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American Morning

Assault on Falluja; Interview With Peter Khalil; Supreme Issues

Aired November 08, 2004 - 8:59   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. Nine o'clock here in New York City on a Monday. Kelly Wallace working for Soledad today.
She's out. You're in. How are you?

KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Busy news morning, indeed.

HEMMER: That it is. The Yasser Arafat situation, what's happening in Iraq.

So we continue again this hour now, where thousands of troops now getting ready for that assault on Falluja. This time is not the first time, though, that coalition forces have tried to route out the insurgency there. Six months ago they were at it.

We'll talk to a former coalition official about the mistakes made during an April assault in that town in a moment here. So stay tuned for that.

WALLACE: Also, Bill, the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Actress Mia Farrow is trying to bring more attention to the situation there. She and her son are touring the Darfur region with UNICEF. Later this hour, Farrow will share with us her first-hand impressions.

HEMMER: So Jack Cafferty on a Monday morning.

Good morning.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you. Hi, Bill.

President Bush, how big of a debt does he owe to the conservative wing of the Republican Party? They turned out in big numbers as he won reelection to a second term.

Is it payback time now? And if so, how might the president choose to settle up with the right wing? Am@cnn.com is the e-mail address. We'll read some letters later.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.

Daryn Kagan is with us also at the CNN Center, watching the news now. Let's get to Daryn now at the CNN Center.

Good morning. DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Bill.

"Now in the News," a Palestinian delegation is now en route to Paris. Officials left Ramallah just about an hour ago. Their trip to France was in doubt after Arafat's wife accused officials of wanting to "bury her husband alive." The 75-year-old Arafat has been in a coma for at least three days.

France is evacuating some 100 people from the Ivory Coast, calling the situation there very critical. At least nine French peacekeepers and an American citizen were killed over the weekend when an Ivory Coast warplane bombed a French base. The attack led to widespread anti-French demonstrations and looting. Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo is urging citizens to remain calm.

An investigation is under way this hour into what caused a high- speed train to crash in southern England. At least seven people were killed Saturday when the train hit a car or the tracks and slipped of the rails. British police are trying to determine if the car stalled due to mechanical failure or if the accident was caused by the driver committing suicide.

And in California, jurors in the Scott Peterson trial resume deliberations in less than three hours. The jury is set to take another look at Peterson's boat this morning. Prosecutors claim Peterson used the boat to dump the body of his pregnant wife in San Francisco Bay. Jurors have spent the weekend under tight supervision to make sure they weren't listening the news or discussing the case.

That means no Internet either -- Bill. Back to you.

HEMMER: Got to consider that now, don't you?

KAGAN: Yes, you sure do.

HEMMER: Thank you, Daryn.

Warplanes hammer targets again overnight, and Iraqis are now under their first full day of emergency rule. Karl Penhaul is embedded with the U.S. Marines near Falluja. He joins us again by way of videophone.

And Karl, good afternoon there.

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, there, Bill.

We're, in fact, just a few minutes away now from sunset here. And as night falls, we have seen some more flashes of heavy artillery pounding some positions inside of Falluja, certainly on the very edges of Falluja. That very much fits the pattern of what we've seen in the course of the day -- artillery fire.

We've also seen tank fire from their position a little way south of us. Two insurgent positions inside the city. We've also seen U.S. jets bombarding parts of the city. We're about a mile and a half from the northern edge of Falluja. Talking to one of the battalion commanders here, he said that most of those buildings that have been targeted in the course of the day have been forward observation posts, posts that a small number of insurgents are using to keep track of the movement of U.S. Marines and the U.S. Army on the outskirts of Falluja.

Now, behind me, a group of Marine infantrymen are dug into trenches. They've been waiting now for most part of the day. Among the kits that they've been issued with are gas masks. U.S. military intelligence analysts believe that there is a risk that the insurgents inside of Falluja may have small quantities of nerve agent or some kind of gas that they could use against U.S. troops in the event of the assault on Falluja. The other big threats, of course are coming from suicide bombers, booby-trapped buildings, and also car bombs.

During the day, U.S. military commanders have characterized as very low the level of resistance that has come from the Iraqi insurgents believed to be holed up in Falluja. That's perhaps because they're waiting to lure the Marines inside the city limits.

They're not going to waste time fighting for dead ground between here and the city limits, except for perhaps laying tank traps in some of the sand berms across there. But they are going to fight and try to lure the Marines inside the city limits to fight on their own terms.

