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American Morning
Bush Campaign Claims Victory
Aired November 03, 2004 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Republicans gain seats in the House and the Senate on this is AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
HEMMER: Good morning, everyone. November 3 from New York City. Ten o'clock here, as our special election coverage continues on the day after. I'm Bill Hemmer in New York and Soledad O'Brien is in Columbus.
Soledad, good morning there.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you, we're on November 3 it is not all said and done. It is not all decided. And it's a little chilly out here as we camp out in front of the State House. We're going to have more of what's happening here in Ohio in just a few moments-- Bill.
HEMMER: You're in the heart of it all right now for campaign 2004. Soledad, back to you in a moment there in Ohio.
The Bush campaign claims victory, Kerry strategist urging patience in the nation, as a presidency awaiting final results. Counting is not yet complete in three states, including Ohio. Election officials there say a final tally could be days away. Here is the electoral landscape as we see it at this hour.
CNN projects President Bush with 254 electoral votes to John Kerry 252. Results expected later today in Iowa and New Mexico. But even those will leave either candidate short of the 270 that is needed. That means Ohio will again will determine the winner.
And with Ohio now the center of this drama, much as Florida was four years ago, Soledad O'Brien arriving early, in the early hours in Columbus, Ohio. Back to the capitol there, where we join Soledad with the latest.
Good morning.
O'BRIEN: All right, Bill. Thanks. And good morning to you. It's been a long night. And it's going to prove probably to be a very long day here, certainly in Ohio. Election officials here in Ohio setting a deadline of 2:00 p.m., less than four hours from now to report on the actual number of provisional balls that have been issued. That could make the count determining who voted for who, really meaningless, because President Bush has a lead in Ohio of more than 136,000 votes.
So if the provisional ballot number is less than that, as Republicans are claiming, the president would be assured victory here in Ohio. And most importantly, really, in the Electoral College.
We're expecting, as you mentioned just a few moments ago, Bill, to he Kerry campaign. So we're going to check in first and foremost with CNN's national correspondent, Kelly Wallace. She's at Kerry headquarters in Boston for us this morning.
Hey, Kelly. Good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad. The latest guidance we are getting from the Kerry campaign is that we should expect some sort of update or briefing sometime this morning. Campaign aides say they are taking some time to talk to their folks on the ground in Ohio, and also to talk to the experts.
The top adviser to Senator Kerry telling me earlier this morning, the campaign would be looking at the numbers. Looking at the numbers of provisional ballots, looking at President Bush and Senator Kerry, looking at the situation very carefully to determine, in the words of this adviser, what are the, quote, "realistic prospects of turning Ohio around." And then Senator Kerry would have to make the assessment and make the decision from there.
We have not seen Senator Kerry today. In fact, we did not see him last night at all, as well. We believe he is still at his Boston town house, huddling with his family, his wife Teresa, his daughters Vanessa and Alexandra and also with his staff.
The first time that Senator Kerry would not be conceding this election, at least last night, was the fact that it was Senator John Edwards who came to this crowd of supporters around 2:30 a.m. at Copley Square.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's been a long night. But we've waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.
John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election, every vote would count, and every vote would be counted.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WALLACE: Now, Senator Kerry's motto throughout these final days had been that he would be that be taking nothing for granted. A sign of that, he sat in the chair for four hours yesterday doing 38 interviews with television stations in the key battleground states. This, as his campaign aides were feeling increasingly confidant, Soledad, as the day went on. They were looking at those exit poll numbers, numbers our own news organization saw as well, thinking that things were going Senator Kerry's way.
Fair to say, it's turned to a great deal of concern and confusion as the night wore on. And now Senator Kerry facing a very big decision, whether he continues to try and make the case that the vote count should be continuing in Ohio. Or if he believes the numbers are not on his side, and he will concede to President Bush. Again, we are expecting some sort of update from the campaign sometime this morning -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: All right. But no specific word on when we're going to hear from them? There's a -- any sense from you of a feeling there in the campaign that we could be heading into the final hours, even as they still have not counted those provisional ballots here in Ohio?
WALLACE: Well, first to the time line, you know, we were given some sense of 10:00 a.m. But campaign aides say 10:00 a.m. at the earliest. And now they're saying, you know, expect some sort of update, briefing this morning.
The second is -- really will come down to the numbers. The campaign will be looking at the same numbers we're looking at, other reporters are looking at, Ohio officials are looking at. And they will have to come to some sense when they look at the numbers, if they think the numbers are on their side. The sense, Soledad, I got from this adviser earlier this morning is if the campaign feels the numbers are not on Senator Kerry's side, that Senator Kerry would likely concede.
This adviser saying, it wouldn't be a lengthy period of time. He said, quote, "We won't make this a mystery for too long" -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Kelly Wallace for us. And we should mention those numbers again out of Ohio, Kelly. One hundred and thirty-five thousand, 149 is the latest number that we're getting here in Ohio. That's 1,300 fewer than the actual margin of victory that President Bush has at this point. Still with 10 of 88 counties yet to report in on their actual number of provisional ballots that they have.
And once you get to that step to calculate the number of provisional ballots that exist, period. Then the next step can take place, if it has to, which would be actually opening them and see which way the election goes at that point.
