN contributor Donna Brazile, back with us in D.C.
Donna, good morning to you.
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: Also here in New York City, Republican strategist Joe Watkins.
Joe, good morning to you as well.
JOE WATKINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Good morning, Bill.
HEMMER: I want to get down to D.C. and Donna. What happened with the Democrats yesterday, Donna?
BRAZILE: Well, Bill, first of all, I think that Democrats got out their vote. We had a tremendous turnout across the country. We did well in states that we were expected to do well, better in states that we were not expected to do well.
Look, I think that once all of those ballots are counted in Ohio, if it proves that we don't have enough votes, then John Kerry will do the right thing. But at this point, we should err on the side of caution and allow those provisional ballots to be counted.
HEMMER: Donna, what is your sense of how long John Kerry should fight that?
BRAZILE: You know, Bill, you know, four years ago I didn't know it would take 36 days. Hopefully less than 36 days. But we should allow all of those ballots to be counted.
HEMMER: Joe, what are your reflections now the morning after when it appears if Ohio goes in the Bush column for good, that Republicans have essentially run the table in campaign 2004?
WATKINS: Well, Bill, I think the president ran a very, very strong campaign. A very, very strong campaign, a very positive, upbeat campaign, reflecting his strength in the war against terror and his strong vision to lead this country for the next four years. Certainly the economy and jobs are something that he talked about, and the economy is coming back strong. We had 3.7 percent growth in the third quarter of this year. That's a very, very good sign; 1.9 million new jobs since August of 2003.
And then, of course, the values issues. That's huge. The values issues. This president showed there was a clear difference between himself and John Kerry on the issues of values.
HEMMER: But, Joe, you must be surprised. No one was predicting the results that we saw last night.
WATKINS: Well, I think it's a good thing. Many folks thought that if there was a higher-than-normal turnout that that would benefit Democrats. You know the numbers, of course. You know that the turnout was huge, absolutely huge last night. And it was a good thing for America, and it was great that Americans came out to exercise their right to vote. But it also was great that Americans supported this president. And the president came away with over 3.5 million votes over Senator Kerry in the popular vote.
HEMMER: Well, you mention the voter turnout. Donna, it is said already that 1 in 7 voters yesterday were new voters that actually did not vote from 2000, comparing four years ago to today. We have been told that conventional wisdom says when the voter turnout is high, that favors Democrats. Why did that trend not go that way yesterday?
BRAZILE: Well, you know, in certain areas it did. In other areas it did not. I have to take issue with Reverend Watkins. I know it's early and I've been up now for about an hour. But, look, this was a very divisive campaign.
You know, you talk about those (INAUDIBLE) issues that detract voters from the real issues. It was a very bitterly fought campaign. And although the results are what they are in the states that we've seen thus far, we still have serious problems with the way in which people have to vote.
Look, last night in Ohio, people stood in line up to three hours after the polls had closed. They ran out of ballots in some places. They had to run off ballots. So I really think...
WATKINS: That's very true, Donna. But it doesn't change the outcome. It doesn't change the outcome. And the popular vote...
BRAZILE: Well, we don't know the outcome yet.
WATKINS: And the popular vote...
BRAZILE: We don't know the outcome in Ohio right now.
WATKINS: ... we know that over three million people voted for President Bush. That's a very positive thing.
BRAZILE: And, Joe, that's...
WATKINS: We know that the president is going to win Ohio.
BRAZILE: And, Joe -- and, Joe, Joe...
WATKINS: I don't think there is any way, Donna...
BRAZILE: ... there is something...
HEMMER: Go ahead, Donna.
BRAZILE: It's the way in which you won. You know, Joe, if you want to go out there and divide people along racial lines, along religious lines, in the way in which this president who promised four years to unite us, who ran one of the most divisive campaigns, then, you know, accept the results as you accept them.
I believe that, you know, John Kerry had a great campaign. He had a positive message. He didn't spend $110 million trying to destroy George Bush. The Republicans did. They...
WATKINS: Well, the 527 ad folks did. They spent lots of money. They spent millions of dollars...
BRAZILE: They spent money exposing George Bush's record...
WATKINS: ... destroying George Bush and destroying his credibility.
BRAZILE: ... which he did not...
WATKINS: Michael Moore did a movie that demonized the president.
BRAZILE: ... which he did not -- which he did not...
WATKINS: He made a couple of million dollars doing that.
BRAZILE: ... which he did not want his record known to the American people. Instead, he made the issues gay marriage, partial- birth abortion. I mean, he...
WATKINS: Well, those are important issues, Donna.