Now, of course, the U.S. Marines very good at fighting. They have night vision equipment.

We are few minutes away from sunset. We do expect that some time in the night, that is if a ground assault is -- if it's going to begin today, then that is when it could begin, at night, when the U.S. Marines have advantage on their side. As we speak, again, we're seeing a number of tank rounds slamming into suspected insurgent positions on the eastern edge of Falluja -- Bill.

HEMMER: Karl Penhaul embedded there with the U.S. Marines by way of videophone. Thanks.

Back in this country now, let's try and figure out how this might unfold. Peter Khalil was a member of the Coalition Provisional Authority and participated in negotiations with leaders back in April. He left the country in May and is now a visiting fellow of the Brookings Institution Saban Center. My guest now live in D.C.

Sir, good morning to you. We really appreciate your time today because you know this as well as anyone.

PETER KHALIL, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTE: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: From last April until now, a period of about six months, how much has changed inside of Falluja in that period?

KHALIL: Well, a lot has changed in Falluja in that period. The foreign fighters and some of the more fundamentalist Iraqi insurgents have taken control, obviously, of that city. But the good news is, and I want to point out, that back in April, when we spoke to some of the tribal leaders of Falluja, they characterized the foreigners as destroyers, and they were quite keen to have them removed from the city. So it's not a unified insurgency, and that's some good news for the U.S. troops and the Iraqi troops going in.

HEMMER: You have also made a comment saying that there were more people who -- who support the changing of the government in Iraq than they do the insurgency. How do you arrive at that conclusion, and is there some sort of percentage breakdown that you can offer us today?

KHALIL: Well, if you look at the insurgent fighters across Iraq, there's probably about 20,000 in a country of 26 million. Probably about 100,000, 150,000 across the country are supporting those fighters by providing shelter and food and so on.

The percentages in Falluja are probably a bit higher because a lot of the ex-Ba'athists come from those cities in Ramadi and so on. But it's certainly not a nationally-based popular insurgency in that sense.

You've got about 5,000 insurgents in Falluja at the moment. The problem is the 50,000 remaining civilians in Falluja are young men aged between 18 and 45. And if they join the ranks of the insurgents or are forced to fight against the Marines, that could be a problem for our -- for our troops.

HEMMER: Yes. I have read -- there are reports that say the U.S. Marines have put what's known as kill numbers on their uniforms, expecting the possibility of casualties. What do you make of that report? And for our viewers, what is a kill number?

KHALIL: Well, I think it's -- it's not good news, because it shows that the Marines are prepared for a high number of casualties amongst U.S. troops and possibly Iraqi troops, as well. It means, though, that they are going to be going through Falluja, house by house, block by block, to flush out the insurgents, to flush out the terrorists.

In the long run, it's actually going to save American lives because some of the previous tactics of standoff precision munitions have probably been counterproductive by increasing the ranks of the insurgents. When you hit a house of two to three terrorists, you probably take out the next door neighbor and kill some civilians. And brothers, uncles and fathers join the insurgents.

So this time the -- it seems clear that the Marines are not going to do that. U.S. Special Forces are also going to be involved.

HEMMER: I know you're clear that you believe for elections to happen you need a majority of Iraqis to participate in that. And that is key to getting control of Falluja. But even if that happens -- and a military analyst last hour said this is a battle that may last five days, it may last five weeks. But even if you're successful in Falluja, how long are you from the prospect of gaining control over the country when you consider the rest of the Sunni Triangle, places like Baghdad and the town of Ramadi nearby?

KHALIL: Bill, there's about 22 Sunni towns and cities which are -- need to be re-taken under Iraqi government control for elections to be successful. My view is that, worse than not having elections at all, delaying them in January, is having elections in which only 70 percent or 75 percent of the population participating. That is, the Sunnis not participating.

It would create an illegitimate government. And it's better to delay it in that case. So you need to retake those towns and cities, but, more importantly, you need to stabilize them in the second step. And then Iraqi forces become very important in their job to set up the conditions to allow the Sunnis to come out and participate in the election.

HEMMER: Peter Khalil from the Saban Center in D.C. Thank you for your time this morning.

KHALIL: Thank you, Bill.

HEMMER: Kelly.

WALLACE: Thanks, Bill.

Turning our attention to the Supreme Court. With chief justice of the United States, William Rehnquist, off the bench for cancer treatment, the high court's dynamic has changed. National correspondent Bob Franken is live in Washington with more on that.