Kelly Wallace for us.
Let's head back to Bill in New York this morning -- Bill.
HEMMER: Soledad, so much of the story right now is all about numbers. And in fact, you CAN see the numbers that we're running at the bottom of our screen throughout our broadcast here. Results from across the country for that matter. Usually you will see the stock market report: the Dow 30, the NASDAQ, the S&P. You won't see that now because the screen is a bit crowded.
In the meantime though, I want to get back to the White House and Suzanne Malveaux. The Bush campaign, Suzanne, already declaring victory. Andy Card did that about 5:00 in the morning to supporters in Washington, D.C. What are they saying at this point?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, there's a very important meeting that is taking place at this hour. President Bush is going on a couple hours of sleep, as much as his senior staff as well. But Vice President Dick Cheney arrived here at the White House about 45 minutes ago, as did Karen Hughes, his political adviser and image-maker, and chief confident to the president in the Oval Office with his senior advisers at this hour.
It's not a matter of whether or not the president is going to declare victory. It's simply a matter of when and how. We have been told the president is going to speak to the American people and say yes, that he did win. They are simply giving Kerry some breathing space, some room to take that second look at those results.
Now, it was last night that we heard from his Chief of Staff Andy card. He went before the thousands of people gathered at the Ronald Reagan Building to make the case why they believe the president is the clear winner. They say that the president has 286 electoral votes. He also has 3.5 million margin of popular vote. As well as, they believe, a decisive victory in Ohio. They say about 140,000-vote lead. Something that they say is insurmountable to actually pass.
And what they're most proud of, however, is the popular vote. The fact the president has garnered 51 percent to Kerry's 48 percent. They believe this makes it a legitimate win.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDY CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: We are convinced that President Bush has won re-election with at least 286 Electoral College votes.
(CHEERING)
CARD: And he also had a margin of more than 3.5 million popular votes.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, the president was very confident about his chances of winning last night when he was at the residence, gathered with family and friends watching the results. He said he believes that he was going to win, of course, this snafu over Ohio. They quickly went into work mode to figuring out the strategy, what would happen next. Initially they thought the president should go forward and declare victory anyway.
But really the political calculus here, Bill, is that they decided to pull back. They wanted to make absolutely sure that the American people believe this was a legitimate process, that this was a legitimate win. They are simply waiting for Kerry to concede. But Bush aides also saying as well, Bill, that they expect this to be wrapped up by the end of the day.
HEMMER: Suzanne, are you aware of any contact between the two camps at this point?
MALVEAUX: Well, so far they are huddled; the Bush camp is huddled at this hour, trying to figure out what their strategy is. We're not aware they're with the Kerry camp at all. There's a great deal of confidence among this group that they have this locked up. But they're giving this as a courtesy to Kerry at this time; they're allowing him these hours to simply look at those results. But it does not seem like there is any stopping this campaign or this president to move forward and say look, we believe that we legitimately have won this election.
HEMMER: All right. Suzanne, thanks from the White House there.
Back to Soledad, now in Columbus, Ohio.
O'BRIEN: All right, Bill. Thanks. So many Americans awoke to the same question that they went to bed with? What exactly happened and more importantly, what's going to happen now?
Joining us this morning from L.A. to discuss that is Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, also a columnist for the "Los Angeles Times."
Hey, Ron.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: Any surprise here that, in fact, it's Ohio that we're looking at, and looking at, and looking at this morning?
BROWNSTEIN: No. I think, you know, we're sort of talking about whether Ohio or Florida will be the Florida of 2004. It turned out to be Ohio. It doesn't seem quite as severe in terms of the potential for overlapping and confusing litigation.
Look, we're in an extraordinary situation, two elections in a row we had one state where the margin of victory was in dispute at a time when neither man can get to 270 electoral votes without that state. No matter how Iowa and New Mexico fall today, Soledad, no one can get to 270 without Ohio. So we wait.
O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk a little more specifically about Ohio. The numbers we're getting now 135,000, 149,000 provisional ballots out there. That's 1,300 fewer than the margin of victory that President Bush has in Ohio. Ten, though, out of 88 counties are still yet to report those numbers. You listen to Andy Card. You listen to Suzanne Malveaux, who's traveling with President Bush over the last days of the campaign, and out there at the White House this morning, it's locked up, it's done. Do you -- it could be over by the end of the day. Do you think that that's likely? BROWNSTEIN: Well, I mean, you know, we probably don't have to wait that long if, in fact, the officials are saying that by 2:00, we'll know how many provisional ballots there are. We'll have a pretty clear idea at 2:00 Eastern of whether there's a realistic chance.
I believe in 2000, about 90 percent of the provisional ballots were certified as legitimate. And then, of course, John Kerry would have to win the overwhelming majority of those. So we'll have to see whether the numbers provide him enough potential.
Ohio is fascinating to look at. I mean John Kerry won three of the big swing counties that are usually the bell weathers, places like: Stark, Montgomery, Franklin. He got a big margin out of Cuyahoga County, but as in many places of the country where President Bush is strong, he is very strong. And he drove up margins in those Republican leaning counties; they went from pink to crimson. And that carried him over, as we saw in a number of places around the country -- in many places around the country last night.