HEMMER: Hang on. Hang on.
BRAZILE: Of course they're important issues.
WATKINS: Those are important for all Americans.
BRAZILE: But that's the president of the United States who can't seem even at this late date to find a way to bring the country together.
HEMMER: Final thought from Joe.
(CROSSTALK)
WATKINS: ... strong character and a strong sense of values. And Americans like that. I support that.
BRAZILE: And so does John Kerry.
HEMMER: We've got to run. Thanks. We've got to go. Donna, Joe, thanks.
WATKINS: Thank you.
HEMMER: I want to say good morning to Heidi Collins, with us as well today.
Heidi -- good morning.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning to you, Bill. And good morning, everybody. Some other news to report now.
Republicans will retain control of the Senate. They had a 51-48 majority coming in and managed to gain at least five seats there. You see it on your screen.
In South Dakota, a major defeat for the Democrats as former GOP Representative John Thune defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle.
To North Carolina now. Representative Richard Burr picked up the Senate seat vacated by vice presidential candidate John Edwards.
And in Louisiana, David Vitter becomes the state's first GOP senator since Reconstruction.
Jim DeMint was the winner in South Carolina. He'll replace Democrat Ernest Hollings, who decided not to seek re-election.
And the GOP held on to its seat in Kentucky, just barely though, when Senator Jim Bunning held off Democratic challenger Dan Mongiardo.
And the new House stays in Republican hands, extending their decade-long hold on the chamber for another two years. The GOP had a 247-205 margin coming in. Now, all 435 seats were up for grabs. Nearly all incumbents were projected to win re-election. And CNN is projecting a net gain of five seats for Republicans in the House.
To the governorships now, 11 of them were also at stake, but did little to tilt the balance of power in the states themselves. In one of the most hotly-contested gubernatorial races, Republican challenger Mel Daniels with strong support from his former boss, of course President Bush, defeated Indiana's incumbent Joe Kernan. Daniels is the first Republican to win Indiana's statehouse in 16 years. And they are talking about it this morning in that state at least.
Back now to Soledad.
O'BRIEN: All right, Heidi, thanks.
And still to come on AMERICAN MORNING, the headlines out of Ohio. Carlos Watson is going to break down the power shift in Washington, D.C. That's ahead. Stay with us. We're back in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Welcome back, everyone. I want to bring in Carlos Watson now. He's been up all night as well.
Carlos -- good morning. How are you feeling?
CARLOS WATSON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
HEMMER: Yes, fresh as a daisy?
WATSON: I feel strong, as they say.
O'BRIEN: You look tired.
HEMMER: You had felt that this race would be decided by a margin of 3 or 4 points. And it appears that it will be decided by that. Why were you not in the category of 1e point, 2 points or even less than that?
WATSON: I guess -- and, Heidi, I think you and I talked about this for the first time, which was a couple months ago. I felt like the issues were so big. I mean, we didn't have small issues here. We had the war. We had the economy. We had national security.
And I also felt like the differences were kind of small. You didn't have kind of a moderate Republican running against a moderate Democrat. You had someone who takes very clear positions on the right. Someone who was in many ways on the left. And so I thought those combined with all of the money and the passion would lead to a greater separation than just a half a percent.
HEMMER: If John Kerry concedes, where did he misstep? WATSON: You're probably going to see criticism along of what I call "MMC" -- the man, the message or the campaign. You'll hear criticism of the man. They'll say that he wasn't -- he didn't connect in the way that Bill Clinton did or the way that President Bush does. And they'll say that hurt him in places like Ohio.
COLLINS: Is that something that you learn, though? Or is that something that you just already know when you get up to the point where he was in this campaign?
WATSON: You know, you are who you are, especially after 60 years. So people then will make the broader criticism of Democrats for choosing someone who they say wasn't as empathetic, didn't have the kind of easy-going feel that some politicians may need.
They'll also charge that the message wasn't there. They'll say that here you had fertile ground on the economy and on the war, and the message wasn't sharp enough, it wasn't honed enough, and particularly on Iraq. Remember the 87 billion, I voted for it before I voted against it, that that sunk him.
HEMMER: Sure.
WATSON: And last but not least, we will hear criticism about the campaign. They'll say you guys talked a lot about this get-out-the- vote effort. Lots of new people vote. But in the end, guess whose people voted the most in Florida and in other places? They'll say the Republicans.
HEMMER: And Republicans did turn out to vote. Is that what George Bush did the best, mobilizing his forces and getting them to the polls?