And Bob, how has Rehnquist's illness affected the dynamic of the court?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, first of all, it certainly put a lot of attention on the possibility of succession, an issue that didn't come up in the campaign as much as many had hoped. We're going to watch this morning to see if there is a big surprise and he reappears on the bench, although that's considered unlikely, as arguments resume.

The internal workings of the court have been quite significantly influenced. Rehnquist, although he is somebody who has always been controversial on the outside, has been known as a man who created collegiality. Quite the conciliator, somebody who worked very much on the personal dynamics and saw to it that decisions did not necessarily cause a lack of friendship on the part of the justices.

When you talk to the justices, as you get to do every once in a while, they talk about the fact how each of them likes each other so much in spite of the fact that they are so oftentimes fragmented on their beliefs. So there is that.

There is also, of course, the unavoidable fact that there is discussion about a successor. And we should point out that there has been no resignation, no retirement, nothing yet to suggest that there's actually going to be one. But of course, Chief Justice Rehnquist is quite ill. He has been participating in the conferences we're told from his home, with the help of his chief clerk. But he has not been here for the Friday discussion.

He is participating, we are told, in the formation of opinions that are going to be coming out. But there is also the talk about successors and all kinds of scenarios.

Among the scenarios that's been discussed for a long time is the elevation of one of the sitting justice and the discussion that possibly that would be Clarence Thomas, which, of course, would create quite a controversy when that confirmation nomination got to Capitol Hill. You'll remember that there was one the first time around.

There was also some speculation about others who might replace the chief justice if he stepped down. The names such as the current White House counsel, Alberto Gonzalez, although he, himself, is controversial.

Also discussion about a recess appointment. That would be the president deciding to put somebody in while Congress was not meeting, as it is not now meeting, who would hold the office until the end of the congressional term, which would be late in 2006.

All of those are being discussed. As a matter of fact, there's a case that could be decided very soon at the Supreme Court about an appellate judge who got a recess from President Bush. Lots going on, lots of discussions about possibly an internal appointment of chief justice, if there is an opening, possibilities of others.

The recess appointments, by the way, there have been three in modern times, all by President Eisenhower, including the chief justice, Earl Warren. Lots of speculation, all of it based on something we don't know is fact yet, Kelly, and that is whether Rehnquist will become the first justice to leave the court in a long time.

WALLACE: All right. Bob Franken with lots of speculation outside the U.S. Supreme Court. Bob, great to see you. Thanks so much -- Bill.

HEMMER: About 12 minutes past the hour now. Back to weather and Chad Myers at the CNN Center.

It's blowing in here, autumn, that is. Hey, Chad. How are you?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: You need to close the door, I'm afraid, Bill. And close all the windows, as well.

(WEATHER REPORT)

HEMMER: All right. Chad, thanks. We'll continue to watch that.

WALLACE: Looking nice and warm out West there.

Well, still to come here on AMERICAN MORNING, why does the Scott Peterson jury want to see a certain piece of evidence again? We'll ask a former prosecutor what he thinks.

HEMMER: Also, UNICEF using star power to try and bring more attention to the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Actress Mia Farrow is our guest in a moment here from Africa.

WALLACE: And a dip in the road leads to a dip in the pool and a very lucky rescue for a tractor driver. That's all ahead right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WALLACE: Jurors deciding the double murder case against Scott Peterson will be back at work today. The panel deliberated three days last week and was sequestered over the weekend. Dean Johnson, former San Mateo County prosecutor, joins us now from Redwood City, California.

Dean Johnson, good to see you. Thanks for being with us.

DEAN JOHNSON, FMR. SAN MATEO COUNTY PROSECUTOR: Thank you. Good morning.

WALLACE: Well, as you know, the jury has asked to see Scott Peterson's boat today. This is the boat that prosecutors charge he used to dump wife Laci's body. Now, this is after the jury has already looked at the search warrant about his house and the warehouse. What do you think this all means?

JOHNSON: Well, I think there's a pattern here. It seems that this jury has decided to very systematically trace Laci's steps on that fateful morning.

They started looking at evidence related to the bedroom, a clothes hamper and such. They then seemed to move to the kitchen of the Peterson residence. And now it appears that they have moved out of the house and are looking at the boat, which suggests that they are at least entertaining the possibilities that Laci, herself, was taken out of the house and put in the boat on that fateful day.

WALLACE: The jury obviously deliberating three days, going into the fourth day. The longer the jury is out, which side is it believed to help more, the defense or the prosecution?