O'BRIEN: Some people pointed out, the big surprise of the morning; if it's not Ohio it's the number in the popular vote for President Bush, a 3.5 million margin. Read into that. What does that say to you?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, first of all, extraordinary. We may see only three states, depending on -- or even less, depending on how Iowa and New Mexico fall. We may see only three states change from 2000 to 2004. President Bush did make some gains with some swing constituencies. Especially with Hispanics, I think an important breakthrough there.
There are some swing counties around the country, from Hillsboro County, which is Tampa in Florida to Oakland County, the suburbs of Michigan where he moved forward from 2000. But by and large, I think we saw the same pattern as we saw in the 2002 election. Which is that the Republican leaning base, the cultural conservative coalition that he has put together, really like this president. And they turn out in big numbers for him.
As in 2002, I think the lesson of this election is pretty simple. Where President Bush is strong, he is very strong. And he put up numbers that made it impossible for Democrats to overcome him in those two, real key states that we're talking about, Ohio and Florida, even though Democrats did reasonable well in a number of areas the swing areas.
O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein checking in with us this morning. Ron, thanks for your analysis and thanks for sticking with us throughout the night, as well. We appreciate it.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: It's time to bring in Daryn Kagan. She is at the CNN Center. She has got a little bit more on the results of today.
Daryn, good morning to you.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: That we do, Soledad. Good morning to you, Soledad. Let's take a look at some of those election headlines. The U.S. Senate's top Democrat is out of a job, minority leader Tom Daschle has lost the race in South Dakota. Republican John Thune will be taking his place in Congress. It's the fist time in more than five decades that a Senate party leader has lost his seat. Daschle is expected to speak later this morning.
Republicans retain control in the House of Representatives. However, Democrats were able to knock-off the GOP's longest serving member, Phillip Crane of Illinois. Crane served 35 years in Congress.
Three states have measures on the ballot to give the green light for the legalization of medical marijuana. Voters in Montana passed the measure by nearly a two to one margin. Similar measures, though, were on the ballots in Alaska and Oregon, and those were voted down.
And in California, a big win for supporters of stem cell research. The proposition was backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, gaining voter approval. The program will hand out nearly $300 million annually in stem cell funds for 10 years.
HEMMER: The business of provisional ballots still new to many of us. We're going to talk to an expert though, in a moment, on state law back in Ohio. Also the voting lines very long in Florida just as they were across the country. This year, though, things went smoothly. How did they pull it off? We'll check in that too, as we continue in a moment. Special coverage rolls on, on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. Let's begin with a look at what's happening in the Electoral College. As you can see right there, President Bush with 254 electoral votes, Senator Kerry with 252. Big number that's missing right now, of course, is what happens in the state of Ohio with its 20 electoral votes.
And in fact, with the Ohio voting results still up this morning, let's turn right to Professor Terry Enns of Ohio State University. Before joining the university she served as legal counsel for the Ohio Senate Minority Caucus.
TERRY ENNS, PROFESSOR, OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY: Good morning. Nice to see you.
ENNS: Good morning.
It's not in the courts yet. Right now, the debate seems to be really over just sheer numbers.
ENNS: Yes. The debate is whether or not the provisional ballots would be a way for Senator Kerry to overcome what's right now a margin. O'BRIEN: OK. Now, the margin as it stands right now, those provisional ballots, 1,300 less than the margin of victory that President Bush seems to have here in Ohio. But that being said, there are 10 counties where the number of provisional ballots still not known, so that could change. At what point could this go into the courts?
ENNS: I wouldn't look to the courts any time soon. What happens to happen with the provisional ballots is first it has to be ascertained whether the ballot was cast by an eligible voter. And then, if it is eligible, then it will be counted. So we have to go through a two-step process yet to see whether they were valid and then we count those votes. So, we...
O'BRIEN: There's been some legal wranglings though, about standardizing the procedure. Explain that to us and how it could affect really what it's come down to right now.
ENNS: Yes. There was a lawsuit filed yesterday, saying the secretary of state's directive of how to count those provisional ballots wasn't precise enough that we can be certain that each Board of Elections would count them in the same way. Which is required from the Bush v. Gore case. So there still could be wrangling even about how to count those ballots.
O'BRIEN: You look back historically though in 2000, we heard from the secretary of state here in Ohio that 90 percent of the provisional ballots were counted. His point being it wasn't a big deal. It wasn't that contested over these provisional ballots. Because of course, if a lot of them are thrown out, if the numbers are there to support Senator Kerry, and we're doing a lot of ifs here, then that could lead to more contentions and could lead in the courts.
ENNS: Well, those ballots were counted under Ohio's provisional ballot statute, which is different from the current Help America Vote Act provisional ballots. And the Help America Vote Act permits a much larger group of people to cast a provisional ballot. So you might expect that perhaps a few more of those would be invalidated, and not quite the 90% validity that was at the last election.
O'BRIEN: We have heard that we're going to get some kind of word from Senator Kerry's camp at some point, which is obviously very vague. Does the senator, if he wants a recount, does he have to go through the courts for that or can it just be asked for?
ENNS: No. He can ask for that through the elections process. He actually has to file -- has to wait until the official count. And then within five days of that, he can file. And he files that with the Boards of Election and the secretary of state takes over at that point.