WATSON: Well, the president did a lot of things, but the president ultimately wins. As I've said before, you've absolutely got to call him one of the three or four best politicians of the last half-century, because it will be his third big race that he won in 10 years.
Now, what he has given to the Republican Party that they didn't have even under Ronald Reagan was a real get-out-the-vote effort. Remember, they've always been good at raising money, at figuring out message, at running television ads, even at choosing great candidates. But rarely have they been good in those final 72 hours. They did a test run in 2002 with some Senate races. And this year they seem to have (INAUDIBLE).
HEMMER: We're going to have you all morning.
WATSON: Yes?
HEMMER: And we can keep the coffee going.
WATSON: There you go.
COLLINS: I'll keep going like this. WATSON: You'll be poking me? My mom used to do that in church. Wake him up. Wake him up.
HEMMER: Listen, Jack is out today. So you're going to help with those e-mail questions.
WATSON: You got it.
HEMMER: The e-mail question today is this: Should John Kerry concede? And we're throwing it out to our viewers at home. Am@cnn.com. And you can contact us throughout the morning here, so we'll get to that.
Newspapers, what do you have, Heidi?
COLLINS: I've got, like, titles for novels, it sounds like. "Night on the Edge," "Washington Times."
HEMMER: That would work.
COLLINS: Then we've got "Cliffhanger" here. Sorry. It's hard to see these, except for that one because it's so huge.
WATSON: It's kind of a John Grisham novel.
COLLINS: Yes, exactly.
WATSON: Yes.
COLLINS: And then this one isn't quite so (INAUDIBLE), but, you know, using words like Bush and Kerry locked in a tighter race than I guess, you know, people expected. I don't know, I think they kind of expected it.
HEMMER: And then this thing in Columbus, "The Dispatch," is the headline this morning back there in the central part of the state of Ohio, "Cliffhanger" as well.
COLLINS: "Cliffhanger" again.
HEMMER: Stealing a line right there, maybe not. Maybe they're sharing at this point. I like this from the "Daily News," "Deja Vote."
COLLINS: That's good.
HEMMER: All over again.
WATSON: Do you?
COLLINS: Not really, though. I mean, it's different this time around. I don't know. It's interesting, too, to look back at the debates. You know, we talked so much about some people saying, some analysts saying that President Bush didn't win any of the debates. And now if, in fact, he does win this election, it brings out more discussion. WATSON: Said it didn't matter.
COLLINS: Apparently not.
WATSON: Right, right?
HEMMER: Let's get back to Columbus now. Here's Soledad again.
Hey -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Well, it may be a cliffhanger. It may be that the final outcome is still up in the air. But Wall Street seems to ready to bank on one of the candidates. Andy is "Minding Your Business" just ahead. AMERICAN MORNING comes to from you the still battleground state of Ohio. We're back in just a moment. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: So how will Wall Street react today to the election, as it stands now anyway? Andy Serwer is "Minding Your Business" on that.
Some interesting stuff this morning.
ANDY SERWER, "FORTUNE" MAGAZINE: Yes, a lot of stuff actually. Let's first of all talk about what happened over the past 24 hours, Heidi. The markets on a wild ride following the course of events.
Let's look at the action yesterday. The Dow trended up very nicely, kind of moderate trading there. And then woof, fall off the cliff right around 2:30. That's when the first news of the exit polls hit the market. And there was fear of gridlock, a rerun of 2000. For the day the Dow was down 18 points as everyone tried to settle into the afternoon to see what would happen. You can see here the Nasdaq and S&P up.
Now, this morning, though, a completely different picture. With the prospects of a Bush victory, Wall Street seems to be pleased with the news. Stock futures are up sharply. In particular the Dow futures up nearly 100 points.
The price of oil is up. That is not a positive, of course. The situation there is the price had dropped a little bit with the prospects of a Kerry victory. Now it appears with Bush perhaps winning, the price up.
The dollar is up. The Asian market is up. European market is up as well. And it will be interesting to see what happens this morning.
One thing I should note about oil, the other reason the price is up -- that's what I was trying to get to -- is that there's some sabotage in Iraq, which is also driving the price up. But anyway, it'll be interesting to see once we get trading this morning how things go.
COLLINS: Yes, we had some video of that yesterday on those pipelines. SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: Unbelievable video there.
SERWER: Yes.
COLLINS: So a good point to make. Andy, thank you.
SERWER: You're welcome.
HEMMER: Let's get a break here. Waiting on Ohio. Which way will the Buckeye State go? We'll get back to there in a moment as we continue on the morning after. And we wait again. Back after this.
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