JOHNSON: Oh, I think the conventional courthouse wisdom is that a long verdict in a homicide case favors the prosecution. But I don't think you can draw any conclusions in this case.

Remember, this is a unique case, probably the most scrutinized trial in history. This jury knows that Scott Peterson's life is at stake, that justice for Laci Peterson is at stake, and they know that the whole world is watching will be second-guessing everything they do. So I think they're going to take a fairly long time to make sure that they've done the right thing.

WALLACE: Tell us a little bit about jury person number 11. Juror number 11, who is supposed to have elective surgery this week, which means if that juror has to leave for surgery, that juror would have to be replaced by an alternate, is that right?

JOHNSON: Well, that's true. And that would mean that they can't just start in midstream with a new juror. They have to go back to the beginning and start deliberations all over again.

That's one of two critical dates that's coming up, the juror's surgery, and also the Thursday holiday. I think given those two critical dates, the jury is probably wanting to wind this case up some time this week, possibly Wednesday, before the holiday.

WALLACE: And tell us a little bit about juror number five, the foreperson of this jury. We understand 19 notebooks filled with details. What is the sense of how this foreperson is conducting deliberations behind had scenes?

JOHNSON: Well, you know, we knew that juror number five would probably be the foreperson, certainly the jury leader. He is a very meticulous note-taker. He has volumes and volumes of notes.

He also happens to be both a lawyer and a doctor. The betting here is that this juror is going to be, at this point, a pro- prosecution juror partly because he's so meticulous.

And remember that the primary defense witness was a medical expert who just absolutely melted down on the stand. And this juror, being so meticulous and himself being a doctor, I think is going to have no patience with sloppy medical work.

WALLACE: What else are you going to expect from this jury? You're likely to hear them want to hear some read-backs of witness testimony, more exhibits? What is your sense of what we can expect in the jury in the coming days?

JOHNSON: Well, if they follow their continuing pattern, I would expect they would want to look at photographs of the bay to look at the geography of where the bodies were recovered. And we may also begin to hear them asking for the read-back of testimony of whatever witnesses they think are critical.

WALLACE: All right. Dean Johnson, we'll be watching and talking to you. Thanks so much. Dean Johnson, former San Mateo County prosecutor. Great to talk to you -- Bill.

HEMMER: Going to get a break here in a moment.

U.S. Marines waiting now for the final command to attack Falluja. We'll take you there live in a moment to find out what's happening now. Almost sundown in Iraq.

And Paula Radcliffe, the winner of the New York City Marathon 2004, a thrilling finish. A close finish, especially with all the baggage she was carrying from the games in Athens. We'll talk to her about it in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HEMMER: All right. Back to Jack.

Welcome back.

CAFFERTY: It's Nevada, by the way.

WALLACE: OK. We're debating about Nevada, Nevada.

CAFFERTY: Nevada.

WALLACE: Nevada.

CAFFERTY: The conservative wing of the Republican Party turned out in big numbers to help President Bush to a second term in last week's elections. Is there a debt to the conservatives? And if so, what will the "thank you" note look like? How far will the president go to repay his debt to conservatives is the question.

Carolyn writes: "As a true conservative, I hope that Bush will look at the real issues confronting America and the world: what needs to be done in Iraq, how we'll stop terrorism, how will we compete with China for our own jobs? What will we do about the fact that Putin is moving Russia back toward a dictatorship? I hope Bush will stay away from religious issues."

Randy in Commack, New York: "Bush won't repay any debts. These far right conservative issues are too valuable to resolve. They will stay unresolved in order to be used in the next election."

Interesting.

Jim: "The gay marriage amendment is a red herring. Karl Rove will offer Pat Robertson's folks this to take their minds off abortion. Pretty shrewd."

And Christine writes: "It is clear that there is a lull in the political world right now, and this question is evidence of that."

Touche, Christine.

WALLACE: Well, you know, we're trying to keep political discussion going a week after the election.

CAFFERTY: Yes. Christine is right.

WALLACE: Christine...

CAFFERTY: It's pretty lame.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.

CAFFERTY: Yes.

HEMMER: Let's get a shot now of "90-Second Pop" in a moment on a Monday morning.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) (MUSIC)

HEMMER (voice-over): Is there anything worse than being insulted, humiliated and taken advantage of by your boss? Yes, there is something even worse.

And the four comics competing for a dream job, and their auditions broadcast live on TV.

Stay with us on CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)


Aired November 8, 2004 - 8:59   ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. Nine o'clock here in New York City on a Monday. Kelly Wallace working for Soledad today.
She's out. You're in. How are you?