O'BRIEN: Does it surprise you at all that we are camped out here in the cold on the day after the election, and we're talking about which way Ohio goes?
ENNS: Actually, no. Because Ohio has always had a very, very close count among the electorates, so it's not a surprise that we're waiting to see who actually won here.
O'BRIEN: Well, Professor Terry Enns, nice to see you.
ENNS: Thank you very much.
O'BRIEN: Thanks for chatting with us this morning about the legalities behind all this. We appreciate it.
ENNS: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: Well, let's head it back to Bill in New York.
HEMMER: All right, Soledad. From Columbus, Ohio back to Florida here in a moment here. Florida is spending millions to avoid a repeat this time around. We'll see if their money is worth it, as our special coverage continues on this "AMERICAN MORNING."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been a strong Bush supporter, campaigning across the country for him in recent months. Earlier today, I sat down and talked with the former mayor. He makes no mistake about how he believes this current situation should be handled.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: You believe John Kerry should concede now?
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. MAYOR, NEW YORK CITY: Yes, I do.
HEMMER: Why is that?
GIULIANI: Because it can't be done. I mean you got to face reality. I mean the president leads by 136,000 votes. That's not a slim lead. That's a 1-2 point win. I conceded elections where I lost by 42,000 votes because I felt, you know, it wouldn't be right to put the city in jeopardy of contesting an election like that. This isn't a 500-vote margin like we had in Florida. This is 136,000 votes.
HEMMER: It appears...
GIULIANI: That's a substantial win.
HEMMER: It appears the Kerry campaign said let's go to bed.
GIULIANI: Good.
HEMMER: Let's sleep on it. Let the dust settle. Wake up tomorrow, which is today...
GIULIANI: God bless him. They've got a good night sleep.
HEMMER: ... and then let's face it then.
GIULIANI: He's going to wake up this morning. He got his sleep now. It's time to concede. You've got a country at war. You've got an election that's over. You've got a president that's gotten the largest vote of any president in history. And the president has got a majority of the popular vote; even Bill Clinton didn't achieve that.
So -- and you've got a state that's out of reach, when it's 136,000 votes and you have 130,000 or so provisional ballots -- and remember, provisional ballots are ballots that get challenged. They are people where there's some infirmity in their voting status, and that's why they're doing a provisional ballot. And typically, a good number of them just get knocked out.
So that 135,000, 136,000 provisional is going to get knocked down to a much smaller number. And then he'd have to win 100% of them. And I can't believe there anyplace in the state where he's going to win 100 percent of the vote, or President Bush did.
So this is -- it think if he has good election lawyers, and I've done election lawyering too, they're going to tell him, you want to be a statesman? The way to be a statesman is to concede. Because when -- you're going to get counted out, so why not go out on a high point? And why not sort of start the whole uniting by doing the big thing?
HEMMER: I watched you about 3:00 this morning. You were on another network. And you came out in your approach, was essentially, the times are different now. This is a country at war. There are big issues out there. And the voter turnout impressed you as well.
GIULIANI: Right.
HEMMER: When you factor all that together, I'm assuming that's what leads you to this strong opinion you have at this point.
GIULIANI: Yes. Oh, sure. And also that it isn't -- it isn't Florida four years ago. It isn't 500 votes. It's 136,000 votes. The president has won Ohio. And if you count it -- if you count it 20 times or you delay it for three weeks, the president's going to win Ohio. It's inevitable.
HEMMER: Outside of Ohio, why do you...
GIULIANI: And therefore, he wins the election.
HEMMER: Why do you believe Republicans were so successful yesterday?
GIULIANI: Because the president put on a really terrific campaign. He's a great leader. The referendum yesterday was on leadership, that's why the big surprise in his margin of 3 million, in his reaching a majority where no president has done that in 16 years, including Bill Clinton.
HEMMER: But when we found after every debate, all three of them, when we went out and asked American people who they thought won, each time it was John Kerry...
GIULIANI: It did. But who did they always say... HEMMER: What explains that then and how it translates yesterday?
GIULIANI: Who did they always say was a stronger leader, even after those debates? George Bush. What the country is looking for is leadership. They saw that in George Bush. And at least 3 million more saw that in George Bush, or depending on the state your talking about.
It was a -- by modern standards, it was a big win. The fact is, the president also understands, and I'm sure that it's a divided country, and he has to -- he has to also play a big part in reaching out to the Democratics. But what I'm saying is Senator Kerry can do a really good thing in that direction here by really conceding the inevitable, but now.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: Rudy Giuliani, former of New York City mayor, earlier today here on AMERICAN MORNING.
Our special coverage, extended coverage continues in a moment, on for five hours again today. And for a second straight presidential election, it has lasted beyond the Election Day.
How long is John Kerry willing to fight? We'll have a look at that as or coverage continues.
Break here, back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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Aired November 3, 2004 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Republicans gain seats in the House and the Senate on this is AMERICAN MORNING.
ANNOUNCER: This is AMERICAN MORNING, with Bill Hemmer and Soledad O'Brien.
HEMMER: Good morning, everyone. November 3 from New York City. Ten o'clock here, as our special election coverage continues on the day after. I'm Bill Hemmer in New York and Soledad O'Brien is in Columbus.