KELLY WALLACE, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. Busy news morning, indeed.

HEMMER: That it is. The Yasser Arafat situation, what's happening in Iraq.

So we continue again this hour now, where thousands of troops now getting ready for that assault on Falluja. This time is not the first time, though, that coalition forces have tried to route out the insurgency there. Six months ago they were at it.

We'll talk to a former coalition official about the mistakes made during an April assault in that town in a moment here. So stay tuned for that.

WALLACE: Also, Bill, the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Actress Mia Farrow is trying to bring more attention to the situation there. She and her son are touring the Darfur region with UNICEF. Later this hour, Farrow will share with us her first-hand impressions.

HEMMER: So Jack Cafferty on a Monday morning.

Good morning.

JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you. Hi, Bill.

President Bush, how big of a debt does he owe to the conservative wing of the Republican Party? They turned out in big numbers as he won reelection to a second term.

Is it payback time now? And if so, how might the president choose to settle up with the right wing? Am@cnn.com is the e-mail address. We'll read some letters later.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.

Daryn Kagan is with us also at the CNN Center, watching the news now. Let's get to Daryn now at the CNN Center.

Good morning. DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, Bill.

"Now in the News," a Palestinian delegation is now en route to Paris. Officials left Ramallah just about an hour ago. Their trip to France was in doubt after Arafat's wife accused officials of wanting to "bury her husband alive." The 75-year-old Arafat has been in a coma for at least three days.

France is evacuating some 100 people from the Ivory Coast, calling the situation there very critical. At least nine French peacekeepers and an American citizen were killed over the weekend when an Ivory Coast warplane bombed a French base. The attack led to widespread anti-French demonstrations and looting. Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo is urging citizens to remain calm.

An investigation is under way this hour into what caused a high- speed train to crash in southern England. At least seven people were killed Saturday when the train hit a car or the tracks and slipped of the rails. British police are trying to determine if the car stalled due to mechanical failure or if the accident was caused by the driver committing suicide.

And in California, jurors in the Scott Peterson trial resume deliberations in less than three hours. The jury is set to take another look at Peterson's boat this morning. Prosecutors claim Peterson used the boat to dump the body of his pregnant wife in San Francisco Bay. Jurors have spent the weekend under tight supervision to make sure they weren't listening the news or discussing the case.

That means no Internet either -- Bill. Back to you.

HEMMER: Got to consider that now, don't you?

KAGAN: Yes, you sure do.

HEMMER: Thank you, Daryn.

Warplanes hammer targets again overnight, and Iraqis are now under their first full day of emergency rule. Karl Penhaul is embedded with the U.S. Marines near Falluja. He joins us again by way of videophone.

And Karl, good afternoon there.

KARL PENHAUL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, there, Bill.

We're, in fact, just a few minutes away now from sunset here. And as night falls, we have seen some more flashes of heavy artillery pounding some positions inside of Falluja, certainly on the very edges of Falluja. That very much fits the pattern of what we've seen in the course of the day -- artillery fire.

We've also seen tank fire from their position a little way south of us. Two insurgent positions inside the city. We've also seen U.S. jets bombarding parts of the city. We're about a mile and a half from the northern edge of Falluja. Talking to one of the battalion commanders here, he said that most of those buildings that have been targeted in the course of the day have been forward observation posts, posts that a small number of insurgents are using to keep track of the movement of U.S. Marines and the U.S. Army on the outskirts of Falluja.

Now, behind me, a group of Marine infantrymen are dug into trenches. They've been waiting now for most part of the day. Among the kits that they've been issued with are gas masks. U.S. military intelligence analysts believe that there is a risk that the insurgents inside of Falluja may have small quantities of nerve agent or some kind of gas that they could use against U.S. troops in the event of the assault on Falluja. The other big threats, of course are coming from suicide bombers, booby-trapped buildings, and also car bombs.

During the day, U.S. military commanders have characterized as very low the level of resistance that has come from the Iraqi insurgents believed to be holed up in Falluja. That's perhaps because they're waiting to lure the Marines inside the city limits.

They're not going to waste time fighting for dead ground between here and the city limits, except for perhaps laying tank traps in some of the sand berms across there. But they are going to fight and try to lure the Marines inside the city limits to fight on their own terms.

Now, of course, the U.S. Marines very good at fighting. They have night vision equipment.

We are few minutes away from sunset. We do expect that some time in the night, that is if a ground assault is -- if it's going to begin today, then that is when it could begin, at night, when the U.S. Marines have advantage on their side. As we speak, again, we're seeing a number of tank rounds slamming into suspected insurgent positions on the eastern edge of Falluja -- Bill.

HEMMER: Karl Penhaul embedded there with the U.S. Marines by way of videophone. Thanks.

Back in this country now, let's try and figure out how this might unfold. Peter Khalil was a member of the Coalition Provisional Authority and participated in negotiations with leaders back in April. He left the country in May and is now a visiting fellow of the Brookings Institution Saban Center. My guest now live in D.C.

Sir, good morning to you. We really appreciate your time today because you know this as well as anyone.

PETER KHALIL, SABAN CENTER AT BROOKINGS INSTITUTE: Good morning, Bill.

HEMMER: From last April until now, a period of about six months, how much has changed inside of Falluja in that period?

KHALIL: Well, a lot has changed in Falluja in that period. The foreign fighters and some of the more fundamentalist Iraqi insurgents have taken control, obviously, of that city. But the good news is, and I want to point out, that back in April, when we spoke to some of the tribal leaders of Falluja, they characterized the foreigners as destroyers, and they were quite keen to have them removed from the city. So it's not a unified insurgency, and that's some good news for the U.S. troops and the Iraqi troops going in.

HEMMER: You have also made a comment saying that there were more people who -- who support the changing of the government in Iraq than they do the insurgency. How do you arrive at that conclusion, and is there some sort of percentage breakdown that you can offer us today?

KHALIL: Well, if you look at the insurgent fighters across Iraq, there's probably about 20,000 in a country of 26 million. Probably about 100,000, 150,000 across the country are supporting those fighters by providing shelter and food and so on.

The percentages in Falluja are probably a bit higher because a lot of the ex-Ba'athists come from those cities in Ramadi and so on. But it's certainly not a nationally-based popular insurgency in that sense.

You've got about 5,000 insurgents in Falluja at the moment. The problem is the 50,000 remaining civilians in Falluja are young men aged between 18 and 45. And if they join the ranks of the insurgents or are forced to fight against the Marines, that could be a problem for our -- for our troops.

HEMMER: Yes. I have read -- there are reports that say the U.S. Marines have put what's known as kill numbers on their uniforms, expecting the possibility of casualties. What do you make of that report? And for our viewers, what is a kill number?

KHALIL: Well, I think it's -- it's not good news, because it shows that the Marines are prepared for a high number of casualties amongst U.S. troops and possibly Iraqi troops, as well. It means, though, that they are going to be going through Falluja, house by house, block by block, to flush out the insurgents, to flush out the terrorists.

In the long run, it's actually going to save American lives because some of the previous tactics of standoff precision munitions have probably been counterproductive by increasing the ranks of the insurgents. When you hit a house of two to three terrorists, you probably take out the next door neighbor and kill some civilians. And brothers, uncles and fathers join the insurgents.

So this time the -- it seems clear that the Marines are not going to do that. U.S. Special Forces are also going to be involved.

HEMMER: I know you're clear that you believe for elections to happen you need a majority of Iraqis to participate in that. And that is key to getting control of Falluja. But even if that happens -- and a military analyst last hour said this is a battle that may last five days, it may last five weeks. But even if you're successful in Falluja, how long are you from the prospect of gaining control over the country when you consider the rest of the Sunni Triangle, places like Baghdad and the town of Ramadi nearby?

KHALIL: Bill, there's about 22 Sunni towns and cities which are -- need to be re-taken under Iraqi government control for elections to be successful. My view is that, worse than not having elections at all, delaying them in January, is having elections in which only 70 percent or 75 percent of the population participating. That is, the Sunnis not participating.

It would create an illegitimate government. And it's better to delay it in that case. So you need to retake those towns and cities, but, more importantly, you need to stabilize them in the second step. And then Iraqi forces become very important in their job to set up the conditions to allow the Sunnis to come out and participate in the election.

HEMMER: Peter Khalil from the Saban Center in D.C. Thank you for your time this morning.

KHALIL: Thank you, Bill.

HEMMER: Kelly.

WALLACE: Thanks, Bill.

Turning our attention to the Supreme Court. With chief justice of the United States, William Rehnquist, off the bench for cancer treatment, the high court's dynamic has changed. National correspondent Bob Franken is live in Washington with more on that.

And Bob, how has Rehnquist's illness affected the dynamic of the court?