Soledad, good morning there.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you, we're on November 3 it is not all said and done. It is not all decided. And it's a little chilly out here as we camp out in front of the State House. We're going to have more of what's happening here in Ohio in just a few moments-- Bill.
HEMMER: You're in the heart of it all right now for campaign 2004. Soledad, back to you in a moment there in Ohio.
The Bush campaign claims victory, Kerry strategist urging patience in the nation, as a presidency awaiting final results. Counting is not yet complete in three states, including Ohio. Election officials there say a final tally could be days away. Here is the electoral landscape as we see it at this hour.
CNN projects President Bush with 254 electoral votes to John Kerry 252. Results expected later today in Iowa and New Mexico. But even those will leave either candidate short of the 270 that is needed. That means Ohio will again will determine the winner.
And with Ohio now the center of this drama, much as Florida was four years ago, Soledad O'Brien arriving early, in the early hours in Columbus, Ohio. Back to the capitol there, where we join Soledad with the latest.
Good morning.
O'BRIEN: All right, Bill. Thanks. And good morning to you. It's been a long night. And it's going to prove probably to be a very long day here, certainly in Ohio. Election officials here in Ohio setting a deadline of 2:00 p.m., less than four hours from now to report on the actual number of provisional balls that have been issued. That could make the count determining who voted for who, really meaningless, because President Bush has a lead in Ohio of more than 136,000 votes.
So if the provisional ballot number is less than that, as Republicans are claiming, the president would be assured victory here in Ohio. And most importantly, really, in the Electoral College.
We're expecting, as you mentioned just a few moments ago, Bill, to he Kerry campaign. So we're going to check in first and foremost with CNN's national correspondent, Kelly Wallace. She's at Kerry headquarters in Boston for us this morning.
Hey, Kelly. Good morning.
KELLY WALLACE, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Soledad. The latest guidance we are getting from the Kerry campaign is that we should expect some sort of update or briefing sometime this morning. Campaign aides say they are taking some time to talk to their folks on the ground in Ohio, and also to talk to the experts.
The top adviser to Senator Kerry telling me earlier this morning, the campaign would be looking at the numbers. Looking at the numbers of provisional ballots, looking at President Bush and Senator Kerry, looking at the situation very carefully to determine, in the words of this adviser, what are the, quote, "realistic prospects of turning Ohio around." And then Senator Kerry would have to make the assessment and make the decision from there.
We have not seen Senator Kerry today. In fact, we did not see him last night at all, as well. We believe he is still at his Boston town house, huddling with his family, his wife Teresa, his daughters Vanessa and Alexandra and also with his staff.
The first time that Senator Kerry would not be conceding this election, at least last night, was the fact that it was Senator John Edwards who came to this crowd of supporters around 2:30 a.m. at Copley Square.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN EDWARDS (D-NC), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's been a long night. But we've waited four years for this victory. We can wait one more night.
John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election, every vote would count, and every vote would be counted.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
WALLACE: Now, Senator Kerry's motto throughout these final days had been that he would be that be taking nothing for granted. A sign of that, he sat in the chair for four hours yesterday doing 38 interviews with television stations in the key battleground states. This, as his campaign aides were feeling increasingly confidant, Soledad, as the day went on. They were looking at those exit poll numbers, numbers our own news organization saw as well, thinking that things were going Senator Kerry's way.
Fair to say, it's turned to a great deal of concern and confusion as the night wore on. And now Senator Kerry facing a very big decision, whether he continues to try and make the case that the vote count should be continuing in Ohio. Or if he believes the numbers are not on his side, and he will concede to President Bush. Again, we are expecting some sort of update from the campaign sometime this morning -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: All right. But no specific word on when we're going to hear from them? There's a -- any sense from you of a feeling there in the campaign that we could be heading into the final hours, even as they still have not counted those provisional ballots here in Ohio?
WALLACE: Well, first to the time line, you know, we were given some sense of 10:00 a.m. But campaign aides say 10:00 a.m. at the earliest. And now they're saying, you know, expect some sort of update, briefing this morning.
The second is -- really will come down to the numbers. The campaign will be looking at the same numbers we're looking at, other reporters are looking at, Ohio officials are looking at. And they will have to come to some sense when they look at the numbers, if they think the numbers are on their side. The sense, Soledad, I got from this adviser earlier this morning is if the campaign feels the numbers are not on Senator Kerry's side, that Senator Kerry would likely concede.
This adviser saying, it wouldn't be a lengthy period of time. He said, quote, "We won't make this a mystery for too long" -- Soledad.
O'BRIEN: Kelly Wallace for us. And we should mention those numbers again out of Ohio, Kelly. One hundred and thirty-five thousand, 149 is the latest number that we're getting here in Ohio. That's 1,300 fewer than the actual margin of victory that President Bush has at this point. Still with 10 of 88 counties yet to report in on their actual number of provisional ballots that they have.
And once you get to that step to calculate the number of provisional ballots that exist, period. Then the next step can take place, if it has to, which would be actually opening them and see which way the election goes at that point.
Kelly Wallace for us.
Let's head back to Bill in New York this morning -- Bill.