BOB FRANKEN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, first of all, it certainly put a lot of attention on the possibility of succession, an issue that didn't come up in the campaign as much as many had hoped. We're going to watch this morning to see if there is a big surprise and he reappears on the bench, although that's considered unlikely, as arguments resume.

The internal workings of the court have been quite significantly influenced. Rehnquist, although he is somebody who has always been controversial on the outside, has been known as a man who created collegiality. Quite the conciliator, somebody who worked very much on the personal dynamics and saw to it that decisions did not necessarily cause a lack of friendship on the part of the justices.

When you talk to the justices, as you get to do every once in a while, they talk about the fact how each of them likes each other so much in spite of the fact that they are so oftentimes fragmented on their beliefs. So there is that.

There is also, of course, the unavoidable fact that there is discussion about a successor. And we should point out that there has been no resignation, no retirement, nothing yet to suggest that there's actually going to be one. But of course, Chief Justice Rehnquist is quite ill. He has been participating in the conferences we're told from his home, with the help of his chief clerk. But he has not been here for the Friday discussion.

He is participating, we are told, in the formation of opinions that are going to be coming out. But there is also the talk about successors and all kinds of scenarios.

Among the scenarios that's been discussed for a long time is the elevation of one of the sitting justice and the discussion that possibly that would be Clarence Thomas, which, of course, would create quite a controversy when that confirmation nomination got to Capitol Hill. You'll remember that there was one the first time around.

There was also some speculation about others who might replace the chief justice if he stepped down. The names such as the current White House counsel, Alberto Gonzalez, although he, himself, is controversial.

Also discussion about a recess appointment. That would be the president deciding to put somebody in while Congress was not meeting, as it is not now meeting, who would hold the office until the end of the congressional term, which would be late in 2006.

All of those are being discussed. As a matter of fact, there's a case that could be decided very soon at the Supreme Court about an appellate judge who got a recess from President Bush. Lots going on, lots of discussions about possibly an internal appointment of chief justice, if there is an opening, possibilities of others.

The recess appointments, by the way, there have been three in modern times, all by President Eisenhower, including the chief justice, Earl Warren. Lots of speculation, all of it based on something we don't know is fact yet, Kelly, and that is whether Rehnquist will become the first justice to leave the court in a long time.

WALLACE: All right. Bob Franken with lots of speculation outside the U.S. Supreme Court. Bob, great to see you. Thanks so much -- Bill.

HEMMER: About 12 minutes past the hour now. Back to weather and Chad Myers at the CNN Center.

It's blowing in here, autumn, that is. Hey, Chad. How are you?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: You need to close the door, I'm afraid, Bill. And close all the windows, as well.

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HEMMER: All right. Chad, thanks. We'll continue to watch that.

WALLACE: Looking nice and warm out West there.

Well, still to come here on AMERICAN MORNING, why does the Scott Peterson jury want to see a certain piece of evidence again? We'll ask a former prosecutor what he thinks.

HEMMER: Also, UNICEF using star power to try and bring more attention to the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Actress Mia Farrow is our guest in a moment here from Africa.

WALLACE: And a dip in the road leads to a dip in the pool and a very lucky rescue for a tractor driver. That's all ahead right here on AMERICAN MORNING.

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WALLACE: Jurors deciding the double murder case against Scott Peterson will be back at work today. The panel deliberated three days last week and was sequestered over the weekend. Dean Johnson, former San Mateo County prosecutor, joins us now from Redwood City, California.

Dean Johnson, good to see you. Thanks for being with us.

DEAN JOHNSON, FMR. SAN MATEO COUNTY PROSECUTOR: Thank you. Good morning.

WALLACE: Well, as you know, the jury has asked to see Scott Peterson's boat today. This is the boat that prosecutors charge he used to dump wife Laci's body. Now, this is after the jury has already looked at the search warrant about his house and the warehouse. What do you think this all means?

JOHNSON: Well, I think there's a pattern here. It seems that this jury has decided to very systematically trace Laci's steps on that fateful morning.

They started looking at evidence related to the bedroom, a clothes hamper and such. They then seemed to move to the kitchen of the Peterson residence. And now it appears that they have moved out of the house and are looking at the boat, which suggests that they are at least entertaining the possibilities that Laci, herself, was taken out of the house and put in the boat on that fateful day.

WALLACE: The jury obviously deliberating three days, going into the fourth day. The longer the jury is out, which side is it believed to help more, the defense or the prosecution?