HEMMER: Soledad, so much of the story right now is all about numbers. And in fact, you CAN see the numbers that we're running at the bottom of our screen throughout our broadcast here. Results from across the country for that matter. Usually you will see the stock market report: the Dow 30, the NASDAQ, the S&P. You won't see that now because the screen is a bit crowded.
In the meantime though, I want to get back to the White House and Suzanne Malveaux. The Bush campaign, Suzanne, already declaring victory. Andy Card did that about 5:00 in the morning to supporters in Washington, D.C. What are they saying at this point?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Bill, there's a very important meeting that is taking place at this hour. President Bush is going on a couple hours of sleep, as much as his senior staff as well. But Vice President Dick Cheney arrived here at the White House about 45 minutes ago, as did Karen Hughes, his political adviser and image-maker, and chief confident to the president in the Oval Office with his senior advisers at this hour.
It's not a matter of whether or not the president is going to declare victory. It's simply a matter of when and how. We have been told the president is going to speak to the American people and say yes, that he did win. They are simply giving Kerry some breathing space, some room to take that second look at those results.
Now, it was last night that we heard from his Chief of Staff Andy card. He went before the thousands of people gathered at the Ronald Reagan Building to make the case why they believe the president is the clear winner. They say that the president has 286 electoral votes. He also has 3.5 million margin of popular vote. As well as, they believe, a decisive victory in Ohio. They say about 140,000-vote lead. Something that they say is insurmountable to actually pass.
And what they're most proud of, however, is the popular vote. The fact the president has garnered 51 percent to Kerry's 48 percent. They believe this makes it a legitimate win.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANDY CARD, WHITE HOUSE CHIEF OF STAFF: We are convinced that President Bush has won re-election with at least 286 Electoral College votes.
(CHEERING)
CARD: And he also had a margin of more than 3.5 million popular votes.
(CHEERING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Now, the president was very confident about his chances of winning last night when he was at the residence, gathered with family and friends watching the results. He said he believes that he was going to win, of course, this snafu over Ohio. They quickly went into work mode to figuring out the strategy, what would happen next. Initially they thought the president should go forward and declare victory anyway.
But really the political calculus here, Bill, is that they decided to pull back. They wanted to make absolutely sure that the American people believe this was a legitimate process, that this was a legitimate win. They are simply waiting for Kerry to concede. But Bush aides also saying as well, Bill, that they expect this to be wrapped up by the end of the day.
HEMMER: Suzanne, are you aware of any contact between the two camps at this point?
MALVEAUX: Well, so far they are huddled; the Bush camp is huddled at this hour, trying to figure out what their strategy is. We're not aware they're with the Kerry camp at all. There's a great deal of confidence among this group that they have this locked up. But they're giving this as a courtesy to Kerry at this time; they're allowing him these hours to simply look at those results. But it does not seem like there is any stopping this campaign or this president to move forward and say look, we believe that we legitimately have won this election.
HEMMER: All right. Suzanne, thanks from the White House there.
Back to Soledad, now in Columbus, Ohio.
O'BRIEN: All right, Bill. Thanks. So many Americans awoke to the same question that they went to bed with? What exactly happened and more importantly, what's going to happen now?
Joining us this morning from L.A. to discuss that is Ron Brownstein, CNN political analyst, also a columnist for the "Los Angeles Times."
Hey, Ron.
RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
O'BRIEN: Any surprise here that, in fact, it's Ohio that we're looking at, and looking at, and looking at this morning?
BROWNSTEIN: No. I think, you know, we're sort of talking about whether Ohio or Florida will be the Florida of 2004. It turned out to be Ohio. It doesn't seem quite as severe in terms of the potential for overlapping and confusing litigation.
Look, we're in an extraordinary situation, two elections in a row we had one state where the margin of victory was in dispute at a time when neither man can get to 270 electoral votes without that state. No matter how Iowa and New Mexico fall today, Soledad, no one can get to 270 without Ohio. So we wait.
O'BRIEN: All right. Let's talk a little more specifically about Ohio. The numbers we're getting now 135,000, 149,000 provisional ballots out there. That's 1,300 fewer than the margin of victory that President Bush has in Ohio. Ten, though, out of 88 counties are still yet to report those numbers. You listen to Andy Card. You listen to Suzanne Malveaux, who's traveling with President Bush over the last days of the campaign, and out there at the White House this morning, it's locked up, it's done. Do you -- it could be over by the end of the day. Do you think that that's likely? BROWNSTEIN: Well, I mean, you know, we probably don't have to wait that long if, in fact, the officials are saying that by 2:00, we'll know how many provisional ballots there are. We'll have a pretty clear idea at 2:00 Eastern of whether there's a realistic chance.
I believe in 2000, about 90 percent of the provisional ballots were certified as legitimate. And then, of course, John Kerry would have to win the overwhelming majority of those. So we'll have to see whether the numbers provide him enough potential.
Ohio is fascinating to look at. I mean John Kerry won three of the big swing counties that are usually the bell weathers, places like: Stark, Montgomery, Franklin. He got a big margin out of Cuyahoga County, but as in many places of the country where President Bush is strong, he is very strong. And he drove up margins in those Republican leaning counties; they went from pink to crimson. And that carried him over, as we saw in a number of places around the country -- in many places around the country last night.
O'BRIEN: Some people pointed out, the big surprise of the morning; if it's not Ohio it's the number in the popular vote for President Bush, a 3.5 million margin. Read into that. What does that say to you?
BROWNSTEIN: Well, first of all, extraordinary. We may see only three states, depending on -- or even less, depending on how Iowa and New Mexico fall. We may see only three states change from 2000 to 2004. President Bush did make some gains with some swing constituencies. Especially with Hispanics, I think an important breakthrough there.
There are some swing counties around the country, from Hillsboro County, which is Tampa in Florida to Oakland County, the suburbs of Michigan where he moved forward from 2000. But by and large, I think we saw the same pattern as we saw in the 2002 election. Which is that the Republican leaning base, the cultural conservative coalition that he has put together, really like this president. And they turn out in big numbers for him.
As in 2002, I think the lesson of this election is pretty simple. Where President Bush is strong, he is very strong. And he put up numbers that made it impossible for Democrats to overcome him in those two, real key states that we're talking about, Ohio and Florida, even though Democrats did reasonable well in a number of areas the swing areas.
O'BRIEN: Ron Brownstein checking in with us this morning. Ron, thanks for your analysis and thanks for sticking with us throughout the night, as well. We appreciate it.
BROWNSTEIN: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: It's time to bring in Daryn Kagan. She is at the CNN Center. She has got a little bit more on the results of today.
Daryn, good morning to you.
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: That we do, Soledad. Good morning to you, Soledad. Let's take a look at some of those election headlines. The U.S. Senate's top Democrat is out of a job, minority leader Tom Daschle has lost the race in South Dakota. Republican John Thune will be taking his place in Congress. It's the fist time in more than five decades that a Senate party leader has lost his seat. Daschle is expected to speak later this morning.
Republicans retain control in the House of Representatives. However, Democrats were able to knock-off the GOP's longest serving member, Phillip Crane of Illinois. Crane served 35 years in Congress.
Three states have measures on the ballot to give the green light for the legalization of medical marijuana. Voters in Montana passed the measure by nearly a two to one margin. Similar measures, though, were on the ballots in Alaska and Oregon, and those were voted down.
And in California, a big win for supporters of stem cell research. The proposition was backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, gaining voter approval. The program will hand out nearly $300 million annually in stem cell funds for 10 years.
HEMMER: The business of provisional ballots still new to many of us. We're going to talk to an expert though, in a moment, on state law back in Ohio. Also the voting lines very long in Florida just as they were across the country. This year, though, things went smoothly. How did they pull it off? We'll check in that too, as we continue in a moment. Special coverage rolls on, on this AMERICAN MORNING.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O'BRIEN: Welcome back, everybody. Let's begin with a look at what's happening in the Electoral College. As you can see right there, President Bush with 254 electoral votes, Senator Kerry with 252. Big number that's missing right now, of course, is what happens in the state of Ohio with its 20 electoral votes.
And in fact, with the Ohio voting results still up this morning, let's turn right to Professor Terry Enns of Ohio State University. Before joining the university she served as legal counsel for the Ohio Senate Minority Caucus.
TERRY ENNS, PROFESSOR, OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY: Good morning. Nice to see you.
ENNS: Good morning.
It's not in the courts yet. Right now, the debate seems to be really over just sheer numbers.
ENNS: Yes. The debate is whether or not the provisional ballots would be a way for Senator Kerry to overcome what's right now a margin. O'BRIEN: OK. Now, the margin as it stands right now, those provisional ballots, 1,300 less than the margin of victory that President Bush seems to have here in Ohio. But that being said, there are 10 counties where the number of provisional ballots still not known, so that could change. At what point could this go into the courts?
ENNS: I wouldn't look to the courts any time soon. What happens to happen with the provisional ballots is first it has to be ascertained whether the ballot was cast by an eligible voter. And then, if it is eligible, then it will be counted. So we have to go through a two-step process yet to see whether they were valid and then we count those votes. So, we...
O'BRIEN: There's been some legal wranglings though, about standardizing the procedure. Explain that to us and how it could affect really what it's come down to right now.
ENNS: Yes. There was a lawsuit filed yesterday, saying the secretary of state's directive of how to count those provisional ballots wasn't precise enough that we can be certain that each Board of Elections would count them in the same way. Which is required from the Bush v. Gore case. So there still could be wrangling even about how to count those ballots.
O'BRIEN: You look back historically though in 2000, we heard from the secretary of state here in Ohio that 90 percent of the provisional ballots were counted. His point being it wasn't a big deal. It wasn't that contested over these provisional ballots. Because of course, if a lot of them are thrown out, if the numbers are there to support Senator Kerry, and we're doing a lot of ifs here, then that could lead to more contentions and could lead in the courts.
ENNS: Well, those ballots were counted under Ohio's provisional ballot statute, which is different from the current Help America Vote Act provisional ballots. And the Help America Vote Act permits a much larger group of people to cast a provisional ballot. So you might expect that perhaps a few more of those would be invalidated, and not quite the 90% validity that was at the last election.