JOHNSON: Oh, I think the conventional courthouse wisdom is that a long verdict in a homicide case favors the prosecution. But I don't think you can draw any conclusions in this case.

Remember, this is a unique case, probably the most scrutinized trial in history. This jury knows that Scott Peterson's life is at stake, that justice for Laci Peterson is at stake, and they know that the whole world is watching will be second-guessing everything they do. So I think they're going to take a fairly long time to make sure that they've done the right thing.

WALLACE: Tell us a little bit about jury person number 11. Juror number 11, who is supposed to have elective surgery this week, which means if that juror has to leave for surgery, that juror would have to be replaced by an alternate, is that right?

JOHNSON: Well, that's true. And that would mean that they can't just start in midstream with a new juror. They have to go back to the beginning and start deliberations all over again.

That's one of two critical dates that's coming up, the juror's surgery, and also the Thursday holiday. I think given those two critical dates, the jury is probably wanting to wind this case up some time this week, possibly Wednesday, before the holiday.

WALLACE: And tell us a little bit about juror number five, the foreperson of this jury. We understand 19 notebooks filled with details. What is the sense of how this foreperson is conducting deliberations behind had scenes?

JOHNSON: Well, you know, we knew that juror number five would probably be the foreperson, certainly the jury leader. He is a very meticulous note-taker. He has volumes and volumes of notes.

He also happens to be both a lawyer and a doctor. The betting here is that this juror is going to be, at this point, a pro- prosecution juror partly because he's so meticulous.

And remember that the primary defense witness was a medical expert who just absolutely melted down on the stand. And this juror, being so meticulous and himself being a doctor, I think is going to have no patience with sloppy medical work.

WALLACE: What else are you going to expect from this jury? You're likely to hear them want to hear some read-backs of witness testimony, more exhibits? What is your sense of what we can expect in the jury in the coming days?

JOHNSON: Well, if they follow their continuing pattern, I would expect they would want to look at photographs of the bay to look at the geography of where the bodies were recovered. And we may also begin to hear them asking for the read-back of testimony of whatever witnesses they think are critical.

WALLACE: All right. Dean Johnson, we'll be watching and talking to you. Thanks so much. Dean Johnson, former San Mateo County prosecutor. Great to talk to you -- Bill.

HEMMER: Going to get a break here in a moment.

U.S. Marines waiting now for the final command to attack Falluja. We'll take you there live in a moment to find out what's happening now. Almost sundown in Iraq.

And Paula Radcliffe, the winner of the New York City Marathon 2004, a thrilling finish. A close finish, especially with all the baggage she was carrying from the games in Athens. We'll talk to her about it in a moment on AMERICAN MORNING.

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HEMMER: All right. Back to Jack.

Welcome back.

CAFFERTY: It's Nevada, by the way.

WALLACE: OK. We're debating about Nevada, Nevada.

CAFFERTY: Nevada.

WALLACE: Nevada.

CAFFERTY: The conservative wing of the Republican Party turned out in big numbers to help President Bush to a second term in last week's elections. Is there a debt to the conservatives? And if so, what will the "thank you" note look like? How far will the president go to repay his debt to conservatives is the question.

Carolyn writes: "As a true conservative, I hope that Bush will look at the real issues confronting America and the world: what needs to be done in Iraq, how we'll stop terrorism, how will we compete with China for our own jobs? What will we do about the fact that Putin is moving Russia back toward a dictatorship? I hope Bush will stay away from religious issues."

Randy in Commack, New York: "Bush won't repay any debts. These far right conservative issues are too valuable to resolve. They will stay unresolved in order to be used in the next election."

Interesting.

Jim: "The gay marriage amendment is a red herring. Karl Rove will offer Pat Robertson's folks this to take their minds off abortion. Pretty shrewd."

And Christine writes: "It is clear that there is a lull in the political world right now, and this question is evidence of that."

Touche, Christine.

WALLACE: Well, you know, we're trying to keep political discussion going a week after the election.

CAFFERTY: Yes. Christine is right.

WALLACE: Christine...

CAFFERTY: It's pretty lame.

HEMMER: Thank you, Jack.

CAFFERTY: Yes.

HEMMER: Let's get a shot now of "90-Second Pop" in a moment on a Monday morning.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) (MUSIC)

HEMMER (voice-over): Is there anything worse than being insulted, humiliated and taken advantage of by your boss? Yes, there is something even worse.

And the four comics competing for a dream job, and their auditions broadcast live on TV.

Stay with us on CNN.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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