O'BRIEN: We have heard that we're going to get some kind of word from Senator Kerry's camp at some point, which is obviously very vague. Does the senator, if he wants a recount, does he have to go through the courts for that or can it just be asked for?
ENNS: No. He can ask for that through the elections process. He actually has to file -- has to wait until the official count. And then within five days of that, he can file. And he files that with the Boards of Election and the secretary of state takes over at that point.
O'BRIEN: Does it surprise you at all that we are camped out here in the cold on the day after the election, and we're talking about which way Ohio goes?
ENNS: Actually, no. Because Ohio has always had a very, very close count among the electorates, so it's not a surprise that we're waiting to see who actually won here.
O'BRIEN: Well, Professor Terry Enns, nice to see you.
ENNS: Thank you very much.
O'BRIEN: Thanks for chatting with us this morning about the legalities behind all this. We appreciate it.
ENNS: Thank you.
O'BRIEN: Well, let's head it back to Bill in New York.
HEMMER: All right, Soledad. From Columbus, Ohio back to Florida here in a moment here. Florida is spending millions to avoid a repeat this time around. We'll see if their money is worth it, as our special coverage continues on this "AMERICAN MORNING."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HEMMER: Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been a strong Bush supporter, campaigning across the country for him in recent months. Earlier today, I sat down and talked with the former mayor. He makes no mistake about how he believes this current situation should be handled.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: You believe John Kerry should concede now?
RUDY GIULIANI (R), FMR. MAYOR, NEW YORK CITY: Yes, I do.
HEMMER: Why is that?
GIULIANI: Because it can't be done. I mean you got to face reality. I mean the president leads by 136,000 votes. That's not a slim lead. That's a 1-2 point win. I conceded elections where I lost by 42,000 votes because I felt, you know, it wouldn't be right to put the city in jeopardy of contesting an election like that. This isn't a 500-vote margin like we had in Florida. This is 136,000 votes.
HEMMER: It appears...
GIULIANI: That's a substantial win.
HEMMER: It appears the Kerry campaign said let's go to bed.
GIULIANI: Good.
HEMMER: Let's sleep on it. Let the dust settle. Wake up tomorrow, which is today...
GIULIANI: God bless him. They've got a good night sleep.
HEMMER: ... and then let's face it then.
GIULIANI: He's going to wake up this morning. He got his sleep now. It's time to concede. You've got a country at war. You've got an election that's over. You've got a president that's gotten the largest vote of any president in history. And the president has got a majority of the popular vote; even Bill Clinton didn't achieve that.
So -- and you've got a state that's out of reach, when it's 136,000 votes and you have 130,000 or so provisional ballots -- and remember, provisional ballots are ballots that get challenged. They are people where there's some infirmity in their voting status, and that's why they're doing a provisional ballot. And typically, a good number of them just get knocked out.
So that 135,000, 136,000 provisional is going to get knocked down to a much smaller number. And then he'd have to win 100% of them. And I can't believe there anyplace in the state where he's going to win 100 percent of the vote, or President Bush did.
So this is -- it think if he has good election lawyers, and I've done election lawyering too, they're going to tell him, you want to be a statesman? The way to be a statesman is to concede. Because when -- you're going to get counted out, so why not go out on a high point? And why not sort of start the whole uniting by doing the big thing?
HEMMER: I watched you about 3:00 this morning. You were on another network. And you came out in your approach, was essentially, the times are different now. This is a country at war. There are big issues out there. And the voter turnout impressed you as well.
GIULIANI: Right.
HEMMER: When you factor all that together, I'm assuming that's what leads you to this strong opinion you have at this point.
GIULIANI: Yes. Oh, sure. And also that it isn't -- it isn't Florida four years ago. It isn't 500 votes. It's 136,000 votes. The president has won Ohio. And if you count it -- if you count it 20 times or you delay it for three weeks, the president's going to win Ohio. It's inevitable.
HEMMER: Outside of Ohio, why do you...
GIULIANI: And therefore, he wins the election.
HEMMER: Why do you believe Republicans were so successful yesterday?
GIULIANI: Because the president put on a really terrific campaign. He's a great leader. The referendum yesterday was on leadership, that's why the big surprise in his margin of 3 million, in his reaching a majority where no president has done that in 16 years, including Bill Clinton.
HEMMER: But when we found after every debate, all three of them, when we went out and asked American people who they thought won, each time it was John Kerry...
GIULIANI: It did. But who did they always say... HEMMER: What explains that then and how it translates yesterday?
GIULIANI: Who did they always say was a stronger leader, even after those debates? George Bush. What the country is looking for is leadership. They saw that in George Bush. And at least 3 million more saw that in George Bush, or depending on the state your talking about.
It was a -- by modern standards, it was a big win. The fact is, the president also understands, and I'm sure that it's a divided country, and he has to -- he has to also play a big part in reaching out to the Democratics. But what I'm saying is Senator Kerry can do a really good thing in that direction here by really conceding the inevitable, but now.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HEMMER: Rudy Giuliani, former of New York City mayor, earlier today here on AMERICAN MORNING.
Our special coverage, extended coverage continues in a moment, on for five hours again today. And for a second straight presidential election, it has lasted beyond the Election Day.
How long is John Kerry willing to fight? We'll have a look at that as or coverage continues.
Break here, back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
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